Tuesday 12/3/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#3 Hitsville	He was second best last time out behind an easy winner who paid $2.20, so I think that race might hold up OK against this group that doesn't seem to have anyone quite like that lined up. Tactical pace makes sense at what might be an OK price.
#2 Doctor Nash	Wouldn't be a surprise to see him handle these while racing up close throughout, but I am worried he's going to be overbet with at least a mild class question to answer. Capable underlay?
#4 Randello	If the bookend runners both try to flash speed, this one could be in line for a pretty nice trip while racing just a few lengths off the splits. Overlooked for a share?
Race Summary	Hitsville might get a decent run of things behind a couple of potential pace horses, and I think his last running line might be a touch better than it looks when chasing a runaway winner.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Grace and Glory	She is a little bit of a mystery on class after failing to hang at this level at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but I'm guessing she's going to be an OK fit here, and she could be in line for a perfect pressing trip to get the jump on finishing threats.
#5 Express Fashion	She's a really good fit if you forgive her for the stakes try last time out, and she has an occasional tactical ability if she needs to adapt to a modest early tempo.
#7 Secret Operation	Nothing to write home about in the last couple tries, but something like the three-back run at Hawthorne might do the trick here, and I wonder if she just cycled out of form a little bit off that run. Not sure the pace is going to be enough to get her home, but she can be along for a piece.
Race Summary	Grace and Glory should get the winning trip while stepping back into allowance company on a circuit switch that connects at a pretty solid rate.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#5 Gray Royality	Nothing but reliable efforts on her page, and she should get another tactical trip with these bunch today. Not sure we're getting the 5/1 ML offering, but I could see her being a bit more appealing on the tote than the last few times.
#4 Izzy's Monster	She's another with honest finishing efforts, and she has enough positional pace to find a similar trip to the top choice if the race flow calls for it. One of the ones in a fun race.
#1 It'sfiftyshadetime	Her form figures to bounce back in a hurry while getting back over to the main track, and this team has done good work with these claim-to-starter types in the past. Enough to like.
Race Summary	Think you can make a decent case for several logical players, so I'm curious to see how they sort themselves out on the board. Gray Royality is one of those more obvious runners -- would probably be OK settling there at 3/1 or 7/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#4 SPINNING HEART (9-5)	Piling up the checks, can upgrade to a win with duplicate of prior dirt route.
#5 RENARD (6-1)	Stablemate of top one shows steady works; dam was 12-65 and earned $295k.
#7 I CAN DO MAGIC (5-2)	Has speed and gets class relief for 19-percent sprint-to-route barn.
Race Summary	SPINNING HEART ran to a bullet workout preceding his first start at Parx and got up to finish second at 6F. He raced 3-wide the last time he ran long on the dirt and finished second at Hawthorne to favorite Cat On Time (8/2-2-0, $66k), who won an allowance race at Miami Valley in his last start. He makes his second start for Ness and warrants a win and place wager as today’s Best Bet.

Parx - Race #2

#2 RECKELESS PLACE (3-1)	Appears rounding to winning effort in a dreadful field.
#6 SPOTTED BULL (5-1)	Disappointed in latest but can’t be discounted off prior running lines.
#1 RAHMER (2-1)	Pressed through soft fractions and tired, can use his speed well again.
Race Summary	The field is a combined 0-for-50 since the June 3 eligibility cutoff date, making RECKLESS PLACE all the more formidable. His speed figures have improved in three starts with Lasix and he ‘advanced inside and finished well’ when second in a shorter sprint last out. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #4

#5 WIKI LIO (8-1)	Bit of a wake-up call with blinkers removed, price shot for solid connections.
#6 MERRYCHILL (4-1)	Good long sprint and one-mile form at Parx, can be excused for latest.
#3 FAST GAL (9-2)	Changed tactics in last pair, could be back on the engine in here.
Race Summary	WIKI LIO showed little on short rest from post 10 at this level two starts back, but she shed the blinkers and made a 9th-to-3rd rail move in a faster-paced 6F sprint last out. She’s worth a longshot stab with an extra furlong to cover. Bet to win and place and play a 5/3,6,11/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 3	$2 Daily Double (Races 3-4) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $7,700 • Post: 7:50P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. COACH CALEY (IRE) is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COACH CALEY (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MONEYSLOT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	COACH CALEY (IRE)	5/2	5/2
3	MONEYSLOT	4/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	COACH CALEY (IRE)	7	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	63	63	42.6	45.1	42.1
1	TEST YOUR FAITH	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	44	54.6	40.6	33.1
2	SNOWBIRD	2	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	49	39	42.9	35.8	25.3
3	MONEYSLOT	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	54	36.4	44.0	39.5
6	JANES HOPE	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	13	81.5	21.8	11.3
8	RAG TOWN	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	30	53.6	12.0	0.0
4	SUNSET VIBES	4	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	53	50.2	32.2	25.7
5	PAUL'S TRICKY TALE	5	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	48	41	30.2	26.0	13.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park
PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race 2	2nd Half Early Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta 1st Leg .50 Pick 4
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 58 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 12:33
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * HARDY BOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GIMME MONEY: Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DESERT PUNK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	HARDY BOY	7/2	7/2
7	GIMME MONEY	5/2	5/1
3	DESERT PUNK	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	GIMME MONEY	7	5/2	Stalker	61	44	64.6	46.0	41.0
3	DESERT PUNK	3	4/1	Stalker	53	42	55.0	41.0	34.5
4	HARDY BOY	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	65	56	58.8	52.0	49.0
2	RAIL RUNNER	2	8/5	Alternator/Trailer	55	52	21.3	38.2	30.2
1	RIG IT RIGHT	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	43.0	33.2	23.2
5	SGT MUSKETT	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.6	19.7	7.2
6	MARK ME IN	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	20.9	35.1	24.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 STORM BAYOU 5/2
# 2 TACTICAL ATTACK 2/1
# 3 KING BARON 12/1

I back STORM BAYOU here. Is a sharp contender based on figures put up recently under today's conditions. Boasts reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this field. Is a key contender - given the 84 speed fig from his most recent race. TACTICAL ATTACK - Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong speed figs (75 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Must be given consideration based on the very good speed figure recorded in the last contest. KING BARON - May best this group of horses in this race here, showing respectable figures of late. This animal has some longshot angles going for him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 SENT BY ANGELS (ML=5/1)
#8 SEEKING QUALITY (ML=3/1)


SENT BY ANGELS - This jock and conditioner's horses have been producing a lucrative return on investment. I look for this horse to sit off the pace and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the finish line. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier field than last time out at Del Mar. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Belvoir. Better beware this angle. SEEKING QUALITY - This racer could be tough this race, especially since Corbett rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. I took a look at this filly's finishes. She's almost always in the money. Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished runner up easily ahead of the 3rd place horse in her last outing. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a sharp effort on Nov 13th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 VEGAS CHARM (ML=5/2), #2 DAME LORRAINE (ML=6/1), #1 PRANCING MATILDA (ML=6/1),

VEGAS CHARM - Not likely that the speed rating she garnered on Oct 20th will be enough in this event. DAME LORRAINE - In any affair of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been sharp in sprint events lately. This runner didn't do too much last time finishing ninth. Don't see any hint of a reversal of fortune in today's event. Not probable that the speed rating she registered on October 27th will be enough in this contest. PRANCING MATILDA - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance contests of late. This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SENT BY ANGELS - I love betting on horses that have a big advantage over the rest of the field when it comes to the Power Rating. This one fits the bill.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 SENT BY ANGELS to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 12:32pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#6 SPOTTED BULL (ML=5/1)


SPOTTED BULL - Trainer, Serey, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but this could make a difference.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RAHMER (ML=2/1), #2 RECKLESS PLACE (ML=3/1), #3 SHANGHAI SUPERFLY (ML=4/1),

RAHMER - This mount just hasn't looked fit lately. RECKLESS PLACE - You figure that this animal is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top often. The bang up job last time out may knock this gelding off stride this time out. SHANGHAI SUPERFLY - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Didn't hit the board on Oct 24th at Penn National. Followed it up with another less than stellar outing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 SPOTTED BULL on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26400 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HITSVILLE 5/1
# 2 DOCTOR NASH 2/1
# 5 SILENCE 3/1

HITSVILLE is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Brown has a solid win percentage with horses running in dirt route races. Earning some nice profits in dirt route contests. This horse must be bet upon at the expected high odds. DOCTOR NASH - Is a contender - given the 89 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. The average class figure of 77 makes this horse hard to beat. SILENCE - He has been racing quite well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. Could wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today.