11-3-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Florida State at Boston College

The Seminoles look to take advantage of a Boston College team that is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games. Florida State is the pick (-14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (11/2)

Game 305-306: Akron at Miami (OH) (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Akron 64.651; Miami (OH) 76.904 Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 12 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 14 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Akron (+14 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Florida State at Boston College (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 103.579; Boston College 85.312 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 18 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Florida State by 14 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Tulsa at Central Florida (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 87.601; Central Florida 87.098 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1; 53 Vegas Line: Central Florida by 2; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB


Thursday, November 3, 2011
Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State 28, BOSTON COLLEGE 15
Mid-American Conference
MIAMI (OHIO) 35, Akron 12
Conference USA
Tulsa 29, UCF 20
FCS Non-Conference
SOUTH ALABAMA 33, Mississippi Valley State 9

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Thursday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Florida State at Boston College UNDER 45.5

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

30-11 run (12-1 last 13)

Akron +15

[Mr. IWS]

Sharpsides Investing
9-1 last 10 free plays

Bc +16

[Mr. IWS]

Fast Cash Eddie

miami OH - 14
over 45.5 fsu game
over 48.5 ucf game

[Mr. IWS]

Florida State at Boston College: What Bettors Need To Know

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (+14.5, 44)

THE STORY: Having No. 3 back under center has made all the difference for Florida State. E.J. Manuel aims to lead the surging Seminoles to a fourth straight win Thursday night against Boston College, which needs another strong finish to extend its bowl streak to 13 seasons. After going through a rough patch, Florida State has hit its stride thanks to Manuel, who has stabilized the offense since returning from a sprained shoulder three weeks ago. The Eagles, meanwhile, have struggled from the start. Boston College’s 28-17 win in Maryland was its first victory over an FBS opponent this season.

TV: ESPN 8:00 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: Florida State opened at -15.5 and was bet down to 14.5. The total has remained steady at 44 points.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (5-3, 3-2 ACC, 4-4 ATS): The Seminoles have won three straight by a combined score of 116-32. Manuel completed a pass to eight different receivers while throwing for 321 yards and two touchdowns in a 34-0 win over North Carolina State. Florida State also forced a season-high three turnovers last week and is now eighth in the nation in total defense (275.6 ypg).

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (2-6, 1-4 ACC, 3-5 ATS): Sophomore RB Rolandan Finch ran for 243 yards and two touchdowns in the win over woeful Maryland. Finch is playing because ACC preseason Player of the Year Montel Harris is out for the season with a knee injury. Harris’ absence is one reason the Eagles rank 107th in scoring offense (19.9 ppg). The defense (88th in the nation – 422 ypg) is led by star linebacker Luke Kuechly, who had 12 tackles and an interception last week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1) The Seminoles have scored at least 30 points in five straight games for the first time since 2002.

2) Boston College needs to win its final four games to become bowl eligible. It qualified last season by winning its final five games.

3) Kuechly (130) is on pace to break the NCAA single-season record of 193 tackles set by Texas Tech’s Lawrence Flugence in 1992.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Florida State 31, Boston College 14 – Manuel is heating up and the Eagles are 96th against the pass (252.3 ypg).

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (+14.5, 44)

We have to give FSU some credit. The team could have given up on its season after dropping three straight games after winning three in a row at the outset. The Noles lost all three of those games without QB EJ Manuel for at least pieces of all of those games. However, since that point, the garnet and gold have scored three wins by at least 25 points. Manuel is still battling nagging injuries, but he is getting the job done as a whole, and now, the team is sneaking around near the Top 25 again, and perhaps even a spot in the BCS isn’t totally out of the question if the squad can win out and get some help along the way. Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops has done a heck of a job with this unit this year. Sure, the two defeats against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Clemson Tigers were bad, but this unit still ranks No. 8 in the land in total defense at 277.1 yards per game and No. 12 in scoring at 16.9 points per game. If this unit can keep it up, the offense has enough talent to make the Seminoles a legitimate force again.

The Eagles are probably one of the worst teams in the AQ conferences. The good news is that they are coming off of a big win over the Maryland Terrapins, but the bad news is that the schedule is still brutal from here on out. Last week was the first time that BC scored more than 26 points in a game against an FBS team in almost three full years. Head Coach Frank Spaziani and the crew rank No. 104 in total offense and No. 89 i in total defense, not a good combination for a team that really hasn’t played the meat and potatoes of its schedule at this point. QB Chase Rettig was more or less thrown into the fire last year with the Eagles desperately looking for a signal caller. His stats are improving just a bit, but they’re still nothing to write home about. He has thrown for just 1,418 yards and seven TDs against seven picks, and he is only completing 51.5 percent of his passes. That being said, the ground game is at least suitable, as RBs Rolandan Finch and Andre Williams have combined for 914 rushing yards.

Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles Pick: In the end, we just don’t see the Eagles being able to put up all that much of a fight in this game. The Noles are just the clearly superior team, and by the second half, it should really start to show. Don’t be shocked if this ends up being a four touchdown game when it’s said and done.

PICK: Florida State -14.5


Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UCF Knights (-1.5, 48.5)

Conference USA is about to be shaken up by the Big East, as a number of teams are about to head to the BCS conference. That being said, the UCF Knights are going to be shipping out in all likelihood after this year, but they are going to want to make one more big time push in Conference USA before departing, and that means that they are going to have to take down the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night in NCAA football betting action.

The Golden Hurricane have had themselves a heck of a whirlwind of a season. They started off the year at 1-3, but in fairness, they played three Top 5 teams in the country in the Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and Boise State Broncos. Aside from that, the team is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, and it has put up at least 31 points in all of its games. Remember though, that that isn’t the end of the distraction that this team has had. WR Damaris Johnson, one of the top all purpose yardage men in the history of college football was booted off the team at the start of the year, and Head Coach Todd Graham left for the University of Pittsburgh well after most of the coaches were already signed thanks to the off the field problems of Mike Haywood. Sure, the Tulsa defense stinks, ranking No. 80 or worse in virtually every major defensive category, but the offense has done it all this year. QB GJ Kinne has thrown for 1,895 yards, and both RBs Ja’Terian Douglas and Trey Watts have over 500 rushing yards. This is a dangerous, dangerous team.

The Knights have reached their turning point and potentially a crossroad of their school’s history. They are likely headed to the Big East after this season is over, and they are doing so after a year which could be classified as a disaster, or a reasonable accomplishment. Head Coach George O’Leary led this team to the Conference USA championship last year, and the expectations with a team that largely came back, especially on offense, were very high. Instead, the offense has been lackluster, and the team is just 4-4 to show for its first eight games. That being said, winning out would still send this team to the Conference USA Championship Game once again. This is a tough, tough road ahead though, as these next two games come against the Golden Hurricane and the East Division leaders, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. If those two games are lost, any further slip would take UCF out of bowl eligibility. If the Knights are going to win this game, they’re going to have to play well defensively. The team is the only one in America, including the Alabama Crimson Tide, that rank in the Top 5 in the land in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and scoring.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ UCF Knights Pick: In the history of UCF’s brand new stadium, there haven’t been all that many primetime games. That being said, the Knights just aren’t the better team in this game. Tulsa is going to come on the road and crush the Bright House Networks Stadium crowd, one which should be raucous.

PICK: Tulsa +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Oilers at Kings Get The Scoop
By Ryan Dittrick


Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings (-175, 5)
EDMONTON OILERS (7-2-2) at LA KINGS (6-3-2)

TV: Sportsnet West

RADIO: 630 CHED & Oilers Radio Network

SEASON SERIES: First of four meetings. The Kings swept the Oilers last season, outscoring them 12-5 in the process. Drew Doughty led all scorers in the series with 3 goals. Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier split the goaltending duties, each picking up two wins. Bernier recorded a shutout in the most recent matchup, stopping 32 shots in a 2-0 victory in Edmonton on March 29.

BIG STORY: Undoubtedly the biggest surprise of October, the first-place Oilers face a stiff test to begin the season's second month. Thursday's date with the Kings marks the beginning of a six-game road trip, and all told Edmonton will play 10 of its next 12 games away from Rexall Place. In addition, Ryan Smyth makes his return to Los Angeles after being traded to Edmonton last June.

TEAM SCOPE:

OILERS: There seemed to be little doubt Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would be staying put in Edmonton -- once the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NHL Draft played in his 10th game and it became official, the focus turned to what he's capable of moving forward. Nugent-Hopkins was held scoreless his first game after the cutoff, but he contributed a pair of assists Sunday as the Oilers ran their win streak to five with a 4-2 decision over the Blues. Ryan Smyth scored twice and Nikolai Khabibulin stayed unbeaten in regulation with 27 saves.

"He's such a good leader," coach Tom Renney said of Smyth, who was reacquired this summer and is tied for second on the team in scoring behind Nugent-Hopkins. "He's a heart-and-soul guy. Your young guys need to see that if we're going to win a Cup one day."

KINGS: Conversely, while its opponent will spend most of the next several weeks living out of suitcases, Los Angeles begins a stretch where six of the next seven will be at Staples Center -- and the lone road game is against its California neighbor San Jose. The Kings will be looking to pick up two points after consecutive 3-2 road losses to the Coyotes and Avalanche -- they earned a point by taking the Phoenix game to overtime before falling. On the plus side, Doughty played in both those games after missing five due to an upper-body injury.

"We've got to try to generate more," forward Jarret Stoll said. "We got a lot of shots blocked in the second half of the game tonight. Teams, everyone is blocking shots, everyone is getting in lanes. We've got to find a way to work harder and get pucks to the net, make plays and figure out a way to just get the puck on net and score some ugly goals, get to those tough areas to score more goals."

WHO'S HOT: Smyth has 3 goals and 2 assists in the Oilers' past two games. Jordan Eberle has 3 goals and 4 assists in the last five games. Khabibulin, who ranked third in the NHL's Player of the Month voting for October, has a League-leading 1.12 goals-against average and .960 save percentage. … Anze Kopitar has 2 goals and 2 assists during a three-game points streak for the Kings. Dustin Brown has 1 goal and 4 assists during a three-game points streak.

INJURY REPORT: Edmonton defenceman Cam Barker is day-to-day with a sore shoulder. Defenceman Ryan Whitney (knee) and forwards Ales Hemsky (shoulder) and Darcy Hordichuk (knee) are on injured reserve. … Los Angeles forward Simon Gagne (undisclosed) is day-to-day, while forward Colin Fraser (ankle) is on injured reserve.

STAT PACK: Oilers backup Devan Dubnyk has been overlooked with Khabibulin's torrid start, but he's posted an excellent 1.98 GAA and .938 save percentage in splitting his four starts. … Both of the Kings' goals against the Avalanche came on the power play, where they are ranked fourth in the League this season at 23.1 percent.

PUCK DROP: Edmonton defenseman Andy Sutton scored the game-winning goal in the second period Friday in Colorado but was involved in a third-period incident in which he delivered an elbow to the head of rookie forward Gabriel Landeskog. Sutton was suspended for Sunday's game against St. Louis and an additional four games following a disciplinary hearing Tuesday.

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings (-175, 5)

Ryan Smyth was the heart and soul of the Oilers for years and if he had it his way, he never would have left Edmonton. But now that he’s back with the Oil, it seems like he never left.

Smyth, who has five goals and 10 points in 11 games, has played a big part in Edmonton’s fast start. The Oilers sat tied for first overall in the Western Conference heading into Wednesday night’s action and should be a handful for the Kings as Smyth visits one of his old teams.

"It's a lot of fun playing for this team right now," Smyth told reporters. "The excitement, the energy from day to day, the creativity that the young kids bring, it's all awesome. We just want to keep going. We have some momentum and we have to make sure we keep it going in the right direction."

If you haven’t had a chance to check out Edmonton’s kid line of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and rookie Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, get in on this action. They’re fun to watch.

PICK: Edmonton


Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders (-135, 5.5)

About all you can count on from the Jets is inconsistency at this point in the season. They started the season with five losses in their first six games and have been only marginally better since.

They dropped Florida 4-3 in a shootout on Monday, but were still outshot 20-7 in the first period and 42-31 overall. That was a major problem when the team was based in Atlanta last season and looks like it will be again this year.

Meanwhile, the Islanders are desperate for a win. They have dropped five straight heading into Thursday’s date after showing a lot of promise down the stretch last year. That potential is what’s keeping them from hammering the panic button right now.

"We need a win and we need to get back on track, but we've got to stay positive,” John Tavares told reporters. “It's early in the year, and if we keep playing that way I like our chances."

We like their chances here, too.

PICK: NY Islanders

[Mr. IWS]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
By David Schwab


There is just one week left in the regular season before the start of this year’s CFL playoffs and while all six berths were secured a few weeks back, both division titles remain up for grabs. Starting with last Friday’s game, Toronto threw a monkey wrench into the works with a shocking 27-22 victory over Winnipeg as an 8½-point road underdog. Saskatchewan got into the upset act in Saturday’s first game with a 19-3 win over Hamilton as a six-point home underdog. Later that day, British Columbia pulled away from Edmonton 29-20 as a four-point home favorite to keep its West Division title hopes alive. Calgary finished off the weekend with a thrilling 32-27 win over Montreal as a 5½-point road underdog to create a three-way log jam atop the West. The Alouettes’ loss kept them tie with the Blue Bombers for the lead in the East.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Hamilton Tiger Cats (-2½) vs. Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (51½)

Hamilton is the only set seed for the postseason at No.6 with an overall record of 8-9 straight-up (9-8 against the spread. It is 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last five games overall. Toronto is 5-12 SU, but a solid 8-9 ATS. It is 3-5 both SU and ATS at home and the total has gone ‘over’ in its last three games.

The Tiger Cats have beaten the Argonauts twice this season SU, but the series is tied at 1-1 ATS. The total is also split at 1-1. Hamilton is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Argos have averaged 26.3 points in their last three games after averaging just 21.4 points on the year.

[Mr. IWS]

CANADIAN BACON

Thursday's Best CFL Bet

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (+2, 50.5)

This is the only game being played this week that is guaranteed to have no playoff implications.

So it’s probably not surprising that the Tiger-Cats will sit RB Avon Cobourne, linebackers Rey Williams and Jamall Johnson as well as receiver and return specialist Marc Thigpen.

Plus, coach Marcel Bellefeuille announced this week that QB Jason Boltus may play in Toronto, saying “it was the perfect opportunity to give him some play time and contribute to his development.”

It looks like the Argos will have a chance to give their disappointing season a happy ending in front of their fans. Wideout Maurice Mann, who was recently traded to the Argos by the Tiger Cats, will also find extra motivation by facing his former teammates for the first time.

PICK: Toronto

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Notes: UCF Favored On Short Rest

WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: Akron is 4-1 against the spread in its last five.

NCAAF: Tulsa is 8-1 against the number in its last nine road games.

NHL: San Jose is 13-3-1 in its last 17 games against Pittsburgh.

NHL: Los Angeles has won each of its last four meetings with Edmonton.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: Central Florida is 1-5 against the spread in its last six.

NCAAF: Boston College is 2-10 against the spread in its last 12 home games.

NHL: Detroit is 0-5-1 in its last six games.

NHL: Nashville is 3-8 in its last 11 games in Phoenix.

KEY STAT

1 – Minnesota Wild goaltender Josh Harding allowed just one goal in back-to-back wins over the potent Detroit Red Wings. Harding, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, turned aside 72 of 73 total shots to earn another start Thursday against Vancouver. The Wild are currently pegged as +105 home underdogs.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks – Keith won’t play Thursday against the Florida Panthers as he recovers from a left hand injury. He blocked a shot in Monday’s victory against Nashville and is listed as day-to-day. He has six assists and is a plus-3 this season.

GAME OF THE DAY

Florida State at Boston College (14.5, 44.5)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

''It does help having gone through this before, especially with our seniors who have been through this several times. The younger guys didn't know what to expect those first couple of times when we had shorter weeks, but it's about preparation. It's really important to have good practices and watch extra film to make sure you are ready for the game.'' - UCF senior right tackle Nick Pieschel on playing on a short week. The Knights are now set around -1.5 at home to Tulsa after opening around -2.5.

TIPS AND NOTES

Miami (Ohio) opened as high as -16.5 at some books for its home date against Akron, but now that the RedHawks have dropped to about -14 at most shops, bettors are all over them. As of Wednesday night, more than 70 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were backing the RedHawks, who have covered in three of their last four games overall.

A mid-foot sprain could force Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden to miss this weekend's game against the Denver Broncos. McFadden was held out of Wednesday's practice despite having the bye week to recover from the injury, which he suffered Oct. 23 against the Kansas City Chiefs. It isn't known when the 24-year-old will be able to return to practice, or whether he'll be healthy enough to suit up Sunday. He was on crutches and wearing a protective boot on his foot Wednesday. McFadden has been one of the top running backs in the league so far, carrying the ball 113 times for 614 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Bush will get his first start of the season if McFadden can't go. Oakland is an 8-point favorite.

Nashville Predators center Mike Fisher is expected to return to the ice for Thursday's game against the Phoenix Coyotes. Playing in just his third game since returning from offseason surgery, Fisher suffered a concussion after he was hit by Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin during Saturday's 3-0 victory. Fisher has two goals and two assists this season. Nashville is a +100 underdog at Phoenix Thursday.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at Toronto

The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games in November. Hamilton is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has Hamilton favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (11/2)

Game 491-492: Hamilton at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 112.950; Toronto 109.713 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 3; 54 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-2); Over