Tuesday 1/21/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#1 Foxy's Country Hit	Mostly worried about her ability to find that little bit of late punch to avoid going flat in the final yards again, but I think she might settle into a pretty good spot while in range behind the quicker players early.
#3 Kelley Jean	Get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, but it wouldn't be a serious shock for a fresh face to land this race -- not a whole lot of imposing form to worry about on paper.
#6 Justworthashot	She doesn't seem totally overmatched on the rise based on the recent form, but she has always found this kind of level a bit tough in the past. She might get a decent trip here.
Race Summary	Foxy's Country Hit might end up with the right kind of trip to score today, but I'd also want to take a look at Kelley Jean before this one.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#8 Lofty Cowtown	She's a bit of a reach here, but her baseline form suggests she can bring something better today than she showed last out, and I think you can probably write off all three of her local starts -- two of them were routes, and the other was her last before going to the bench. Interesting excuses along the way?
#4 Flower Mound	She's probably going to be a handful in a spot without a ton of serious confirmed early burn, and she should be in a great spot while waiting to make her move from right up on the splits.
#1 Loaded Once More	She's not impossible here, but I think a few of them have higher ceilings that could leave her settling for an underneath share today.
Race Summary	Lofty Cowtown should be a decent number on the board, and I think her three local starts might not tell us as much about how she fits as they would seem to at first glance. Willing to take a shot.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#8 Cowgirls Humor	She has done almost all of her work going short, but she showed a little stretchout pace here last month that might keep her up on the engine today while getting back to a route trip.
#5 Dancehall Justice	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, as the form fits and she figures to get a good run right up top with the pick. Price probably gets a lot shorter today.
#2 Victoria Command	She stretched out nicely last time around to complete the exacta behind an easy winner, and she is another with enough positional pace to find a good spot in a race without too much speed.
Race Summary	Cowgirls Humor might be able to set the tempo from the outside, and I'm hoping the lack of any other confirmed early pace will help her stick around a bit today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $75,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 74 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 3:41P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $75,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $75,000 (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ANALOG JONES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HARRIGAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. REGALPAINS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or tu rf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GUN TRADER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	ANALOG JONES	5/1	9/2
2	HARRIGAN	3/1	6/1
4	REGALPAINS	9/2	8/1
3	GUN TRADER	12/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	QUILLING	7	8/1	Front-runner	72	65	61.7	61.7	52.7
5	ANALOG JONES	5	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	74	71	82.8	65.9	60.4
3	GUN TRADER	3	12/1	Stalker	72	68	65.6	62.7	54.7
1	ALCHEMISM	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	76	39.8	30.3	21.8
2	HARRIGAN	2	3/1	Trailer	65	79	74.9	74.9	68.9
6	LET'SMAKEITADOUBLE	6	8/1	Trailer	70	61	57.8	57.8	49.3
4	REGALPAINS	4	9/2	Trailer	69	69	56.7	65.8	53.3
8	TWENTY ONE KID	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	72	63.2	63.2	50.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 2-3) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 12:55
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 128 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MIGHTY EAGLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. L BAR D DARLYN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BONITA WAGON: Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. JINXX: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. DE CAP GUN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	MIGHTY EAGLE	6/1	5/1
4	L BAR D DARLYN	2/1	6/1
5	BONITA WAGON	5/1	8/1
9	JINXX	3/1	8/1
1	DE CAP GUN	20/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DE CAP GUN	1	20/1	Slow	73	67	7.8	0.0	0.0
2	CORAZON STOLI	2	15/1	Average	69	71	5.6	0.0	0.0
3	JESSES FLYS	3	20/1	Slow	69	68	7.3	0.0	0.0
4	L BAR D DARLYN	4	2/1	Average	78	70	5.0	0.0	0.0
5	BONITA WAGON	5	5/1	Slow	76	66	8.1	0.0	0.0
6	MS STOLIS DIVA	6	10/1	Slow	74	63	6.9	0.0	0.0
7	SHAKIN LUNA	7	20/1	Average	65	55	6.0	0.0	0.0
8	MIGHTY EAGLE	8	6/1	Slow	83	74	6.7	0.0	0.0
9	JINXX	9	3/1	Average	81	63	4.7	0.0	0.0
10	KELLIES WINNER	10	15/1	Slow	74	59	7.2	0.0	0.0
11	VS MR PILOTOS IMAGE	11	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	70	65	7.1	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 2:35pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,800 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 GIRL BYE (ML=15/1)
#10 CONSTITUTIONALIST (ML=5/2)
#7 GIN N SIN (ML=10/1)
#5 AWESOME SUNDAY (ML=6/1)


GIRL BYE - Looking at today's class rating, this racer is meeting an easier field than last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. CONSTITUTIONALIST - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +80. GIN N SIN - Meeks has this mare going in the perfect event. AWESOME SUNDAY - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Norris. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Ran last race out against a much better field at Mountaineer Park. The move down in class should suit her well. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Mountaineer Park, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 INNER HARBOR (ML=3/1), #6 J P'S GLADYS (ML=9/2), #11 VARTON (ML=8/1),

INNER HARBOR - No picnic to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint affair at 3/1 when she hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple of months. Don't think this racer will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. J P'S GLADYS - This horse likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't play in the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 GIRL BYE on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,7,10] with [5,7,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [5,7,10] with [5,7,10] with [5,7,10] Total Cost: $6

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 58

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 OOPS (GB) 3/1
# 8 LOOKOUT PASS 4/1
# 5 LUPITA 10/1

OOPS (GB) could be the bet in here. Her 52 average has this filly with among the strongest Speed Figures for this event. Must be considered - I like the figs from the last race. Has been racing very well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. LOOKOUT PASS - Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very good win percentage - 23 percent - at this distance & surface. LUPITA - Is a solid contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions. She has a good opportunity for this event as trainer, Silva, has strong win rate with horses going this distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BREAKOUT STAR 4/1
# 3 EPIC KNIGHT 7/2
# 4 SWEET TRAVELS 3/1

My selection for this race is BREAKOUT STAR. Overall the Equibase speed figs of this racer look formidable in this competition. Has performed admirably as of late in route races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed figure. Very solid jockey with trainer figures make this horse a strong selection. EPIC KNIGHT - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet here. Posted a strong Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. SWEET TRAVELS - Dacosta has a strong 21 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. With a quite good 74 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#1 THIRSTY PAPPY (ML=6/1)
#6 WINGED FOOT (ML=5/1)


THIRSTY PAPPY - When this rider and trainer join forces you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Dunn have been fantastic together. The Jan 13th event at Parx Racing was at a class level of (91). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so he should be in a good position. WINGED FOOT - Ran a lackluster race at Parx Racing last out. Racing on a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my list of contenders. Last ran at Parx Racing and finished fifth. Reviewing his past performance lines, I see he was close at the end, within 5 of the winner. A repeat of that latest effort on Dec 17th where he garnered a rating of 78 looks strong enough to score in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 WIZARD SERRAT (ML=4/1), #5 NOTABLE BOB (CHI) (ML=9/2), #9 WYNN GIANT (ML=5/1),

WIZARD SERRAT - This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. NOTABLE BOB (CHI) - This horse finished off the board on Dec 18th and wasn't near the winner last race out either. WYNN GIANT - Finished third in his most recent performance with a common speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 THIRSTY PAPPY on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip