11-5-11

[Mr. IWS]

Winning Points
Record
17-19-1

Best Bets
#325 Virgina
#318 E.Michigan

Preferred
#354 Oklahoma
#374 Srizona
#358 N.C. State
#383 Cincinnati

[Mr. IWS]

Week 10 NCAA Trends & Angles

We have now reached Week 10 of the college football season, and believe it or not, there is still one team in the country that is undefeated against the spread, that being the Stanford Cardinal at a perfect 8-0 ATS. One other team, the Oklahoma State Cowboys has covered seven consecutive games since failing to cover on opening week.
That led us to research how teams that have covered seven straight games have done historically, and although it has not happened with great frequency since 1985, these teams have not fared well in the next game, which fits perfectly with our contrarian nature.

Play against any team that has won seven or more games in a row ATS (41-26-2, 61.2% ATS since 1985): Teams that are covering machines like this are very popular among bettors, but as you might expect, the bookmakers eventually adjust for these popular teams to the point where they lose their value. It may take some courage, but the two qualifying plays this week are Oregon State +20½ hosting Stanford and Kansas State +20½ visiting Oklahoma State.

Play the 'under' in non-conference games if the home team's last 2 games went 'over' (103-79-1, 56.9% since 2005): This is a contrarian angle having to do with books padding totals after a team goes 'over' in a couple of games, especially since the general public loves betting the 'over'. This angle does not show up as often as it did earlier in the season as there are much fewer non-conference games at this time of year, but there is one qualifying play this week: play 'under' in Troy at Navy.

Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (112-83-1, 57.4% ATS since 2005): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a divisional opponent that they are very familiar with.. This angle went only 2-3 in Week 9, but it has a chance to come back with five qualifiers in Week 10: Ball State +2½, Northwestern +17½, Purdue +25½, Tulane +25 and Washington State +9½.

Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last five games (113-82-6, 57.9% ATS since 2005): You obviously have to be a good team to be favored so many consecutive weeks, so it stands to reason that these teams would fare better when favored again, especially when playing at home. Playing familiar conference opponents has only added to the success. Granted, this is one of our few angles that is less than 58 percent, but the large sampling nicely compensates for that. There are two qualifiers this week with one coming in the Big One, that being Alabama -5. The other play is Oklahoma -13½.

Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last six games (82-58-2, 58.6% ATS since 2005): Add another game to the favored streak and the ATS winning percentage jumps to nearly 59 percent over a still decent sized sampling. Both qualifiers from the previous angle also qualify here.

Play on any conference home favorite that was favored in each of its last seven games (53-35-1, 60.3% ATS since 2005): Adding yet one more game gets us over the magical 60 percent mark, granted over just 88 decisions. Again, both qualifiers from the previous two angles qualify here.

Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (193-135-2, 58.6% ATS since 2005): These are oftentimes teams that are not used to being favored, and this record suggests that they usually cannot handle the pressure of being expected to win. Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +44.5 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. Week 10 is a busy week for this trend with nine big qualifiers: Missouri +2½ vs. Baylor, Syracuse +1½ vs. Connecticut, Ball State +2½ vs. Eastern Michigan, Louisiana Tech +3 vs. Fresno State, Kansas +14 vs. Iowa State, Minnesota +28 vs. Michigan State, Indiana +27½ vs. Ohio State, Idaho +9½ vs. San Jose State and Tulane +25 vs. SMU.

Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games (105-67-1, 61.0% ATS since 2005): Tack on a third straight game as an underdog coming into this game to our previous angle and the winning percentage jumps to 61 percent over a fairly nice sized sampling. There are six qualifiers from the previous angle that qualify here: Syracuse, Ball State, Louisiana Tech, Kansas, Indiana and Idaho.

Play on any conference home favorite coming off of six straight up wins or more (124-69-3, 64.2% ATS since 2002): Yes, you read that correctly, this is an angle that has gone 64 percent over 193 decisions going all the way back to 2002, and unlike most of our other angles, this system is not contrarian! A team that wins six straight games in the same season is usually a good team, as that is enough wins where not all the victories can be attributed to luck, and these teams should continue to succeed inside their conference. Add in home favoritism and the results have been rather phenomenal over a nice nine-year span, as you can see. This angle had a great week in Week 8 going 5-2 ATS, and there as three qualifiers this week in Oklahoma State -14, Oregon -36½ and Penn State -5, as well as Alabama -4½ next week

[Mr. IWS]

Free Play from Doc's Sports.
#102 Take UNLV Rebels +41 over Boise State Broncos (Saturday 10:30 p.m. CBS College Sports)
It is not too often that you find a home team this big of an underdog, but that is what we have at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. This is a clear mismatch in talent, and in the last 10 games UNLV has played against ranked teams, they are 0-10, but they lost those games by an average of 28 points per game. That is way under the posted number of this game and, thus, we expect Las Vegas to muster a little offense and a little defense to keep this game below 35 points. The Broncos are 7-0, but they have only covered this number in two of their victories this season. The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games when they are an underdog. Boise puts up close to 50 points, but Las Vegas reaches double digits and thus keeps this game under the posted number. Do not miss Doc's Sports weekend football card featuring selections on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday (3-0 run on MNF l/3 weeks). Doc is dominating the NFL this season and now is the time to jump on board with a long-term subscription, as this gives you the best chance for success. Doc has been handicapper football for more than 40 years and expects a big finish to the 2011 season!

Free College Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports:
Take #318 Eastern Michigan (-2.5) over Ball State (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 4)
Home field has been particularly important in the MAC this year, and we'll back EMU on their own field in this one. We nailed Ball State last week (at home) as a free pick, but the road has not been kind to them. Conversely, the Eagles are 4-0 at home, not to mention they have won three of their last four overall. Eastern definitely deserves to be the favorite in this contest, and the line on this game steamed when they opened up as an underdog. We'll grab them minus the small number to keep up their strong play of late. Chalk up another one for the home team in league play. Collect with this game and then sign up for my 6-Unit College Football Game of the Month today.

Free College Football Prediction From Vegas Sports Informer:
Take #313 USC (-21.5) over Colorado (9 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
Yes, the Trojans are on the road, but USC will be using Colorado as redemption since USC is coming off a horrible loss at home against Stanford. Colorado has been just terrible this year. The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record and Colorado is 3-12-1 ATS following a SU loss of more then 20 points. USC, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite and they have the far superior talent here. This game will be over by halftime and I see the Trojans winning this game, 42-10. Pick up this winning ticket and sign up for my 6-Unit college football total this week.

Free NFL Prediction From Indian Cowboy:
Take #413 Miami (+4) over Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
I know, an ugly looking underdog, right? I am a big proponent of fading the public. The Dolphins go on the road to face a Chiefs team that comes off a very visible MNF game in which the Chiefs won. This is a classic situation where they are in for a letdown just like the Saints very public and visible win over the Colts on national television when they scored 60+ points. I'm not saying that Miami wins outright, but what I am saying is that they hang tough within the spread and given that our principle is going against the public, this is not a bad wager to take similar to the Rams over the Saints last week. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS on the road when they face a team with a winning home record (meaning, the better teams in the league and the Dolphins are facing difficult spreads - such as the Giants last week) and the Chiefs are 3-10 ATS when they are home favorites (remember, they were not a favorite on MNF, they were an underdog).

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

5 Unit Play. #15 Take Michigan Wolverines -4 over Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday 12 p.m. ESPN)
Michigan by 13

4 Unit Play. #51 Take Northwestern Wildcats +17.5 over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 3:30 p.m. Big Ten Network)
Nebraska by 7

4 Unit Play. #76 Take Tennessee Volunteers -20.5 over Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Saturday 7 p.m. ESPN 3)
Tennessee by 28

4 Unit Play. #94 Take Arizona Wildcats -3.5 over Utah Utes (Saturday 7 p.m. FSN)
Arizona by 17

4 Unit Play. #104 Take Hawaii Warriors -3.5 over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 11:59 p.m. ESPN 3)
Hawaii by 24

Strong Opinion Plays
#48 Take Miami (fl) -15.5 over Duke
#52 Take Over 63.5 in Northwestern @ Nebraska
#96 Take Oregon State +21 over Stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

6* UCLA +8.5

4* Utah State +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

EA Sports Consultants

SATURDAY

100* Iowa +4 (12:00pm ET)

This is a classic spot for Kirk Ferentz and we expect the Hawkeyes to deliver.

25* Virginia -2 (12:30pm ET)

25* Texas A&M +13 (3:30pm ET)

25* Nebraska -17 (3:30pm ET) (released on Tuesday)

25* Oregon State +21 (3:30pm ET)

25* Rice -1 (3:30pm ET)

50* East Carolina +9 (4:00pm ET)

The Pirates are in a great spot here catching this many points at home against a Southern Mississippi team that is ready to let up a bit from their recent run. The ECU offense should keep them in this one. Need to win the turnover battle and we'll be cashing a winner.

50* Rutgers +2.5 (7:00pm ET)

According to our models, there is a ton of line value here with the Scarlet Knights.

25* UCLA +8.5 (7:30pm ET)

25* Alabama -4.5 (8:00pm ET)

This game will not be the "all-timer" that most people are expecting. In fact, the winner of this game will win by 10+ points. We expect Bama's offense to keep LSU at arm's length for most of the night and should be able to pad the lead in the 4th quarter to avoid the backdoor.

25* Washington +16.5 (10:30pm ET)

50* Utah State +3.5 (11:55pm ET)

We historically have had a rule about fading Hawaii on the island, but this is an exception. Utah State is a much better team than the public realizes. Hawaii isn't that strong this season and we expect the team from the mainland to pull off the upset; in what will be considered a "shocker" to many, but not us.

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Saturday... Take Louisiana Tech +3 over Fresno State

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Roberts via Oklahoma Radio

Pitt -3
NO -8
OU -13.5
TTU +14
Okie -21
Stanford 20.5
Bama -4.5
Rutgers 2.5 (SU winner)
Arky -5
Michigan -4
Vandy +14
Washington +16.5
ND -13.5
Jets +2
Brasky -17.5
Over 73 Baylor/Mizz

[Mr. IWS]

The Busted Bookie

Randy Denton
5* New Mexico State +34
5* Texas A&M @ Oklahoma - OVER 68.5
5* Rice -1
5* Wake Forest +14

Allen Reese
5* Utah @ Arizona - OVER 52.5
5* Arizona State -8.5
5* Virginia -2
5* Vandy +14

Craig Bryant
5* Ball State @ E. Michigan - OVER 53

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

4* La.-Lafayette -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Joseph D'Amico

Mississippi -1½

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Northwestern +18

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer

3 Unit Play. #349 Take Michigan -4 over Iowa (12:00p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5 ESPN)

4 Unit Play. #356 Take Arkansas -5 over South Carolina (7:15p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5 ESPN)

2 Unit Play. #383 Take Cincinnati -3 ½ over Pittsburgh (7:00p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5 ESPN)

6 Unit Play. #393 Take Over 59 Utah St at Hawaii (12:00a.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
(Total Play of the Year)

3 Unit Play. #393 Take Hawaii -3 ½ over Utah St (12:00a.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Points

6-Unit Play. Take #356 Arkansas (-5) over South Carolina (7:15 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)
College Game of the Month

3-Unit Play. Take #368 Wake Forest (+14) over Notre Dame (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)

3-Unit Play. Take #359 LSU (+4.5) over Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 5)

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe

***CFB November Game of Month***-
6 Unit Play Take #359 'Over' 41.5 LSU/Alabama (8:00pm est)

5 Unit Play Take #396 Navy -6.5 over Troy (3:30pm est)

4 Unit Play Take #372 'Under' 47 Idaho/San Jose St (4:00pm est)

4 Unit Play Take #374 Arizona -3.5 over Utah (7:00pm est)

3 Unit Play Take #399 Florida International -3 over Western Kentucky (4:00pm est)