Monday 1/6/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc Today, 11:02 AM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:37 AM

Al Cimaglia: Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

January 6, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Woodbine Mohawk Park has an 11-race card with the 0.20 Pick 5 starting in Race 1. The sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 rolls in Race 3, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3 (7:26 PM EST)

1-Bella Cavalla (3-1)-Was claimed by trainer Corey Giles in early December and won at first asking. Then was claimed on 12-30 by the same barn and the Fellows stable once again was the seller. Beaten chalk should get a better trip tonight and JMac sticks. Could immediately reward new connections once again.
8-Crystal Baller (4-1)-Lost all chance after breaking stride on 12-30. Before that was a close 2nd to this kind. Might be overlooked, has the gate speed to get a good early seat and be heard from at the wire.

Race 4 (7:49 PM EST)

3-Perfetto (3-1)-Came a good 2nd at 17-1 and was off 2 weeks before the last race. Comes back in sequence here, and should be there at the wire again.
7-Truffles Too (5-1)-Has been in good form in the last 2 races since shipping in from Pocono. Broke stride in 3 straight at PcD. But hasn’t made a miscue at Mohawk and won its last start, which was at this level. Drew off by almost 4 lengths and will look for another picture versus tougher.

Race 5 (8:12 PM EST)

2-Day Trader (3-1)-Was only 1 for 17 last year but in general this field struggles to win. Did hit the board in 10 of 26 at Mohawk and took 4 pictures. Gets post relief, plus a positive driver change in JMac and may have met a beatable field.
4-Lets Go Jude-(7/2)-Doug McNair is back and will steer his father’s entry who comes off a 10-hole effort at this level. Got on the engine but faded down the lane. Will look for a bounce back performance and for this pilot to work a better journey.

Race 6 (8:35 PM EST)

3-Eyes Of Justice (6-1)-Not going to hold the last start against the 7-year-old who had been in the mix over a string of starts. Trevor Henry should have this veteran in play off the gate. Will look for honest fractions and could finish best of all at a solid price.
4-Ciel Bleu (8-1)-Comes off a no-mile starting from the 9-hole in the 1st race after shipping in from RidC. Was in sharp form in the previous 7 starts and will expect better in the 2nd race at Mohawk. Looking for an aggressive steer from Guy Gagnon and should be a big number.

$1 Early Pick 4

1,8/3,7/2,4/3,4
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#9 C S Express	He still has some work to do if he's going to land this, but I'm guessing the price will still be right as he comes into this with at least a couple of mildly encouraging efforts on his page in recent starts. Something like the last one with a touch more late punch could do the trick.
#8 Gold Aspen	Never a huge fan of these types who are always giving away ground late in their races, but he has been in with some better groups in Maryland and may stack up OK here, but I'm also not thrilled about the way his form has been heading in those two starts on the drop since the claim. He can win this, but you can have him.
#7 Midnitestateofmind	He was open lengths ahead of the top choice when they met last time out, but he was 6/5 that day and made a lot of sense on paper with that group. Mild concern that he keeps getting in the frame without sealing the deal, but it's his race to lose.
Race Summary	C S Express goes for a barn that dropped a $101 winner in a spot like this a few weeks ago while entering with similarly uninspiring form, and 'Express catches a couple of likely chalks with some questions to answer.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#3 Secret Trouble	He didn't do much in that first stretchout try at Churchill last out, but he might find a really dreamy spot in behind a few of the more committed forward players. Think he's overlooked on the board today.
#4 Masakado	Think his baseline keeps him in the mix with this group, and he's got the right kind of positional pace to be in a spot to get first jump into the far turn. Obvious threat.
#1 Gut Instinct	The one drawn just outside of him could be quick enough to give him some trouble, but otherwise he has what looks like potentially dangerous pace in here. Could be gone if he can slip away from the other pace.
Race Summary	Secret Trouble should be able to settle in just behind the pace players in here, and he could stick around better here with that mile run under his belt.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#7 Miss Six	She has been a pace-and-fade type through four starts, but she might be quick enough to control the pace in here, and she could get a bit braver if she can avoid taking challenges too early. Maybe.
#6 Mystical Mobil	She's not meeting a particularly deep group, and something like that last one would probably make her tough here -- but the price is going to reflect that.
#4 Princess Em	She's getting short on excuses at this point, and she has rarely been a serious threat while landing any of those recent underneath shares. Her typical stuff keeps her in the mix, but it's easier for me to see her plugging along too late for a share than it is to see her finding a hard charge to get past them late.
Race Summary	Miss Six might have already packed things in by the time they turn for home, but I'm hoping she'll find just a bit more in the tank if nobody hassles her in the early going.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Trial • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 71 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 12:10
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR QUARTER HORSE THREE YEAR OLD WHICH REMAINS ELIGIBLE FOR THE TURF PARADISE QUARTER HORSE MAIDEN STAKE TRIALS. $700 TO ENTER. (INCLUDES $200 HAIR TEST FEE) WEIGHT: 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GRAND DIAMOND D: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CUZ CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KVN NEGRO TO BLANCO: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	GRAND DIAMOND D	3/1	3/1
5	CUZ CARTEL	5/1	6/1
4	KVN NEGRO TO BLANCO	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	STINGG REY	1	8/1	Average	0	0	5.6	0.0	0.0
2	RIME FAST MAJOR	2	4/1	Slow	0	0	7.9	0.0	0.0
3	GRAND DIAMOND D	3	3/1	Average	80	75	5.8	0.0	0.0
4	KVN NEGRO TO BLANCO	4	5/2	Average	71	59	4.6	0.0	0.0
5	CUZ CARTEL	5	5/1	Average	71	66	5.5	0.0	0.0
6	KOLI	6	6/1	Slow	71	55	7.5	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: QUICK DISCIPLE DASH (10/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jose - Trainer: Torres-Casas Alex J].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 6-7-8)
Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $26,400 • Post: 2:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GUT INSTINCT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANDY CANT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MASAKADO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Hors e ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DARK BARON: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quart er Horse race).
1	GUT INSTINCT	5/2	5/1
6	ANDY CANT	3/1	5/1
4	MASAKADO	2/1	6/1
2	DARK BARON	15/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	DARK BARON	2	15/1	Front-runner	87	79	80.0	59.2	47.7
1	GUT INSTINCT	1	5/2	Front-runner	86	85	69.2	83.6	78.6
6	ANDY CANT	6	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	78	62.6	76.8	73.3
4	MASAKADO	4	2/1	Stalker	87	80	69.6	79.4	74.4
5	ROCKY'S EXPRESS	5	10/1	Stalker	79	73	65.9	62.5	50.5
7	VERBIER	7	12/1	Trailer	83	71	70.6	72.6	63.1
3	SECRET TROUBLE	3	5/1	Trailer	63	71	50.2	65.4	56.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:03pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,700 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#10 BE KOZY (ML=8/1)
#5 IT'S E Z (ML=3/1)

BE KOZY - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Smith. Entered last at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in a race with an Equibase class figure of 64. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure this time out puts her in a solid position right here in this race. IT'S E Z - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +43. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a strong race on December 18th. This filly is most certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 14, 33, 53 last three out. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should perform well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KOZY NIGHT (ML=5/2), #1 MOBIL ENSIGN (ML=4/1), #7 MIDNIGHT GODDESS (ML=6/1),

KOZY NIGHT - Hard to play this filly today since the affair isn't limited to three year olds. MOBIL ENSIGN - Have to put a question mark next to the latest speed fig since it was obtained in the slop. MIDNIGHT GODDESS - Tough to bet on any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the shot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #10 BE KOZY on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE JANUARY 1 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ANESTESIOLOGA 2/1
# 4 D' DREAM GIRL 3/1
# 1 KRAZYKATKOUSIN 5/1

I think ANESTESIOLOGA is a very good choice. Prominent in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field of horses. D' DREAM GIRL - Looks very good to be on or close to the front end at the first call. This pony has to be in form coming back to the track so soon. KRAZYKATKOUSIN - Investors should take a good look at this one as this mare has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Will almost certainly compete very well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 2:47pm - Starter Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#13 MAJESTIC TIGER (ML=5/1)
#10 RED DEVOLUTION (ML=8/1)

MAJESTIC TIGER - Trainer Richards moves this thoroughbred to a lower class level to face a weaker class today. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. RED DEVOLUTION - Don't often see a profitable return on investment like +81. This jock/trainer tandem has done well together over the last year.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 AHSAD (ML=3/1), #8 MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE (ML=7/2), #4 SPOTTED BULL (ML=9/2),

AHSAD - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last few weeks. MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE - This questionable contender has no victories in his last ten attempts. He's probably not worth the price on the win end today. SPOTTED BULL - This pony will have a tough time winning this 6 1/2 furlongs dirt race. He just doesn't win races very often.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #13 MAJESTIC TIGER to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [10,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	13 with 10 with [1,4,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	13 with 10 with [1,3,4,8,12] with [1,3,4,8,12] Total Cost: $20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-06-2025, 06:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 88

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON ON THE TURF. OR CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 SEA OF LIBERTY 6/1
# 9 ABRAAJ MIRAGE 5/2
# 10 ZUMURUDEE 5/1

SEA OF LIBERTY could be the bet in here. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (95 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Could best this group here, showing competitive figures of late. Gamblers should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses. ABRAAJ MIRAGE - Has been close on the wire most every time lately. Garnered a formidable speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. ZUMURUDEE - Seems to have a decent class edge based on the most recent company kept. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this field in his last contest.

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
6	6	QUEEN CABAL	15/1	Callahan, Corey - 18	423.16
5	5	FLETAH	9/2	Vincent, Kim - 2	389.74
1	1	PLATINUM BLUE	8/1	Davis, Allan - 13	386.71
3	3	LIRA HANOVER	6/1	Foster, Russell - 6	386.59
4	4	NICOLE SECRET	10/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 16	386.51
9	9	KENTUCKY COLONEL	7/2	Teague, Montrell - 14	362.81
2	2	ROYAL ROBIN	5/2	Morgan, Anthony - 17	357.30
8	8	TRINITY'S ADVOCATE	12/1	Long, Wayne - 3	353.36
7	7	PERFECT TWENTY	12/1	Green, Jason - 6	352.12

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 5:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$10500 - HORSES & GELDINGS N/W $2001 LAST 4 STARTS NO. 10 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER J. SMTIH - LISTED 3/8 C. PAGE - LISTED 6/7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 ROCKIN DADDY O 5/2
# 4 MR NUTTIN NICE 7/2
# 1 THE BEST TYME EVER 3/1

ROCKIN DADDY O sure does look ready to win. Good for a win wager just off the exemplary prior class statistics. Have to like this standardbred. MR NUTTIN NICE - Considered a solid wager based solely on his high ultimate prize percentage. Hands down the best hole at Miami Valley is the 4. The win stat is exemplary. THE BEST TYME EVER - Could best this field of starters, just look at the speed rating - 79 - from his last affair.

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 12:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$3800 - NW $450 PS L5-6 OR PS IN 2024 AE: NW 6 PM LT $7200 PC LS AE:$7000 CLM W/A K DIBENEDETTO 3 OVER 6 D RAWLINGS 8 OVER 7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 LMC MASS GEM 5/2
# 4 JUDGE KEN 3/1
# 3 SWAN HILLUVA TIME 9/2

LMC MASS GEM will not be denied the victory in this contest. Could provide us a ultimate prize based on very nice recent speed ratings - earning an avg of 77. Has a very strong shot in this contest, if he can repeat his back class. The consortium noted a bang-up effort out of this harness racer last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to dominate. JUDGE KEN - This interesting entrant and Merton have a very good relationship. In the money percent for this match is high. SWAN HILLUVA TIME - Good for a win bet just off the great prior class numbers. Have to like this nice horse.

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
5	5	BUCK DANCER	6/1	Borth, Tyler J - 11	560.07
1	1	PESO HANOVER	5/1	Henry, Trevor S - 11	486.57
7	7	SO NOT COOL	7/2	Mcclure, Bob - 13	469.81
2	2	MACALLAN	3/1	Young, Scott R - 6	469.32
6	6	THE LIONKING AS	10/1	Cullen, Travis A - 10	463.15
4	4	BARZY	15/1	Coulter, Scott - 13	443.16
3	3	BUCKHEAD RIDGE	9/2	Mcnair, Douglas R - 17	442.16
8	8	HANDSOME HANK	8/1	Harris, J Bradley - 13	435.55
10	10	DONATOVER	15/1	Macdonald, James A - 22	432.58
9	9	MISTER MAGIC	10/1	Drury, Jonathan L - 7	409.57

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:36 AM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: McNeese St -10 over Northwestern St

**ConleyPicks** · 01-06-2025, 07:36 AM

Free play from Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection: Orlando Magic/New York Knicks under 209