Monday 12/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

December 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 16-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:20 PM EST)

2-Annapolis Hanover (2-1)-This 4-year-old has missed time and appears to have issues but has speed. Not loving the small price in its Nfld debut but should be a player if dialed on high.
5-Dojea Rock (9-1)-This veteran has hit the board in 8 of 12 at Nfld with 3 pictures and comes off 2 big tries from outside posts. Should fit with this group and is well worth a swing at the morning line price.
9-Vague Traces (4-1)-Shouldn't blush at anyone in this field and could get an efficient trip. Can follow the 2 inside horses off the gate as they have some gate speed. This looks like a suck-around win opportunity.

Race 12 (9:42 PM EST)

3-Hitwiththeguy's (8/5)-This is the slight morning line chalk, the 9/5 2nd favorite is #2. This mare will be a small price who drew off last time, and should fit well with this crew. Comes right back and the race probably goes through the 5-year-old who should like the inside draw.
5-Bo Nanza Chip (8-1)-Raced a lot better than the last line looked on a snowy track. Battled to get the top racing 1st over and was game until breaking at the top of the stretch. This field is a bit tougher but could be overlooked and would also consider using in gimmicks.

Race 13 (10:04 PM EST)

1-Power Sweet (5-1)-Got a wide trip in last on a "good" track and came off cover but the fractions were not lively. Tried to go gate to wire 2 back leaving from the rail. That could be the plan but might end up in the pocket behind the program chalk #4, and that could work well too.
4-Barbados (2-1)-Drops after moving up and finishing 4th. The Kreiser veteran has the gate speed to get the top and Hunter Myers could look to control the mile. Does good work at Nfld (7-4-1-1) and should be the one to beat.

Race 14 (10:26 PM EST)

1-Wattastory (7/5)-This will be the 2nd start for the Krieser barn after finishing 2nd on 12-17 leaving from post 8. Has been sharp, likes to get on the engine and should be tough to tackle.
4-Roc Vodka (5-1)-The 3-year-old has been very good the last 2 at this level. Faces some older foes, might be overlooked and the Schillaci barn is starting to make some noise.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,5,9/3,5/1,4/1,4
Total Bets=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:23 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#12 Jedi's Way	He should get a nice run of things while turning back today, and he flashed a little bit of pace in a couple of OK sprint tries earlier in his career. Might prompt his way to a score from out here with the locals.
#9 Klimtster	He has never been a serious threat, but there's a Belterra try on his page from July that might do the trick if he's able to get back to something like it here. He was in too deep with special weight company here a couple starts back, but a wake-up call wouldn't shock at this level.
#1 Vegas Black Jack	He wasn't bet like a hopeless longshot in the career debut, but he trailed throughout and dropped out of it entirely. He plummets from that Churchill special weight into this basement local spot for $5,000 while adding blinkers -- do with him what you will. He won't have to be much to win, but I don't have any strong positive feelings here.
Race Summary	Jedi's Way comes in from Tampa with decent enough form to think he can handle this bad bunch. Vegas Black Jack wouldn't be a shock on a huge class drop with blinkers, but I feel like there are still a lot of red flags to deal with.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#2 Class Actor	He's a class question for sure, but I am not sure he got a fair shake when trying allowance company earlier in the season. He's not the most serious early burner you're going to find, but he does have enough pace on his page to think he can control the tempo here and potentially get a big enough jump to hold.
#6 Blue Max	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here after a couple competitive tries with similar, but I have a mild worry about the overall race shape today. One of the ones, but not sure the price is going to be that appealing.
#1 Excitement	He has a similar style and set of recent efforts as Blue Max, but he has been just behind that one in both of his last two. He's occasionally a touch more tactical, and that might serve him well from the fence in a race without a ton of super serious speed.
Race Summary	Class Actor has some occasional pace that very few of these can flash, so I'm hoping he gets an aggressive ride out of the gate to establish command and just walk them home from there.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 My Suzie Q	I liked her two-back run a little bit, and she might end up in a pretty sweet spot while tucked in behind the pace players as they cross over. Punches home on the cutback?
#5 Vegas Love	Both sprint tries have been sharp, and her tactical pace will likely leave her in a good spot while a couple quicker players settle the earliest score. Price probably gets some type of short, but no arguments from me here otherwise.
#2 Redwineandwhiskey	She is another who should be in a good spot heading into the turn, but she doesn't always kick home with a whole lot of enthusiasm and could be vulnerable to giving away her spot late. Not out of the question.
Race Summary	My Suzie Q ran on well going short last month before just failing to stay in that route try -- think she'll put everything together today from close range.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:23 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #3

#6 FOREST ACCLAMATION (8-1)	In top form, should be forwardly placed throughout, good price.
#2 ENGLISH DANGER (7-2)	Lone two-time grass winner drops to proper level in second start off claim.
#3 LUNAR UNIT (5-1)	Will be running late, extra half-furlong should help.
Race Summary	FOREST ACCLAMATION validated an improved effort on the turf two starts back with a third-place finish in a 12-horse field. She should sit a good trip from just off the pace in her third start of a current cycle. Bet to win and place and play 6-2, 6-3 and 6-4 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#3 WELCOMETOHOLLYWOOD (3-1)	Stakes winner in Canada hit board in pair of local allowances.
#4 SAPELLO LA FINA (5-1)	Stakes-placed at Emerald Downs, had excuse against ‘Hollywood.’
#5 LITTLE BIT TIPSY (6-1)	Chased top pair while losing ground on the turn, third start locally.
Race Summary	WELCOMETOHOLLYWOOD couldn’t beat the repeat-winning favorite to the lead, but she was wide on the backstretch, 4-wide on the turn and finished third. She earned a playback upon exiting the allowance ranks. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#10 HICKORY WIND (3-1)	Gets in light, takes some catching at distance which he conquered twice.
#9 DR. VINNIE BOOMBATZ (6-1)	Earned top speed fig in first start at TuP, can pay off quickly on claim.
#1 OUTOFQUEMADO (4-1)	Proven miler has done his best running from inner posts.
Race Summary	HICKORY WIND pressed a solid pace and tired at one mile as his record fell to 2-for-29. But he should have little trouble getting on or near the lead through slower fractions despite starting from post 10. He has a runaway win at one mile to summon on the class drop. Bet to win and place and play a 9, 10/1, 9, 10/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Futurity • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 1:08P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, AQRA QUARTER HORSE F. - FOR TWO YEAR OLD ARIZONA BRED CERTIFIED OR STALLION NOMINATED WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED FOR THE 2024 AQRA FUTURITY. (PURSE INCLUDES $22,400 FROM THE PURSE ACCOUNT PLUS $15,000 FROM THE ARIZONA BREEDERS). PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 50%-20%-10%-6%-4%-3%-2.5%-2%-1.5%-1%. STARTERS TO PASS ENTRY BOX BY USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (CONTACT THE AQRA FOR SUBSCRIPTION DATES AND FEES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SAY SOMTHING: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. FOUR SWEET KID: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surfa ce (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. HANDYWITHTHESTEEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SWE ET FIRE WES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
5	SAY SOMTHING	4/1	9/2
4	FOUR SWEET KID	9/2	9/2
7	HANDYWITHTHESTEEL	10/1	9/1
8	SWEET FIRE WES	3/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TELL AMERICA	1	6/1	Average	69	64	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	RIDE EM COWBOY	2	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	66	66	7.5	0.0	0.0
3	FANCEY LIKE	3	5/1	Average	75	66	3.8	0.0	0.0
4	FOUR SWEET KID	4	9/2	Fast	79	79	2.2	0.0	0.0
5	SAY SOMTHING	5	4/1	Fast	80	79	2.3	0.0	0.0
6	WHISKEY TALKIN	6	8/1	Average/Trouble-prone	73	72	5.0	0.0	0.0
7	HANDYWITHTHESTEEL	7	10/1	Average	77	68	3.8	0.0	0.0
8	SWEET FIRE WES	8	3/1	Fast	69	70	2.5	0.0	0.0
9	JD DASH JR	9	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	77	72	4.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 2-3-4)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 1:12P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR ENTERED TO BE CLAIMED FOR $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. R THREE ANGELS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEEDED: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power R ating. SOMEDAY IS TODAY: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. R THREE ANGELS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. KITTEN CALLS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	NEEDED	3/1	5/1
6	SOMEDAY IS TODAY	8/5	6/1
3	R THREE ANGELS	6/1	7/1
4	KITTEN CALLS	9/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	R THREE ANGELS	3	6/1	Front-runner	90	74	72.2	60.6	52.1
7	NEEDED	7	3/1	Stalker	83	83	83.4	84.4	77.4
6	SOMEDAY IS TODAY	6	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	82	81	87.3	78.3	69.8
5	TIZ INDEPENDENCE	5	8/1	Trailer	80	75	76.2	73.6	66.1
4	KITTEN CALLS	4	9/2	Trailer	87	83	54.1	69.1	63.1
2	MAGIC PALACE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	72	78.2	68.0	58.5
1	MALICED	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	73	72.4	70.8	62.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 GOLD ASPEN (ML=7/2)
#12 JEDI'S WAY (ML=4/1)

GOLD ASPEN - Hasn't run at today's distance recently but does have a speed fig garnered last time he tried this trip good enough to win. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the form to make his presence felt. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. JEDI'S WAY - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a nice outing last time around the track within the last 30 days. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. The latest speed fig of 69 is the highest last race speed rating in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VEGAS BLACK JACK (ML=5/2), #4 THISISRIDICULOUS (ML=6/1),

VEGAS BLACK JACK - No favorable outcomes for this runner in a sprint race over the last couple months tells me that this gelding is in a tough circumstance really had to give me lots more last time out. Never made much of an impact. THISISRIDICULOUS - Would have to get better off that fifth place finish last time out to make an impact here. This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - GOLD ASPEN - Consider this. Finished eighth on the mud last time out. With better footing today, I'd expect a 35 percent improvement in capability.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 GOLD ASPEN is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:24 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. ALLOWED 0 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 HORSES IN FOR THE CLAIMING PRICE ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SUNDAY SPIRIT 5/2
# 8 SHOGUN BE FAST 9/2
# 1 PATRIARCHAL 5/1

SUNDAY SPIRIT looks very good to best this field. He looks respectable in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Is a key contender - given the 93 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. This equine has a terrific win percentage in dirt routes. SHOGUN BE FAST - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the competition. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. PATRIARCHAL - He ought to be given consideration given the respectable speed figures. Sharp returns over time for this jock and trainer combo.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23500 Class Rating: 100

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 23 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 23 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CHUCKANUT BAY 3/1
# 8 EXXEL 5/1
# 2 LOVE MY JIMMY 7/2

I give my vote to CHUCKANUT BAY here. Is hard not to consider based on speed figs which have been strong - 90 avg - of late. With Morales uptop him, this gelding should be able to break out early in this race. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 99 - of his last effort. EXXEL - Could best this group based on the speed figure - 88 - of his last outing. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 100, has one of the strongest class advantages in this field. LOVE MY JIMMY - The average Equibase class figure alone makes this entrant a contender. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the front end recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-23-2024, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#8 HOTPOT (ML=7/2)
#5 WILD MULE (ML=8/1)
#2 WE READY (ML=15/1)

HOTPOT - This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's race. You have to really like that most recent race speed fig, 70, which is the top last race fig of this field. WILD MULE - You probably want to overlook that last event at Parx Racing in the mud where he finished out of the top three. Should do well in this event without the slop. Rider hops up aloft after getting to know the fine animal by riding last out. That's always a good tip. This horse brings in a lot of cash per start. At the top in this affair. WE READY - Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Parx Racing last time out. That event had an Equibase class figure of 85 and he is moving down in this race. A certain solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ROB THE RICH (ML=3/1), #1 WOOD BE WILD (ML=5/1), #9 MIZZEN MAN (ML=6/1),

ROB THE RICH - This racer hasn't been on the track since Nov 19th. Not even any works. WOOD BE WILD - This gelding earned a speed rating in his last contest which probably isn't good enough today. MIZZEN MAN - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 HOTPOT to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None