11-4-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Friday, November 4, 2011
Mid-American Conference
KENT STATE 24, Central Michigan 18
Pacific-12 Conference
Usc 47, COLORADO 22

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel CFB

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (11/2)

Game 311-312: Central Michigan at Kent State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 68.060; Kent State 67.714 Dunkel Line: Even; 47 Vegas Line: Kent State by 1; 43 Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+1); Over

Game 313-314: USC at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: USC 105.390; Colorado 78.822 Dunkel Line: USC by 26 1/2; 59 Vegas Line: USC by 21; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: USC (-21); Over

[Mr. IWS]

EA Sports Consultants

25* Kent State -1 (8:00pm ET)

25* Colorado +21.5 (9:00pm ET)

[Mr. IWS]

Sharp Move

#312 - Kent State PK

[Mr. IWS]

USC at Colorado: What Bettors Need To Know

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+21, 58.5)

THE STORY: USC gave up a school-record 56 points in its gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to No. 3 Stanford last weekend. Now, the Trojans, who dropped to 64th nationally in scoring defense at 26.8 points per game, look to bounce back with a win at Colorado. The Buffaloes have yet to win a conference game in their first-ever Pac-12 season and they are riding a six-game losing streak for the first time since 2006, when they started the year 0-6.

This is USC’s first Friday night game since 1999 and it’s Colorado’s first-ever game on Friday. The Trojans lead this all-time series 5-0, but these teams haven’t met since 2002.

TV: ESPN

LINE MOVES: Southern Cal opened as high as -22 and has been bet down to -21. The total opened at 56.5 points and has been bet up to 58.5.

ABOUT USC (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12, 4-4 ATS): If there was one positive for the Trojans to take from the loss to Stanford, it was the offense’s continued dominance. Southern Cal scored at least 30 points for the fourth consecutive game and fifth time this season. Running back Curtis McNeal rushed for a career-high 145 yards and two touchdowns and wideout Robert Woods kept his outstanding season going with 89 yards and a touchdown. The sophomore is tied for second nationally with 10.1 receptions per game and is on pace to break USC’s single-season receptions record.

ABOUT COLORADO (1-8, 0-5 Pac-12, 2-7 ATS): After back-to-back blowout losses to Oregon and Arizona State, the Buffaloes’ tough Pac-12 schedule continues this Friday. Colorado is struggling on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 30 nationally in both total offense and total defense, while allowing 38 points per game. Quarterback Tyler Hansen is one of the few bright spots. The senior moved into fifth place on Colorado’s all-time career passing yards list after throwing for 285 yards and a touchdown in a 48-14 loss at Arizona State.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC quarterback Matt Barkley needs 108 yards of total offense to move into third on the school’s career total offense list.

2. The forecast in Boulder calls for snow this weekend, and temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Friday evening. That’s extra cold for kids from California.

3. The Buffaloes have lost their last four games by an average of 36.5 points.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as road favorites.
* Buffaloes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home underdogs.
* Under is 6-2 in Trojans' last eight games as favorites.
* Over is 8-3 in Buffaloes' last 11 games as home underdogs.

PREDICTION: USC 45, Colorado 20. The Trojans might struggle initially to get over such a tough loss, but in the end they’ll blow past a weak Buffaloes defense.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+21, 58.5)

After losing a tremendous triple overtime duel this past week, the USC Trojans will lock horns with the lowly Colorado Buffaloes in NCAA football betting action on Friday night.

Give the Men of Troy credit, as they proved that they could stand toe to toe with the best teams in the country last Saturday in a game that started with regional TV coverage and ended nationally in three overtimes. QB Matt Barkley proved that he is still one of the top signal callers in the land and that he can strike from anywhere on the field. After a relatively sluggish offensive start to the year, the unit once again came forth with a great effort, netting 34 points in regulation and 48 overall for the game against a stout Stanford Cardinal defense, marking the second time this year that the squad reached the 48-point barrier and the fourth straight game with at least 30 points. Head Coach Lane Kiffin never pulls punches either, and he made his opinions clear in the postgame reports on Saturday that he was upset with the Pac-12 officiating. Don’t think for one second that those complaints might not be heard loud and clear by the refs in this game, and a close call might end up going his way as a result.

And then there is Colorado, which is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12 and is probably the worst team amongst the AQ schools in the country. The Buffs had to hope that moving to the Pac-12 would help out with some games against different rivals, but in the end, the bottom of this conference is better than they are, just as was the case in the Big XII as well. There certainly won’t be a game in which the Buffaloes are favored for the rest of the year barring some strange turn of events, and odds have it, they are going to suffer four more double digit defeats when it is said and done as well. First year Head Coach Jon Embree knows that there isn’t a whole heck of a lot that he can do about it either. His top back, RB Rodney Stewart has been out of action for the past two weeks with a knee injury, and though he is expected to come back in this one, he is still doing so against a great defense for a rushing attack that ranks No. 114 in the nation at just 90.0 yards per game.

Colorado Buffaloes @ USC Trojans Pick: There’s a point that the oddsmakers have just overreacted too much, and we tend to think that this is the point for that. The Buffs were 30.5 point underdogs against Oregon and 32 point underdogs against Arizona State, and at some point, the team is going to figure out how to stick inside of a number of this type of a magnitude. To keep this one within 17 or so would be a triumph. Back Colorado.

PICK: Colorado +21

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Avalanche Try To Bounce Back In Dallas
By Deborah Francisco


Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars (-150, 5.5)
AVALANCHE (7-5-0) AT STARS (8-3-0)

TV: ALTITUDE (HD), FS-Southwest

LAST 10: Colorado 6-4-0; Dallas 7-3-0

SEASON SERIES: This is the first meeting of four between the Avalanche and Stars this season. They split four games last season, with Colorado winning the first two games and Dallas winning the second pair.

BIG STORY: The streaking Stars sit atop the Pacific Division standings and will face the Avalanche fresh off a five-day break. The Avs go back on the road, where they've been far more successful than they have been at home.

TEAM SCOPE:

AVALANCHE: Colorado has struggled to win at home this season, a trend that continued on Wednesday with a 4-1 loss to the Coyotes on Wednesday night. The Avalanche's only home win so far was a 3-2 victory over the Los Angeles Kings on Oct. 30. But it was followed by a 4-1 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday that was anything but pretty. Colorado tallied only one goal, late in the second period.

"It's hard to win hockey games when you're not scoring goals," Avs forward Milan Hejduk said. "We just have to keep playing the same way and eventually we'll start scoring goals.

"When you put 40 plus shots at net every night, at some point you need to score more goals than one."

According to the Denver Post, the Avalanche will shift their lines slightly on Friday in an effort to develop more offense. Matt Duchene will play on the left wing with Paul Stastny and Hejduk. TJ Galiardi will play center to Joakim Lidstrom and David Jones while Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog and Daniel Winnik will stay together on the third line.

STARS: In the Stars' last nine games, only one team has defeated them - the Los Angeles Kings. L.A. beat the Stars twice in the month of October, snapping a five-game winning streak on Oct. 22 with a 1-0 win in Los Angeles and 5-3 in Dallas five days later. They bounced back with a 3-1 victory over the New Jersey Devils on Saturday night.

Much of the Stars' recent success has to do with the standout play of Kari Lehtonen, who made 31 saves on Saturday for the win in a game when were outshot 32-23 by the Devils. Lehtonen improved to 8-1-0, earning NHL Second Star of the Month honors for the month of October. The Finnish netminder concluded the month with a .947 save percentage and a 1.75 goals-against average -- the best October numbers Lehtonen has posted in his career.

"It was a pretty nice game to play for me," Lehtonen said. "They got some shots, but I was able to see most of them and I think our penalty killing was really good too. It was a tight game and we kind of played the same way the Devils usually play, and we were able to get the one crappy goal at the end."

WHO'S HOT: Dallas's new bench boss, Glen Gulutzan, boasts the best-ever record for a Stars coach through his first 11 contests.

INJURY REPORT: Brandon Yip, who scored a pair of goals in Colorado's last meeting with the Stars last April, remains out with a broken forearm.

STAT PACK: The Avs are averaging a league-worst 1.2 goals at home, where they are 1-4-0. However, they have 24 goals in their seven road games and own the League's best road record at 6-1-0. Colorado has scored on eight of its last 14 road power plays.

PUCK DROP: "Looking at the first 10-game segment, if you'd asked any one of us at the start of the season if we'd take 7-3, we'd all sign up for that, and here we are at 8-3, that's a pretty good month," Dallas captain Brenden Morrow said. "We're pretty happy with our start. It's a process, the whole season, you want to keep revving things up so you're playing your best hockey in March and April. Last year, we kind of tailed off a little bit, but that's going to be a focus of ours every day, just putting the time and work in, play with pace so everything becomes a habit."

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars (-150, 5.5)

Young hockey teams often play much better on the road than they do at home. They don’t have the pressure of playing in front of their home crowd and get a chance to bond while on the highway.

That’s definitely the case with Colorado this season. The Avalanche are just 1-4 in Denver, but 6-1 on the road. They’re also catching a major break Friday night with Dallas’ Steve Ott expected to sit out with a hip injury.

Say what you will about Ott, but he’s one of the main factors in Dallas’ success this season. He has eight points in 11 games with 26 penalty minutes while centering the second line and playing on both special teams.

Without Ott, who isn’t expected to play again until at least Tuesday, Dallas was forced to juggle its lines considerably throughout practice this week.
The Stars will miss him in this one and you have to think Colorado’s happy to be back on the road.

PICK: Colorado


Montreal Canadians at Ottawa Senators (-125, 5.5)

After often looking disinterested last season, you have to be impressed with Ottawa’s quick start. The Sens still don’t have a ton of talent or depth, but they’re proving to be hard to play against.

And that’s all anyone can really ask from them.

They reeled off six straight wins before dropping a 5-3 decision to the Bruins on Tuesday. The Bruins put together one of their best efforts of the season in that one, thanks in large part to the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal took both ends of a home-and-home against the Bruins before Ottawa visited Beantown, so it was a tough spot for the Sens.

Making matters worse, captain Daniel Alfredsson is still out with a concussion and no timetable has been set for his return.

The Habs have been idle since then and the break allowed the club to get a couple days away from the ice. Montreal should have lots of legs to jump on Ottawa early.

PICK: Montreal

[Mr. IWS]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
By David Schwab

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 05, 2011

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos (8½) Over/Under (47)

Saskatchewan moved to 5-12 SU (5-11 ATS) with last week’s win. It is 2-6 SU and ATS in eight road games this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last six games overall. Edmonton is 10-7 SU (9-8 ATS) on the year. It is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of its last four games.

The Roughriders lost both games to the Eskimos this season SU and ATS by a combined score of 59-29. They managed to score just one point in the last game as a six-point road underdog. Edmonton is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games and 7-2 ATS in the last nine. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four meetings. Saskatchewan is the lowest scoring team in the league with an average of just 19.2 points a game.

[Mr. IWS]

CANADIAN BACON

Friday's Best CFL Bet

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-8.5, 47)

The Edmonton Eskimos are still fighting for first place in the West despite losing 29-20 last week in Vancouver.

After struggling in the midseason, Ricky Ray has been pretty solid down the stretch and has six touchdown passes in his last three games. Running back Jerome Messam had a tougher night than usual in British Columbia and was limited to only 62 rushing yards, but expect him to bounce back this week.

On defense, the Eskimos have been sloppy over the last few weeks and will need to tighten up. Out of the playoff picture, the Roughriders are trying to end the season on a bright note but will also look to give coach Ken Miller a final win before he retires. It could also be the last game for 33-year-old Jason Clermont.

PICK: Edmonton

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Betting Tips: Could Cold Weather Kill USC Bets?

WEATHER TO WATCH

When the USC Trojans landed in Boulder, Colorado Thursday, it was 33 degrees. Temperatures aren’t expected to be quite that cold Friday (39 degrees with 12 mph winds), but it’s worth noting USC hasn’t played in snow since a game in Notre Dame back in 1957. The Trojans are set as fat 21-point road favorites against the Buffaloes.

WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: USC is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine road games.

NCAAF: The under is 6-1 in Kent State’s last seven conference games.

NHL: Chicago is 10-4-1 in its last 15 games against Tampa Bay.

NHL: Ottawa is 4-0 in its last four home games.

CFL: Hamilton is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven against Toronto.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: Central Michigan is 3-14 against the spread in its last 17 overall.

NCAAF: Colorado is 5-16 against the spread in its last 21 conference games.

NHL: Carolina is 1-6 in its last seven games against Washington.

NHL: Calgary is 0-7 in its last seven games in Buffalo.

CFL: Toronto is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 home games.

KEY STAT

77.2 – If you haven’t taken a long look at CFL totals lately, you may want to get in on this under trend before the playoffs start. Better than 77 percent (13-5) of CFL games have played under their totals in the last month.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams- Quarterback Sam Bradford increased his practice workload Thursday in hopes of recovering in time to play in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals. Bradford is nursing a high-ankle sprain that has kept him out of the past two games. He was limited to individual drills for the second day in a row, but looked strong and is expected to take on a larger role in Friday's workout. Bradford has thrown for 1,177 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in five games so far this season. A.J. Feeley will make his third straight start if Bradford can't play.

GAME OF THE DAY

USC at Colorado (21, 58.5)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"Well, I was (ticked) off. Of course I want to be in that situation on the ice, and you know it doesn't matter who I said it (to) and what I said. It look funny on TV. It's right now a big story. It's just a little bit frustrating because I'm a leader on the team and I want to be on that kind of responsibility." – Alex Ovechkin on being benched during the final second of regulation in Tuesday’s 5-4 overtime win over Anaheim.

TIPS AND NOTES

During their bye week, the Kent State Golden Flashes moved junior Josh Kline from right tackle to left tackle and the move clicked immediately in the club’s 27-15 upset against Bowling Green. Kent State didn’t allow a sack in for the second time this season while the club’s running backs averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Kent State is a 1-point home favorite against Eastern Michigan Friday.

The Houston Texans may have their top receiver back in the fold this weekend when they face off against the Cleveland Browns. Head coach Gary Kubiak said Thursday that star wideout Andre Johnson's hamstring is feeling better, and suggested he would be a game-time decision for Sunday's contest. Johnson hasn't played since suffering a serious hamstring in Week 4 that eventually required surgery. Houston has eased him back into practice situations, keeping him out of sessions Wednesday and Thursday. He will try to participate fully on Friday before being reevaluated. Johnson, 30, has 25 catches for 352 yards and two touchdowns so far this season. The Texans are set as 11-point favorites.

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Friday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
USC/Colorado UNDER 58.5

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

29-12 run (12 - 2 last 13)

free play
kent st pk

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

746- 547 57 % Free Play Run over 3 YEARS

Free play FRI: Under Carolina 5 1/2 NHL