Saturday 1/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Santa Anita - Race #6

#7 Citizen Barrett	He has been just a little one-paced late in his races so far, but he is a good fit with this modest crew overall and might have a chance to land this at a midrange price.
#12 Warren's C J	He finished up well in the debut run after leaving himself a lot of work to do, but he's in the mix right back with these if he has any small move forward in him from that run. Better break might go a long way to help his cause.
#1 Colonel Slade	Get a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but he could be ready enough to make some noise right out of the box, and I don't feel like he's meeting the deepest bunch for this level.
Race Summary	Citizen Barrett has some appeal here off a couple even efforts to kick off his career, but he finds a pretty soft spot for his return to where he ran OK enough in his debut try.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#2 Shapoval	Get a look at all these debuters ahead of this one, but I'm curious to start my work here with this guy going first time out in a race without much form on paper except the chalk.
#5 Cullen J	No doubt he's the one to beat, but that was also the case in his last two races when he was odds-on but couldn't seal the deal. Obvious threat to roll these, but he also seems vulnerable to getting nipped late again.
#6 Glass of Jameson	Could see him moving forward today while getting on the turf after a fairly modest debut run at Los Al, and the addition of Lasix might help, too.
Race Summary	Shapoval brings a steady enough tab to this one and might be ready enough to make some noise right out of the box. Cullen J is an obvious pace danger, but he could take a little heat early.

Santa Anita - Race #11

#5 Chilly Philly	Move back to the turf offers some hope to turn the tables on the ones who beat her last time out, as I think her two-back run might be competitive enough in a spot where some of the heavy hitters are still questions on turf.
#11 Hey Jessie	Not much to argue with from the last two, and there's not a real concern about the surface switch despite coming off the stakes win on the main last out. Obvious threat.
#10 Grateful My Love	She wasn't overmatched when fourth behind some of these last time out, and she's got a versatile enough pedigree to think she can handle the new footing.
Race Summary	Chilly Philly looks interesting enough at what should be a solid price after failing to sustain her move on the dirt. Could see her getting overlooked with a decent bit of upside today.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#10 VENEZUELAN FAITH (12-1)	Fits ok on best in first long sprint attempt, price attached.
#3 PARALEGAL (5-2)	Went fast up front to become lone winner in the field at this distance.
#5 SEVEN ANNIVERSARY (4-1)	Broke maiden in crowded field in return, figures up close throughout.
Race Summary	VENEZUELAN FAITH earned a competitive speed figure in a fast 6F sprint two back, then raced evenly and within range of the leaders for 6F in a follow-up route race. He cuts back to a long sprint and is worth a price stab in his third start for new connections. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-10 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#3 FORTYSIXCOUNTS (6-1)	Likes Tampa, goes long distance for first time after good return run.
#4 SEVEN BRIDGES ROAD (7-2)	Rallied into slow pace and flattened out in longer route at Churchill.
#1 LURE HIM IN (6-5)	Joined $500k Club with win in Florida bred stakes to start season last year.
Race Summary	FORTYSIXCOUNTS came out running with back-to-back romps at Tampa last year as a 4-year-old. He was laid off for six months after a dull try in a $25k optional claiming sprint at Monmouth Park, but had a useful return to town, rallying 4-wide on the turn while no factor in a fast 1:08-4/5 race. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#2 DANCING MAGIC (3-1)	Rallied wide in pair of 6F stakes, sprints long for first time with new rider.
#3 LYNN’S MILKY WAY (6-1	Seized the moment against troubled favorite in debut romp, starts fresh.
#6 MRS WORLDWIDE (5-2)	Well-traveled 3yo seeks third stakes win in a row, lures Irad.
Race Summary	DANCING MAGIC improved her position in two consecutive stakes races at 6F. She can avoid another wide trip from post 2 and should handle the extra 1/8th of a mile. Bet to win and place in the $150,000 Gasparilla Stakes.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Hotlist - January 11


Jan. 09, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Clm 35000B, 6F] – (2) Narciso Dali (C) has been away from the races since April when he was bet down from 7-1 to 3-1, set the pace, and finished second for a $50,000 tag. (4) Vinsanity was a winner in October in a $25,000 claimer and then tried three races that were too tough including the Cigar Mile. (6) Iridescent was claimed four times for $50,000 and finds a softer spot here. (3) Augustine Red Came back from a five month layoff in a similar spot and got taken after he set the pace and finished third.

2^nd race [Ladies, 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Tizzy in the Sky came back from a six month layoff to win the Go for Wand (G3) last month. She also won the Top Flight in April at Aqueduct going the nine furlong distance. (3) Evidencias won the Turnback the Alarm at the Big A in November. (5) Julia Shining returned from a six month layoff to win an allowance at Aqueduct. She is a past Grade 2 winner. (4) Comparative won the Bayakoa (G3) last year and seems to be off form in her recent races but on her best she is a contender.

3^rd race [Clm 16000 N2L, 6F] – (7) York Tavern may have found the right field with six second or third-place finishes in a row. (5) Conniving hit the board seven times from 15 career starts with five second-places. (1) Camm’ Duke will take a drop in class having run for higher prices and in starter allowances. He has early speed which is to his advantage in this field. (4) Masterwork has a pair of recent thirds against this type of field.

9^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Prince Valiant (B) had the lead and finished third in his debut at 5-1 behind a horse that is expected to try the Kentucky Derby trail next time. (11) Total Silence (B) got stuck in traffic, had the lead, and lost a head bob in a maiden claimer as a heavy favorite. He changed barns in the past month. (10) Vekinda finished in the top three in his only races and has shown plenty of early speed and a top figure last month. (4) Attorney Wade has a series of good works for his debut which will be aided by Lasix.

Best bets: Tizzy in the Sky (2^nd); York Tavern (3^rd). Best Value: Narciso Dali (1^st); Prince Valiant (9^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 1-3 and includes the Ladies Stakes ? 2, 3, 4, 6 with 1, 3 with 1, 5, 7 = $24.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(2)	Narcisco Dali	C on 4/4	1	Returns from a layoff and drops down in class.
(6)	Prince Valiant	B on 12/8	9	Ran third in his first start against a strong field.
(11)	Total Silence	A on 11/30	9	Changed barns after losing a head bob.

[ConleyPicks]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 11


Jan. 09, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (7) Got Sunny has enough speed to lead throughout here. (9) Reverand Moon should welcome a return to turf. (4) Westside Tide should respond to a drop into a claimer. (10) Hurricane Express looms a late threat. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7-9-10.

4th race – (6) Vanderbilt is an interesting firster from Cox who merits top billing. (7) Skate Away debuts for Pletcher and should be a factor. (9) Tiger Twenty Four is worth a look in a field dominated by firsters. (3) White Whale could be a threat on his best try. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-7-9.

6th race – (5) Krioyo has won his last two on Tapeta. Can make it a hat trick here. (6) Bold N Breezy missed by a neck last time and is the one to fear. (1) Sell It will be a major force from the rail. (4) Dual Income can make it two in a row here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-6.

8th race – (9) Bizmaline was bumped at the start and didn’t fire. Makes amends here. (2) Spider Belle should be a key contender at the level. (12) Smart Spending is in great form but landed a tough post. (4) Go Big Green may respond to a jockey switch. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-9-12.

10th race - (4) Secret Chat (C) was bet down from 3-1 to 2-1 and posted a second straight win. Can make it three in a row here. (5) Awesome Train also seeks a third straight win and will be formidable. (2) Khozeiress could wake up in this spot. (12) Big Martini fits with this group but landed a difficult post. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-12.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(4)	Secret Chat	C, 12/20	10 GP	Chases a third straight win

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 11, 2025


Jan. 09, 2025

Race 6 at Turfway Park | Saturday January 11 | Post Time 8:25 PM Eastern

Likely Exchange Stakes | Purse $1250,000 | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Olds and Upward | One Mile

Analysis and top contenders:

Earhart (2) has dominated in two races to date, winning by a combined margin of 18 lengths. Better still, in both races Earhart glided on the front end on faster than average fractions in fields of eight and never gave any other horse a shot as she was in front by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to run in both races. Both were on the similar all-weather at Woodbine, at seven furlongs, and from the two post with the horse inside having no early speed, Earhart should once again get an easy lead and never look back. The 101 Equibase Figure earned last out in her second career start is already the highest last race figure in the field, and it should be improved upon in the filly’s third career start. She shipped in from Canada four weeks ago and has been pointing to this race with three solid works over the track as well.

Everland (11) has a slight probability to win if Earhart can lead from start to finish, as she has shown a big kick at Turfway, where she has won three of six. The best of those wins came last March in the Bourbonette Oaks where she rallied from sixth of 10 to win, with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure. She’s in good recent form as she finished second of 10 in the My Charmer Stakes four weeks ago over the track with a 99 figure, so she is definitely the second most probable horse to win and if she doesn’t win, she is highly likely to finish second for an easy exacta.

Bets:

Win Bets –Earhart (2) at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Earhart (2) over Everland (11), alsoBox Earhart (2) and Everland (11).

[ConleyPicks]

Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - January 11


Jan. 10, 2025

Race #1

Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:30 PM ET

Best Bet #3 PARALEGAL $18,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	5-2	3	Paralegal	H R Diaz Jr.
Place	4-1	5	Seven Anniversary	S Marin
Show	2-1	1	Bang a Rang	A Santos
Wild card	10-1	6	Sa Sa Sa	J A Batista
Alternate 1	10-1	4	Milchin	S Camacho
Alternate 2	12-1	10	Venezuelan Faith	D Centeno

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 1 Mile 40 Yards - Post Time: 12:58 PM ET

Best Bet #4 SEVEN BRIDGES ROAD $54,000.00

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	4	Seven Bridges Road	A Gonzalez
Place	6-1	3	Fortysixcounts	A A Gallardo
Show	12-1	2	Outofthedark	E Greenidge
Wild card	4-1	7	Sir Saffer	J C Ferrer
Alternate 1	6-5	1	Lure Him In	E Gonzalez
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Slim Slow Slider	C Lindsay

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:28 PM ET $53,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	8-1	2	Costa Amalfitana	M A Vasquez
Place	15-1	3	Goshaki Goshaki	C Gonzalez
Show	3-1	8	Cease Fire	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	7-2	7	Curlaine	S Camacho
Alternate 1	15-1	14	Mt. dOro	P Morales
Alternate 2	9-2	6	Top Pocket Pick	J A Batista

Exacta 2-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/8 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:58 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	5-2	5	Naughty Rascal	E Gonzalez
Place	4-5	6	Owen Almighty	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	20-1	3	Cockeyed	A A Gallardo
Wild card	3-1	4	Rookie Card	J Alvarado
Alternate 1	30-1	1	Juan Colorado	C Gil
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Very Bold	J L Castanon

Exacta 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:28 PM ET $150,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	5-2	6	Mrs Worldwide	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-1	4	Vuela Paloma	D Centeno
Show	2-1	7	Win N Your In	M A Vasquez
Wild card	6-1	3	Lynns Milky Way	J C Ferrer
Alternate 1	3-1	2	Dancing Magic	J Alvarado
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Another Cleeshay	R Montanez

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
Trifecta 4/6/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

Race #6

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:58 PM ET

Best Bet #9 ENCHANT $53,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	9	Enchant	S Marin
Place	4-1	12	Starship Boeing	M A Vasquez
Show	3-1	2	Back to Gridlock	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	4-1	11	Autumns Turn	M Iorio
Alternate 1	9-2	10	Just One More	H R Diaz Jr.
Alternate 2	5-1	1	Union Harmony	E Gonzalez

Exacta 9-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX
Trifecta 2/9/12 BOX, 2/11/12 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:28 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	2-1	1	Peignoir	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	20-1	7	Easy Come Easy Go	S Leon
Show	4-1	3	Abundancia	M A Vasquez
Wild card	6-1	5	Literate	S Camacho
Alternate 1	15-1	9	Americas Vow	H R Diaz Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	4	American Retro	A A Gallardo

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

Race #8

Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 03:58 PM ET $53,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	5-1	14	Rachels Song	S Camacho
Place	10-1	10	Seat At the Table	A A Gallardo
Show	6-1	4	Dreaming of Abba	H R Diaz Jr.
Wild card	7-5	3	Shade of Pale	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	2-1	11	Citational	S Marin
Alternate 2	9-2	9	Singalong Kayla	J C Ferrer

Exacta 14-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
Trifecta 4/10/14 BOX, 3/4/10 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:28 PM ET $54,000.00

Race 9 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-5	4	Nutella Fella	J Alvarado
Place	6-1	7	Chrome Ghost	S Camacho
Show	8-1	3	Paynted Warrior	R Feliciano
Wild card	30-1	9	Timeless Bounty	D Centeno
Alternate 1	20-1	6	Catire Vizcaya	M Meneses
Alternate 2	8-1	2	Go Otto Go	K S Tohill

Exacta 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/7 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

Race #10

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:58 PM ET $25,500.00

Race 10 Claiming

Win	3-1	5	A Western Yarn	D Centeno
Place	5-1	10	Justintimeforwine	J C Ferrer
Show	8-1	14	English Painter	S Leon
Wild card	9-2	8	Policy Option	S Marin
Alternate 1	4-1	1	Harpoon Harry	E Gonzalez
Alternate 2	6-1	6	You Talkin to Me	H R Diaz Jr.

Exacta 5-10 BOX, 10-14 BOX, 14-8 BOX
Trifecta 5/10/14 BOX, 8/10/14 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - January 11


Jan. 10, 2025

Race #1

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:45 PM ET $28,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	3-1	3	Runnin Munnin	J A Guerrero
Place	5-2	6	Cascade Cruiser	M Murrill
Show	5-1	1	Dustin the Diamond	C J Hernandez
Wild card	3-1	4	Tiger Moon	J A Torres
Alternate 1	5-1	7	Just Jimmy	E Morales
Alternate 2	12-1	2	Impeccability	J Riquelme

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

Race #2

Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:15 PM ET

Best Bet #2 SWEET TEMPERAMENT $25,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	7-5	2	Sweet Temperament	C J Hernandez
Place	7-2	1	Rambert	M Murrill
Show	6-1	8	A Runnin Afleet	J Loveberry
Wild card	6-1	3	Going the Distance	D Cannon
Alternate 1	5-1	6	Jaydensqueenoharts	J A Torres
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Fit and Famous	C McMahon

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:45 PM ET

Best Bet #6 LURED AWAY $32,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Optional Claiming

Win	9-5	6	Lured Away	C J Hernandez
Place	6-1	2	Diamond Eyed Jack	B Curtis
Show	3-1	5	High Ceiling	J L Ortiz
Wild card	6-1	4	First Division	E Morales
Alternate 1	9-2	3	Ragnow	J Loveberry
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Date the Prince	D H Magnon

Exacta 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

Race #4

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:45 PM ET $59,000.00

Race 4 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	2	Icem Up Boys	J L Ortiz
Place	9-2	10	Unified Report	M Murrill
Show	7-2	3	House Bourbon	B Curtis
Wild card	6-1	6	Passing Judgment	M Pedroza Jr.
Alternate 1	8-1	1	American Dollars	J Loveberry
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Wise Verdict	F Geroux

Exacta 2-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/10 BOX, 3/6/10 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:15 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	3-1	2	Six String	B Curtis
Place	3-1	3	Freeburn	E Morales
Show	4-1	4	Classy Judy G	M Pedroza Jr.
Wild card	5-2	1	Manama Gold	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Luyv	S Munoz
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Royal OHaigain	J Loveberry

Exacta 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:05 PM ET

Best Bet #1 HAY JUDE $59,000.00

Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	1	Hay Jude	E Morales
Place	9-2	7	Face the Future	M Murrill
Show	4-1	5	Lil Muggs	J L Ortiz
Wild card	6-1	8	Normandy Coast	B Curtis
Alternate 1	4-1	4	Big Rasee	C McMahon
Alternate 2	5-1	6	Complex Music	F Geroux

Exacta 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

Race #7

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:35 PM ET $60,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	5	Steady On	J L Ortiz
Place	5-1	4	Rockn a Halo	D Cannon
Show	6-1	8	Eff Thirty Five	J Graham
Wild card	9-2	7	Grays Fable	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Calicoco	J A Guerrero
Alternate 2	4-1	2	Smokey Mandate	J Loveberry

Exacta 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:25 PM ET $100,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	2-1	6	Jack Hammer	J L Ortiz
Place	9-5	3	Geaux Sugar	M Murrill
Show	8-1	8	Not On Herb	J Loveberry
Wild card	9-2	5	El Dinero	J Graham
Alternate 1	12-1	1	Lauris Wish	J Riquelme
Alternate 2	20-1	4	Mangum	C J Hernandez

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

Race #9

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:55 PM ET $61,000.00

Race 9 Allowance

Win	9-2	5	Dixie Farmer	A Concepcion
Place	9-5	2	Clearly a Test	J A Guerrero
Show	9-2	7	Jet Rocket	B Curtis
Wild card	9-2	10	Certified Gem	F Geroux
Alternate 1	12-1	6	Box of Pictures	E Morales
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Accommodate Eva	J Barbosa

Exacta 5-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/7 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - January 11


Jan. 10, 2025

Race #1

Turf 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:30 PM ET $60,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-5	8	Miles Finch	F Prat
Place	6-1	5	Giant Luther	J J Hernandez
Show	7-2	6	Got Soul	K Kimura
Wild card	12-1	7	James J. Braddock	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	12-1	1	Fix It Quick	A Ayuso

Exacta 8-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/8 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:01 PM ET

Best Bet #6 TRUE MANTRA $14,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Claiming

Win	9-5	6	True Mantra	F T Alvarado
Place	2-1	5	P Twentytwo	K E Orozco
Show	10-1	1	Unusual Memories	M Americano
Wild card	8-1	3	Shake the Dust	H Herrera
Alternate 1	20-1	10	Jeffrey On the Run	E Garcia
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Captain Willis	A Gomez

Exacta 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

Race #3

Downhill turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:32 PM ET $125,000.00

Race 3 Stakes

Win	2-5	1	Stay and Scam	U Rispoli
Place	7-2	2	Moments Pleasure	K Kimura
Show	20-1	6	Satellite Heart	L Dettori
Wild card	12-1	4	Quantum Innergy	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	6-1	3	Andiamo Ragazza	J J Hernandez
Alternate 2	20-1	5	Dendera	A Espinoza

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:02 PM ET $33,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Claiming

Win	4-5	4	Mayacama	J J Hernandez
Place	2-1	2	Naturally Blonde	F Prat
Show	5-1	3	Miss Miche Lada	K Frey
Wild card	20-1	6	Be a Goldfish	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	15-1	7	Jazz Spot	K Kimura
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Our Lovin Feelin	C Ortega

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

Race #5

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:32 PM ET $125,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	2-5	2	Big City Lights	K Kimura
Place	8-1	1	Smiling Beast	A Ayuso
Show	15-1	3	Haywood	E A Maldonado
Wild card	10-1	4	Geezer	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	5-2	5	Clovisconnection	W Antongeorgi III

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

Race #6

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:02 PM ET $33,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Claiming

Win	8-1	6	Pax a Punch	T J Pereira
Place	12-1	7	Citizen Barrett	A Lezcano
Show	9-2	1	Colonel Slade	E A Maldonado
Wild card	4-1	8	Santa Barbarian	F Prat
Alternate 1	15-1	9	Marc the Money Man	S Carmona
Alternate 2	20-1	3	Checks On the Way	L Dettori

Exacta 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/7 BOX, 1/7/8 BOX

Race #7

Turf 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:32 PM ET

Best Bet #5 CULLEN J $60,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-5	5	Cullen J	A Fresu
Place	5-1	9	Lord Dunmore	A Lezcano
Show	15-1	4	Twilight Time	K Kimura
Wild card	12-1	2	Shapoval	G Franco
Alternate 1	10-1	6	Glass of Jameson	J J Hernandez
Alternate 2	12-1	10	Dawkins	K Frey

Exacta 5-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/9 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:02 PM ET

Best Bet #8 OUR BUCKY CHARM $61,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	8	Our Bucky Charm	J J Hernandez
Place	2-1	4	Lonesome Stew	A Fresu
Show	15-1	11	Duty First	T J Pereira
Wild card	6-1	9	Devil Among Us	E A Maldonado
Alternate 1	5-1	7	Windribbon	F Prat
Alternate 2	15-1	6	My Man Bags	A Aguilar

Exacta 8-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX
Trifecta 4/8/11 BOX, 4/9/11 BOX

Race #9

Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 06:34 PM ET $175,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	10-1	2	On the Whim	T J Pereira
Place	8-5	10	Old Pal	A Fresu
Show	3-1	11	Aligato	F Prat
Wild card	15-1	7	We Can	T Baze
Alternate 1	8-1	8	Coalinga Road	U Rispoli

Exacta 2-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/10/11 BOX, 7/10/11 BOX

Race #10

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 07:04 PM ET $175,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	2-1	4	R Heisman	F Prat
Place	5-2	3	Shea Brennan	A Fresu
Show	3-1	1	Im a Bad Boy	R Gonzalez
Wild card	6-1	8	Style Cat	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	10-1	5	Drop Um	M E Smith
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Gotm Cotm	K Frey

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX

Race #11

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 07:34 PM ET $175,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	6-1	12	Take Another Card	L Dettori
Place	12-1	9	Pavel Is Appealing	M Gutierrez
Show	6-1	1	Tequilaandtherapy	E A Maldonado
Wild card	4-1	11	Hey Jessie	K Frey
Alternate 1	15-1	4	Musical Number	K Kimura
Alternate 2	8-1	8	In the Air Tonight	T J Pereira

Exacta 12-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
Trifecta 1/9/12 BOX, 1/9/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - January 11


Jan. 10, 2025

Race #1

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:55 PM ET $31,900.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	12-1	6	Right On Right On	F De La Cruz
Place	2-1	11	Altobelli	L Machado
Show	3-1	8	El Sargento	I Moncada
Wild card	10-1	12	Goodmenarescarce	Y L Correa
Alternate 1	20-1	1	Out of the Clouds	A P Ulloa
Alternate 2	4-1	9	Keeno	J D Ramos

Exacta 6-11 BOX, 11-8 BOX, 8-12 BOX
Trifecta 6/8/11 BOX, 8/11/12 BOX

Race #2

All Weather Track 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:25 PM ET

Best Bet #8 CAMPAIGN TRAIL $80,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	8	Campaign Trail	I Moncada
Place	10-1	6	Jujubee	G Corrales
Show	3-1	5	Big Vince	D Cohen
Wild card	6-1	11	Quintillion	A Beschizza
Alternate 1	10-1	7	Pagode	L Machado
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Ornato	O Villarreal

Exacta 8-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/8 BOX, 5/6/11 BOX

Race #3

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:55 PM ET $82,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	2	Piquant	G Saez
Place	5-2	1	Austin Cruise	J D Ramos
Show	3-1	4	Rulookinforrayray	I Moncada
Wild card	3-1	6	El Dandi	O Villarreal
Alternate 1	15-1	3	El Cordobes	A Calleja
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Baytown Baracus	A Serpa

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

Race #4

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:25 PM ET $30,900.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	2-1	3	Crosstown Shootout	G Corrales
Place	8-1	8	Easy Operator	G Saez
Show	6-1	1	Major Wager	J D Ramos
Wild card	3-1	2	Spirit Animal	I Moncada
Alternate 1	6-1	5	All in Sync	J E Felix
Alternate 2	20-1	7	Dr. Zarnett	A Achard

Exacta 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

Race #5

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:55 PM ET $18,500.00

Race 5 Maiden Claiming

Win	4-1	10	Evalina	J D Ramos
Place	7-2	7	Outrage	W A Rodriguez
Show	9-2	4	Baytown Shinjuku	O Villarreal
Wild card	10-1	2	Berries and Cream	G Saez
Alternate 1	6-1	9	Catalog Queen	G Corrales
Alternate 2	8-1	14	Scary Proposition	G Corrales

Exacta 10-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/10 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

Race #6

All Weather Track 1 Mile - Post Time: 08:25 PM ET $125,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	8-1	9	Shes Fancy	S Doyle
Place	5-2	2	Earhart	L Contreras
Show	3-1	11	Everland	A Cedillo
Wild card	6-1	10	Peignoir	L Machado
Alternate 1	20-1	12	Hurry Up Hannah	J D Ramos
Alternate 2	30-1	1	Stay Lost	Y L Correa

Exacta 9-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/9/11 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX

Race #7

All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:55 PM ET

Best Bet #12 NOBALS $86,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	12	Nobals	W A Rodriguez
Place	3-1	7	One Timer	E T Baird
Show	7-2	5	Mischievous Rogue	J Rocco Jr.
Wild card	15-1	3	Rondure	I Moncada
Alternate 1	12-1	11	B D Valeski	G Saez
Alternate 2	20-1	10	Prince Abu Dhabi	G Corrales

Exacta 12-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
Trifecta 5/7/12 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

Race #8

All Weather Track 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:25 PM ET $81,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	12-1	9	Jimmy Rules	A Jimenez
Place	10-1	14	Silent Sunday	G Corrales
Show	3-1	10	Safe Trip Home	L Machado
Wild card	5-1	4	Transcendental	J D Ramos
Alternate 1	4-1	2	Hilarious Affair	R M Hernandez
Alternate 2	8-1	12	Royal Sandrin	W A Rodriguez

Exacta 9-14 BOX, 14-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
Trifecta 9/10/14 BOX, 4/10/14 BOX

Race #9

All Weather Track 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:55 PM ET

Best Bet #8 COPPER MISSILE $31,900.00

Race 9 Claiming

Win	4-1	8	Copper Missile	L Machado
Place	10-1	11	Publius	A Cedillo
Show	10-1	14	Shipman	R M Hernandez
Wild card	12-1	7	God of Wine	G Saez
Alternate 1	7-2	6	Anglican	O Villarreal
Alternate 2	12-1	10	Speed Institute	L Sosa

Exacta 8-11 BOX, 11-14 BOX, 14-7 BOX
Trifecta 8/11/14 BOX, 7/11/14 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 41

FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 POSEIDON 2/1
# 6 JENGIBRE 5/1
# 1 INSTALADOR 3/1

I lean toward POSEIDON here. Should finish in the top three without a doubt. I like the jock on this colt - formidable chance to win the affair. JENGIBRE - Handler has solid win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface. INSTALADOR - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good handicapping key. This entrant ranks at the top in this lot.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Sam Houston - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#5 ZITI (FR) (ML=9/2)
#3 TIZ A KNOCKOUT (ML=12/1)


ZITI (FR) - This deep closer should have a big impact on this race. Expect a solid closing kick. Was in a Maiden Special race at Remington Park last time around the track. That event had a class number of 81 and she is moving down in this race. A certain strong challenger. TIZ A KNOCKOUT - Don't often see a profitable ROI like +20. This jockey/trainer duo has done well together over the last 12 months. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I believe can be a valuable factor. This horse is ranked at the very top in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LEGACY DEFINED (ML=7/5), #6 SUGARCOAT (ML=5/2), #2 HOOH HER (ML=8/1),

SUGARCOAT - This animal hasn't shown very much in the last couple affairs. HOOH HER - This entrant hasn't shown much in the last couple of races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ZITI (FR) on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Super High 5
Optional Claiming $32,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 4:28P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $32,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NUTELLA FELLA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CHROME GHOST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. THRILL OF IT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. PAYNTED WARRIOR : Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DIVINE LEADER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	NUTELLA FELLA	4/5	5/1
7	CHROME GHOST	6/1	6/1
1	THRILL OF IT	5/1	7/1
3	PAYNTED WARRIOR	8/1	8/1
8	DIVINE LEADER	30/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	PAYNTED WARRIOR	3	8/1	Front-runner	97	92	86.7	75.7	64.7
2	GO OTTO GO	2	8/1	Front-runner	93	91	69.4	84.0	67.5
5	EIGHTYSIXCHEVY	5	30/1	Stalker	85	74	70.6	74.0	57.0
8	DIVINE LEADER	8	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	94	71.4	89.6	81.1
7	CHROME GHOST	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	99	92	68.2	91.8	83.3
1	THRILL OF IT	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	93	66.6	90.0	84.0
9	TIMELESS BOUNTY	9	30/1	Trailer	91	79	57.8	85.2	74.2
4	NUTELLA FELLA	4	4/5	Trailer	103	95	54.3	86.7	82.2
10	SAYBROOK	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	97	81	77.6	78.2	67.7
6	CATIRE VIZCAYA	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	88	65.4	69.6	54.1

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $54000 Class Rating: 85

FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ALESS QUEEN 9/5
# 2 STAR OF SATURN 5/2
# 4 EMIRATES AFFAIR 10/1

ALESS QUEEN looks formidable to best this field. Bettors should probably feel comfortable with this selection given Jaramillo's recent gains at the window. Had one of the best speed figs of this field in her last contest. Has put up strong Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. STAR OF SATURN - Could best this group of horses here, showing very strong figs of late. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of formidable win percentage - 18 percent - at this distance & surface. EMIRATES AFFAIR - Could provide positive gains based on quite good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 77. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a definite contender.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 1:30P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, (INCLUDES UP TO $6,000 OTHER SOURCES) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CAPTAIN EAGLE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GRAY THORNS: Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SNOWLADY TRAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TOAST TO THE EAGLE: Quarter horse has the high est last race Equibase Speed Rating.
2	CAPTAIN EAGLE	4/1	5/1
7	GRAY THORNS	3/1	5/1
8	SNOWLADY TRAIN	7/2	6/1
6	TOAST TO THE EAGLE	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SWEET TADPOLE	1	10/1	Fast	60	59	1.0	0.0	0.0
2	CAPTAIN EAGLE	2	4/1	Slow	83	68	6.3	0.0	0.0
3	SHES A FAST ROGUE AW	3	8/1	Slow	54	49	6.2	0.0	0.0
4	EMPYRICAL	4	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.1	0.0	0.0
5	AH MR MAJESSTIC	5	6/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	TOAST TO THE EAGLE	6	5/1	Slow	72	63	6.4	0.0	0.0
7	GRAY THORNS	7	3/1	Average	83	66	4.5	0.0	0.0
8	SNOWLADY TRAIN	8	7/2	Average	83	64	5.0	0.0	0.0