Wednesday 1/15/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:37 AM

Scott Shapiro: Turfway $180K Pick 5 Carryover Analysis | Wed.

January 14, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

After a week off from racing due to poor weather and track conditions in Northern Kentucky, Turfway Park should finally be set for their late Pick 5 carryover of over $180k on Wednesday night. The sequence kicks off in Race 6 and concludes with a $30k maiden claimer at two-turns. Let’s see if we can earn our share of what should be a big pool to start the racing week in the Blue Grass.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Halfway Joking; 2 Timetomakemischief
Backups: None

Forecast: As often is the case, this MSW event for 4YOs+ features a combination of horses that got off to a late start to their career and those that have had far too many chances to trust. 5-2-morning line favorite #1 Thunder Appeal fits under the former. The son of Air Force Blue did not race for the first time until September 8 of his 3YO season, which is saying a lot since he is owned/trained by Wesley Ward. Ward obviously is one of the best at having his stock ready early, so that is never the greatest sign. Add to it a pair of losses as the public choice to kick off his career and you have a runner I am quite willing to fade.

The same is true for 3-1-second choice #8 Shortstop, who fits under the too many chances branding. The Ben Colebrook trainee makes his eighth career start, third over the Turfway all-weather, after an even third-place finish with little excuse on December 14. #6 Halfway Joking and #7 Geno’s Myth also exit that race. Halfway Joking finished last of the trio, but I like him most in this spot. The son of Practical Joke gets blinkers in his second start of the form cycle after breaking slowly and pulling his way up to the front while three-wide before tiring late. He appears capable of a move forward with the start under his belt off the freshening and the addition of shades. #2 Timetomakemischief also intrigues in his first local start for trainer Whit Beckman. The son of Into Mischief has had plenty of chances thus far, but comes in off a career best run in his second start for Beckman. Gerardo Corrales takes the call.

Race 7:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Tizzy Jojo
Backups: 4 Tall Girl

Forecast: #9 Tizzy Jojo returns to Kentucky after competing over the muddy track in a starter allowance event at Mahoning Valley to end her 4YO campaign. Prior to that trip to Ohio, the Indiana-bred tried the Turfway Park synthetic for the first time and ran well. The Tiz Sardonic mare broke a touch slow from the rail draw that night and had to be used quite a bit in the early stages by jockey Yan Aviles. Despite the less-than-ideal voyage, she finished second beaten just a length. The Tim Eggleston trainee moves outside, drops into the claiming ranks, and finds a field that lacks early speed. I like her chances quite a bit to get to the wire first with veteran rider Santo Sanjur getting the leg up.

#4 Tall Girl is an intriguing alternative. The First Samurai mare makes her first start off the claim for trainer Doug Danner. Danner sports an incredibly impressive $2.14 ROI at Turfway Park over a 532-start sample size and moves this gal up in class after a stalk and fade on January 3. She may have too much to do late, but if they go faster on the front end than I expect, she is capable of out finishing this group on the cutback to one-turn.

Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Queen Judith; 8 Fantastical
Backups: 2 Quarrel

Forecast: #8 Fantastical is likely to be a popular single in her second start of the meet for trainer Joe Sharp. The Air Force Blue filly missed by a head despite getting a favorable stalking trip on December 27 against similar. She once again projects to get a prominent voyage in a race where there is not much early zip signed on making her the clear horse to beat.

#6 Queen Judith is an interesting option as well though in her first start since July ’23. The daughter of Empire Maker was in the Mark Casse barn, but now is under the care of trainer Larry Rivelli. Rivelli has hit at a 29% clip with a $1.96 ROI over a near 600-start sample size of horses coming back off 90+ day breaks. This gal has races to go back to that beat these and should be rolling late under Gerardo Corrales.

#2 Quarrel was beaten handily by Fantastical last time, but moves inside. This should allow jockey Walter Rodriguez to work out a favorable trip, instead of being caught wide in a race where those coming from off the pace were at a disadvantage. With a clean break, she should have no issue finding a much more prominent spot than she did to end her 2024 campaign.

Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Enchanted Nile; 3 Sickle Dance
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this second-level allowance event at 6-furlongs given the presence of #5 Riparound. The daughter of Uncle Mo has a lot of early speed, but has struggled to finish the deal far more often than not, including last out when she made an easy lead, but tired on her own. She is likely to make the lead once again, but expecting her to finish this group off seems like wishful thinking. #1 Heart draws the rail after breaking from the far outside in her first race over this surface last month. The Brittany Russell trainee broke well from the far outside in that December 19 try and worked out a stress-free voyage, yet still tired late to finish fourth as the 5-2-favorite. She is likely to have to work much harder in the early stages from the rail draw making her tough to trust as the morning line choice.

#2 Enchanted Nile Is a tough read, but probably the one to beat. The 8YO mare has raced 37 times, but never over an all-weather surface. Larry Rivelli claimed her for $30k at Remington Park in late November and shows confidence raising her up in class for her initial try for the high-percentage conditioner. I will use her, as well as #3 Sickle Dance who makes her second start of the meet for trainer Kelsey Danner.

Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Baroquen Record
Backups: 6 Mubarez; 4 Train and Trust

Forecast: I like #3 Baroquen Record most in the finale. The Caravaggio colt drops again in class after a stalk and fade effort against $50k maiden claimers to end his 2YO season. Expect a move forward here for the Skychai Racing homebred since his trainer has been on fire in Florence of late. In fact, trainer Mike Maker is 6 for 14 at Turfway Park over the last 20 days for an ROI of $4.91. It will not take much to beat this group. Jockey Luan Machado takes the call for the first time.

#6 Mubarez was made the 3-1-morning line favorite by odds maker Mike Battaglia on the class drop and surface switch for trainer Brad Cox. He gets some big-time class relief after a slow start off the board effort on debut against protected maidens at Churchill Downs. If the Maker charge tires in the lane again, this Authentic colt is an obvious alternative. #4 Train and Trust is sensical as well despite four consecutive off the board finishes to start his career. Trainer John Langemeier is far better known for winning with Indiana-breds at Horseshoe Indy, but is highly capable with animals bred in all states. The Tapiture gelding ran a bit better than looks in his Turfway Park debut in early December.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:38 AM

Quigley Ready for Beat the Host Week 3; Gulden Golden Last Week

January 15, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Santa Anita simulcast pregame host Tom Quigley takes the stage in Week 3 of the 20th annual Xpressbet Beat the Host handicapping contest this Saturday. Outplay him for your share of $67,500 in weekly and seasonal prizes. Glenn Gulden bested the competition – and hostess Millie Ball – last Saturday with $219 in mutuel returns over the 10 contest races and earned the $1,000 weekly prize.

Gulden’s $219 total easily was highest so far this season in Beat the Host play. Week 2 runner-up William McMillan ($177 mutuel total) earned an additional $750 in prize money, while Jack Jenkins ($172.50 mutuel total) finished third and added another $250. Ball, like Pete Aiello in Week 1, managed 2 winners in the Host chair. So far, 331 players have qualified for the Beat the Host Championship by winning a weekly head-to-head against the hosts.

Note that last week’s competition races were the final 10 on the Gulfstream Park program following the cancellation of racing at Santa Anita.

Beat the Host encompasses 10 races each contest Saturday, split between the final 5 Gulfstream Park races and first 5 from Santa Anita. Contestants place $5 win bets on the Xpressbet platform for each of the 10 Beat the Host races, earning their parimutuel winnings as well as rising up the leaderboard and potentially topping the experts.

Register here.

Beat the host’s total once to qualify for the March 8 BTH Championship (maximum 2 seats per qualifier). Weekly prizes include $1,000 to the contestant with the highest accumulated dollar total, as well as $750 to second and $250 to third. The BTH Championship will pit all weekly winning players against one another in pursuit of seats in the lucrative Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge, Xpressbet Santa Anita Derby Challenge and Xpressbet Florida Derby Challenge tournaments.

A sweep the host bonus ($6,500) and season leaderboard champion (Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge, 1/ST Ultimate Betting Challenge seats) also are in prize play. Through the first week, 120 players remain eligible in the sweep the host bonus chase (144 fell by the wayside during Week 2).

The host lineup for the season:

Jan. 4—Pete Aiello (Gulfstream Park)
Jan. 11--Millie Ball (Santa Anita & XBTV)
Jan. 18-- Tom Quigley (Santa Anita)
Jan. 25--Jeff Siegel (1/ST BET & XBTV)
Feb. 1--Brian Nadeau (Gulfstream Park)
Feb. 8--Frank Mirahmadi (Santa Anita)
Feb. 1--Jeremy Plonk (1/ST BET)
Feb 22--Ron Nicoletti (Gulfstream Park)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#4 Angel I'm Not	Think she gets the right trip today while prompting the rail runner throughout, and she might have just a touch better finishing punch than that one.
#1 Lil Bit	She has turned in a couple good ones and looks like the one to beat, I just think she's going to get herself into a fight with the top choice into the lane and may not be in the winning spot for that one.
#7 Sharp Lady	Her form quickly went south again after that one good start in November, but the price should be right to see if she can get back to that kind of effort today, as it would be enough for a piece with this group.
Race Summary	Angel I'm Not and Lil Bit look like the right pair here, but I think the former might offer a touch better price with a better trip looming throughout.

Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#4 Dusty Billy	He steps up off the graduation run, and and he has already shown a little bit of honest finishing ability. Could trip out again here while rising to try winners.
#6 Gretchens Mane Man	His form is all over the place, but he has also spent those last two running in stakes company, so he could wake up a bit here on the drop. Better stuff might do.
#1 So That's That	Tactical speed punched home well to score last time out, but I worry that he might get a tricky run from the fence with that kind of forward pace.
Race Summary	Dusty Billy might be an OK price while stepping up here, and I think he'll be in a great spot to keep tabs on the pace from the start here.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 Silver Is a Gift	Willing to forgive the no-show effort last out, as he figures capable of something much better today while getting a decent run from the rail.
#5 Be An Eddie	Tough call here with that dud on his page last time out, but obviously something like the debut run might keep him in the mix today. Not sure I'd want to find out which guy's showing up at too short a price today.
#4 Drill Em	He woke up with a much improved effort last time out, but he was also 23/1 that day and has never run that well before, so I'm treading a bit lightly -- it also came in a race where the top choice turned in a dud, so maybe a weird one all around?
Race Summary	Silver Is a Gift turned in a rare dull one last out, and I'm expecting that he'll bounce back with something better today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#7 HIGH WATER MARK (9-5)	Good tune-up for this in first start as a gelding, lands in soft spot.
#1 JR SERGIO (12-1)	Beat half the field in improved try in fast-paced 7F sprint at this level.
#3 NEW PLEX (7-2)	Big threat if his improved form on turf carries over to the dirt.
Race Summary	HIGH WATER MARK, unhurried early off a four-month layoff at 7f, drifted in and drifted out before he finished third behind the winning favorite. He gets class relief and has a pair of route races at Saratoga to summon. Bet to win and place and play 7-1 and 7-3 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#5 CROSSATI (6-1)	Can stalk and pounce on projected hot pace, worked 5F bullet for return.
#3 LUCKY FLAY (3-1)	Stalked wide, earned top speed figure in field when third, zipped :47-1/5 Jan. 5.
#10 MS KENDRICK B (4-1)	Will be running late, must avoid wide trip on cutback in distance.
Race Summary	A lively pace should develop – and class-dropping CROSSATI could be there to pick up the winning pieces. She tired chasing a fast pace in a MSW sprint at Monmouth won by Strong Like Sara, who jumped right into stakes company. Bet to win and place and play a 3-5-10 exacta box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#7 MURUMBI (5-2)	Consistent, improving, proven router, projects an ideal trip in here.
#1 CLOUD STORAGE (3-1)	Upstaged recent in-the-money finishes with game win at this distance.
#6 SIMMERING (7-2)	Big number in defeat but last win was in 4-horse field 15 months ago.
Race Summary	MURUMBI rallied for three wins and four seconds in her last 10 starts with ascending speed figures. She steps up off the claim but has plenty of route experience and gets ample pace flow to rally into. Bet to win and place and play a 7/1, 6/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 3	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 3-5)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 51 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 5:46P
(INCLUDES UP TO $1,400 LTBASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. AT FIRST LIGHT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PERFECT DEAL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AT FIRST LIGHT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the high est average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	PERFECT DEAL	7/2	5/2
1	AT FIRST LIGHT	15/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	AT FIRST LIGHT	1	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	63.6	13.0	3.5
6	DEAL BREAKING DAME	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	47.0	36.7	32.2
8	FULLY BLESSED	8	5/2	Trailer	0	0	38.9	49.3	44.8
4	PERFECT DEAL	4	7/2	Trailer	52	41	23.4	39.0	33.0
2	MO SISTER	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	1.9	23.7	15.7
3	REAL SILK	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	41.2	12.4	0.4
5	ACADIANA	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	33.2	21.8	12.8

Unknown Running Style: BAYOU CHICK (6/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jose Luis - Trainer: Breaux Samuel], WON BRIGHT LIGHT (9/2) [Jockey: Rengifo Johan - Trainer: Brinkman Brett A].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 2	$1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $17,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 68 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 12:52
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. HAPPY SUNDAY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HAPPY SUNDAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RANCHO VISTA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	HAPPY SUNDAY	3/1	2/1
4	RANCHO VISTA	2/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	RANCHO VISTA	4	2/1	Front-runner	62	60	78.0	43.4	38.4
1	CICATRIZ	1	6/1	Front-runner	0	0	56.7	46.6	39.6
5	HAPPY SUNDAY	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	62	54.6	53.3	50.8
6	PRINCESS CLAUDIA	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	16.1	41.7	34.7
2	DADDY'S QUEEN	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.2	32.2	23.7

Unknown Running Style: CANDY AND WINE (9/5) [Jockey: Ortiz Jr Irad - Trainer: Pletcher Todd A], DAWN'S MIST (15/1) [Jockey: Reyes Leonel - Trainer: Passley Mark].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#10 CAPTIVATING SOUND (ML=6/1)
#1 MYA C (ML=9/2)

CAPTIVATING SOUND - I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. Torres drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to think this horse has a darn good chance at this level. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should perform well today. MYA C - Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a nice race last out within the last month. Should do well in this race. Weight shift of -10 from December 24th race at Tampa Bay Downs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HEAVENS EXPRESS (ML=2/1), #5 CHANGE ORDER (ML=7/2), #8 HIGHLAND HOLIDAY (ML=5/1),

HEAVENS EXPRESS - Mediocre speed rating last out at Tampa Bay Downs at 7 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's race. The bang up job last time out may knock this mare off stride this time around. CHANGE ORDER - The finish position of eighth in the last race shows me that this horse may be getting out of condition. HIGHLAND HOLIDAY - Too far back in the beginning of the last route event will probably make it tough to make an impact today in this sprint event. Not easy to play this horse today. Make her show you something in a sprint contest before you wager on her in a race of 7 furlongs. Finished first in her most recent effort with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MYA C - A tried and true angle. Take a sprinter in the third and fourth start after a moderate layoff. That's the time when they peak.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 CAPTIVATING SOUND to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $80000 Class Rating: 86

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 THUNDER APPEAL 5/2
# 3 THEISMANN 10/1
# 6 HALFWAY JOKING 9/2

THUNDER APPEAL should be supported as the wager in here. Ought to be given consideration in this event if only for the very strong speed figure earned in the last race. Ward and Rodriguez have won 37 percent of their races giving this equine a very strong chance. Very solid profits over time for this jock and conditioner duo. THEISMANN - Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early speed battle which bodes well with this group. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this group. HALFWAY JOKING - Should go to the lead and could never look back. It's a good sign that Foster is using Cedillo on this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:40 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 12:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#1 DREAMINGOFFREEDOM (ML=5/1)
#6 DIXIE MUSIC (ML=6/1)

DREAMINGOFFREEDOM - This thoroughbred ran out of the money at Parx Racing last time out in the mud. She should improve in this event without the off-track conditions. DIXIE MUSIC - Last out, finished fifth in the mud at Parx Racing. Has to do better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FAUX PAS (ML=5/2), #2 NORHO'S GAMBLE (ML=3/1), #5 KEYSTORMRISING (ML=4/1),

FAUX PAS - You think this equine is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't win often. This favorite hasn't been to the track in awhile. No works since last race. Recent speed figure of 42 may not be legitimate since it was on a sloppy track. NORHO'S GAMBLE - Speed ratings of 42/32/10 are pointed on a downward course. You figure that this horse is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. KEYSTORMRISING - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when examining the most recent outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 DREAMINGOFFREEDOM to win if you can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-15-2025, 10:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11300 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NO WVB CLAUSE.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ICED MOCHA 9/5
# 8 LOVELY LUCY 9/2
# 9 FROSTY MAYA 6/1

I favor ICED MOCHA here. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this contest. Ran a strong last race. The average class rating of 53 makes this one hard to beat. LOVELY LUCY - Ought to be given a chance in this event if only for the strong speed figure garnered in the last competition. FROSTY MAYA - Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Ought to be carefully examined based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last race.

Wednesday 1/15/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 1/15/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment