Thursday 1/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #3

#5 La Boucane	He'll have a couple other potential forward players to deal with early, but he might be quick enough to establish the lead while stretching back out, and this isn't the kind of group where you'd expect to see a lot of stout finishing efforts. Could give them the slip.
#2 B Wayne	He's an obvious threat on class while getting into the basement for the first time, but I would have liked to see something at least a little bit better from him when getting in for a tag for the first time last out. Makes sense, but he's not for me at what is likely a short price.
#1 Wabash	Not quite sure how he's going to fit here, but the expectations obviously aren't that high as he drops in here for the second start after a mild effort when debuting in Alabama-bred stakes company. Makes enough sense in a bad race.
Race Summary	La Boucane has a little bit of pace and has turned in a few decent route tries in his career, so there is some hope he can graduate today after maybe showing a small hint of progress last out.

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#4 Viola	She's back fresh with what I'm hoping is the best early pace in here, as she flashed good pace and faded in a decent spot when last seen here almost a year ago. Not sure we get the 8/1 ML price for a top barn, but I could see her speed popping this group.
#5 Justique	Not sure what to do with her here, but you can count me out if the price is anything like that 7/5 ML offering. She's a turf router by trade, and she may be able to get home on class alone here, but I'm willing to let her beat me at this trip.
#2 Ervadean	Tactical speed didn't fire last out at Churchill, but she owns a couple decent local running lines and has company lines littered with stakes winners. Spying threat.
Race Summary	Viola draws well to force the issue with any other pace that wants to go, but I'm hoping she'll use her fresh speed to control this one from the start. Also hoping the stakes dropping turfer takes some cash.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#3 Dogwood Crossing	He's in with Louisiana-bred friends for the first time today, and that kind of even try at Horseshoe Indianapolis in October might play well enough with this group with a fair race flow likely on paper.
#11 Same Play	He's a threat while trying turf at second asking, and he caught a very tough, well-meant winner in that last one. Not sure there is anyone quite like that lined up today. Tough if he moves forward at all.
#2 Wayside Drive	He ran on with at least a little interest after winding up with an impossible amount to do in the debut at Evangeline this summer, and he could come forward at this short route trip with a better break today.
Race Summary	Dogwood Crossing stayed on well enough after a bit of trouble in that last one when getting on the turf for the first time, and he might be a really good fit with this Louisiana-bred group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#4 MAKIA (7-2)	Changed tactics, changed fortunes with runner-up finish behind the favorite.
#1 REINA MAR (10-1)	Three-race in-the-money streak ended, but short odds remained.
#8 LILY’S BACK (5-2)	Just missed on switch to turf in second start, switches back to main track.
Race Summary	In two starts for the barn that claimed her, MAKIA set the pace until the stretch before fading, then rallied into a slower pace to finish second. She was 4-wide on the final turn and drew even with the winning favorite before flattening out. Bet to win and place and play a 4/1,8/ALL trifecta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#5 HEIR TO THE ROAR (8-5)	Loves to win, good workout since last one, clean start would help.
#6 MYWIFEKNOWSITALL (2-1)	Got the jump on ‘Heir’ at 5-1/2F, earned her top speed fig in defeat.
#1 FOGGY NOTE (5-2)	Wide trips, more checks, improved numbers against Florida-breds, gets Irad.
Race Summary	HEIR TO THE ROAR rallied to win 5 of her last 7 starts at 5-1/2F, four in photo finishes and three at this distance. The 6-year-old’s slow-starting habit remains a concern, but she works her way through it time after time. Bet to win and place and play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#4 AREACODEFIVEOONE (3-1)	Must improve off debut to warrant short price, believe she’s up to it.
#6 VENEZUELAN PRIDE (5-1)	Closed with flourish past top one, flopped next out on all-weather track.
#5 LADY MEGHAN (5-2)	Even-paced in debut for high-percentage barn, adds Lasix.
Race Summary	AREACODEFIVEOONE was hard-ridden into the turn and 8-wide in the stretch while no serious threat as a debut favorite. She will be an underlay off the Joseph claim and with Irad aboard, but it looks like she needed that first race on a sloppy track. Belief is she will show more speed and factor throughout, so bet to win and place and play 4-5 and 4-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 6-7) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $4,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $10,700 • Post: 3:08P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CAN'T WANT THAT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAN'T WANT THAT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. DREWY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth st art after a layoff. DIAMOND DEE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PURRFECT MOON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. INFINITE LOVE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start afte r a layoff.
5	CAN'T WANT THAT	6/1	9/2
7	DREWY	10/1	7/1
3	DIAMOND DEE	7/5	9/1
6	PURRFECT MOON	4/1	9/1
2	INFINITE LOVE	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CAN'T WANT THAT	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	61	58.4	59.6	56.6
3	DIAMOND DEE	3	7/5	Stalker	67	66	67.2	58.8	51.3
7	DREWY	7	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	69	61.4	60.8	55.3
6	PURRFECT MOON	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	66	35.0	59.4	50.9
2	INFINITE LOVE	2	5/1	Trailer	72	62	42.6	64.2	58.2
4	SHELBY SHORTSTOP	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	52	50.0	39.6	26.6
1	HOT LIL MESS	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	58	40.5	39.2	27.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park
PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race 9	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Super Hi 5
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 9:55P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OUR PRAYER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DAME MAUDE CHARDIN: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. HALCYON DAYS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FROLICKING LADY: Jockey/Trainer co mbination return on investment is at least +20. KITTEN'S TEMPER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
12	OUR PRAYER	4/1	5/1
2	DAME MAUDE CHARDIN	9/2	6/1
7	HALCYON DAYS	5/1	7/1
13	FROLICKING LADY	15/1	8/1
11	KITTEN'S TEMPER	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
13	FROLICKING LADY	13	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	74.9	61.6	42.6
2	DAME MAUDE CHARDIN	2	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	66	62	75.8	54.1	42.1
14	WAKE UP LAUREN	14	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	60.4	55.2	48.7
10	SAFECRACKER SUE	10	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	65	47.1	43.2	30.2
7	HALCYON DAYS	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	56	45.8	54.2	45.2
12	OUR PRAYER	12	4/1	Trailer	76	69	52.6	58.5	51.0
11	KITTEN'S TEMPER	11	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	73	57	49.0	51.8	41.8
8	TIZ SALTY	8	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	47.7	57.0	44.0
6	REAL QUEEN	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	47.6	54.0	40.5
4	TURBO GAL	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	42	42.4	42.4	24.4
3	WHAT YOU WISHED	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	51	25.5	34.6	19.1
5	LA CUERVA	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	3.8	3.8	0.0
1	CACHACEIRA	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: STARSHIP REALITY (12/1) [Jockey: Beschizza Adam - Trainer: Danner Kelsey].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#7 BIG TIPPA (ML=4/1)
#8 STAY FAITHFUL (ML=7/5)
#2 SWEET DAYDREAM (ML=10/1)


BIG TIPPA - The rider and conditioner combination have a positive ROI when they partner up. As long as Mawing keeps this pony off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a winner. This pony coming off a strong performance in the last thirty days is a solid contender in my book. STAY FAITHFUL - This filly's last speed rating notched on Nov 27th is tops in last race speed ratings. This filly is certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 49, 60, 63 last 3 out. SWEET DAYDREAM - This mare is rounding her way back into shape. Should race well today. Starting from the inside, this animal should have a distinct advantage. Her front running style should serve her well in this short race of 6 1/2 furlongs. Last raced at Charles Town carrying 9 lbs more. The lower impost right here should serve her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MAKAAN (ML=7/2), #6 TAPWRIT WARRIOR (ML=6/1),

MAKAAN - In any race of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been sharp in sprint affairs recently. Have to put a question mark next to the last speed fig since it was earned on a muddy track. TAPWRIT WARRIOR - Mediocre speed figure last out at Charles Town at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BIG TIPPA - That bullet move has this horse ready, willing and able. Morning form should transfer well when the real racing begins. Getting my dough.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 BIG TIPPA is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $78000 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $45,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE JULY 2, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ELLIPTIC 9/5
# 5 RACING COLORS 12/1
# 7 BERNT AGAIN 9/2

ELLIPTIC should be supported as the wager in here. Have to assume this animal will run well again this time around. Formidable average Speed Figures in dirt route races make this animal a solid choice. Tough to pass on this mare with Carmouche in the saddle. RACING COLORS - Solid venture today with second time Lasix. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 81 - of her last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 8:11pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#9 ROSE OF SHARON (ML=5/2)


ROSE OF SHARON - Rodriguez is back for another affair today after riding on board this horse for the first time on December 11th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. My expertise says this is the only presser in the race. Entered a $16,000 Maiden Claiming race at Penn National last time around the track and raced on a sloppy track finishing fourth. Expect better right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 AVRIL (ML=4/1), #7 FIFTY NINE FIFTY (ML=5/1), #6 MS. LAOBANNIANG (ML=6/1),

AVRIL - Common fig last out at Penn National at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race. FIFTY NINE FIFTY - This filly garnered a fig in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. MS. LAOBANNIANG - I'm foreseeing a less than stellar go out of her in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ROSE OF SHARON - Playing the top earnings per start horse is an angle which won't steer you wrong in the long run. I'm betting on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 ROSE OF SHARON to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - SO - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS SINCE JANUARY 2, 2024, OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING SINCE OCTOBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HEIR TO THE ROAR 8/5
# 1 FOGGY NOTE 5/2
# 6 MYWIFEKNOWSITALL 2/1

HEIR TO THE ROAR figures to be the bet in here. Posted a solid speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. She has posted decent figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this group of horses in this race. No strangers to the winner's circle, Barboza and Jaramillo will probably have this mare breaking away from the field. FOGGY NOTE - Her 77 average has this mare with among the top speed figures in this event. Tough to pass on this mare with Ortiz in the saddle. MYWIFEKNOWSITALL - Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 88 - of her last race.