Monday 12/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

December 9, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool begins in Race 5. The $1.00 Late
Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 Pm EST)

1-Verdun (4-1)-Makes the 2nd start off a sick scratch and the 4-year-old likes to get the lead and not look back. That plan could work with this post draw. Does know how to rally off cover if isn’t on the lead early on. Team Lachance entry could be sitting on a big try.
2-Rocknroll Runa A (4-1)-Does fit with this kind and the driver change to Jordan Stratton could make a winning difference. Beat the Invites the last time leaving from post 2, that was back in the fall and with a sharp steer could be in line for another picture.
5-Coaches Corner (9/5)-Has been off since 11-11 that was the 2nd leg of this series, and came 2nd by a nose. Qualified nicely at M1 on 11-30. Does great work at Yonkers winning 11 races and coming second 9 times in 22 starts. This is a tough race, but Jason Bartlett knows how to take a picture with this Engblom pupil.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Outlaw Man N (6-1)-Here is a chance for a price to get some juice in the Pick 4 payout. Took a month off and raced at Pocono versus NW 15K, went off at 8/5 and broke stride. Then faced NW 33000 at YR and raced evenly. Now drops, and with this post draw could be in play from start to finish.
3-Rockin Jukebox (5/2)-Missed by less than a length versus this kind on 12-2. Yannick Gingras takes the lines tonight and should have the Joe B trainee forwardly placed throughout.

Race 10 (10:00 PM ET)

2-Around Midnight (10-1)-The Laterza pupil performs better with a decent post draw, and the 2-hole qualifies. Can dance with this kind and Brent Holland should provide an aggressive steer at a juicy price.
3-The Bird Dance N (7/2)-Makes the 5th start for the Ruiz barn and this is the 5th appearance at Yonkers. Here is another who should benefit from an inside draw.
4-DP Realordeal (5/2)-Got a wide trip when facing $50k claimers and now drops. Gingras should get an up close seat versus this crew and is a main players with a smooth trip.

Race 11 (10:20 PM ET)

2-Maximus Red A (8/5)-This veteran still likes to win and beat the $40k claimers 2 back and now drops in for a $30k tag. Should have his way with these if 100% but can't completely trust that is the case.
6-I'm A Powerplay A (5-1)-This is the 3rd start for the Laterza barn off a claim and had post 8 in the previous 2 races. Made up a lot of ground in last but was aided by a hot pace. Looking for ANap to get off the gate here and might land on the point. Could upset at a square price if an aggressive steer works out.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,5/2,3/2,3,4/2,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:19 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#6 One Eyed Jasmine	Have some questions around all the rest in here, so willing to start off by giving this fresh face a look on the track ahead of this. The string of works seems decent enough on paper.
#2 Waves of Liberty	She's getting a little short on excuses after failing to seal the deal from good spots in the stretch on a few occasions, but she should find a good spot right near the top while being capable of something better than her last.
#3 Heavens Eureka	She held second after pressing and fading in the debut run, and there is some reasonable upside off that run for her today. Will need more late, but she feels like one of the ones.
Race Summary	One Eyed Jasmine makes her debut in a spot where most of them have shown little interest in gutting out the final furlong of a race, so maybe this new shooter will be the right one.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Streamsong	His form is all over the place, but he has a little positional pace in a race without a ton of speed, and he wasn't totally overmatched at this level a few times at Presque Isle Downs. Chance at a midrange price.
#5 Andy Can't	He was probably supposed to do something a bit better in that local debut last time out, but there is some room for him to improve with a race over the track. Still, wouldn't want to be here at too short a price.
#6 Timesatappin	Nothing yet from him in two comeback runs, but he was competitive here in some similar spots last season, so I'm willing to give him a little price look in hope he's ready to start coming into that kind of form.
Race Summary	Streamsong might offer an OK price in here while bringing a flat running line with him behind many of these, and I'm hoping his second spin over the track might produce something better.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#7 Color Bearer	Good effort last out to keep on after looking like a winner into the lane, and something similar should keep him in the frame again with this crew. Chance from close range.
#6 Playing for Keeps	Forward player should be in the mix the whole way here, and there appears to only be one other super serious pace player lined up. Chance to put that one away and score.
#3 Ironclad Alibi	Honest finisher might be a touch better going long right now, but he can probably get past some of these for a piece of this late.
Race Summary	Color Bearer might be an OK midrange price, and I'm hoping he can sustain his move just a bit better this time around. His fairly honest form stacks up well here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:19 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #3

#6 RUN SMITTY RUN (9-5)	Towers over field on paper, new barn is 7-for-23 in the last month.
#5 UNUSUAL WIN (5-1)	‘Responded when roused’ in romp at Arapahoe, third to repeater two back.
#2 AUTISM WARRIOR (8-1)	Can land share in this field despite poor record overall and at TuP.
Race Summary	RUN SMITTY RUN advanced 4-wide at the quarter pole but couldn’t stay with the fleet-footed 5-to-2 pace setter as the odds-on favorite. If you’re not scared by the class drop off the claim, you should cash a win ticket at a short price. Play 6-2 and 6-5 exactas for added value.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#2 ELECTROSTATIC (5-1)	Doesn’t shy from photo-finish camera, good value play on return to the lawn.
#1 COASTAL WATERS (3-1)	Ultra-consistent form, surged late to win at 7-1/2F and was claimed.
#6 WELLSWORT (4-1)	Finished first or second in last four turf miles before latest against better.
Race Summary	ELECTROSTATIC was in range through fast middle fractions at the $15,000 level but his eight-race, in-the-money streak ended. He sheds weight for a barn in the midst of an 18-for-74 run and broke his maiden on the turf, albeit in his July 2021 MSW debut. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#6 YOU ENJOY MYSELF (3-1)	Been stuck in ‘second’ gear most of year, gained late on fave in latest.
#1 FOREMAN (8-1)	Returns from cross-country trip with three more photo-finish wins on resume.
#2 BEDROCK (12-1)	Runs OK fresh, has 41/6-4-13 record on main track, re-claimed again.
Race Summary	YOU ENJOY MYSELF finished second in 5 of his last 7 sprints, throwing in a one-mile victory in between. He willingly pursued the favorite in a short field last out and can reward his loyal backers on the slight class drop. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:21 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 42 • Purse: $31,800 • Post: 3:04P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. WAVES OF LIBERTY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WAVES OF LIBERTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DA NCEHALL JUSTICE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GABADOST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designat ion. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEAVENS EUREKA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	WAVES OF LIBERTY	4/1	4/1
1	DANCEHALL JUSTICE	5/2	4/1
7	GABADOST	5/1	8/1
3	HEAVENS EUREKA	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HEAVENS EUREKA	3	9/2	Front-runner	42	29	73.9	27.5	21.0
1	DANCEHALL JUSTICE	1	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	54	48	57.2	34.1	30.1
7	GABADOST	7	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	49	31	46.1	29.9	22.4
2	WAVES OF LIBERTY	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	49	31	54.2	33.0	29.0
4	BIONIC SAINT	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.1	6.6	0.0
5	WATCH ME DADDY	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	35	47.1	25.0	16.5

Unknown Running Style: ONE EYED JASMINE (6/1) [Jockey: Diaz Angel I - Trainer: Rivera Nestor R].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:21 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
Claiming $8,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:42P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. (RAIL IS SET AT 14 FEET).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MARK OF VICTORY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CALY BALI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GI GIS MAP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). LEIPZIG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	MARK OF VICTORY	4/1	5/1
8	CALY BALI	6/1	5/1
3	GI GIS MAP	6/1	8/1
6	LEIPZIG	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	GI GIS MAP	3	6/1	Front-runner	73	69	85.4	62.6	56.6
5	VANDULIE	5	8/1	Front-runner	56	48	67.8	46.1	31.6
8	CALY BALI	8	6/1	Stalker	73	73	96.8	65.8	59.3
6	LEIPZIG	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	62	72.4	60.4	51.4
7	POCKET KNIFE	7	5/1	Trailer	60	61	91.0	65.4	53.9
4	MARK OF VICTORY	4	4/1	Trailer	72	68	61.6	68.0	65.0
1	LADY YELLOWSTONE	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	62	59.3	47.4	36.9
2	INTRUSIVE	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	45	58.8	58.8	42.8
9	CALIFORNIA DIVA	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	57	33.2	43.6	31.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race #2 - Post: 12:33pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#2 PEEKAY (ML=2/1)

PEEKAY - This thoroughbred could be tough this time around, especially since Juarez rode last out and now should be more familiar with this one. I figure that today's shorter distance should help this gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JMARK (ML=8/5), #5 ON YOUR LEFT (ML=3/1), #1 REYNALDO P. (ML=6/1),

JMARK - Not a good enough price on this one at the probable odds of 8/5. ON YOUR LEFT - Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a sprint event to be worth the risk at small odds in a sprint. REYNALDO P. - This animal just hasn't looked sharp of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 PEEKAY on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 52

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. ALLOWED 0 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $20,000 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MARY LOVES LOUIE 8/1
# 1 ENTENTE 8/5
# 2 NEZUKO 12/1

My selection in this race is MARY LOVES LOUIE and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Must be given a shot given the class of races run as of late. Over time, this conditioner has a respectable return on investment at this distance/surface. Expect this racer to be right there at the finish line versus these horses. ENTENTE - With a nice class rating average of 68, has one of the best class advantages in this group. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Servis running at this distance are the top in this group of horses in this race. NEZUKO - A solid 67 avg Equibase class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this field. Her chances to score are much better this time out facing this less demanding field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,700 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#7 JULIE'S FERRARI (ML=6/1)
#1 ONE MORE RING (ML=7/2)

JULIE'S FERRARI - This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. This gelding is in nice physical condition. Ran second on December 2nd. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last 2 races. I look for that positive trend to continue in today's race. Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this horse at the top of my list of contenders. ONE MORE RING - Mathes brings him right back. I suggest you stick with this live gelding. The November 12th race at Mountaineer Park was at a class level of (87). Dropping to a lower class rank significantly, so he should be in a good spot. After the contest aboard this horse on November 12th, the jock is going to 'know' the gelding much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KOOL KATHMANDU (ML=5/2), #2 MON CAMO (ML=3/1), #8 OWN THE TOWN (ML=6/1),

KOOL KATHMANDU - Didn't finish in the money on Nov 11th at Finger Lakes. Followed it up with another less than stellar outing. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced contender. MON CAMO - In the last race this runner finished third. Doesn't look good for his chances this time. Pace is so important, and this early speedster is going to have a speed battle on his hands. OWN THE TOWN - A pattern of dropping speed figures 66/62/51 for this mount.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 JULIE'S FERRARI to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-09-2024, 08:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 9, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 TEQUILA TIME 4/1
# 1 ATTILA THE DUN 7/2
# 4 GRAZEN BOY 2/1

I like TEQUILA TIME here. Has performed strongly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 84 avg speed rating. Is tough not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been very good - 84 avg - of late. This conditioner has the most respectable return on investment in this field with entries racing at this distance and surface. ATTILA THE DUN - Always seems to be right there at the finish. GRAZEN BOY - Win percentage one of the best in this group of animals. Very strong rider and trainer combo winning 23 percent of their races working together.