Sunday 12/22/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Fair Grounds - 12/22/24

December 22, 2024

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Fair Grounds

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Fair Grounds Race 6: Post: 3:15 CT Grade: A-
Top Selection/Prime Play: 9-Darrow

Forecast: Just a few days short of turning four years old, Darrow finally makes it to the races and though late to the party may prove to be a worth the wait. The Uncle Mo colt from the dam of Grade-1 winner Matareya has done some exceptional work leading up to his unveiling, and without a whole lot to beat in this straight maiden dash for older horses he should be expected to win at first asking. The B. Cox-trained colt is a Godolphin homebred with immense potential, so if you can get close to his morning line of 3-1 you’ll be getting plenty of wagering value.

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Fair Grounds Race 7: Post: 3:45 CT Grade: B+
Top Selection/Prime Play: 3-Tom’s Magic

Forecast: Tom’s Magic was given an easy run in his debut last month while staying on nicely to be a distant second behind a hot shot first timer while well clear of the rest over this course and distance. With that bit of education behind him, he’ll be much more serious today, and if he can produce the kind of forward move we’re expecting the son of Justify should be set to graduate. A nice breeze since that race is another strong indicator for a barn that has solid stats with second timers, so this $200,000 weanling purchase seems like a solid investment at or near his morning line of 9/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:55 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

December 22, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 16-race card, and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Vel Mr Steve (5-1)-Took advantage of a quick pace and rolled home at 27-1. Consistent check casher doesn't look out of place after drawing the rail. Does step up but is competitive and should offer a square price.
6-Why Tomorrow Ray (2-1)-Has been trying hard against stiff competition. Aaron Merriman gets the call for the Bill Rhoades barn and could have his way with this field. Should get the top or the 2-hole when the wings fold.

Race 12 (9:42 PM EST)

5-Fame And Power (4-1)-Took off from the rail in last but faded down the lane. Willing to excuse the collapse on a sloppy track. Wet track record is 0-24, tonight Justine Irvine could get on the point and this time he will make every call a winning one.
9-Oberlin (5/2)-This veteran, like the entire field does not like to win. Broke stride 2 back and raced better with Merriman at the controls in last on a sloppy track. Should offer a fair price and faces a soft bunch. Will use with the positive driver change and coming off an improved effort.

Race 13 (10:04 PM EST)

1-Twin B Fighter (7/2)-Pocono invader hasn't raced since 11-23 but has banked over $89k this year. Ronnie Wrenn grabs the lines for the Nfld debut. When Wrenn and Kresier team up they click for 38% winners and can add to that total if fires hot off the bench.
3-Brooklyns Carmine (8-1)-Won 2 back versus this kind, then had a bumpy trip on a sloppy track and fell short but raced well. Looking for an aggressive steer and Kurt Sugg could provide a winning trip with this post draw.

Race 14 (10:26 PM EST)

2-Dougs Jaxx (9/2)-Winner of 2 of the last 3 starts steps up and should be a player. Merriman could provide a cozy trip and double up. Will look to this recent winner and fade the program chalk #3.
5-JW'S Chrome (3-1)-The Holzman trainee makes its 2nd start after a sick scratch and knows how to beat this kind. Could be sitting on a big try and might be overlooked at the windows.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,6/5,9/1,3/2,5
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:55 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3

#1 Mrs. Mendelssohn	She chased the whole way in stakes company at Delta last out after an easy graduation run in October, and she might end up tucked into a pretty great spot on the fence if she likes the turf. You've got two or three potential forward players and a prompting runner drawn outside, so I'm hoping all that unfolds just in front of this one before she sneaks through.
#2 Serving Time	Might not have seen her best yet after the improved effort cutting back last out, and she's another who should be able to choose a decent enough spying spot while not losing touch with the quicker players early.
#5 Afternoon Diva	Bit worried that she's got a little heat lined up outside of her, but she has been an ace on the engine in both of her lifetime turf starts, so I wouldn't argue with anyone take a 'don't fix something that's working' approach and went right back here.
Race Summary	#7 Lady Orient is another with some appeal for a team that does well in these kinds of spots. Still, I'm going to lean heavily on the potential for good inside trip with the top choice.

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#6 Jocasta	She couldn't find a whole lot in the lane last out, but she looks likely to be in a good spot to control things either right up top again or while pressing the stretchout player drawn two stalls outside of her. They're only going to line up with eight on the lawn, and she might build up a big enough lead into the lane today.
#7 Paint Me Perfect	She's a pretty honest finisher, but her style always leaves her susceptible to coming along too late. She finished ahead of the top choice when they met last out, so I'm looking back to that race as a key one for this group.
#4 Trail Ridge Road	All the good form on her page right now has come at Hawthorne, so there are some obvious questions to answer today. That said, she's capable of something better than the dud last out, and the price might be OK.
Race Summary	Jocasta gets the edge for me today at a midrange price while racing right up on the pace, and I'm mostly trying to stand against stakes dropper #3 Lakota Spirit who could be along too late.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#6 El Maximo	The barn hasn't been a real ROI builder in these types of spots, but I liked his debut race quite a bit. He caught a tough speed winner from a Rivelli barn who was back to win here on Monday, and he went flat after making a move into that guy's pace on the turn. Might sit a pretty perfect trip while stretching out as Declan Cannon takes over -- he has been the best turf route rider here for your dollar so far this season.
#11 Windtalker	Guessing we will see something much better today after this one briefly chased, faded, and went right to the sidelines after the debut in a key Ellis dirt race. Worth noting that Ortiz rides the barn's other entrant one stall out, but this one might fly under the radar a bit.
#13 High Ceiling	He'll need a scratch to draw in, but he's got the kind of one-paced route runs that eventually turn into something a bit more threatening, and I like that he showed a tiny bit of late interest last out. Playable if he goes.
Race Summary	Super fun race. Build your case and go for it. Others I want to take a look at and have in the deeper spots in the exotics -- #10 Frosty Blue, #9 Reteko and #5 Kayaan.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:56 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $37,000 • Post: 3:19P
GP - R7 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * JOINT RESOLUTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LONGBRANCH LOU: Horse has th e highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CARENTAN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. RACKET: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NEVER SAY NEVER: Horse has run a Good Race within t he last 30 days.
4	JOINT RESOLUTION	5/2	5/1
5	LONGBRANCH LOU	9/5	5/1
6	CARENTAN	12/1	9/1
2	RACKET	30/1	9/1
1	NEVER SAY NEVER	5/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	GIURO	8	30/1	Front-runner	77	71	93.8	67.5	53.5
9	GUAICAIPURO	9	20/1	Front-runner	77	81	90.1	66.4	54.4
2	RACKET	2	30/1	Front-runner	81	81	82.5	80.6	63.6
10	NOBLE TIGER	10	10/1	Front-runner	81	81	75.8	76.8	69.8
11	CHROMOTION	11	20/1	Stalker	83	72	94.5	72.4	57.9
7	LOU THE BODY	7	12/1	Stalker	67	64	89.1	65.4	46.4
4	JOINT RESOLUTION	4	5/2	Stalker	85	78	84.7	76.9	71.4
1	NEVER SAY NEVER	1	5/1	Stalker	84	77	69.8	71.2	62.2
5	LONGBRANCH LOU	5	9/5	Stalker	79	78	67.8	78.4	73.9
6	CARENTAN	6	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	77	82.2	74.0	62.5
3	GO BILLY GO	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	71	69.2	73.5	59.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:56 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Late Double
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 8:16P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * UNAWARE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ROSE BEAUKAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface. DELUXE CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUPER SIXXY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	UNAWARE	2/1	9/2
5	ROSE BEAUKAY	3/1	5/1
3	DELUXE CARTEL	9/2	7/1
1	SUPER SIXXY	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUPER SIXXY	1	4/1	Average	69	58	4.6	0.0	0.0
2	ALEXIA CZECH	2	6/1	Average/Trouble-prone	69	54	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	DELUXE CARTEL	3	9/2	Slow/Trouble-prone	74	62	6.9	0.0	0.0
4	UNAWARE	4	2/1	Slow	81	67	7.1	0.0	0.0
5	ROSE BEAUKAY	5	3/1	Slow	80	63	8.6	0.0	0.0
6	CHANGE UP	6	6/1	Slow	58	53	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 CACTUS (ML=8/1)
#6 SUNSET TOWN (ML=5/1)

CACTUS - Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Laurel. The move down in the class scale should suit him well. This horse didn't run well on a muddy track in his last race at Laurel. You may want to discount that performance. Another way to identify class is earnings per start. This horse has the uppermost in the group. I think he'll be close at the finish. SUNSET TOWN - Gelding's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DOLICE VITA (ML=8/5), #7 MONSTER MASON (ML=9/2),

DOLICE VITA - Going to have a tough go of it with all of the other front-runners in this event. Recorded a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last out in the Maryland Million Classic on Oct 12th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure. MONSTER MASON - Hard to play a mount that can't even win one time in his last ten races. You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he falls short regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 CACTUS to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[3,6] with [3,6] with [1,4,5,7,10] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,6] with [3,6] with [1,4,10] with [1,4,5,7,10] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $59000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 5 AND 1/2

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LADY ORIENT 6/1
# 3 WAUNEKA 7/2
# 2 SERVING TIME (GB) 3/1

LADY ORIENT could be the bet in here. This animal has some longshot handicapping angles going for her. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the most recent company kept. Looks decent for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in turf sprint races lately. WAUNEKA - This horse enters today's outing with second time Lasix. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 71 - of her last race. SERVING TIME (GB) - This filly has a very good win percentage in turf sprint races. Win percentage with this rider and conditioner combo - 25 percent - solid.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:57 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 22 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $27,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ALWAY'S COMERIO 5/2
# 4 ETHICAL LADY 3/1
# 5 MAMA LOU 2/1

I think ALWAY'S COMERIO is a strong choice. Could best this group here, showing solid figs of late. This mare has a very good win percent in dirt sprint races. Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back. ETHICAL LADY - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at her. Has strong Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. MAMA LOU - Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of quite good win percentage - 28 percent - at this distance & surface. With a strong 72 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-22-2024, 10:57 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:49pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#3 BRINGER OF RAIN (ML=5/1)
#8 NAVY CROSS (ML=3/1)

BRINGER OF RAIN - The December 14th affair at Gulfstream Park was at a class level of (93). Dropping to a lower class rank drastically, so he should be in a good spot. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should improve in this field, with some pretty decent odds. This gelding is in nice condition. Finished fifth on December 14th. Just view his last speed rating, 87. That one fits in this field. NAVY CROSS - Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation. You always have to be on the lookout for money generating jockey/conditioner duos; we have one right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BIRD WILDCAT (ML=9/5), #6 SUPREME DOMINANCE (ML=7/2), #2 ROYAL ACT (ML=6/1),

BIRD WILDCAT - This vulnerable equine ran a disappointing speed figure last out. He shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's race running that number. SUPREME DOMINANCE - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better fig than in the last race to battle in this dirt route. ROYAL ACT - Not likely that the speed rating he garnered on December 14th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 BRINGER OF RAIN to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip