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[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 21, 2024


Dec. 20, 2024

Race 11 at Fair Grounds | Saturday December 21 | Post Time 6 PM Eastern

Untapable Stakes | Purse $100,000 | Two-Year-Old Fillies | One Mile and 70 Yards

Analysis and top contenders:

The Untapable Stakes is the last race in 2024 for two-year-old fillies who can earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” and is a prep for the next race in the series at Fair Grounds, the Silverbulletday Stakes in four weeks on January 18. Eight promising fillies are entered and seven exit wins in their most recent races so there should be value among a few and no strong betting favorite, making it a good betting race as well as one where we can get a sense of who might improve over the next few months.

Among the seven that won their most recent races, only four earned those wins around two-turns. The rest are stretching out to the distance and/or trying two turns for the first time, and the horses that have run similar distances may have an edge. One of those is California Sunset (5), who finished fourth of eight in her debut around one turn but who improved mightily second time out, at the distance or one mile and one-sixteenth. Blinkers were added for that race and that really helped this filly who moved up swiftly on the far turn, although at least six paths wide to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go. Many horses may have had their energy diminished by that big move, but either because she’s so talented, or because of the blinkers, California Sunset didn’t give an inch the last 220 yards and battled head and head with a rival while remaining in control to win by a neck. That likely took a physical toll on the filly so that’s why she’s been off for two months compared to a shorter time span for many of her rivals. That’s of no concern because she should improve both physically and mentally off that effort in her second two-turn race in a row and third career start. Trainer Bard Cox won the 2023 Untapable with Alpine Princess off a mile and one-sixteenth win one race prior, and with Florent Geroux in the saddle. Geroux rode California Sunset to victory last time out and is aboard again. It must also be noted that her sire, Quality Road, was the sire of Gun Runner Stakes (for males) winner Track Phantom on this date last year, and of 2022 Gun Runner winner Jace’s Road, who was saddled by Brad Cox the same as California Sunset will be today.

Golden Gamble (4) was third behind California Sunset in her debut in late October. Off the experience of that two-turn race, Golden Gamble improved markedly to win one month later by nine lengths. In that race Golden Gamble showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth then moving as she pleased to the lead entering the stretch before being a handy winner. As she is also making her third career start, Golden Gamble has every right to run even better, and she will need to as she moves up from the maiden ranks to stakes competition.

Drexel Hill (8) draws the outside in this eight-horse field, which may be okay as she usually is found fifth or sixth after a quarter mile. Drexel Hill ships down from Canada where she won by six lengths in her most recent race, a nice improvement off her runner-up effort one month earlier. She’s only run on Woodbine’s all-weather surface to date, but she has been working on conventional dirt in Kentucky and Louisiana and appears capable of handling the surface, particularly as a daughter of Bolt d’Oro, whose son Instant Coffee won the Lecomte Stakes (for males on the Derby trail) in January of 2023. In her only two-turn try, Drexel Hill moved up quickly from seventh on the turn to second in the stretch, then didn’t make any more progress. However, in her most recent race the filly improved to make a move from third to first into the stretch before drawing off by six lengths. If she can run similarly well, she could be passing a lot of horses in the late stages in this race.

For the second position on some exacta tickets, we can also consider Amarth (6), who has won two in a row, the most recent of those at one mile and one sixteenth. Although she has the positive experience the other main contenders possess around two turns, her trip when winning last month was a bit easier than either California Sunset or Golden Gamble as Amarth was able to save ground on the rail for most of the race before rallying between horses to win. Just the same, if someone felt she has what it takes to win, I wouldn’t argue.

Bets:

Win Bets – California Sunset (5) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

As to Golden Gamble (4), her starting odds of 5 to 2 make it unlikely she will offer the same value as California Sunset (for a win bet) but we can profit if she wins playing exactas as suggested below.

Drexel Hill (8) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more, for a smaller amount as compared to California Sunset.

Exactas:

Box California Sunset (5) and Golden Gamble (4).

California Sunset (5) and Golden Gamble (4) over California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4), Drexel Hill (8) and Amarth (6).

California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4) and Drexel Hill (8) over California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4), Drexel Hill (8) and Amarth (6).

[ConleyPicks]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - December 21


Dec. 20, 2024

Race #1

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 12:10 PM ET $33,000.00

Race 1 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	7-5	4	Emmett	S Camacho
Place	7-2	6	Cajun Venom	M Meneses
Show	9-5	2	Ozzy	P Morales
Wild card	6-1	7	Juan Colorado	C Gil
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Bingos Grind	A Santos
Alternate 2	6-1	3	Ransom Money	A Gonzalez

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:40 PM ET

Best Bet #1 BOOTSYS MERLOT $18,500.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	3-1	1	Bootsys Merlot	A Santos
Place	2-1	4	Viking Queen	J C Ferrer
Show	9-2	3	Fabulous Candy	P L Cotto Jr.
Wild card	5-2	6	Lady Quinn	M Iorio
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Velocissima	S Camacho
Alternate 2	30-1	7	Auburn	D E Gonzalez

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 1 Mile 40 Yards - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET $17,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	9	Fortune Dreams	S Spanabel
Place	2-1	6	Vino Veloce	P L Cotto Jr.
Show	3-1	7	Tariba Dream	R A Bracho
Wild card	9-2	2	Miss Diz	S Camacho
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Huge G	S Hess
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Lucky in Love	C Gonzalez

Exacta 9-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/9 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:38 PM ET $18,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	3-1	4	Shamu	R D Allen Jr.
Place	7-2	5	Wonderfulvenezuela	C Gil
Show	8-1	2	Humor Sense	M Meneses
Wild card	6-1	3	Bold Look	J L Castanon
Alternate 1	9-2	9	American Peaches	M Almedina
Alternate 2	9-2	1	One Violent Affair	M Iorio

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 1 Mile 40 Yards - Post Time: 02:08 PM ET $18,500.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	2-1	7	Nautilus	A Gonzalez
Place	4-1	4	Shivaree	S Marin
Show	5-2	1	Venezuelan Triumph	M Meneses
Wild card	5-1	9	Funkenstein	S Camacho
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Silent and Violent	J A Batista
Alternate 2	20-1	8	Smooth Player	R Montanez

Exacta 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX

Race #6

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:36 PM ET

Best Bet #5 ENCHANT $53,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	5	Enchant	S Marin
Place	3-1	11	African Waters	H R Diaz Jr.
Show	9-2	10	Americandreammaker	S Camacho
Wild card	12-1	3	Forever Again	M Meneses
Alternate 1	5-2	2	Fleetingly	A A Gallardo
Alternate 2	20-1	6	Mit Monkey	C Oliveros

Exacta 5-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
Trifecta 5/10/11 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:07 PM ET

Best Bet #6 LACE UP $22,000.00

Race 7 Claiming

Win	2-1	6	Lace Up	S Camacho
Place	6-1	3	Bahamian Native	M Iorio
Show	3-1	1	Catire Vizcaya	M Meneses
Wild card	9-2	7	Everdoit	H Villa-Gomez
Alternate 1	10-1	5	Cantaro	A A Gallardo
Alternate 2	5-1	2	Sam Stormy	S Marin

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:38 PM ET $21,500.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	4-1	1	Starship Voyager	H R Diaz Jr.
Place	5-1	2	Cajun Gem	M Meneses
Show	3-1	6	South America	S Camacho
Wild card	8-1	7	The Big Calico	C E Rojas
Alternate 1	5-1	8	Divemaster	A A Gallardo
Alternate 2	7-2	3	Sharons Prince	J A Batista

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:10 PM ET $24,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Claiming

Win	2-1	7	Ms Kendrick B.	S Camacho
Place	5-2	4	Miss Emily	C Gil
Show	9-2	5	Sweet Payne	J C Ferrer
Wild card	6-1	3	Mt. dOro	M Meneses
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Tap Bonnet	H R Diaz Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Chosen Factor	S Spanabel

Exacta 7-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

Race #10

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:40 PM ET $20,000.00

Race 10 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	11	Gap to Gap	M Meneses
Place	8-1	8	Vino Couragio	S Leon
Show	7-2	9	Calvins Ride	P Morales
Wild card	12-1	1	Hyper Venom	R Montanez
Alternate 1	4-1	10	Wolf Beach	S Marin
Alternate 2	10-1	7	New York Fog	J L Castanon

Exacta 11-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
Trifecta 8/9/11 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - December 21


Dec. 20, 2024

Race #1

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:00 PM ET

Best Bet #2 LOUISIANA WILDLIFE $59,000.00

Race 1 Allowance

Win	7-2	2	Louisiana Wildlife	M Murrill
Place	3-1	3	Alvarado Cat	C McMahon
Show	4-1	7	Yockeys Drivethru	J Loveberry
Wild card	8-1	4	Garfish	B Curtis
Alternate 1	6-1	8	Starry Eyed	E M Murray
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Angelic Knight	D Cohen

Exacta 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:30 PM ET $59,000.00

Race 2 Allowance

Win	5-2	8	Undercover Girl	J L Ortiz
Place	3-1	3	Front and Silver	D L Parker
Show	4-1	2	Broadway Pearl	J Barbosa
Wild card	8-1	4	Country Belle	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	10-1	7	Pat Hand Girl	M Murrill
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Betsys All In	C J Hernandez

Exacta 8-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/8 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #3

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:00 PM ET

Best Bet #3 SAND PIPES $59,000.00

Race 3 Allowance

Win	9-2	3	Sand Pipes	J L Ortiz
Place	10-1	2	First Player	E Morales
Show	12-1	12	Coin Miner	J Graham
Wild card	7-2	10	My Boy Tony	L Saez
Alternate 1	3-1	15	Mc Vay	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	4-1	16	Glen Airy	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 3-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/12 BOX, 2/10/12 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:30 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	8-5	4	Tough Catch	L Saez
Place	3-1	6	Countthebrave	J L Ortiz
Show	6-1	3	Doroteo	A Concepcion
Wild card	7-2	5	Contrabandist	C McMahon
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Indian Cat	M Murrill
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Thrilla	J Loveberry

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:00 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	3-1	7	Whata Moon	J L Ortiz
Place	9-5	1	Her Laugh	A Concepcion
Show	7-2	2	Sycamore Shoals	E Morales
Wild card	6-1	4	Simply Joking	J A Torres
Alternate 1	10-1	6	Black Ginger	M Pedroza Jr.
Alternate 2	5-1	3	Gerlins Empire	L Saez

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

Race #6

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:30 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	5-2	1	Lute Warm	F Geroux
Place	7-2	2	Callies Grit	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	9-5	3	Stir Crazy	J L Ortiz
Wild card	5-1	4	Watch This Birdie	J Graham
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Autism Community	D H Magnon
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Join the Dance	L Saez

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:00 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	9-5	5	Admiral Dennis	L Saez
Place	2-1	3	Magnitude	J L Ortiz
Show	7-2	1	Built	C J Lanerie
Wild card	4-1	2	Render Judgment	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	4	Chriss Revenge	J A Torres

Exacta 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

Race #8

Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:30 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	3-1	7	One Timer	E T Baird
Place	4-1	6	Minnesota Ready	D Cannon
Show	9-2	1	Mischievous Rogue	J Loveberry
Wild card	6-1	9	Ambivalent	J Graham
Alternate 1	20-1	2	Bear River	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	6-1	4	Panther Island	L Saez

Exacta 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/7 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	6-1	3	Warrior Johny	J A Torres
Place	5-1	6	Velocitor	D Cohen
Show	8-1	8	Bo Cruz	J Loveberry
Wild card	9-5	7	Saudi Crown	F Geroux
Alternate 1	3-1	1	Track Phantom	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	9-2	2	Kinetic	L Saez

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/8 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX

Race #10

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:30 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	9-5	2	Gigante	J L Ortiz
Place	4-1	6	Another Mystery	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	3-1	3	Swiftsure	L Saez
Wild card	8-1	4	Evan Harlan	E Morales
Alternate 1	9-2	1	Idratherbeblessed	B Curtis
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Tonka Warrior	J Graham

Exacta 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

Race #11

Dirt 1 Mile 70 Yards - Post Time: 06:00 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	6-1	3	Her Laugh	A Concepcion
Place	9-2	5	California Sunset	F Geroux
Show	5-2	4	Golden Gamble	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	8-1	8	Drexel Hill	J A Torres
Alternate 1	7-2	6	Amarth	L Saez
Alternate 2	8-1	7	Paris Lily	J L Ortiz

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

Race #12

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 06:30 PM ET

Best Bet #3 LIMITED EDITION $58,000.00

Race 12 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	3	Limited Edition	D Cannon
Place	6-1	5	Yinzer	J Loveberry
Show	9-2	1	Morlock	L Saez
Wild card	8-1	9	Seattle Road	M Pedroza Jr.
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Redacted	E Morales
Alternate 2	10-1	10	Fever Night	C J Hernandez

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - December 21


Dec. 20, 2024

Race #1

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:30 PM ET $60,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-5	7	Bolts Treasure	R Bejarano
Place	10-1	2	Major Mack	M Chuan
Show	3-1	3	Riyadh Moon	K J Asmussen
Wild card	8-1	6	My Kid Syd	C Murphy
Alternate 1	20-1	9	Cowboy Code	T W Bacon
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Dr. Storm	J R Leparoux

Exacta 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/7 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:58 PM ET

Best Bet #6 CHAPARRITA $33,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	3-1	6	Chaparrita	C A Torres
Place	10-1	3	Marinas Gold	H Hernandez
Show	5-2	1A	Be My Bestie	R A Vazquez
Wild card	15-1	9	Blazingly	J M Romero
Alternate 1	5-2	1	Icy River	R Bowen
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Milliganmikeandme	T W Bacon

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:26 PM ET

Best Bet #5 SIMOVIC $110,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-1	5	Simovic	F Arrieta
Place	3-1	6	What a Blessing	C A Torres
Show	8-5	3	Devilish Desire	H Hernandez
Wild card	7-2	4	Gypsy Mischief	R A Vazquez
Alternate 1	15-1	8	Baddest Good Boy	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	1	Lambo	E Asmussen

Exacta 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:54 PM ET

Best Bet #10 MONGOLIAN BEE $32,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	5-2	10	Mongolian Bee	C A Torres
Place	8-1	2	Smokin Hot	A Pusac
Show	10-1	1	Principe Carlo	R A Vazquez
Wild card	3-1	3	Worth Looking	M Chuan
Alternate 1	15-1	8	You Vee Cee	F Arrieta
Alternate 2	12-1	9	Pinky Ring Bling	H Hernandez

Exacta 10-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/10 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:22 PM ET $110,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	8-5	4	I Got Game	C A Torres
Place	6-1	7	Stormy At Midnight	E Esquivel
Show	3-1	8	Pine Tree Rocket	K J Asmussen
Wild card	6-1	2	Gateskeeper	F Arrieta
Alternate 1	5-1	5	Nastinate	E Asmussen
Alternate 2	30-1	6	Dune a Vetta	R Bowen

Exacta 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:50 PM ET $67,000.00

Race 6 Starter Allowance

Win	8-5	6	Sister Kisses	R A Vazquez
Place	2-1	4	Intermittent Fast	I Castillo
Show	10-1	2	Timbavati	F Jara
Wild card	20-1	1	Loveland	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 1	4-1	8	Malibu Smart	R Bejarano
Alternate 2	10-1	3	True Princess	T Wales

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:18 PM ET $130,000.00

Race 7 Allowance

Win	5-1	11	Miracle Worker	R A Vazquez
Place	3-1	7	Risk It	K J Asmussen
Show	12-1	13	Go Captain	C A Torres
Wild card	9-2	9	Red Pill	C A Torres
Alternate 1	4-1	3	Plausible Denile	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	30-1	2	Pass Line	E Esquivel

Exacta 11-7 BOX, 7-13 BOX, 13-9 BOX
Trifecta 7/11/13 BOX, 7/9/13 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:46 PM ET $130,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	15-1	4	Empire Builder	R Bowen
Place	9-5	7	Ethereal Road	R A Vazquez
Show	6-1	1	Raise Cain	C A Torres
Wild card	2-1	8	Denington	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Osbourne	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	5-1	2	Blue Devil	K J Asmussen

Exacta 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/7 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:14 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	15-1	6	Pistol	F Arrieta
Place	8-5	7	Spirit Wind	F Jara
Show	12-1	8	Asternia	R A Vazquez
Wild card	4-1	12	Royal Spa	C A Torres
Alternate 1	12-1	2	Holly Dolly	I V Diego
Alternate 2	9-2	1	Fibber	R Bejarano

Exacta 6-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-12 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/8 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX

Race #10

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:40 PM ET $130,000.00

Race 10 Allowance

Win	7-2	2	Brahms Image	W De La Cruz
Place	3-1	12	Als Romeo	C A Torres
Show	15-1	3	Choctaw Zip	H Hernandez
Wild card	8-1	1	Landlord	K J Asmussen
Alternate 1	5-1	8	Cybertown	R A Vazquez
Alternate 2	8-1	10	Miri a Coincidence	T Wales

Exacta 2-12 BOX, 12-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/12 BOX, 1/3/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - December 21


Dec. 20, 2024

Race #1

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:55 PM ET $29,900.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	10	Coach Clint	A Jimenez
Place	5-2	1	Jujubee	G Corrales
Show	8-1	11	Candy Boy	A Cedillo
Wild card	15-1	12	Catman Tomkins	S Doyle
Alternate 1	15-1	9	Blakelys Boy	S Sanjur
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Howya Getting On	I Moncada

Exacta 10-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX, 11-12 BOX
Trifecta 1/10/11 BOX, 1/11/12 BOX

Race #2

All Weather Track 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:25 PM ET

Best Bet #8 JUNOESQUE $24,700.00

Race 2 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-2	8	Junoesque	W A Rodriguez
Place	5-1	5	Queen Berkeley	A Cedillo
Show	8-1	2	Mo Sashay	Y L Correa
Wild card	15-1	10	Prison Bound	C Roman
Alternate 1	15-1	7	No Body Loves Me	O Villarreal
Alternate 2	3-1	3	No Show	A Beschizza

Exacta 8-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/8 BOX, 2/5/10 BOX

Race #3

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:55 PM ET $27,800.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	6-1	14	Tap the Candy	V Lebron
Place	5-1	7	Beware of Pride	A Jimenez
Show	7-2	4	Artwell	Y L Correa
Wild card	6-1	1	Ricky Wannabe	A Cedillo
Alternate 1	3-1	10	Might as Well	G Corrales
Alternate 2	6-1	11	Jammin Justice	I Moncada

Exacta 14-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/14 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

Race #4

All Weather Track 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 07:25 PM ET $21,600.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	3-1	2	Tough as Nails	I Moncada
Place	15-1	12	Isa Lei	Y L Correa
Show	15-1	13	Sandrinha Love	C Roman
Wild card	20-1	8	Paddy Gal	A Bendezu
Alternate 1	12-1	3	Golden Storm	J Padron-Barcenas
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Juicy Justice	A P Ulloa

Exacta 2-12 BOX, 12-13 BOX, 13-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/12/13 BOX, 8/12/13 BOX

Race #5

All Weather Track 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 07:55 PM ET $80,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	8	Publicity	I Moncada
Place	5-2	5	Walstib	A Achard
Show	10-1	13	Fayette Spirit	V Cheminaud
Wild card	6-1	4	Sweet Freedom	A Beschizza
Alternate 1	15-1	11	Basilio	G Corrales
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Alrasikh	J D Ramos

Exacta 8-5 BOX, 5-13 BOX, 13-4 BOX
Trifecta 5/8/13 BOX, 4/5/13 BOX

Race #6

All Weather Track 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:25 PM ET

Best Bet #8 EPIC RIDE $83,000.00

Race 6 Allowance

Win	2-1	8	Epic Ride	A Beschizza
Place	7-2	4	Bowstreet	E A Roman
Show	4-1	2	Alwaysintomischief	A Cedillo
Wild card	5-1	1	B D Valeski	G Saez
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Covey	V Cheminaud
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Gavel	G Corrales

Exacta 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

Race #7

All Weather Track 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:55 PM ET $86,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	6-1	10	Purr Sea	F De La Cruz
Place	9-2	8	Kissed by Fire	V Cheminaud
Show	12-1	11	Lureem In	I Moncada
Wild card	4-1	5	B G Warrior	A Achard
Alternate 1	7-2	9	Current Climate	A Cedillo
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Gracelund Gray	C Roman

Exacta 10-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX
Trifecta 8/10/11 BOX, 5/8/11 BOX

Race #8

All Weather Track 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:25 PM ET $35,000.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	10-1	3	Jrs Gift	T Canuto
Place	8-5	10	Asmodeus	G Corrales
Show	3-1	9	O Captain	S Gonzalez
Wild card	10-1	2	Cabernaydo	J D Ramos
Alternate 1	15-1	12	Orbi One	I Moncada
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Boones Path	S Sanjur

Exacta 3-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/9/10 BOX, 2/9/10 BOX

Race #9

All Weather Track 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 09:55 PM ET

Best Bet #1 CREEK $24,700.00

Race 9 Maiden Claiming

Win	2-1	1	Creek	A Achard
Place	12-1	12	Chachaching	Y Aviles
Show	5-2	9	As One Does	L Contreras
Wild card	10-1	3	Gagliardi	F De La Cruz
Alternate 1	10-1	7	Uncle Tuffy	A Calleja
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Collator	G Ashton

Exacta 1-12 BOX, 12-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/9/12 BOX, 3/9/12 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 21


Dec. 20, 2024

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (2) Saltwater Taffy was a nice second last time and has worked well for this race. (4) Uncaptured Dove switches to turf and adds Irad. (8) Tiz Ready has speed and could be tough to catch. (5) Vino Frizzante should be competitive on turf. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-8.

3rd race – (1) Senor Marcelo was third in his debut and gets a good boost switching from a 7-pound bug to Irad. (8) Into Pleasure tired and finishing sixth in his debut in mud. May improve on a dry track. (9) Tucson is an interesting firster from Pletcher. (2) Wistucky has enough speed to pose a problem for his rivals. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-8-9.

6th race – (2) Governing Party had some trouble last time and can bounce back with a winning effort here. (10) Cipher was third in his debut and seems to be the one to fear. (5) No More War should be well-suited by turf. (11) Cyber Security could be a factor in his initial start. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-10-11.

10th race – (10) Arzak gets some class relief after running in the Breeders’ Cup and looks best here. (11) Coppola could work out a nice trip from an outside post. (6) Okiro may respond to a switch back to turf. (1) Masseto may benefit from a rail trip. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-10-11. Doubles: 1-6-10-11 with 1-2-3-4.

11^th race - (1) Tuscan Sky was second in a New York stakes and should get the win here. (2) Tumbarumba is ultra consistent but tends to finish second. (4) Digital Ops is worth a look in his first start for Joseph. (3) Cape Trafalgar cannot be ignored in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 2	$1 WPS / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-4) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-5)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $59,000 • Post: 12:30
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MO SMOKING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MO SMOKING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. UNDERCOVER GIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FRONT AN D SILVER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BROADWAY PEARL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SUE'S LITTLE ZING: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace.
5	MO SMOKING	8/1	7/2
8	UNDERCOVER GIRL	5/2	9/1
3	FRONT AND SILVER	3/1	9/1
2	BROADWAY PEARL	4/1	9/1
9	SUE'S LITTLE ZING	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MO SMOKING	5	8/1	Front-runner	79	78	58.4	69.6	67.6
8	UNDERCOVER GIRL	8	5/2	Stalker	71	74	68.9	68.9	60.4
9	SUE'S LITTLE ZING	9	12/1	Stalker	80	77	57.2	59.6	51.6
3	FRONT AND SILVER	3	3/1	Stalker	78	81	38.0	61.0	54.0
7	PAT HAND GIRL	7	10/1	Trailer	78	61	48.4	65.4	55.9
2	BROADWAY PEARL	2	4/1	Trailer	78	77	42.2	62.7	53.7
1	BETSY'S ALL IN	1	12/1	Trailer	64	63	39.9	53.9	38.4
4	COUNTRY BELLE	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	60	58.8	56.9	39.9
6	SMART IZZY	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	69	46.0	57.6	44.6

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Oaklawn Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:18pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $130,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#9 RED PILL (ML=9/2)
#3 PLAUSIBLE DENILE (ML=4/1)
#7 RISK IT (ML=3/1)


RED PILL - This gelding is a gem of consistency, almost always in the top three. PLAUSIBLE DENILE - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (sixth). Should rebound in this event, with some decent odds. RISK IT - This colt is in good condition, having run a good race on November 23rd, finishing second. A repeat of that latest race on November 23rd where he earned a speed figure of 100 looks strong enough to triumph in this affair. The improved speed figures over the last three races is solid. Asmussen drops him in this event fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 MIRACLE WORKER (ML=5/1), #1 WENDELSSOHN (ML=6/1), #5 ROWDY RIOT (ML=8/1),

MIRACLE WORKER - This colt hasn't had any recent good fortune in sprint races. No picnic to bet on him in this event. WENDELSSOHN - Not easy to back any steed in a short distance affair if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months. ROWDY RIOT - This colt didn't show me enough down the stretch run to warrant backing against stronger opponents.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 RED PILL is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,7,9] with [3,7,9] with [3,7,9,13,14] with [3,7,9,13,14] Total Cost: $36

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24700 Class Rating: 79

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $10,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 14 TRAP LINE 3/1
# 3 GAGLIARDI 10/1
# 4 LUCKY SEVEN 20/1

My selection in this race is TRAP LINE. This colt has to be given consideration just off the earnings per start in dirt route contests alone. LUCKY SEVEN - Should go to the lead and might never look back. Last time out, this gelding ran against a much tougher field.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 4	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) /10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7) 20 cent RAINBOW PICK 6 (RACES 4-5-6-7-8-9)
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 109 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 1:54P
HOWARD AND SONDRA BENDER MEMORIAL S. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. (REGISTERED MD-BRED OR MD-SIRED) WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $375 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $375 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $75,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS: THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF AN OPEN SWEEPSTAKES IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A RESTRICTED SWEEPSTAKES IN 2024, 4 LBS.; NON-WINNERS OF $30,000ONCE IN 2024, 6 LBS. (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). TROPHY TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2024 WITH 20 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CELTIC CONTENDER is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CELTIC CONTENDER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BRILLIANT ICE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WITTY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase C lass Rating at the distance/surface. SEVEN'S ELEVEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	CELTIC CONTENDER	5/2	3/1
2	BRILLIANT ICE	7/2	7/1
7	WITTY	2/1	9/1
5	SEVEN'S ELEVEN	10/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SEVEN'S ELEVEN	5	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	102	102	82.0	94.6	89.6
3	CELTIC CONTENDER	3	5/2	Stalker	107	105	86.8	103.6	96.1
1	FREEZE THE FIRE	1	15/1	Stalker	104	92	67.6	86.4	75.9
2	BRILLIANT ICE	2	7/2	Stalker	105	108	60.0	89.8	84.8
6	PLAY LIKE A RAVEN	6	9/2	Trailer	94	91	52.0	92.4	80.9
7	WITTY	7	2/1	Trailer	106	104	38.3	96.1	91.1
4	CIRCLE P	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	102	91	72.6	94.6	83.6

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $53000 Class Rating: 90

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ENCHANT 3/1
# 10 AMERICANDREAMMAKER 9/2
# 2 FLEETINGLY 5/2

I think ENCHANT is a competitive choice. Has performed admirably lately in route races, posting a nifty 86 avg speed figure. With Marin getting the mount, watch out for this pony. Ought to be considered here if only for the very good speed rating earned in the last contest. AMERICANDREAMMAKER - Her 86 average has this filly with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures for this event. Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the difference to a return. FLEETINGLY - Is a definite contender - given the 93 Equibase Speed Fig from her most recent race. She should be carefully examined given the solid speed figures.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts






Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:16pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#10 BEECHNUT TROPHY (ML=8/1)
#1 DONTMESSWITHTESS (ML=9/2)


BEECHNUT TROPHY - Aboard this animal on October 19th and Vasquez is back again in the irons in today's contest. Ranks highest in earnings per start (EPS). A powerful try today will boost the lifetime total. DONTMESSWITHTESS - This mare is very familiar with the winner's circle at Gulfstream Park. I expect a repeat performance right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CABERNET (ML=3/1), #8 UNRELENTLESS (ML=7/2), #9 DON'T GET PICKLED (ML=5/1),

CABERNET - Don't believe this less than sharp equine has what it takes to be victorious in today's event. UNRELENTLESS - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, she will have to record a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt route. DON'T GET PICKLED - This mount likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually finish on top. Forget the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #10 BEECHNUT TROPHY to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
6	6	BEHEST	5/2	Page, Chris - 15	479.78
5	5	IRREPLACEABLE	5/1	Hanners, Austin - 8	472.82
3	3	ROCK UR WINGS	5/1	Tetrick, Trace - 4	452.85
4	4	GO TELL MURPH	15/1	Smith, Trevor - 9	450.63
2	2	LADY BRIDGERTON	4/1	Smith, Jeremy - 19	447.11
7	7	FOREVER FARAH	15/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 8	445.06
1	1	BRIDGE OF LOVE	7/2	Noble, Dan - 27	441.97
8	8	GRACEFUL GALA	20/1	Widger, Sam - 12	430.56
9	9	FOUND MY ROCK	20/1	Sutton, Josh - 10	417.80

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 6:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$6500 - FILLIES & MARES 2024 CONDITIONED MINI SERIES NON WINNERS $750 PER START IN 2024

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 BEARCREEKHONEY 5/2
# 1 ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX 3/1
# 4 TRE ROCK 4/1

The contender today is BEARCREEKHONEY. Wrenn and Kreiser have a formidable working relationship. Top notch results from their races. With very good win numbers, Wrenn should have this mare in excellent position to win the competition. This race horse has been making trips to the winner's circle on a regular basis, look for her to make another appearance soon. ACEFOURTYFOUR ALEX - This solid standardbred looks very good considering the high class statistics. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. This entrant will have to be a wager, based on the great driver/handler win statistic. TRE ROCK - This interesting entrant may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise. Her 76 avg has this mare among the best speed figures in this race.