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Oaklawn Meet Betmix Stats Primer

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December 5, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Oaklawn kicks off its 65-day racing season Friday in Hot Springs with a card that features the Advent Stakes. Important dates include $1 million Southwest (Jan. 25), $1.25 million Rebel (Feb. 22), $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (March 29), $1.25 million Apple Blossom (April 12) and $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap (April 19). Friday-Saturday racing makes up December, while Friday-Saturday-Sunday racing weeks are the norm after the first of the year with holiday exceptions.

To get you set handicapping this season in Arkansas, let’s dig into some key stats from the Betmix database.

Favorites Overall
33.5% (2023-’24)
34.5% (2022-’23)
36.2% (2021-’22)

Favorites Sprints
35.9% (2023-’24)
34.3% (2022-’23)
35.5% (2021-’22)

Favorites Routes
29.6% (2023-’24)
34.6% (2022-’23)
37.3% (2021-’22)

Average Win Odds Overall
6.4-1 (2023-’24)
5.8-1 (2022-’23)
5.8-1 (2021-’22)

Average Win Odds Sprints
5.9-1 (2023-’24)
5.5-1 (2022-’23)
5.7-1 (2021-’22)

Average Win Odds Routes
7.2-1 (2023-’24)
6.1-1 (2022-’23)
5.8-1 (2021-’22)

Top Jockeys 2023-‘24
Cristian Torres 82 wins (18% sprints, 18% routes)
Keith Asmussen 58 wins (18% sprints, 12% routes)
Francisco Arrieta 49 wins (12% sprints, 14% routes)
Rafael Bejarano 48 wins (17% sprints, 13% routes)
Emmanuel Esquivel 45 wins (11% sprints, 19% routes)
Ricardo Santana 39 wins (19% sprints, 13% routes)
Ramon Vazquez 39 wins (13% sprints, 10% routes)

Top Trainers 2023-‘24
Steve Asmussen 71 wins (18% sprints, 12% routes)
Kenny McPeek 30 wins (33% sprints, 23% routes)
Chris Hartman 28 wins (24% sprints, 10% routes)
Robertino Diodoro 27 wins (19% sprints, 17% routes)
Brad Cox 26 wins (29% sprints, 24% routes)
Ron Moquett 22 wins (13% sprints, 7% routes)
Cipriano Contreras 22 wins (25% sprints, 28% routes)
Randy Morse 21 wins (20% sprints, 11% routes)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #7

#8 Coffee County	Think he ran deceptively well a couple times here last season, and has some ability to relax off the pace and finish -- a big benefit in a race with multiple horses who need the lead for their best.
#2 Calicoco	Bit worried the price is going to get short, especially with a couple other fairly committed pace types signed on. Obviously his better stuff would land this, but I don't think he's getting a very favorable race shape on paper. Tough call. I respect what he's capable of, but he's not for me today.
#6 Deer Crossing	He's an honest enough midpack finisher and might get a pretty dreamy run here while in behind a few pace players but still getting the jump on any deeper threats.
Race Summary	Coffee County should get a fair pace to kick at, and he's likely to offer a decent price in a race with a few other capable names likely to take some cash. #9 Syvester is working with a long layoff line but left in solid form last year.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#2 Smart N Intuitive	He might be a slight cut below most of these, but there just isn't much finishing punch on the page in this spot, and he at least owns a few running lines that prove he can get past horses. Price chance.
#9 Like This	He draws well to spy the pace here with several other forward players lined up underneath him. Guessing he'll get something out of the Delta comeback. Two deep race for me.
#4 Over and Ollie	He has been in with a couple of OK groups this year, and he's another who has some ability to rate and might get a decent tracking trip. In the mix, but worried that he will take some cash while being a bit unreliable.
Race Summary	Smart N Intuitive should be a solid price in here, and I'm hoping a decent pace develops to give him a chance to come running late. Like This might also find a good spot to finish, and he should be in line for a step forward off the comeback run.

Fair Grounds - Race #2

#7 Classic Deal	Dropper made a mild move with special weight company at Delta before going flat in the lane, but that was a noticeable step in the right direction after the dull debut run, and this softer group might be just what she needs to graduate today.
#5 Drama Queenie	Nothing but pace-and-fade tries from the Midwest on her page so far, but she gets in with Louisiana-bred friends for the first time today while looking likely to find a perfect spot to attack the rail pace from the start. Could be tempted to land here if the difference in the prices between the top pair gets too big.
#2 Strummin Mary	Not a whole lot of compelling form on her page, but she did run an OK race early in the meet here last year in a similar spot, so maybe she'll fire fresh with the change of scenery -- but even that might only land her a share.
Race Summary	Classic Deal and Drama Queenie look like the right pair in here, but the former figures tough on the drop while in line for a good trip tracking a couple of unreliable pace players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#1 BETTER THAN BETTER (7-2)	Made 10th-to-2nd move in lone turf try thus far at the same distance.
#3 LA CANTERA (5-2)	Joseph claim made moves in all three starts, returns off 10-week layoff.
#7 MORE FOR SURE (2-1)	Gets Irad to ride, gets blinkers and new barn checks all the right boxes.
Race Summary	BETTER THAN BETTER was second best in the same spot two starts ago, rallying inside while unable to match the 4-wide run of the winner. She validated that improved effort with a good try in MSW company last out. Bet to win and place and play a 1,3/1,3,7/ALL trifecta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 BLUE SPEARMAN (6-1)	Excellent form, met fleet-footed winner of four straight, tempting price.
#5 ZIO LORENZO (8-5)	Can’t seem to get out of her own way at the break, drops below claim level.
#7 HAY MOON (8-1)	Steps up off D’Angelo claim, adds value to gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	BLUE SPEARMAN and ZIO LORENZO flip-flopped runner-up finishes behind Sultan the Great (4-8, $77k), a winner of four consecutive races. But BLUE SPEARMAN offers much better value in the class-dropping rematch against the morning-line favorite who continues to be plagued by troubled starts. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-7 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#5 TEMPO RIDE (6-1)	Recent work, equipment change and company line signal upset possibility.
#6 SKULL HONOR (9-5)	Angled 5-wide for stretch drive but was out-kicked by rallying longshot.
#3 PREMIADO (5-2)	Second off 4-wide trips at this distance in last two go-rounds.
Race Summary	TEMPO RIDE zipped 3F in :34-3/5 in a morning workout last Friday, presumably with blinkers on. He was no match for stakes-placed Tank when last seen six weeks ago, but could awaken on the big class drop. Bet to win and place and play 5-3, 5-6 and 6-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 64 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 8:05P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * COUNTY 2: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. F LAMBOYANT EAGLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	COUNTY 2	8/1	3/2
6	FLAMBOYANT EAGLE	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JTF MARSHAL	1	5/1	Slow	48	26	7.4	0.0	0.0
2	ARNIKA	2	15/1	Average	0	0	5.8	0.0	0.0
3	MAGIC MARLEY B	3	20/1	Slow	0	0	6.4	0.0	0.0
4	COUNTY 2	4	8/1	Slow	65	59	7.4	0.0	0.0
5	SISTER EAGLE	5	10/1	Slow	0	0	7.0	0.0	0.0
6	FLAMBOYANT EAGLE	6	3/1	Slow	60	34	8.7	0.0	0.0
8	LEAVING SEPERATELY	8	12/1	Average	43	46	5.5	0.0	0.0
9	DOLENS BOY	9	5/2	Slow	0	0	6.3	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CHILITOS TEMPTING GL (4/1) [Jockey: Vivanco Luis L - Trainer: Sanchez Jose].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 6	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races6-7)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 6-8)
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 7:10P
(INCLUDES UP TO $1,400 LTBASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TENSAS LU LU: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Hor se ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUZY DOLL'S READY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CAJUN CATALINA: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
5	TENSAS LU LU	9/2	5/1
6	SUZY DOLL'S READY	8/1	5/1
1	CAJUN CATALINA	2/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TENSAS LU LU	5	9/2	Front-runner	78	78	77.6	76.8	70.8
1	CAJUN CATALINA	1	2/1	Front-runner	80	80	76.4	59.6	53.1
7	MADELYN'S HIT	7	7/2	Front-runner	82	74	70.4	57.6	45.1
6	SUZY DOLL'S READY	6	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	74	80.2	71.4	66.9
2	MOION	2	6/1	Stalker	77	68	53.8	65.8	56.3
8	GOTTEMINABIND	8	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	72	35.0	65.0	50.0
9	DOLLY'S GUITAR	9	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	67	67.4	64.0	53.0
4	MISS TARGET	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	74	62.2	62.8	50.3
3	HOT PATOOTIE	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	69	40.0	54.0	43.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 QUICK HAMMER 5/2
# 2 UNCLE GEORGE 3/1
# 6 MUSICAL HEART 12/1

QUICK HAMMER is my choice. Potts has him trained admirably to break quickly out of the gate. Has to be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Ran a strong last race. UNCLE GEORGE - The Equibase Speed Figure of 85 from his latest race looks decent in here. Ought to be used in the exotic offerings. MUSICAL HEART - Vaunts solid Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. Has raced very well in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#8 WAMPY (ML=6/1)
#3 WARRIORS JEWEL (ML=7/2)
#9 CASTASPELLA (ML=3/1)


WAMPY - Stalking speed. My friends and I like this thoroughbred. Moves back to a trip at which she ran a speed rating good enough to make her a contender today. Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the capability to make her presence felt. WARRIORS JEWEL - The return on investment when Ramos and Kravets team up is outstanding. This filly is almost always on the board. This animal is at the top in earnings per start. She looks good in today's event. CASTASPELLA - I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last workout was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. Jock hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last race out. That's always a good thing. The addition of Lasix might make this animal wake up and smell the coffee in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 INDEPENDENCE WAY (ML=5/2),

INDEPENDENCE WAY - This filly hasn't had any recent success in short distance races. Not easy to wager on her in this race. Hasn't been doing anything at all recently. Tough to put your money on this oft beaten public's top choice. Not much value.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 WAMPY to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16600 Class Rating: 52

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 QUINN ELIA 6/5
# 1 THE GODMOTHER 7/2
# 4 JUNE BELLE 3/1

QUINN ELIA could be the bet in here. Will almost certainly come out very solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Must be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. THE GODMOTHER - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Mendez ought to have this filly in excellent position to win the race. Bettors should feel comfortable with this choice given Mendez's recent gains at the window. JUNE BELLE - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of animals as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 107 Shawn Swartz Overnight S.

Rating:

#5 COASTAL JAZZ (ML=6/1)
#2 REDLINE (ML=2/1)
#7 ARMA D'ORO (ML=7/2)


COASTAL JAZZ - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Evans. REDLINE - Shipped in on November 14th to finish first here. Take right back again. This horse could be tough in today's race, especially since Mojica rode last out and now should be more familiar with this one. A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a strong effort is a good sign. ARMA D'ORO - My experience tells me to watch out for this animal in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 AMERICAN BLAZE (ML=4/1), #4 YOU'REINTHEARMYNOW (ML=8/1), #6 COASTAL KID (ML=8/1),

AMERICAN BLAZE - No pace in this affair to help this sustainer's chances. 96/92/82, are the lessening speed ratings for this runner. YOU'REINTHEARMYNOW - Hard to take this horse at the odds after the finish (eighth) in the last affair. COASTAL KID - Never really did much at all last time around the track on Nov 14th. Hard to play today. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 COASTAL JAZZ on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,7] with [2,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $36