Tuesday 12/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#3 Stacy Attack	She's got reliable form and some positional pace that should leave her in a perfect spot behind a couple of pace players again today. She was right there with similar last out and should be in the mix again.
#2 Divine Fashion	Her Charles Town form is decent enough, and she had success in her only other local trip. Versatile tracking pace should be one of the ones.
#6 Blushing Betty	She just beat a couple of these last time out and has historically done pretty good work here, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see her win right back, especially if a decent tempo develops and she can finish again.
Race Summary	Stacy Attack might be just playable enough on the board, and she looks likely to get a really dreamy trip while just in behind the pace to get the jump on the closers.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Back to Ohio	Not exactly breaking news that she's supposed to be tough, but she doesn't appear to be meeting a ton of other serious early pace and has been almost automatic with 13 career wins. Always a good sign that Loveberry makes the Fair Grounds dark day trip.
#5 The Sweaty Fox	She might be the most likely to force the issue early with the top choice, and she chased a pretty talented filly in that stakes spot here a couple weeks back. Reasonable alternative.
#7 Liam's Lass	Could see her getting an OK spying trip from outside, but I think she's likely to find one or two of these a little too good today. Some price appeal for the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Back to Ohio has literally never run a bad race and has been very sharp in her local tries -- she should be able to handle this group.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#9 Hidden Heart	Would be willing to land here at something a bit shorter than the 6/1 ML offering, as he should get a really nice trip while tracking a potentially vulnerable favorite.
#2 Vernon's Best	He's supposed to be a handful here, but that was also the case last out and a couple other times he came up short at an odds-on price, and I just couldn't be that enthusiastic about settling here at anything like that again today.
#1 Hurrycane Don	Extremely mild signs of life in that last out, and that alone might be good enough to land a piece in a modest spot. Slowly heading in a better direction?
Race Summary	Hidden Heart should trip out from the high draw, and I'm curious to see how the betting shakes out -- Vernon's Best is unreliable late, and debuting #6 Ilikethat is listed at 7/5 on the line. Get a good look at him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #5

#6 CANDIED JOULE (10-1)	No threat in fast race at Emerald Downs, added ground should help.
#7 LIKE NO OTHER (4-5)	Cali invader hit board in 4 of last 8, takes magnified class drop in this field.
#3 BUCCCHERA (3-1)	Second best as fave on drop to this level three months ago.
Race Summary	CANDIED JOULE has been in winning range in most of her six starts at this level, but has yet to cash in for a win. She exits a fast race, starts fresh and at least has some positive long sprint form to summon. Bet to win and place and play a 6-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#2 F B I BOB (7-2)	Ended bout with seconditis in style at 5F, taken to repeat at 6F.
#5 CANDY CABALLO (5-1)	Packs late kick, shortens up off first long-distance test.
#3 JUST TRUST ME (5-2)	Won at Del Mar and Pleasanton in last two short sprints on dirt.
Race Summary	F B I BOB shook a duel with his stablemate, who finished second, and drew off in the stretch to break his maiden with ease. He upstaged a series of runner-up placings and did it off a two-month freshening. Bet to win and place and play 2-3 and 2-5 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#1 DEFENSOR FORTIS (7-2)	Plunges for top barn, tries new surface, seeks third win since June.
#6 ANOTHER BOTTLE (5-2)	Bumpy break in the slop, rallied 6-wide to get beat 2 lengths at 5F.
#8 ROSENQUIST (8-1)	Carried speed better two starts back, starts fresh at suitable distance.
Race Summary	DEFENSOR FORTIS (7-2) broke his maiden for $25,000 on a synthetic track, won a $12,500 claimer on turf and shows some good works for his first start on dirt for the cheapest tag of his career. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 3	$2 Daily Double (Races 3-4) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,400 • Post: 7:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MARKHAMIAN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MARKHAMIAN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CITADINO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LAST COOKIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaste r Power Rating.
6	MARKHAMIAN	5/1	4/1
5	CITADINO	2/1	9/2
1	LAST COOKIE	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MARKHAMIAN	6	5/1	Front-runner	83	89	85.0	61.0	51.5
5	CITADINO	5	2/1	Stalker	87	77	62.6	78.0	74.5
4	MOON OVER DUBAI	4	8/1	Trailer	77	75	54.6	63.2	53.7
1	LAST COOKIE	1	7/2	Trailer	82	79	40.6	76.0	72.0
7	CABOOSE	7	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	79	69	74.4	61.8	55.3
2	ALIBI IKE	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	66	56.8	62.4	52.4
3	DANELAND	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	79	36.0	46.4	34.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $4,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $10,700 • Post: 3:14P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. ANOTHERBOTTLE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DEFENSOR FORTIS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANOTHE RBOTTLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. COASTAL FOG: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/sur face. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ROSENQUIST: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
1	DEFENSOR FORTIS	7/2	5/1
6	ANOTHERBOTTLE	5/2	5/1
3	COASTAL FOG	15/1	6/1
8	ROSENQUIST	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	COASTAL FOG	3	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	73	87.0	63.6	56.1
1	DEFENSOR FORTIS	1	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	82	78	73.7	62.3	59.8
8	ROSENQUIST	8	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	80	107.1	59.7	47.7
7	BARON'S SONG	7	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	71	48.0	66.0	56.5
6	ANOTHERBOTTLE	6	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	82	77	57.2	59.1	51.6
2	DIXON TUFF	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	68	37.0	60.8	46.8
4	BEER BEGONE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	69	34.2	46.4	32.4
5	SOLDATNA	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	68	24.6	60.6	52.6
9	DR VINNIE BOOMBATZ	9	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	73	47	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29500 Class Rating: 52

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 THIS RACE WILL BE RUN LASIX FREE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SALSA AMERICANA 10/1
# 3 RUNNING BEAR 5/2
# 6 SAPELLO SICARIO 12/1

SALSA AMERICANA looks strong to best this field especially at 10/1. Is difficult not to consider given the company run in lately. The drastic drop in company can only help out this one today. RUNNING BEAR - With Guerra aboard him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out sharply for this race. This racer has to be in good condition coming back to the track so soon. SAPELLO SICARIO - The average class fig of 21 makes this horse difficult to beat. Very good jockey and trainer combo winning 20 percent of their races working together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,100 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#7 IRISH UNITY (ML=3/1)
#2 TAPSOLUTION (ML=7/2)
#6 BOURBON AND ICE (ML=6/1)


IRISH UNITY - I like this mount. Should be familiar with this class level since he ran against the same type last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. My friends and I have made dough playing ponies with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. Last out, finished sixth in the mud at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Has to do better in this event. TAPSOLUTION - I figure Bernardini is making a good move here. This gelding can only profit from the shorter distance. BOURBON AND ICE - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Farrior. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Martinez comes to saddle up after getting to know the gelding in the last event. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last rating, 80, is tops in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CARABINERO (ML=2/1), #5 DYRDEK (ML=8/1), #4 SUMMERFEST (ML=8/1),

CARABINERO - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of signs. Tough to like the downward flow (69/64/42) of Equibase speed figures. DYRDEK - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned regularly. Caution must be used since front wraps were added on November 20th. Finished second in his most recent performance with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. SUMMERFEST - The speed figs are going downward. I'm not playing this mount off of that trend. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this animal as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 IRISH UNITY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,6,7] with [2,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 1:53pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#6 SON OF THOR (ML=9/5)


SON OF THOR - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. The jock and conditioner combination have a lucrative ROI when they combine forces. Coletti drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more knowledge to figure that this horse has a good chance at this level. Another way to judge class is EPS (earnings per start). This thoroughbred has the topmost in the group. I think he'll be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MASTER OF TWEETS (ML=2/1), #7 HOLY MITOLE (ML=7/2), #5 DON'T DOUBT DECLAN (ML=5/1),

MASTER OF TWEETS - This vulnerable equine ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that number. HOLY MITOLE - No good fortune for this questionable contender in a sprint contest over the last couple of months tells me that this colt is in a formidable situation The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced equine. DON'T DOUBT DECLAN - I prognosticate a setback for this animal in this race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SON OF THOR - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TM Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 SON OF THOR to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 2
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7900 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 FREE SMOKE 7/2
# 3 CAPTURETHELAUGHTER 4/1
# 5 HIPPODROME 3/1

My choice in here is FREE SMOKE. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong speed figures (77 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Earned a formidable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. May best this field here, showing solid figures of late. CAPTURETHELAUGHTER - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field recently. He has been running solidly and the Speed Figures are among the best in this field. HIPPODROME - Ought to go to the lead and may never look back. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 69 - of his last affair.