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Scott Shapiro: Turfway Wednesday Picks | December 11, 2024

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December 10, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

The second week of the Turfway Park Holiday Meet kicks off on Wednesday night after several reminders during opening week about what lies ahead all winter in Florence, Kentucky. Remember regardless of results during the first couple of weeks to continue to stick to your process and make quality bets. It is a marathon, not a sprint.

Race 4:

There does not appear to be that much speed on paper in this open $8k claimer at 6.5-furlongs, which should benefit #1 Buzzer. The 6YO gelding has been given two months since a dominating 5.5-length romp as the odds-on choice in an allowance event at Belterra Park. The son of Sky Kingdom is 0 for 5 over this surface in his career, but was a different horse than competing for a barn that wins at a far lower percentage than his current one. Since moving into the Sergio Baez barn this spring, he has rattled off 4 of 8 and only finished off the board once. Baez has not started a lot of runners in 2024, but has meant business with what he has sent to the starting gates evidenced by his 39%-win rate. He should get another one here in gate-to-wire fashion under jockey Albin Jimenez.

Play: #1 Buzzer (4-1 ML)

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Race 6:

#4 Cruz Chica looks to make it two wins in a row after a very good-looking effort for the level on October 30 at Churchill Downs. In that $20k maiden claimer over the main track, this Flameaway filly battled early under legitimate fractions, put away the other speed, and had plenty left late to get the job done as the 5-2-second. The Lynn Cash trainee still has to answer the surface switch question, but I am hopeful she will do so without issue. Not only did her dam earn her lone career victory over Arlington Park’s synthetic surface in 2017, but Cash horses have produced a $2.41 ROI over a 31-race sample size when shipping into Turfway. Hopefully, German Terraza can avoid getting caught up in an early tussle stretching back out to two-turns. If so, I like her chances to make it back-to-back scores.

Play: #4 Cruz Chica (6-1 ML)

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Race 8:

Trainer Eoin Harty has had quite the two-week run. The veteran conditioner has won with 3 of 9, including a pair of Kentucky Derby points races with First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Poster in the Remsen (G2). Harty appears to have a big chance as well in this first-level allowance event with #5 Abeyance. The American Pharoah filly raced three times as a 2YO, including a win over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf, but has been on the sidelines since trying Grade 2 foes in the Jessamine last October. The Godolphin homebred returned off a 13-month layoff last month in two-turn turf race at Churchill Downs and ran a solid fifth at 10-1. She should be ready for a big step forward stretching out to 10-furlongs after shaking off the rust in Louisville. Corey Lanerie who will ride in Florence all winter, will take the call.

Play: #5 Abeyance (6-1 ML)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#3 Starofthegame	Think he has a midrange price claim on this, as I can see him potentially getting a decent trip while tracking the splits. His slight ability to rate might be a big asset today.
#5 Perfect Shances	She's supposed to win this one while dropping out of Gulfstream stakes company, but I could see her having a little bit of pace to deal with today. Tough call, but the price will be short whichever way you decide. One of a couple interesting fillies in here....
#8 High Tole	She needs to elevate her game to land this one, but she could get a nice trip from the outside and probably still has some upside after running to her 4/5 price in the debut.
Race Summary	Starofthegame turned in a sharp effort in his first spin over the track, and he might find a perfect spot to spy and pounce today. Price should be OK with the Ward runner sure to take cash.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#7 Flashy N	She should be an OK price in a spot where she figures to get an honest tempo, and she's one of the few in here with some reliable finishing form. Along late.
#2 Siofra	Her dangerous pace is going to make her a threat, but there are a couple other chasing types lined up who might at least make sure she doesn't get a chance to relax up top. Capable.
#6 Belle Bottoms	She has some tactical pace that might keep her in a good spot as she rises to try winners for the first time, and she should get the jump on anything serious coming from the back.
Race Summary	Flashy N is in the picture with something like her last, and I think she gets a decent race shape with this group that could have her ready to get past late.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#3 Legendary Star	He ran well enough in the career debut at Thistledown to think he can stack up OK with this kind of group after the flat run going long last out. Cutback player might get a nice run while getting back to what he does best.
#1 Midnight Council	He's got a chance to win right back with some positional pace that should keep him in the mix from the fence in a race without a ton of serious early burn. Dangerous, but he's getting short on excuses.
#7 Call It a Night	He's one of the ones in here with anything like the last try, but he's just going a bit flat late in his races and could be stuck looking at another underneath share.
Race Summary	Legendary Star has some midrange price appeal while turning back to a sprint spot, and he doesn't seem overmatched in here if you just draw a line through the route try.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#2 PERFECT PINK (4-1)	Took money, ran third in debut, enters high-percentage claim barn.
#1 QUIZ WHIZ (6-1)	Contended for this far in long sprint on turf before fading in MSW company.
#4 ROSE OF SHARON (5-2)	Stablemate of ‘Pink’ had loyal following in Canada, good fit at this level.
Race Summary	PERFECT PINK, the lone first-time starter in a 5F sprint at this level, rallied mildly while 4-wide in the stretch and finished behind the 4-to-5 runner-up. She adds blinkers for a barn in the midst of an 8-for-23 run off the claim. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.

Penn National - Race #2

#2 G’S FIREBALL (4-1)	Earned top speed fig in defeat, could return quick claim dividend.
#4 RAISE YOUR GAME (7-2)	Rallied for three wins and two near misses in her last five starts.
#7 MELODIOUS SINGER (4-1)	Boasts four runaway victories in her last seven starts at 6F.
Race Summary	G’S FIREBALL followed the move of the winner and earned her top speed figure when second in the same spot on a sloppy track. She could win with a similar performance, but could move up off the Kreiser claim. Bet to win and place.

Penn National - Race #5

#1 I KNOW MAP (3-1)	Can draw closer to $100k sophomore season with projected ideal set-up.
#6 DREAM RIVER (6-1)	Has speed but has been lacking stretch kick of late, sheds 4 pounds.
#7 PROM KNIGHT (5-1)	Was king for a day in comeback romp, takes confident class hike.
Race Summary	I KNOW MAP, 5-wide off the turn, faded in final eighth for a higher tag. He resumes his predominant once-a-month schedule and should sit an ideal trip off the two speedy rivals breaking from the outside. Bet to win and place and play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park
PURCHASE

Zia Park - Race 2	2nd Half $1 Early Daily Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta 1st Leg .50 Pick 4
Claiming $10,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 12:33
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TRIGGERED: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TALLULAH BAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EYEZ A RISING: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRS WOOD B STREAK: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
5	EYE A ALLSTAR	5/2	5/1
6	TRIGGERED	6/1	5/1
8	TALLULAH BAY	4/1	9/1
2	EYEZ A RISING	10/1	9/1
10	GRS WOOD B STREAK	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HANDSOME EAGLE	1	15/1	Slow	74	65	6.2	0.0	0.0
2	EYEZ A RISING	2	10/1	Average	80	73	5.1	0.0	0.0
3	OSBALDO LUCKY BOY	3	20/1	Average	77	73	4.7	0.0	0.0
4	EYE WANNA PIZZA YOU	4	9/2	Average	81	70	4.8	0.0	0.0
5	EYE A ALLSTAR	5	5/2	Average	88	81	3.7	0.0	0.0
6	TRIGGERED	6	6/1	Slow	86	79	6.2	0.0	0.0
7	KISS THE BABY	7	15/1	Average	74	68	5.0	0.0	0.0
8	TALLULAH BAY	8	4/1	Average	78	69	3.9	0.0	0.0
9	DON ALFREDO O	9	10/1	Average	75	66	5.4	0.0	0.0
10	GRS WOOD B STREAK	10	8/1	Average	75	71	5.3	0.0	0.0
11	RIVERS	11	15/1	Average	75	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
12	MATTIE JANE	12	7/2	Fast	74	69	2.6	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $10,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 75 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MDA WILD CORONA EYES: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL ABOARDE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style des ignation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. IMA TRUCKLE FEATURE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	MDA WILD CORONA EYES	8/5	9/2
5	ALL ABOARDE	15/1	6/1
6	IMA TRUCKLE FEATURE	3/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MDA WILD CORONA EYES	1	8/5	Average	75	74	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	SPECIAL RIP TIDE	2	12/1	Fast	63	61	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	DASHING GRAND	3	5/1	Fast	68	66	1.2	0.0	0.0
4	BD WICKED QUICK	4	15/1	Average	62	55	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	ALL ABOARDE	5	15/1	Fast	77	66	3.2	0.0	0.0
6	IMA TRUCKLE FEATURE	6	3/1	Average	76	71	5.4	0.0	0.0
7	JESS A BLUE T	7	20/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	54	51	9.9	0.0	0.0
8	PAINTED RUSTY	8	10/1	Average	64	57	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	HAPPY OUR SPECIAL	9	6/1	Average/Trouble-prone	67	64	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 74

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 OCTOBER BLISS 6/1
# 2 BIG BEEMSTER 9/5
# 7 BOBBY THE TANK 5/2

I lean toward OCTOBER BLISS here. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 65. BIG BEEMSTER - Ought to be considered here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. Will make a strong outing versus this lot. BOBBY THE TANK - Adorno will probably be able to get this gelding to break out sharply for this event. Is a definite contender - given the 60 speed figure from his most recent race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,700 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#2 SUNTIKA (ML=8/1)


SUNTIKA - I like to play this handicapping theory, a campaigner coming back off a solid effort within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GOGO NEV'S (ML=7/5), #4 CASSOULET (ML=5/1), #10 KATNAPPING (ML=6/1),

GOGO NEV'S - Difficult to bet on any pony in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. It looks like too much early zip is entered in this affair. This early speedball will in all probability get cooked at the front. CASSOULET - This mount has no victories at Mountaineer Park. KATNAPPING - Finished second in her most recent race with a mediocre speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 SUNTIKA on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#8 SHARP AS DAMASCUS (ML=6/1)


SHARP AS DAMASCUS - Triana and Biehler perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +22 return on investment for a jock and trainer. Faced tougher last out at Remington Park. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders. Don't throw this horse out due to his last race at Remington Park where he finished seventh in the slop. Should improve this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MAXIMUM STORM (ML=3/1), #5 RIDEN THE LEGEND (ML=4/1), #2 FULLY FUNDED (ML=5/1),

MAXIMUM STORM - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint races in order to bet on him. RIDEN THE LEGEND - This gelding notched a speed rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. FULLY FUNDED - In any contest of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in sprint races recently. This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SHARP AS DAMASCUS - One of the class angles that my buddy Solo Steve and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is at the top in my book.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 SHARP AS DAMASCUS to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31900 Class Rating: 85

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $40,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 13 MUCHO MACHO CHICK 20/1
# 11 AIR FORCE THUNDER 6/1
# 6 MISCHIEF LILY 8/1

MUCHO MACHO CHICK appears to be the wager in here and could score at a price in here. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. Roman should be able to get this filly to break out quickly for this event. AIR FORCE THUNDER - Has performed solidly lately in route races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed rating.