Wednesday 12/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 06:35 AM

Scott Shapiro: Turfway Wednesday Opening Night Pick 4 Analysis

December 3, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

For those looking for something to do in the evening over the next few months, the Turfway Park Holiday Meet is officially upon us starting Wednesday evening. The product is challenging, but rewards those that put in the work as much as any track I handicap regularly.

The 9-race opening night card kicks off at 5:55 PM eastern and amongst the solid wagering opportunities in Florence, KY is the Pick 4, which has a takeout rate of 14%. For those keeping score at home, this is quite lower than the rest of the year in the Blue Grass. With that in mind, let’s dive into the late sequence on opening night.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 O’Babe
Backups: 3 Docs Seven; 8 Abitibi

Forecast: There is a serious lack of early speed in this open $16k claimer for fillies and mares, which benefits 3-1-second choice #5 O’Babe most. The Minnesota-bred has been given a freshening after competing six times at Canterbury Park this summer, including a dominant 10-length score when we saw her last on September 21. The 5YO mare is not a need the lead type, but certainly is more than capable of going to the front and never looking back. Hopefully that is the case to kick off the first late Pick 4 of the meet.

#3 Docs Seven is just 1 for 9 over this surface, but has some tactical speed and attracts Luan Machado. I prefer her underneath, but at 10-1 I will include as a backup. #8 Abitibi has shown more of an affinity for the Turfway Park all-weather in her career and makes a ton of sense on paper, but may be compromised by the lack of pace. If they happen to go at it early though, she is definitely the likeliest to get to the wire first.

Race 7:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Oscargot; 4 Hope Joe’s Right
Backups: None

Forecast: A MSW event at a ten-furlongs is up next where I like #2 Oscargot most. The Conor Murphy trainee has never competed over an all-weather surface, but has been at his best thus far over the lawn. Last out he was part of a mad scramble late in a 1 1/8-mile turf affair at Churchill Downs where I thought he fought on pretty well to finish third at nearly 10-1 odds. He should be ready for a career best in his third start off over a year layoff and draws favorably to the inside.

#4 Hope Joe’s Right is intriguing as well. The Klimt gelding is another runner that has never raced over the synthetic, but it is noteworthy that trainer Joe Sharp owns this horse and could easily put him back in for a tag. Instead, he chooses to protect the 3YO and give him a shot at the 1 1/4-miles. I will give him one shot in Florence.

Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Forgotten Peace
Backups: None

Forecast: The last time #2 Forgotten Peace was at Turfway Park things did not go so well. The daughter of Jersey Town saved ground early as the 2-1-second choice in a similar spot, but was empty when the real running started. Trainer Tim Girten gave the 8YO mare time after the disappointing run last November and she has been nearly perfect since. It would normally be fair to question if maybe she was unable to translate her form at Presque Isle to Turfway Park, but she ran very well in her only other start over this course in December ’22. The Oklahoma-bred (like myself) comes into this spot in great form, has won 15 of 36 in her career, and should handle these relatively easily with a clean voyage under Abel Cedillo.

Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2 Beautiful Summer; 3 Donate Life; 4 Wildwood Adios; 5 Harmonica; 7 Italian Ivy; 9 Ain’t No Other
Backups: None

Forecast: I am not in love with the favorites in the finale where #6 Trotter is listed as the 9-5-morning line choice. The Cross Traffic filly makes her first start off the claim for trainer Larry Rivelli after a fourth-place effort over the sloppy going at Churchill Downs on Halloween. Rivelli is 5 for 17 over the last year with runners making their first start off the claim, so he is obviously highly capable, but this seems like an odd spot to choose five weeks after spending $30k for her in Louisville. Sure, the purses here are outstanding, but just one published work since seems less than ideal. I like second choice #8 Camp Akeela less. The Laoban filly is just 1 for 12 and has been a disappointment for trainer Tom Amoss and one of his top owners, Joel Politi. The start over the all-weather at this price tag seems to be nothing more than a dart throw. I will toss them both, spread fairly deep, and hope to catch a big one to close out the evening.

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 06:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#2 Quick Recovery	Typically stand against types like this who tend to cough up a few lengths in the final call every time they run, but she looks like the controlling pace in a race without any other serious early burn. Could be gone.
#7 Positively	She's getting a bit short on excuses after multiple races in which she has been in striking position in the final eighth but failed to seal the deal, and it's easy to see something similar happening today. Wouldn't be a surprise, but I'd want pretty much all of that 5/1 ML offering on the win end.
#1 Lime Tree	Thought we'd see a little bit better from her last out, but that running line leaves her some room for obvious improvement. Another who has had her chances, but the inside draw might lead to a pretty cozy trip today.
Race Summary	Quick Recovery is always a threat to stop late, but I think she can control the tempo against this modest group today and could get brave if she doesn't take too much pressure.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Kiss Me Quick	Not much finishing punch lined up in here, and there are a few lines on her page that suggest she might be able to settle just in behind the speed and try to get past some one-paced runners late. Price might be OK.
#2 Tierney	She makes a lot of sense in here, but she is also riding a string of five consecutive runner-up finishes, and her tendency to go just a tiny bit flat in the final yards keeps costing her and might again today.
#5 Kiss Valentina	She's too cheap at first glance after a dull run when stepping to this level last time out, but I also think she's better than that run indicates, so there might be some room for improvement today at a nice price.
Race Summary	Kiss Me Quick could at least be finishing with a little bit of enthusiasm late, and that gives her a chance to punch past in a spot full of horses who want to flatten out late.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 Simply Valid	He's not a super-serious early burner, but neither are the rest of these, so there is at least some chance he'll flash dangerous pace from the fence and forget to look back. Seems all or nothing here.
#2 Blue Max	He just missed scoring a fourth in a row last out when just missing at this level in his local debut, and that kind of effort and overall consistency makes him an obvious threat at what I worry will become a short price.
#7 Excitement	He has to turn the tables on Blue Max from that last one, and I'm worried he's going to be a bit overbet. He's obviously competitive at this kind of level, but he has also lost three of the four allowance starts on his page -- not totally sure what to do with him, but I think I'm inclined to stand against.
Race Summary	Simply Valid might have enough pace to control the tempo from the fence and could see this one out if nobody hassles him too early. Consider #6 Elliot the Dragon with reliable form, too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 06:38 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#8 TROPIC STORM (5-1)	Takes some catching in bid for first win this year, good value play.
#1 RUN CORY RUN (5-2)	Upgraded in-the-money finishes into back-to-back wins, enters new barn.
#7 DR. BAYTER (9-2)	Rallied wide at 7F against next-out repeat winner two starts back.
Race Summary	TROPIC STORM tries to recapture his form from last year, when he earned $80k to become a six-figure earner at age 4. The son of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford tries this distance for the first time in his third start off the claim by Ness. He should lead a long way if he avoids a troubled start like his last start at 6F. Bet to win and place and play 8-1, 8-7 and 1-8 exactas.

Parx - Race #3

#2 CAUTELOSO (3-1)	Fanned wide, stayed wide against winning debut favorite last out.
#4 FOUR DAYS EARLY (9-5)	Gets class relief, stretches out, should get ample pace flow.
#5 MERGING TRAFFIC (9-2)	Steady check-getter has plenty of route experience.
Race Summary	CAUTELOSO improved when stretched out in distance three starts back, had trouble in a well-bet try last out and meets several stretch-out sprinters. He has yet to finish 1-2 in 15 starts, but today could be the day. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #5

#6 QUEEN CADENCE (10-1)	Right set-up, right price in her bid to join the $200,000 Club.
#1 MARION GRACE (7-2)	Loves Parx, runs well fresh, often goes post-ward at a short price.
#2 GLADRIEL (4-1)	Well-traveled 4yo won 3 of her last four starts and was claimed by hot barn.
Race Summary	QUEEN CADENCE Rallied for minor awards at this level in her last two sprints at Parx, the latest while following the move of the 8-to-5 winner. She gets plenty of pace to rally into in this spot and is worth a price stab at 10-1 on the morning line. Bet to win and place and play 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 and 1-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park
PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race 2	2nd Half Early Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta 1st Leg .50 Pick 4
Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $31,500 • Post: 12:33
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 4, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PLAYTHEMARKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LAUGH OF THE PARTY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MR RIGGER: Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TEE BREAKER: Horse's average winning distance is within half a fur long of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	PLAYTHEMARKER	9/5	9/2
1	LAUGH OF THE PARTY	8/1	5/1
3	MR RIGGER	7/2	7/1
6	TEE BREAKER	3/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LAUGH OF THE PARTY	1	8/1	Front-runner	65	69	91.3	60.1	55.6
3	MR RIGGER	3	7/2	Front-runner	70	70	74.2	62.0	54.0
2	OUR ISLAND GIRL	2	15/1	Stalker	68	60	50.3	56.6	47.6
5	PLAYTHEMARKER	5	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	82	73	83.2	64.8	60.8
6	TEE BREAKER	6	3/2	Alternator/Stalker	74	69	51.0	62.8	54.8
4	M G M'S LUCKY	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	66	75.5	59.2	51.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park
PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race 1	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $30,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $29,900 • Post: 5:55P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $20,000 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GOLDENTOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LIVEHAPPY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/sur face. TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	GOLDENTOWN	9/2	9/2
3	LIVEHAPPY	7/2	9/2
13	TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF	5/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	ALADANTE	11	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	65.4	11.4	0.0
4	C V RONIN LEGACY	4	20/1	Front-runner	67	63	48.3	38.9	19.9
2	KING OF THE PARTY	2	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	LIVEHAPPY	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	72	87.6	65.2	57.2
7	WESTEROS	7	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	70	61.0	59.6	45.6
1	FLY J'S FUNTASTIC	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	60.1	57.2	45.7
5	GOLDENTOWN	5	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	87	84	50.0	57.7	50.2
14	HARBOUR BRIDGE	14	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	74	72	39.5	65.4	55.9
13	TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF	13	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	42.7	79.6	77.1
10	SNOW KING	10	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	77	20.9	61.6	51.1
9	BEARS' D	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.3	31.7	11.2
6	CIAO TOMMASO	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.2	55.0	37.0

Unknown Running Style: WARHEADED (12/1) [Jockey: Beschizza Adam - Trainer: Kenneally Eddie], MO JOKE (30/1) [Jockey: Felix Julio E - Trainer: Axmaker Peter M].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Remington Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:30pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#2 MI SATURDAY (ML=5/2)
#7 YOUGOTTHISJR (ML=7/2)

MI SATURDAY - With no PP lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Offolter has a +72 pct ROI clip with first-time-starters. First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in his favor. YOUGOTTHISJR - This equine has the pace, and no one may be able to keep up with him. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid race on November 13th. This equine collects a lot of money per start. Tops in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DA CHIEF (ML=4/1), #5 K Q SPIRIT (ML=6/1), #4 TOUGH TROOPER (ML=8/1),

DA CHIEF - 4/1 is just not enough of a price to take on this entrant. K Q SPIRIT - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint race in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. Hasn't been close to winning at all of late. Finished fifth in his most recent race with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. TOUGH TROOPER - Don't figure that this horse has what it takes to win today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - YOUGOTTHISJR - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 50. He is the top bet here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 MI SATURDAY to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SOLEMN OATH 2/1
# 1 SECRET TEMPTATION 3/1
# 6 MORE RANSOM 5/1

I like SOLEMN OATH here. Lopez will almost certainly be able to get this mare to break out sharply in this race. Is a solid contender - given the 76 speed fig from her most recent race. She has garnered very good figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. SECRET TEMPTATION - This filly has been constatntly racing well in her latest outings. Will likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. MORE RANSOM - Dandy has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Overall, this conditioner has been profitable at this distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KLIMTOMANIAC 7/2
# 6 SAM'S PROMISE 9/5
# 7 COWBOY CAUSE 4/1

KLIMTOMANIAC looks to be a very good contender. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look quite good in this contest. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. Has to be considered versus this group of horses displaying strong figures lately and an average speed rating of 70 under similar conditions. SAM'S PROMISE - Should keep the impressive string of finish positions intact this time out. He has been racing admirably recently while recording sharp Speed Figures. COWBOY CAUSE - With a nice Equibase class rating average of 76, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this group of horses in this race. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-04-2024, 08:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#10 VALERIE BLUE (ML=9/2)
#2 QUICK RECOVERY (ML=5/2)
#7 POSITIVELY (ML=5/1)

VALERIE BLUE - Rider hops up on after getting to know the race horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good sign. Just missed hitting the board on November 2nd at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. With pretty good odds in today's race, she has my interest. This filly is number one in earnings per start. Give the once over to this horse in the saddling enclosure. QUICK RECOVERY - This filly is in first-rate condition right now. Ended up second last out and comes back quickly. That 63 fig this filly garnered in her last contest tells me she's a major player in today's event. POSITIVELY - Rode this thoroughbred on Nov 19th and Batista is right back in the irons in today's contest. This filly is in nice physical condition. Finished third on November 19th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 QUEEN'S DESIRE (ML=7/2), #1 LIME TREE (ML=6/1),

QUEEN'S DESIRE - Not easy to play any less than sharp equine in a sprint race if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. This horse ran a somewhat easily forgotten rating last out. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's race running that figure. LIME TREE - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she fails frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #10 VALERIE BLUE to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,7,10] with [2,7,10] with [1,2,3,7,10] with [1,2,3,7,10] Total Cost: $36

Wednesday 12/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 12/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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