Wednesday 1/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358302

    Wednesday 1/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

    College Football
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

    Baseball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

    College Basketball
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

    NBA
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

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    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey
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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358302

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 1/1/25


    January 1, 2025

    Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
    Santa Anita Park

    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
    Main Ticket: 2-Lita Way
    ; 7-Winter Snow.
    Backups: none,

    Forecast: Lita Way appeared to be going the best of the lot in the late stages when fifth but beaten less than two lengths in a similar turf miler at Del Mar in early November. Maybe she has further improvement in her in this state-bred affair for older fillies and mares, so we’ll give her a slight edge on top, but not with a great deal of enthusiasm. Winter Snow didn’t do a whole lot of running in her dirt sprint debut at Del Mar last summer but was claimed for $50,000 by a capable outfit and is protected upon her return in a sign of confidence. We’ll toss her.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 12:31 PT Grade: X
    Main Ticket: 4-Oveta’s Hobby.
    Backups
    : none.

    Forecast: After breaking her maiden (and getting eligible for this condition) by 12 easy lengths at Los Alamitos, Oveta’s Hobby returns protected in this starter’s $50,000 allowance sprint for newly turned sophomore fillies and is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite. She has an enormous edge in the speed figure department, so anything close to her runaway score at Los Alamitos last month will be more than sufficient, but at a price that will be too short to play.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: C+
    Main Ticket: 4-Ms. Brightside
    ; 7-Bottle Rocket.
    Backups: none.

    Forecast: This starter optional claiming grass miler for older fillies and mares has two main players. Ms. Brightside shows up in a seller for the first time and appears properly spotted. She just hasn’t been up to first level allowance competition, but this is a much easier gang, and her speed figures point her out. Bottle Rocket is another making that same class drop and after being freshened since October returns with F. Prat in a field she certainly fits with. We’ll give the former a slight preference – she’s a bit faster on numbers – but both should be included in your rolling exotics.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
    Main Ticket: 3-Love Our Family.

    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Love Our Family returns to reality in this $16,000 seller for fillies and mares and should be capable of regaining her winning form at this level. She picks up F. Prat, so there will be no excuses. The veteran mare does her best when on or near the lead, and the projected race flow of this race should allow her to be within range throughout. She’s run well over this main track in the past (never off the board in three starts with a win), and nothing else in here inspires, so let’s make her a logical single but at not much less than her 8/5 morning line.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
    Main Ticket: 4-Jeweled Shillelagh
    ; 8-Rastaman Vibe; Zalamo.
    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Here’s a spread race for starter’s allowance turf milers; we’ll use three and hope that’s sufficient. Jeweled Shillelagh shows consistent speed figures and won’t have to improve at all to handle this field. However, she’s always been a one-paced grinder without acceleration, so her best shot is the make the running or at least gain a stalk and pounce early position. Rastaman Vibe retains top rider J. Hernandez and has form at the level that makes her a solid fit. The main concern is that she’s winless in eight starts over the local lawn. Zalamo is another with speed figures that make her a major player and lands F. Prat. She’s not one to trust but is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 2:35PT Grade: X
    Main Ticket: 2-Jubilant Joanie.
    Backups
    : none.

    Forecast:Based on speed figures, Jubilant Joanie is a complete standout in this starter optional claiming main track sprint for fillies and mares. A winner of six of 13 career starts, the J. Mullins-trained mare normally is seen around two turns, but this shortened trip has proven to be well within her capabilities. She’s a logical rolling exotic single in a race that offers no real value.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
    Main Ticket: Proof She Zips
    ; 7-Lady Gregory.
    Backups: 2-Mirinda.

    Forecast: Proof She Zips projects to enjoy a soft trip outside and has shown in the past the ability to stalk and pounce. Solid in the speed figure department and with proven winning form over this grass surface, the daughter of Idiot Proof should fire another big shot. Lady Gregory is most likely the one she’ll have to worry about the most. A real pro from Northern California, the veteran mare is a perfect one-for-one on grass (she won at Santa Rosa) and may be a tad quicker than ‘Zips, though on pure speed numbers she’s a couple of points inferior. They’re tough to separate so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics and be mildly surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B-
    Main Ticket: 6-Letmein
    ; 5-Mr. Machupicchu; 2-Chasing Ryter.
    Backups: none.

    Forecast: Maiden state-bred sophomores sprint six furlongs in an unclassified affair with many question marks. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Letmein, runner-up in both of his starts to date, improved his Beyer speed figure by 13 points between his debut and his second start, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the son of Mr. Big step forward again. He should have enough gate speed to secure at least a second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Mr. Machupicchu already has had nine starts, so the evidence is mounting that he lacks a winning punch, but on pure numbers he’s a fit and as a first time Lasix user (as most of these are) he’s eligible to stick around longer than he has been. Chasing Ryer is a first timer for J. Mullins, who’s more than capable of winning with a debut runner. He’s bred to win early (Straight Fire), and while the works don’t jump off the page many of this outfit’s newcomers tend to run better than they work.


    __________________________________________________ ____________________________
    Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: C+
    Main Ticket: 4-My Summer Dream
    ; 5-Cane Creek Road; 9-Whatmakessammyrun.
    Backups: 6-Inch; 2-Hacking It Up.

    Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming sprinters. Use as many as you can afford to. My Summer DreamCane Creek Road is another course specialist (in the frame in seven of 12 starts with two wins) and projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position. He’s right there with these on his best day. Whatmakessammyrun is a prototype late running grass sprinter and won for $32,000 in late October, then took time off. He returns for $25,000, not a healthy pattern, but he’s a past classer and more than capable of handling this field if he’s feeling up to it. A. Fresu got to know him last time out and stays aboard.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358302

      #3
      Scott Shapiro: Turfway New Year's Day Spot Plays


      December 31, 2024 | By 1/ST BET

      Happy New Years! Here is to hoping 2025 is the best year yet!

      Turfway Park gets back it at on January 1 for the start of their Winter/Spring Meet. The program will have a special start time of 1 PM eastern, instead of the normal 5:55 PM, which will pick back up on Thursday evening. Here are a few horses I will key around on the Wednesday matinee slate.


      Race 2:

      There certainly should be an honest pace in this open $12,500 claimer to kick off the early Pick 4. I am hoping that sets things up for the Indiana-bred #8 Star Wisher. The Stormy Atlantic mare competed over turf in her first 13 starts, but tried the all-weather in Florence going one-mile just six days ago. The Turfway debut did not go well, but that in large part was because the 5YO mare was caught five-wide into the first turn and four-wide on the backstretch before somewhat understandably tiring badly in the end. The lack of form over this surface is an obvious concern, but I am willing to give the Anthony Granitz trainee another shot on the cutback. Granitz sports a solid 17%-win rate when wheeling horses back on ten days rest or less and goes to the bug boy Irving Moncada this time around. The Lucky J Stable homebred should be rolling late if she gets a cleaner trip and takes to the surface.

      Play: #8 Star Wisher (7-2 ML)


      Race 6: Gowell S.

      The first stake race of 2025 at Turfway Park features a group of seven newly turned 3YO fillies competing at six-furlongs led by morning line favorite #7 My Lil Punky. The Outwork filly ran well in her first start over the all-weather on December 13 when she made the lead, but had to work throughout before pulling away late to win by two lengths in the end. The $70k EAS May 2024 purchase draws favorably to the outside in this compact group, which should give jockey Adam Beschizza options after the break. With #5 Keyana and #6 Wisconsin Gal drawn immediately to her inside, my hypothesis is My Lil Punky stalks just off the pace in a more comfortable position than last out. Either way, she should handle this field making her a single in my late horizontal wagers.

      Play: #7 My Lil Punky (2-1 ML)


      Race 8:

      This allowance event for non-winners of three is one of the better wagering opportunities on the New Year’s Day card. I like #2 Driana. The daughter of Kantharos makes her first start since an off the board finish over the main track against similar at Horseshoe Indianapolis in mid-August, but the layoff is not a concern. Not only does her new trainer Susan Anderson sport a $2.07 ROI over her last 147 starters making their first try off a 90+ day break, but this mare put forth a much career best performance on Thorograph in her lone run over this surface last March. That win against first-level allowance foes last spring also came after significant time on the sidelines. If she can relax early under jockey Walter Rodriguez, she has a big shot to spring the upset!

      Play: #2 Driana (12-1 ML)


      Good luck and Happy New Year!

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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358302

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


        Fair Grounds - Race #7
        #7 Peso In My Pocket Think he's worth a little price look in here after a pretty flat comeback run, but he's capable of something better than that while probably sitting a touch closer in the early going today.
        #6 Line of Scrimmage Wouldn't be a surprise to see him handle these as he tries the local footing for the first time, and there are a couple of sharp lines on his page that would probably do the trick here. That said, they both came against cheaper, and his first try with similar didn't produce anything to write home about. Obvious contender, but I still have questions.
        #5 Comanche Warrior I like his combination of spying pace and grinding ability late, as that should leave him in a good spot to claim at least another share of things today. Some upside today in the second start off the bench.
        Race Summary Peso In My Pocket has some midrange price appeal in here after a modest run last time out, but there are a couple of decent local runs on his page that offer hope for improvement at a solid number.
        Fair Grounds - Race #8
        #5 C'est Magnifique His form has always run hot and cold, but he's probably a better fit with this kind of company right now, and there's nothing wrong with Geroux signing on in a spot like this. He can probably reverse form quickly here.
        #13 If I Were You He'll need some scratch help to get to post today, but I think he's capable of something better than he showed last time out, and a high draw should help keep the price playable if he goes.
        #1 Mosaico Man He's an obvious fit on form, but I don't feel great about the drop here. They stopped on him last winter when he rattled off a couple wins early on, and his allowance comeback in September was solid enough to think he'd stay in that kind of company, yet here he is for a tag while moving to turf for the first time. Could roll these, but I'm just going to watch.
        Race Summary C'est Magnifique has a couple decent company lines on his page, and he occasionally brings an effort that might be competitive while dropping out of allowance company for the first time.
        Fair Grounds - Race #9
        #4 Strummin Mary Her form isn't particularly reliable, but she showed a little bit of life when racing here off the bench last month, and that running lines represents some of the very rare finishing form on paper in here. Clunks along late to take it when the rest quit?
        #9 Drama Queenie She draws best of the speed and prompting types, and she should be in a good spot to attack the pace from the start. She proved a good fit with the locals last out and wouldn't surprise. On the tickets.
        #1 Copper Crush Dropper could be long gone from the fence. She wasn't embarrassed with better last out and would probably drill these with anything similar -- let's see if she can come anywhere close to replicating that on the drop.
        Race Summary Tough to know what to do with Copper Crush -- her form makes her the obvious one, but she's dropping to the bottom after giving away ground late for the first time in her career last out. On the other hand, Strummin Mary brings an encouraging effort with her and might be able to play with these if she's got a step forward in her in the second start back.
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358302

          #5
          Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


          Gulfstream Park - Race #1
          #7 STUBOLD (8-1) Gets Lasix and can get the winner’s share if she changes leads in the lane.
          #1 BELLA MENDY (5-2) Chased odds-on fave off layoff, held second, gets Irad to ride.
          #4 BALALA (7-2) Back with own kind, gets makeover in second start off Joseph claim.
          Race Summary STUBOLD angled 4-wide at the quarter pole, but couldn’t reach the 3-to-5 winner and finished a neck behind BELLA MENDY, the rail-sitter and possible favorite today. She gets Lasix and will be the value play from among the main contenders. Bet to win and place and play a 7/1,4,8/ALL trifecta.
          Gulfstream Park - Race #2
          #2 CRYPTO MAN (6-5) Serious money burner is hard to look past in this spot, one more chance.
          #3 HEATHCLIFF (12-1) Drew post 10 in three consecutive routes, then was bumped early in latest.
          #5 PERFORMANTE (2-1) Out-kicked by 8-1 shot but remained in good form for third start of cycle.
          Race Summary CRYPTO MAN, beaten five times in his last seven starts at 2-1 odds or less, will have no excuse while running for the cheapest claiming price of his career. He can make maximum use of his speed in this field and is an all-or-nothing short-priced favorite. Bet to win and play 2-3 and 2-5 exactas.
          Gulfstream Park - Race #4
          #1 FEDE (2-1) Loomed 3-wide, dropped back on turn, re-rallied, gets Lasix as lone 7F winner in field.
          #4 FONTANA DI TREVI (6-1) ‘Powered clear under mild urging’ in 6F maiden win with Gaffalione up.
          #3 BELLA CLEOPATRA (7-5) Couldn’t get by stubborn 8-1 stakes winner off four months away.
          Race Summary FEDE moved up within range of the 1-to-5 pace setter while in-hand nearing the far turn in a Florida-bred stakes race at 1-1/16 miles. She appeared to flatten out, then resurfaced with a mild 4-wide bid into the stretch. Lasix could be the answer for the lone maiden breaker at today’s 7F distance. Make her today’s Best Bet with a win and place wager.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358302

            #6
            F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
            PURCHASE
            Penn National - Race 3 W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $0.20 Hollywood Hi 5
            Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 75 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:58P
            (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
            Contenders Race Analysis
            P# Horse Morn
            Line
            Accept
            Odds
            Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ZAMBONI WARRIOR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ZAMBONI WARRIOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GRATED COCONUT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
            3 ZAMBONI WARRIOR 9/2 2/1
            2 GRATED COCONUT 5/2 5/1

            P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
            Line
            Running Style Good
            Class
            Good
            Speed
            Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
            Figure
            3 ZAMBONI WARRIOR 3 9/2 Front-runner 81 67 83.4 70.8 67.8
            2 GRATED COCONUT 2 5/2 Alternator/Front-runner 76 77 62.8 61.6 53.6
            6 BAG OF GOLD 6 8/1 Stalker 62 56 73.5 63.9 54.9
            8 SHELTRFROMTHESTORM 8 4/1 Alternator/Stalker 73 62 55.8 58.7 47.2
            1 LUCKY RUNNING CAT 1 3/1 Alternator/Trailer 80 69 56.6 63.5 57.0
            7 SPELLED WELL 7 12/1 Alternator/Non-contender 69 60 58.1 16.3 4.3
            5 GRUMPY BROOKSIE 5 8/1 Alternator/Non-contender 74 58 50.8 36.8 23.3
            4 HE'S FANCY FREE 4 20/1 Alternator/Non-contender 77 70 39.6 51.6 43.1
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358302

              #7
              F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
              PURCHASE
              Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 4 Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay(Races 4-5-6)
              Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 76 • Purse: $12,200 • Post: 1:38P
              FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
              Contenders Race Analysis
              P# Horse Morn
              Line
              Accept
              Odds
              Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PADDY GAL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PADDY GAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARY KATHERINE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
              2 PADDY GAL 5/1 3/1
              5 MARY KATHERINE 7/2 4/1

              P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
              Line
              Running Style Good
              Class
              Good
              Speed
              Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
              Figure
              2 PADDY GAL 2 5/1 Front-runner 69 67 74.6 63.4 57.9
              5 MARY KATHERINE 5 7/2 Alternator/Stalker 80 78 61.8 64.6 61.6
              7 SACRED CONNECTION 7 4/1 Trailer 72 59 53.4 59.4 53.4
              6 NELL'S BELLS 6 15/1 Trailer 72 57 34.0 50.2 41.7
              3 JACK'S YACHT QUEEN 3 3/1 Alternator/Non-contender 73 60 69.6 51.6 42.6
              4 TORREY STREET 4 5/2 Alternator/Non-contender 64 54 60.2 45.2 35.2
              1 MANGORITA 1 12/1 Alternator/Non-contender 58 55 54.0 47.4 34.4
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358302

                #8

                Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

                PURCHASE
                Always check program numbers.
                Odds shown are morning line odds.



                Race 8 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 80

                FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000
                RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                # 6 SAVE THE BEES 2/1
                # 4 IDEAL BREEZE 6/1
                # 5 MORETASTIC 5/1
                I think SAVE THE BEES is a respectable choice. She has to be given a chance given the competitive speed numbers. Keep this filly in your exotics as Marin has given backers some double digit gains. Should be given a shot in here if only for the respectable speed figure earned in the last contest. MORETASTIC - Solid average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender. Conditioner boasts sharp win figs at this distance and surface.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358302

                  #9

                  Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                  PURCHASE





                  Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:19pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 71

                  Rating:

                  #6 DAVOLA (ML=5/1)


                  DAVOLA - This pony should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could gate to wire the field. Servis adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a marked improvement. Trying to be a winner for the first-time moving from a race on the turf to the main track. I think Servis will have him in good shape for today's contest.

                  Vulnerable Contenders: #2 AYMAN (ML=5/2), #5 IRON SWORD (ML=7/2), #7 FRIOLENTO (ML=4/1),

                  AYMAN - Really had to show me more than that last time out. Never made much of an impact. IRON SWORD - I'm forecasting a less than stellar go of it out of him this time out. FRIOLENTO - The Brain always tells me to stay away from ponies in sprint affairs that haven't finished in the money in sprint events recently. Don't feel this mount will do much running today. That last rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating.

                  GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DAVOLA - When a horse takes such a big drop in the class rating department, I always have a look-see. I like what I see with this one and am wagering on him.


                  STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #6 DAVOLA to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
                  EXACTA WAGERS: 6 with [4,5]
                  TRIFECTA WAGERS: Skip
                  SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358302

                    #10

                    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

                    PURCHASE
                    Always check program numbers.
                    Odds shown are morning line odds.



                    Race 6 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 89

                    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2023. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000
                    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                    # 9 MORE VINO 20/1
                    # 1 ICE ROAD 9/2
                    # 5 STREET SWAGG 5/1
                    MORE VINO looks very strong to best this field and is a competitive value-based bet given the 20/1 line. Could provide positive returns based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 81. Davis has one of the best jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to bettors +11 percent. Risk takers should take a good look at this one as this colt has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. ICE ROAD - When Rodriguez uses Silvera there's a good chance for profits. Has been running soundly lately and should be on the lead early on. STREET SWAGG - Decent rider and conditioner combo winning 19 percent of their races working together.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358302

                      #11

                      Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                      PURCHASE





                      Turf Paradise - Race #9 - Post: 4:10pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 78

                      Rating:

                      #9 CONFIDENCE BUILDER (ML=6/1)
                      #7 DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV (ML=8/1)
                      #10 DRILL BABY DRILL (ML=5/1)


                      CONFIDENCE BUILDER - Her win on Sep 15th in a $5,000 Claiming race, at 6 1/2 furlongs, is a big plus for this mare. DANSMETOTHENDOFLOV - A big drop in Equibase class figure points from her Dec 11th race at Turf Paradise. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. Trainer, Ferguson, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. DRILL BABY DRILL - Have to give this mare a fair chance. Ran a sharp contest last time out within the last month. This horse looks like a potential overlay in this event at odds of 5/1. Finished fourth in last race at Turf Paradise but was close at the end. I like the piece of information that this mare's last rating, 77, is tops in this bunch. This animal has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. I like this horse. Finished in front of today's probable favorite last out at Turf Paradise, and I think she will do well versus this field today.

                      Vulnerable Contenders: #3 OCTANE (BRZ) (ML=3/1), #6 CARLA'S HONOR (ML=4/1), #1 HEY BARMAID (ML=6/1),

                      OCTANE (BRZ) - Difficult to wager on at 3/1 odds after the last two outings. CARLA'S HONOR - A bit of a less than stellar try when this mare finished third. HEY BARMAID - Disappointing speed rating last out at Turf Paradise at 4 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's event. I don't think this entrant likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one slot.
                      STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #9 CONFIDENCE BUILDER to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though
                      EXACTA WAGERS: 9 with [7,10]
                      TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6
                      SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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