11-11-11

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Friday, November 11, 2011
Big East Conference
South Florida 27, SYRACUSE 23

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (11/9) Game 115-116: South Florida at Syracuse (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 87.172; Syracuse 89.232
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 2; 49
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+4); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Ice picks: Friday's best NHL bets

Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils (+115, 5.5)

If there’s one thing that last season’s HBO 24/7 series taught us it’s that Bruce Boudreau isn’t afraid to let his team have it on occasion.

After a listless 5-2 loss to Dallas, Boudreau put his club through a nasty 90-minute practice filled with sprints and battle drills on Wednesday.

“As far as the skating, if we’re not going to work as hard as we anticipate or thought we should have the night before, we’ll work a little bit harder today,” Boudreau told reporters.

They had to know it was coming. Veteran forward Mike Knuble referred to his club as a bunch of “clowns” after the loss and that collapse is exactly what the team has vowed to avoid this season.

That means New Jersey is going to get an honest effort out of Washington as the two teams open a home-and-home set. Nobody likes the dreaded bag skate.

Pick: Capitals

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres (-200, 5.5)

Everyone’s been wondering what is going on with Ryan Miller lately, but Buffalo’s problems run a lot deeper than his struggles between the pipes.

After being benched for a consecutive starts, Miller gave up five more goals Monday when he was given another start, though Buffalo did bail him out with a 6-5 win in overtime. While he certainly wasn’t at his sharpest, Buffalo’s defense left him high and dry throughout the game.

"As a goaltender your job is to clean up mistakes," Miller told reporters. "I need to get myself in position to make a couple saves there. It does make it difficult when [opponents] get time and a look from in tight. They had a few of the goals from the slot. It's my job to try to work with that and [the defense's] job to start to figure out how to minimize those."

The good news is that there are no problems with Buffalo’s offense. The Sabres’ power play scored four times on Friday and should be able to capitalize on Ottawa’s shoddy penalty killing.

Pick: Over

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s betting tips: Weather may impact Carrier Classic

Weather to watch

As of Thursday night, there was a 50 percent chance of rain for Friday evening’s Carrier Classic which is being played outdoors on the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier between Michigan State and North Carolina in San Diego. If the rain does come, the game could be moved below deck, but organizers want to make this an outdoor affair if at all possible. Southeast winds are expected at 8 mph.

Who’s hot

NCAAF: South Florida is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games against Syracuse.

NCAAB: The under is 11-5 in Duke’s last 15.

NCAAB: UConn is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 overall.

NHL: Dallas has won four in a row.

NHL: The New York Rangers have won five straight games.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Syracuse is 1-4 against the spread in its last five.

NCAAB: Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread in its last five against North Carolina.

NCAAB: Vanderbilt is 0-4 against the spread in its last four home games.

NHL: Washington is just 4-12 in its last 16 games in New Jersey.

NHL: Ottawa has lost four consecutive games.

Key stat

67 – Tiger Woods shot a 5-under 67 Friday at the Australian Open to move atop the leaderboard in a tournament for the first time in almost a year. Woods had five birdies on the front nine and sits at 9-under for the tournament. Woods is a +150 tournament favorite.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins – Despite numerous rumors that Pittsburgh’s captain would return to the lineup Friday at home against the Dallas Stars, he has been ruled out for at least the weekend. Crosby practiced all week with the team but won’t play until at least Tuesday as he recovers from his concussion.

Game of the day

Michigan State at North Carolina (-10.5, N/A)

Notable quotable

"My guys haven't shot real well in the exhibitions. I told them to shoot the exact same way and the wind will blow it in." – Michigan State coach Tom Izzo

Notes and tips

George Mason senior guard Andre Cornelius has been suspended for the season's first 10 games for pleading guilty to misdemeanor credit card fraud. Cornelius, who had been suspended indefinitely, admitted he made a mistake and accepts the punishment. He will be eligible to play against Duquesne on Dec. 21. Cornelius averaged 9.5 points last season and is the team's second-leading returning scorer. George Mason hosts Rhode Island Friday night as an 11-point favorite.

Assistant Mike McQueary will not coach Penn State in Saturday's game against Nebraska. "Due to multiple threats made against Assistant Coach Mike McQueary, the University has decided it would be in the best interest of all for Assistant Coach McQueary not to be in attendance at Saturday's Nebraska game," the school announced in a brief statement Thursday. McQueary was tabbed to coach the game after the university fired legendary coach Joe Paterno on Wednesday amid allegations that former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky engaged in sexual activity with underage boys. McQueary, then a graduate assistant, was an eyewitness to one of the assaults in 2002 and relayed the information to Paterno, who in turn notified athletic director Tim Curley and school vice president and Gary Schultz. Penn State trustees had been concerned with McQueary’s safety throughout the day, calling for him to stay away from the field during the game. The university did not announce who would coach the 12th-ranked Nittany Lions, who are 3.5-point underdogs at home to Nebraska.

Despite saying he would play through additional pain to face his former teammates, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to be sidelined for a second straight game Sunday. Kolb has been dealing with foot and turf toe injuries that forced him to miss last week's overtime win over the St. Louis Rams. The Cardinals will visit the Philadelphia Eagles, who traded Kolb to Arizona for corner Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie in the offseason. John Skelton started Sunday's game and completed 20 of 35 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown as Arizona halted a six-game losing streak. Kolb has thrown for 1,706 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions this season.

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Friday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
South Florida vs. Syracuse UNDER 51.5

[Mr. IWS]

bookiemonsters

32-16 run

ncaab michigan st +11

[Mr. IWS]

Sharpsides Investing
free play

Tenn Tech +12

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NHL

Season: 61-60 (.504)

Washington vs. NEW JERSEY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
N.Y. RANGERS 3, Carolina 2
PITTSBURGH 3, Dallas 2
BUFFALO 4, Ottawa 2
DETROIT 3, Edmonton 2
CHICAGO 3, Calgary 2

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 6-1 (.857)
ATS: 3-4 (.429)
ATS Vary Units: 21-19 (.525)
Over/Under: 4-3 (.571)
Over/Under Vary Units: 9-4 (.692)

All-Military Classic
1st Round at Colorado Springs, CO
AIR FORCE 75, Army 54
Vmi 87, The Citadel 78

Basketball Travelers Invitational
Round Robin at San Diego, CA
SAN DIEGO STATE 86, Bryant 48
Southern Utah 79, UC Davis 77

Dale Howard Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
CREIGHTON 82, North Carolina A&T 61
IOWA 91, Chicago State 56

EA SPORTS Maui Invitational
Opening Round at campus sites
DUKE 79, Belmont 65
KANSAS 94, Towson 56
TENNESSEE 82, UNC Greensboro 64

Global Sports Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
MARSHALL 74, Alabama State 60

Global Sports Invitational
Round Robin at campus sites
Arkansas State vs. LAMAR: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
LOUISVILLE 86, Tennessee-Martin 55

Global Sports Shootout
Round Robin at campus sites
FLORIDA 83, Jackson State 48
OHIO STATE 76, Wright State 52

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Tipoff
at campus sites
KENTUCKY 84, Marist 44

San Francisco Hilltop Challenge
Round Robin at San Francisco, CA
Northern Arizona 71, Louisiana-Lafayette 67
SAN FRANCISCO 82, North Dakota State 71

Non-Conference
ALABAMA 73, North Florida 52
ARIZONA STATE 73, Montana State 57
ARKANSAS 77, USC Upstate 54
AUBURN 72, McNeese State 65
BAYLOR 74, Texas Southern 54
Bethune-Cookman 65, STETSON 64
BOSTON U. 67, Northeastern 60
BOWLING GREEN STATE 73, Howard 53
BUFFALO 61, Saint Peter's 59
CALIFORNIA 91, UC Irvine 73
CAMPBELL 75, Houston Baptist 65
CHARLOTTE 74, North Carolina Central 63
CLEMSON 76, Gardner-Webb 49
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 83, Holy Cross 64
COLORADO STATE 68, Montana 58
CONNECTICUT 85, Columbia 49
Delaware 69, RADFORD 58
DENVER 66, Portland State 60
DePAUL 85, Texas-Pan American 65
EASTERN MICHIGAN 62, Uic 61
Fairfield 67, Quinnipiac 60
FLORIDA STATE 74, Jacksonville 52
FRESNO STATE 67, Illinois State 58
GEORGE MASON 72, Rhode Island 59
GEORGE WASHINGTON 78, Umes 55
GEORGIA 69, Wofford 65
GEORGIA TECH 77, Florida A&M 52
GONZAGA 84, Eastern Washington 57
HOFSTRA 84, Long Island 78
ILLINOIS 76, Loyola (Chicago) 57
INDIANA 66, Stony Brook 55
INDIANA STATE 71, Eastern Illinois 48
KANSAS STATE 84, Charleston Southern 60
LA SALLE 85, Lafayette 75
MARQUETTE 83, Mount St. Mary's 50
MASSACHUSETTS 75, Elon 69
MIAMI (FLA.) 80, Tennessee Tech 64
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 67, Austin Peay 65
MINNESOTA 67, Bucknell 63
MISSOURI 86, Southeast Missouri State 61
Missouri State 72, NEVADA 68
Navy vs. LONGWOOD: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NC STATE 74, UNC Asheville 68
NEBRASKA 85, South Dakota 64
North Carolina 75, Michigan State 68
OKLAHOMA 80, Idaho State 59
OKLAHOMA STATE 77, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 55
OLE MISS 82, Ulm 53
Penn 74, UMBC 64
PITTSBURGH 75, Albany 46
PURDUE 83, Northern Illinois 52
RICHMOND 74, American 50
Rider 73, ROBERT MORRIS 70
RUTGERS 79, Dartmouth 50
Sacred Heart vs. Hartford: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Saint Joseph's vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SAINT LOUIS 70, Tennessee State 54
SOUTH CAROLINA 73, Western Carolina 67
ST. BONAVENTURE 73, Cornell 69
STANFORD 82, Central Arkansas 58
TCU 71, Florida Gulf Coast 61
TEXAS TECH 88, Troy 69
TULANE 72, Alabama A&M 56
TULSA 74, Ualr 61
UCLA 82, Loyola Marymount 61
USC 72, Cal State Northridge 56
UTAH STATE 72, Byu 71
UTEP 74, UT San Antonio 62
Valparaiso 80, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 62
VANDERBILT 77, Oregon 69
VCU 83, Saint Francis (Pa.) 55
VILLANOVA 77, Monmouth 52
WAKE FOREST 71, Loyola (Md.) 70
WEST VIRGINIA 80, Oral Roberts 63
XAVIER 77, Morgan State 52
Yale 68, Central Connecticut State 67

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA CBB NEWS AND NOTES
North Carolina vs. Michigan State

North Carolina Tar Heels at Michigan State Spartans (-10.5, N/A)

THE STORY: In a game dubbed the “Carrier Classic,” top-ranked North Carolina will square off against Michigan State outdoors on an aircraft carrier docked in the Naval Harbor in San Diego. President Obama is scheduled to attend the game, along with many active duty military in a celebration of Veteran’s Day. Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller lead a loaded Tar Heels team that is expected to compete for both the ACC crown and national championship. Michigan State lost three key players from a disappointing 2010-11 team that was ousted in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but the Spartans are still picked by the coaches to finish third in the Big Ten.

North Carolina is 10-3 all-time against Michigan State and has won five straight meetings.

ODDS: Las Vegas Sports Consultants expected North Carolina to be set at -9 or -9.5, but most books sent out North Carolina -10.5 late Thursday evening. Meanwhile, setting the total seems to be more of a concern for the books.

"Offense could be a problem for both teams," John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn, told Covers.com Thursday evening. "Shooters usually have a difficult time when their backgrounds are changed - it doesn't matter if we're talking about an NFL stadium or an aircraft carrier."

WEATHER: The forecast for San Diego is calling for temperatures in the mid 60s with a humidity index of 50 percent. There will be a slight breeze, blowing south at 8 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain during the day with a 70 percent chance of showers later in the evening.

"I think it's going to be a memory-making experience in a lot of ways," MSU head coach Tom Izzo told the Detroit Free Press. "I don't know what's going to happen when we get there. I don't know about the wind. I don't know about rain. I don't know about anything. I don't really care, to be honest with you. I just want to play the game, and hopefully it's as good an event as it can be because of our military, because of the reason the game is being played.

"The game itself is more for us. But the reason is more for them."

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (2010: 29-8, 14-2 ACC, 16-17-1 ATS): Roy Williams has won two national titles in his eight years at North Carolina, but many are calling this his most talented roster yet. Barnes — who surprised many by not entering the NBA Draft after a stellar freshman campaign — is a preseason All-American, and Zeller is one of the country’s most polished big men. Lanky power forward John Henson was the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year, and sophomore Kendall Marshall is Williams’ ideal point guard — fast with the ball and possessing excellent court vision.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (2010: 19-15, 9-9 Big Ten, 11-21-1 ATS): Senior forwards Draymond Green and Delvin Roe headline a talented and experienced frontcourt for the Spartans, who had one of their worst seasons in recent memory in 2010-11. But questions remain in the backcourt, where Michigan State lost do-everything point guard Kalin Lucas. Sophomore Keith Appling is a combo guard that could provide scoring, while newcomers Travis Trice and Brandon Wood — a transfer from Valparaiso — will audition for the point.

TIP-INS:

1. San Diego weather is normally perfect, but the forecast does call for some rain over the weekend.

2. North Carolina has won 76 of its last 81 season-openers, including six in a row.

3. The teams will also wear special camouflage uniforms to honor the troops.

TRENDS:

• Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Spartans are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
• Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday's Best NCAA CBB Bets

Wofford Terriers at Georgia Bulldogs (-10.5, N/A)

This is a much different Georgia team than the one that finished 21-12 last year and made the NCAA tournament. The entire starting frontcourt is gone. Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie left for the NBA, and underrated center Jeremy Price graduated.

The starting backcourt of Dustin Ware and Gerald Henderson is back, and five-star recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -- a shooting guard who averaged more than 30 points a game as a high school senior – will be fun to watch.

Fortunately for the Bulldogs, they open against a Terriers squad that’s even less experienced. Wofford must replace four of five starters from last year’s Southern Conference championship team. Gone is SoCon Tournament MVP Noah Dahlman, who averaged 20.1 points and 5.6 rebounds.

The lone returning starter, Brad Loesing, averaged 6.2 points.

Coaches picked Wofford to finish fifth in the conference.

PICK: Georgia


BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (-2, N/A)

Jimmer Fredette is no longer at BYU, but the Cougars return three starters from last season’s 32-5 team: Brandon Davies (11.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Noah Hartsock (8.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Charles Abouo (7.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg).

BYU has joined the West Coast Conference and is picked to finish third behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's.

In last year’s matchup with the Aggies, BYU won 78-72 at home behind Fredette’s 26 points.

Utah State is transitioning from a halfcourt offense built around post player Tai Wesley to an up-tempo game.

“The way we’re going to win is by getting defensive stops and being able to get out and run,” senior point guard Brockeith Pane told the Salt Lake Tribune. “A lot of guys on this team are pretty athletic. We have a lot of guys that can score on the perimeter.

The Aggies are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

PICK: Utah State

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA CFB NEWS AND NOTES
South Florida at Syracuse: What Bettors Need To Know

South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 51.5)

THE STORY: One team will end a frustrating few weeks when South Florida visits Syracuse for a Big East battle Friday night. Syracuse was riding high after beating West Virginia Oct. 21, but has dropped games at Louisville and UConn since and still needs a win to become bowl eligible.

South Florida won its first four games before losing the last four - the longest slide in the program’s 15-year history. The Bulls were beaten by three points in each of the last two games -- blowing a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead in a 20-17 overtime loss at Rutgers Saturday. South Florida has been outscored 70-42 in the fourth quarter and overtime. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and USF is 1-3 on the road.

TV: ESPN2

LINE MOVES: South Florida opened as a 4-point road favorite but has been bet down to 3.5. The total opened at 51.5 and has remained steady.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (4-4, 0-4 Big East, 3-5 ATS): Bulls quarterback B.J. Daniels has thrown for 2,027 yards and 12 touchdowns, and rushed for 440 yards and four TDs. But four of his five interceptions have come in the last three games. Darrell Scott rushed for 100 yards for the first time in five games at Rutgers, but was held out of practice with injuries early this week and is day to day. Linebacker DeDe Lattimore has become a major factor with 40 tackles and 3.5 sacks the last four games.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (5-4, 1-3 Big East, 3-6 ATS): The Orange are ranked 99th in the nation in rushing offense. Leading rusher Antwon Bailey has totaled 120 yards in his last two games after four straight 100-yard performances. Quarterback Ryan Nassib has 18 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Wide receiver Alec Lemon had a career-high 157 yards last week and has a team-leading 47 receptions. Safety Phillip Thomas has six interceptions, which leads the Big East and is tied for second in the nation.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Syracuse won last season in Tampa, but USF won the first five in the series – three at the Carrier Dome.

2. USF leads the nation in tackles for losses per game with nine and is second in sacks (3.5).

3. Syracuse’s Nick Provo has set a single-season school record for receptions for a tight end (39).

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.

PREDICTION: Syracuse 28, USF 24 – The Bulls have been finding ways to lose and the Orange will be pumped up to seal a Bowl bid at home.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best NCAA CFB Bets

South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 51.5)

The Syracuse Orange will play host to the South Florida Bulls on ESPN’s Friday night football betting action this week, as both teams try to take a crucial step towards bowl eligibility.

The Bulls got off to such a promising start to the season when they went on the road and took care of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish without really much in the way of hassle. In fact, they started off at a solid 4-0 and looked ready to challenge for the team’s first BCS bowl bid in team history. Instead, disaster struck in the form of a primetime defeat, a 44-17 romp at the hands of the Pitt Panthers at the end of September, and it has been all downhill from there. The team has lost four games in a row, though the last three have come by a combined 12 points. The good news is that this is the last road game of the year, though the season wraps up with games against Miami, Louisville, and West Virginia, and the Bulls would love to only have to win one of those games to qualify for a bowl bid. When you look at the numbers for this team, you don’t think of one that is 4-4. USF is averaging 470.6 yards per game and 32.5 points per game, and it is conceding 345.8 points per game and has held six of its eight foes to 24 points or fewer. That being said, a lot of the stats were racked up against a non-conference schedule that included Ball State, UTEP, and Florida A&M, so we have to be tempered.

We’re just about ready to put the Orange in the Pinstripe Bowl for the second straight year. At 1-3 in conference, it would take winning out and getting a lot of help to challenge for a BCS bowl bid, and it will only take one more victory to ensure a trip to a bowl game. In all likelihood, there are a number of other teams from this conference that will end up taking bowl bids ahead of the ‘Cuse, but if the Pinstripe Bowl has its chance to take the hometown team, you know that’s the route that it is going to go. Then again, we have to remember that after this game, there are only two games left, one against Cincinnati, and one against Pittsburgh, neither of which Syracuse will be favored in. This isn’t a particularly pretty team, as QB Ryan Nassib doesn’t run the smoothest offense in the world. He is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,960 yards with 18 TDs against three picks. The ground game is dominated by RB Antwon Bailey, who has 177 carries for 798 yards and six trips to the end zone.

South Florida Bulls @ Syracuse Orange Pick: We aren’t so sure why the Bulls are favored in this game. They just don’t really have the feel of the better team in this one, and they definitely haven’t played well on the road since getting romped by the Panthers. Don’t be shocked if the hosts gain bowl eligibility and put all doubts to rest on Friday night.

PICK: Syracuse +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Virginia Tech Thursday.

Friday: South Florida. Deficit: 3234 sirignanos.