11-8-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Season
Straight Up: 777-274 (.739)
ATS: 281-297 (.486)
ATS Vary Units: 1565-1697 (.480)
Over/Under: 278-292 (.488)
Over/Under Vary Units: 686-729 (.485)

Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Mid-American Conference
Northern Illinois 44, BOWLING GREEN STATE 27
TOLEDO 45, Western Michigan 36

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Western Michigan at Toledo

The Rockets look to bounce back from their 63-60 loss to Northern Illinois and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Toledo is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-11 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 101-102: Western Michigan at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 77.847; Toledo 95.779 Dunkel Line: Toledo by 18; 71 Vegas Line: Toledo by 11 1/2; 68 Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-11 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 88.073; Bowling Green 87.000 Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 1; 60 Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 6; 65 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+6); Under

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Tuesday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Northern Illinois -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

31-14 run

bowling green +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

(CFB) W. Michigan +11-
(CFB) Bowling Green +5-

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Battle Of Division Leaders As Capitals Host Stars
By Dan Rosen


Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals (-165, 5.5)
STARS (10-3-0) at CAPITALS (9-3-0)

TV: FS-SW, CSN-MA

LAST 10: Dallas 8-2-0; Washington 7-3-0

SEASON SERIES: This is the only meeting between the clubs this season.

BIG STORY: Washington was supposed to be sitting at or near the top of the NHL all season, but Dallas enters Tuesday's game as the surprise leader in the Western Conference. The Stars have 20 points, one more than the Blackhawks.

TEAM SCOPE:

STARS: Dallas has won three straight and four out of its last five. The Stars are finding ways to win even when they give up six goals, as they did this past Friday against Colorado. Fortunately, Loui Eriksson scored twice, including the winner 3:55 into overtime, to give Dallas a 7-6 victory. The Stars then went out and beat Carolina handily, 5-2, on Sunday.

The Stars got off to a strong start because they relied heavily on the impressive play of goalie Kari Lehtonen, but it appears now their offense is coming around. They have scored 15 goals during their current three-game winning streak and have 20 goals in their last five games after scoring just 18 over their first eight.

The line of Eriksson, Jamie Benn and Michael Ryder combined for 3 goals and 5 assists in Sunday's win. Eriksson has 8 points over the last four games after scoring just 7 in the first nine games. Benn and Ryder each have 5 points in the last two games.

"We got two real cerebral players, they just kind of feed off each other and they think the game so well," coach Glen Gulutzan said of Eriksson and Benn. "You've got two smart guys playing together and they're having a good streak right now."

CAPITALS: Washington got back to work Monday after losing to the Islanders, 5-3, on Saturday. The Capitals jumped out to an early lead, but admittedly lost focus on their game plan of forechecking hard and playing strong defense. They blew a 2-0 lead by giving up two goals in the second and three in the third, including an empty-netter to John Tavares.

"In the second period, we wanted to get that third one," Brooks Laich told reporters following the game. "We thought if we did that, we could really control the game. But we got away from our game plan a little bit. They pushed back, started to outwork us, and that's where it started to turn."

The good news is that Alex Ovechkin had a strong game against the Islanders and scored his sixth goal of the season. He said after the game that he's been feeling good the last couple of games and his shot is coming back as well.

WHO'S HOT: In addition to Eriksson, Benn and Ryder, Sheldon Souray has 6 points in the last three games and Stephane Robidas has 4 points in the last two. … Washington has its own sizzling star in Nicklas Backstrom, who was named the NHL's Third Star of the Week on Monday for his 3 goals and 3 assists in the Caps' three games last week. Backstrom leads the team with 18 points, including 13 assists.

INJURY REPORT: Washington defenseman Mike Green (ankle) practiced with the team on Monday, but coach Bruce Boudreau said they will not rush him back. Jay Beagle (concussion) remains out of the Caps lineup. … Stars forward Steve Ott has missed two straight games with a lower-body injury.

STAT PACK: Dallas is 2-0 against Eastern teams this season after going 11-5-4 against the conference last season. Washington's defensemen are averaging a combined 2.75 points-per-game this season (33 points in 12 games). The blueliners combined to average 1.48 points-per-game last season (121 points in 82 games).

PUCK DROP: "I don't want to be a liability on the ice," Green told the Washington Post. "And I've only had one really good skate here, so for me to just jump back in wouldn't necessarily be a good thing. If I think I am (a liability) then I don't think I should play. If I don't, then I'll play."

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Tuesday's Best NHL Bets

Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals (-165, 5.5)

Forgive us for not falling head-over-heels in love with the Capitals just yet.

So far this season they’ve been hard to read. Some nights you see a solid commitment to defense and an offense that jumps all over its chances while lighting it up on the power play. Then there are the games like Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the New York Islanders, who had lost six straight heading into the contest.

Washington jumped out to a 2-0 lead before the first intermission, but then let the Islanders tie the game in the second before completing the comeback in the third.

“We had them,” coach Bruce Boudreau told reporters. “I think if we had of come out in the second period as we had come out in the first, and I think we knew that if we could have got that next goal it probably would have been over, but we didn’t, and once we let them get back in the game. You let a team in, especially a team that’s been losing, and they feel it and you’re in trouble.”

Sounds like the same old story to us. With the way Jamie Benn (points in five straight) and the Stars are going right now, they’ll give the Caps everything they can handle. Dallas has won four of its last five and just dropped Carolina 5-2 on the road.

PICK: Dallas


Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames (-140, 5)

Outside of Minnesota, there hasn’t been a lot of buzz over the Wild. Not yet, anyway.

Minnesota is hot on Edmonton’s heels for top spot in the Northwest division and has won four straight heading into Tuesday’s game. And it’s not just a four-game winning streak, it’s two wins over Detroit, a 5-1 pasting of the Canucks and a hard-fought 2-1 win over the Blues.

"Guys are buying in, believing that,” rookie defenseman Justin Falk told reporters. “We're battling out there, competing for each other to push each other to be better. You can see we're playing great-looking hockey, that's for sure."

No kidding. The Wild have allowed just three goals over the winning streak and goaltender Josh Harding was just named the league’s first start of last week after he won three games with a .968 save percentage.

With Minnesota winning 10 of its last 13 against Calgary, we see a live dog here.

PICK: Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA CFB NEWS AND NOTES
What Bettors Need To Know: Tuesday's MAC Action
By David Payne Purdum


Western Michigan at Toledo (-11), 8 p.m., ESPNU

Toledo faces a major letdown situation when Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl for Senior Night.

The Rockets (5-4, 5-4 ATS) lost a back-and-forth 63-60 home game to Northern Illinois last Tuesday, an emotional defeat that delivered a major blow to their MAC title hopes.

The Broncos (5-4, 5-4 ATS) arrive off of a bye week and haven’t played since Oct. 29.

Toledo won at Western Michigan, 37-24, last September, despite being outgained 416-268.

THE LINE

Toledo opened as a 10-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. By Monday, the Rockets were giving 11 with even a few 11.5s available offshore.

The underdog has covered the spread in the last five meetings, with the road team covering four straight.

QUARTERBACKS

Sophomore Terrance Owens and junior Austin Dantin have split snaps throughout the year, but Dantin played the vast majority of the game against Northern Illinois. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns. Dantin had 173 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last year against Western Michigan.

Senior Alex Carder has put up huge numbers for the Broncos, throwing for 2,274 yards already, with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He threw for 403 yards and four interceptions against Toledo last year.

WEATHER

Temperatures are expected to drop into the low 40s, with light winds and only a slim chance of precipitation.

INJURY REPORT

Toledo starting safety Charles Rancifer was suspended for the Northern Illinois game. Coach Tim Beckman had not said publicly if Rancifer would be back against Western Michigan.

Western Michigan is not reporting any significant injuries.

TRENDS

Over is 20-6-1 in Toledo’s last 27 games as a home favorite and 19-7 overall as a favorite.

WMU is 10-21-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Toledo is 40-23 ATS at the Glass Bowl since 2000.


Northern Illinois (-6) at Bowling Green, 8 p.m.

The Huskies cannot afford to come out flat against an up-and-down Bowling Green team that is expecting to get its leading rusher back and had an extra week to stew over an ugly 27-15 loss at Kent State on Oct. 29.

The Falcons will need to improve their shoddy run defense (91st, allowing 190.78 yards per game) if they want to hang with the Huskies, who are averaging 246.78 rushing yards, ninth most in the nation.

On the bright side, Northern Illinois’ rushing defense is worse, surrendering 202 yards per game.

Northern Illinois hasn’t won in Bowling Green since 1986. The two teams have not met since 2008, a 16-13 Northern Illinois home win.

THE LINE

Northern Illinois opened as a 7-point favorite Sunday at the Las Vegas Wynn. But the line had dropped to -5.5 at a lot of books by Monday afternoon.

The Falcons are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 home games and just 2-5 ATS as a home dog under coach Dave Clawson.

QUARTERBACKS

Northern Illinois boast the best QB in the conference in senior Chandler Harnish (1,962 passing yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs). Harnish also leads the Huskies in rushing.

Sophomore Matt Schilz threw for 400 yards against Kent State. He has 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but has been sacked 20 times.

INJURY REPORT

Bowling Green is expected to get leading rusher Anthon Samuel back. The freshman, who has five 100-yard rushing games, missed the loss to Kent State with a concussion.

Cornerback Jeffrey Garrett, a starter before suffering a hamstring injury in early October, could return, but is considered a game-time decision.

WEATHER

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with a 13 mph South wind and the possibility of late thunder storms moving in during the second half.

TRENDS

Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games in November.

Under is 8-3 in Falcons’ last 11 games as underdogs.

Over is 10-4 in Northern Illinois’ last 14 games overall.

Huskies are on a 10-3-1 ATS run in MAC play.

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday's Best NCAA CFB Bet

Western Michigan at Toledo (-11)

Toledo opened up as a -12.5 favorite and early Western Michigan money has brought that line down to -11 and -11.5 in spots. Toledo has looked, at times, like the class of the MAC but they have shown themselves to be vulnerable over the course of the last few games, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. Giving up 63 to Northern Illinois in s 63-60 loss, 28 to a Miami Ohio team not known for offense, 21 to Bowling Green in a narrow win.

We'll keep this short and to the point. Western Michigan can score some points. You simply have to give them a strong look in a spot like this against a team that give up points the way Toledo does. As we like to say, the back door is always open in a game like this. Our score prediction model has Toledo winning a 42-28 game, which would call for a cover as well, but we're going to go the other way here and take the points. We agree with the early line move which looks to be the result of sharp action.

PICK: Western Michigan +11.5


Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (+6)

Northern Illinois is a 6 point road favorite, down from an opening line of -8 as the early money here favors Bowling Green at home despite close to 70% of the early action being on the Northern Illinois side.

We can understand the early move but we'd also urge caution here. Bowling Green has dropped 4 of their last 5 games and their point production is way down. They have scored 10, 21, 21, 13 and 15 points their last 5 games. To their credit, they beat Temple. But they lost to Kent State and couldn't keep up with Western Michigan and West Virginia.

Northern Illinois on the other hand, has won 4 straight and 5 of the last 6 and although a couple of those were narrow wins where they also gave up buckets of points, they also beat a couple of common opponents here by wide margins, Kent State and Western Michigan, both of whom beat Bowling Green.

Logic would tell us that Northern Illinois is the better team, not to mention in current better form. Our model actually predicts a 38-38 shootout tie, but we are going to go against the model once again here. The line move down from 8 to 6 places the value on the Northern Illinois side at this point so we'll go ahead and lay the number here.

PICK: Northern Illinois -6

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday’s Betting Tips: NHL Visitors Cashing On Pucklines

WHO'S HOT

NCAAF: Toledo is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight as a favorite.

NCAAF: Northern Illinois is 10-3-1 against the spread in its last 14 conference games.

NHL: Colorado is 6-2 in its last eight road games.

NHL: Carolina has dropped each of its last four games against New Jersey.

WHO'S NOT

NCAAF: The under is 1-4 in Western Michigan’s last five overall.

NCAAF: Bowling Green is 1-5 against the spread in its last six against a team with a winning record.

NHL: Chicago has won five of its last seven against St. Louis.

NHL: The under is 18-7-6 in Los Angeles’ last 31 games overall.

KEY STAT

69.7 – NHL visiting teams have cashed in on the puckline 69.7 percent of time over the last week. On the year, visiting teams are converting 56.8 percent of puckline plays.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Tim Connolly, Toronto Maple Leafs - Connolly will be out for up to two weeks after the veteran center suffered an upper-body injury in Saturday's one-sided loss to the Boston Bruins. Connolly missed practice on Monday, and afterward head coach Ron Wilson confirmed the injury and recovery timetable. Apparently, the injury is unrelated to the shoulder ailment that kept him out of the first eight games of the regular season. Connolly, signed to a two-year deal by Toronto in the offseason, has a goal and three assists in six games so far this season. Tyler Bozak is expected to take his spot on the first line along with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul. Toronto is a -135 favorite against Florida.

GAME OF THE DAY

Western Michigan at Toledo (-11.5, 68)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

"We have a few packages put in that we think is going to work against their offense. We're basically going to stick to our physical, no missed assignment, making plays defense. We're going to play with a high level of intensity and build for success." – Western Michigan senior cornerback Aaron Winchester on Tuesday’s matchup with Toledo.

TIPS AND NOTES

Ken Hitchcock will make his head coaching debut with the St. Louis Blues (-110) Tuesday at home to the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blues fired coach Davis Payne on Sunday night and replaced him with Hitchcock. St. Louis was 6-7 this season and had won four of its last six games. Hitchcock, who has previously coached with the Dallas Stars, Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets, signed a through the 2012-13 season. The 59-year-old Hitchcock led Dallas to a Stanley Cup title in 1999 and has won six division crowns. He has a career record of 534-350-88-70.

Bowling Green (+5.5) has won just one of its last five games, covering only twice during that span, as it heads into Tuesday's matchup with Northern Illinois. There seems to be plenty of blame to go around. After last weekend’s loss to Kent State, coach Dave Clawson said it was his fault that the team’s offense, defense and special teams weren’t ready for the game. However, one of the team’s main problems is turnovers. Bowling Green has coughed up 22 turnovers (worst in the MAC) and the squad’s minus-10 turnover ratio ranks 116th in the nation.

Texas A&M running back Christine Michael will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL in Saturday's 41-25 loss to No. 7 Oklahoma. It marks the second consecutive year Michael’s season has been cut short by injury. He broke his leg last October and required surgery. Michael has rushed for 899 yards and eight touchdowns this season - both team highs. The Aggies take a two-game losing streak into this weekend's road tilt against No. 17 Kansas State.

The Buffalo Bills are expected to hold tryouts this week for a kicker to replace the injured Ryan Lindell. Coach Chan Gailey said Lindell's injured right shoulder is "not good." Lindell has been ruled out of this week’s game against Dallas but Gailey did not say if it was a season-ending injury. The team also announced that defensive tackle Kyle Williams will miss the rest of the season with a left foot injury. Lindell was hurt while attempting to tackle Joe McKnight during the second-half kickoff of a 27-11 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday. Lindell, in his eighth season with the Bills, is 13 of 15 on field-goal attempts this season.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

Carolina at New Jersey

The Devils look to build on their 12-3 record in their last 15 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. New Jersey is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-140). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8 Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Winnipeg at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.940; Buffalo 12.223 Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-200); Over

Game 53-54: Florida at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.821; Toronto 10.702 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Under

Game 55-56: Dallas at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.094; Washington 11.563 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+145); Over

Game 57-58: Carolina at New Jersey (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.333; New Jersey 11.440 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-140); Under

Game 59-60: Edmonton at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.067; Montreal 12.214 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130); Under

Game 61-62: Colorado at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.876; Detroit 11.063 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+150); Over

Game 63-64: Chicago at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.915; St. Louis 11.632 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under

Game 65-66: Minnesota at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.017; Calgary 11.232 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

Game 67-68: Nashville at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.504; Los Angeles 11.934 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-120); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

750- 548 57 % Free Play Run over 3 YEARS

Free play Tues: NJ Devils

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

New Jersey (NHL) -140

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Northern Illinois + Bowling Green OVER 65