Tuesday 1/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#10 Lil Temptation	She has some tables to turn out of the fairly flat try last out at 3/5, but she goes for a new team today with a good outside draw to spy the speed. Could bounce back.
#7 Love the Sauce	She's probably a better fit here while dropping out of that flat allowance try, and something like her debut run would probably keep her in the mix with this group. One of the ones.
#2 Mo Twilight	There are a couple other potential forward players in here, but she has a couple of really committed running lines that suggest she might be the most serious of them.
Race Summary	Lil Temptation is a decent fit with these if she's able to move just a couple lengths in the right direction for the new team. Think she's well spotted to do that.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#4 Destino	He's stepping up a bit for this one, but he's bringing sharp recent form and turned in a really good effort over the local footing here two starts back. Think the reliable form fits.
#1 Stavros	He could be along too late while turning back, but he has some honest sprint form and just rolled a group going long here last out. Legged up for another rally.
#8 Notorious Sixohtwo	The better running lines on his page would make him tough, but he does his best work on the front end and might have a little company from the outside. Wouldn't be a shock to see him win this by five.
Race Summary	Destino has typically done good work here, and he might get a pretty good run of things while settled in behind a couple pace and prompting types.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#8 Parlay Charlie	She meets a few pressing types, but she appears to be the quickest serious pace player lined up here, and the outside draw should put her on the attack from the bell. Midrange price chance to force the issue throughout.
#3 Tierney	She is obviously one of the logical win candidates with that string of reliable runner-up finishes on the page, but I hate feeling like I'm defensively backing into a horse who keeps putting herself in a spot to win races and then failing to do so.
#2 Banana Pudding	She's an honest finisher with enough punch to run these down, but she'll probably be giving the top choice a big jump into the turn and isn't going to be a super appealing price on the board.
Race Summary	Parlay Charlie was an OK fit with similar last time out, and she looks like the controlling speed from a post that should let her manage this group from the start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#6 FOR FUN (7-2)	Well-spotted for return to main track, posted decent numbers going long on turf.
#2 FAT AND FURIOUS (5-2)	Finished between two of same rivals two back, benefits from slower pace.
#1 SHES GOT THE POWER (4-1)	Steady sort finished first or second in 6 of 14 at this distance.
Race Summary	FOR FUN, void of early speed in a grass route dominated by closers, made a move and flattened out. She takes a magnified class drop, having recently become eligible for this condition. She won 2 of 3 – all decided in photo finishes – when she last raced on dirt in September. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#4 MARK OF VICTORY (12-1)	Gets ideal set-up at inflated price for hot trainer-jockey tandem.
#5 MAGENS BAY (5-1)	Has awakened on Turf Paradise lawn, projects good trip in repeat bid.
#7 CLASSY LASS (3-1)	Led throughout at 10-to-1 in debut, chased and tired at 4-to-5 in follow up.
Race Summary	With plenty of speed in a large field of unproven long sprinters, take a longshot stab on MARK OF VICTORY. She has eight runner-up finishes in 14 starts on turf and is reunited for the team of trainer Valorie Lund and jockey Eduardo Gallardo, who are on an 11-for-44 streak with a positive return on investment. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#2 LUTHER PASS (8-5)	All-or-nothing on class plunge at a short price, take the ‘all’ route.
#7 HARBOR THUNDER (5-1)	Rallied for 6/1-2-1 record on Turf Paradise main track this year.
#6 REGAL REDWOOD (7-2)	Got the jump on deep-closing followers to win at 5-1/2F for new barn.
Race Summary	The warning signs are up, but if LUTHER PASS runs like he did in winning 2 of 3 starts and earning $19,820 for his new connections, he should live up to favoritism. Make a flat win bet and play a 2-7-ALL trifecta.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $14,600 • Post: 2:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GUARDIANSOF AUTISM is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BIG ELM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MASTER OF THE NITE: Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RAMSEY: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GUARDIANSOF AUTISM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	BIG ELM	4/1	6/1
8	MASTER OF THE NITE	5/2	6/1
6	RAMSEY	3/1	6/1
9	GUARDIANSOF AUTISM	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	GUARDIANSOF AUTISM	9	10/1	Front-runner	67	67	77.7	59.7	51.2
4	BIG ELM	4	4/1	Stalker	75	71	76.8	70.2	67.2
8	MASTER OF THE NITE	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	71	64.6	67.6	62.6
6	RAMSEY	6	3/1	Trailer	79	72	71.4	71.0	67.0
2	TORREFACTOR	2	7/2	Trailer	69	72	38.0	57.0	44.0
3	DOMI	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	54	59.0	57.4	43.9
7	CAPTAIN'S FLAG	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	58	58.8	35.1	21.6
5	TRUST FUND ROBBER	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	59	53.8	49.0	36.0
1	YOUNG ELVIS	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	48	40	36.0	36.0	20.5

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 4	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / 50 cent Pick 4 ( Races 4 - 7) Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 12:59
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 5 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * DARK TIMBER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. THE BULLION BOMBER (IRE): Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SUPER CONSTITUTION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIX WHIPS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. JUSTINSPEIGHT OFIT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	DARK TIMBER	5/2	6/1
5	THE BULLION BOMBER (IRE)	5/1	6/1
4	SUPER CONSTITUTION	10/1	7/1
6	SIX WHIPS	2/1	8/1
3	JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT	3/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	THE BULLION BOMBER (IRE)	5	5/1	Front-runner	92	90	93.2	66.6	61.6
1	DARK TIMBER	1	5/2	Front-runner	86	80	79.8	78.2	75.2
6	SIX WHIPS	6	2/1	Front-runner	84	79	67.6	77.0	66.5
8	BOOM BOOM KABOOM	8	30/1	Front-runner	76	63	67.2	50.6	34.6
7	PYLON	7	8/1	Front-runner	84	72	56.8	68.6	58.1
2	JW'S THIRD MISCHIE	2	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	80	87	62.2	74.6	62.6
3	JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT	3	3/1	Stalker	88	86	63.8	68.0	61.0
4	SUPER CONSTITUTION	4	10/1	Trailer	79	80	54.0	73.6	67.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:04pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 HOLY TUTTA BELLA (ML=7/2)
#2 DON'T TELL HYDEE (ML=8/1)


HOLY TUTTA BELLA - I like this mare a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Stick with this horse. Coming off the pace, I think she'll be in a wonderful spot to bury them in the stretch. This thoroughbred coming off a solid contest in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. DON'T TELL HYDEE - I have to believe Tubbs is making a good move here. This mare can only be aided by the shorter trip. When Americano and Tubbs team up on equines the ROI has been fantastic at +38. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Dropping 5 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ZAZEN (ML=8/5), #5 FREYAS CATZ (ML=5/1), #4 AWESOME TAYLOR (ML=6/1),

ZAZEN - This vulnerable equine hasn't been on the track since November 25th. Not even any morning drills. FREYAS CATZ - This mare showed very little last time out. AWESOME TAYLOR - Unlikely for this entrant to make a winning move with no recent good showings in a sprint affair. Hard to bet on at 6/1 odds after the two most recent outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 HOLY TUTTA BELLA to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 LIL TEMPTATION 10/1
# 2 MO TWILIGHT 9/2
# 7 LOVE THE SAUCE 3/1

LIL TEMPTATION figures to be the bet in here and is a very good value-based bet given the 10/1 line. Vaunts formidable speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. She has earned quite good numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this group of horses in this race. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this filly a very good shot. MO TWILIGHT - With a competitive 63 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. LOVE THE SAUCE - Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this filly. No strangers to the winner's circle, Farrior and Barbaran will almost certainly have this filly breaking away from the field.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 99

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO PA-RESTRICTED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 COLD FEET 9/2
# 2 YOUNG SQUIRE 4/1
# 5 BIG BOYS ANSWER 3/1

I think COLD FEET is a strong choice. Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. With one of the top jockeys in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Looks competitive to be close to the lead at the first call. YOUNG SQUIRE - Lately Padilla has provided players with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Over time, this handler has a very good return on investment at this distance/surface. BIG BOYS ANSWER - With a formidable 97 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,400 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#2 GLOBAL HYSTERIA (ML=3/1)


GLOBAL HYSTERIA - According to well-known handicapping experts, the stalking-type of horse is one of the most reliable bets in racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 IVORY SKY (ML=7/5), #5 RAY'S EMPIRE (ML=5/2), #6 PLAYFULASITGETS (ML=6/1),

IVORY SKY - Last ran on Aug 5th at Thistledown, finishing fourth. Unlikely to advance off of that performance in today's event. I think this probable favorite needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. RAY'S EMPIRE - This horse doesn't have a champion's disposition. Repeatedly finishes close, but no cigar. This gelding has had a great many efforts at Mahoning Valley Race Course and still no victories. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event. PLAYFULASITGETS - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with oddsmaker's morning line of 6/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - GLOBAL HYSTERIA - One can presume, given he finished out of the money at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out, that this horse did not like the off track. I expect a significant improvement with better footing today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 GLOBAL HYSTERIA to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 5:10 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$13500 - CLAIMING $17,500 NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER BALLY`S DOVER DRIVER CHOICES: TIM TETRICK 4 OVER 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 YES 5/2
# 2 CHIEF JUSTICE 9/2
# 1 GOO'S YOUR DADDY 6/1

We've got a gut feel YES is going to get the score. Getting a good thought about this gelding. Could surprise in this event. Could be the most favorable in the field here, showing really good statistics of late. Avg speed is a solid 83. Talk about a dynamic duo, Tetrick and Crissman-Bier have some of the best driver-trainer figures at the track. CHIEF JUSTICE - He has really good class numbers, averaging 81. Worth considering for a bet in here. Race players love to play the driver of this gelding - really good win pct in recent times. GOO'S YOUR DADDY - Could positively defeat this field of horses given the 78 speed rating achieved in his last race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 14
2	2	TELL'S VICTORY	7/2	Merriman, Aaron - 25	473.89
5	5	PRINCE JOHN	15/1	Massey, Kody - 8	467.91
9	9	MOOSS TRAX	6/1	Ciocca, John Jr - 12	433.49
6	6	CELTIC TIGER	2/1	Myers, Hunter - 16	433.01
1	1	VH VOLT	25/1	Day, James - 4	427.76
8	8	I WANT MY MONEY	25/1	Sugg, Kurt - 12	424.47
3	3	SILVER BENTLEY	9/5	Irvine, Justin - 12	408.02
4	4	DRAGON PURPLECHIPS	25/1	Kash, Keith Jr - 7	398.60
7	7	EXTRA CRUNCHY	25/1	Lems, Chris - 11	346.96

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
7	7	REBELLIOUS	3/1	Carter, William - 14	485.59
1	1	HALLELUJAH HANOVER	7/2	Devaux, Jim - 19	473.73
8	8	RUSTY BEACH	8/1	Merton, Michael - 23	459.86
5	5	KING OF ACES	4/1	Beckwith, Brett - 8	453.91
2	2	VEL TRUST IN TIME	5/2	Rawlings, Dan - 16	453.39
4	4	REMEMBER THE BEACH	6/1	Merton, Thomas - 10	445.56
3	3	WORLD FOR TWO	10/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 14	437.43
6	6	DAKOTA PEARL	9/2	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 12	416.94

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 4:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$18000 - N/W 4

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 MIDNIGHT ROCKER 5/2
# 2 MCTORIOUS 7/2
# 7 KING OF METAL AS 9/2

MIDNIGHT ROCKER will have you running to the cashier's window for this race. He's doing work in good form, recording clear-cut TrackMaster SRs. An excellent selection. The 88 average class figure may give this gelding a distinct edge in the pack. Earned a 87 TrackMaster SR last time out. A duplicate event here should get the win in this contest. MCTORIOUS - Has the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 87 TrackMaster Speed Rating. A really strong class horse can't be forgotten. With an average class rating of 86 all signs say it's go time. KING OF METAL AS - Overall figures appear nice. Can't throw out at this point. Noble will be looking to end up in the winner's circle this time, has been tearing it up recently. Win rate the past month is a sparkling 30.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: McNeese St -10 over Northwestern St

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Tuesday's Free Selection: LSU Tigers/Missouri Tigers over 151 1/2