Tuesday 1/28/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#5 Capture Mi	He has a bit of speed in a race without a lot of other serious pace, and he should be able to get a pretty decent jump on some of the later threats.
#1 Fierce Assault	Honest finisher has been landing underneath shares, and he has a couple of lines on his page that suggest he could be a touch more tactical and keep tabs on the choice.
#7 Beuhler's Day Off	He was a good fit with similar on the drop last time out, but I worry about the way he tends to give away ground late in his races. Would want a better number than last time.
Race Summary	Capture Mi steps up a level in some decent form, and he should be quick enough to be right up on the pace throughout today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#5 P J's Boy	Not totally convinced that he's ready to fire a big one, but I'm not sure he's going to have to. There isn't any real depth in this one, so I'll start my work by taking a look at this fresh face.
#6 Vernon's Best	He's not meeting much on paper today, but he has already has his share of chances and tends to come up short late. Think he has a real chance to scoot clear of these off the turn and go on unbothered from there.
#4 Indy's Hope	He's reliable enough to think he's in the picture again today, but he's vulnerable to settling underneath behind someone who gets the jump on him.
Race Summary	P J's Boy doesn't bring a particularly interesting worktab with him to this one, but there just aren't a lot of good options at what might be short kinds of prices on the two likely chalks.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#8 Hidden Heart	Not sure the price is going to be all that appealing, but he should get a perfect attacking trip from the outside while prompting anyone else who wants to flash a little speed. Think he's going to roll these.
#4 Weekend Retreat	Pretty top-heavy race between these two, but he's going to give the top choice a jump and have to run him down late. One of the ones.
#3 Who Can't Wait	Wouldn't mind having a reach ticket with him on it, as he has a little bit of deceptive tactical speed that might keep him in an OK spot early on with today's race shape. Might plug on for a piece?
Race Summary	Hidden Heart can be tough while forcing the issue the whole way from the outside, and there are only a couple forward players for him to worry about into the turn. Strong 'A' to close the day with Who Can't Wait as a swing backup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#5 JAMIES INHERITANCE (3-1)	Can sustain rally with plenty of speed up ahead, good value play.
#2 VALENTINA DAY (9-5)	Gets needed class relief, worked in :46-2/5 recently, must use on all tickets.
#3 SPITTEN KITTEN (2-1)	Has seven wire-to-wire wins in her last 11 starts, mostly sprints.
Race Summary	JAMIES INHERITANCE was 0-for-8 last year, but she is proven on conventional dirt, should benefit from her return trip at Turf Paradise and projects an ideal trip in a speed-laden short field. Bet to win and place and play a 50-cent Pick 3 with numbers 2, 5/1, 4/ 1, 7.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#4 SLEW O’MISCHIEF (5-1)	Idle five months since solid debut, tuned up with 1:02-3/5 gate work.
#1 SAND PAYNTER (6-1)	Long series of works over strip indicate readiness for his first start.
#6 FREEDOM EMPRIE (5-2)	Dueled with winner, hung late, steps up in class for third go-round.
Race Summary	SLEW O’MISCHIEF dueled on the outside through solid fractions and gave way to the deep closers in his MSW debut in September at Emerald Downs. He is working steadily since then, gets Lasix, and gets the nod for a win and place bet. Also play a 1,4/1,4,6/ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#1 TIA SUZI (15-1)	Price shot off latest try at this distance, but she won’t race with Lasix today.
#7 CALIFORNIA DIVA (9-5)	Out-kicked by 26-1 winner, should be heard from late on class drop.
#3 CY’S SILKSTOCKING (8-	Ran 1-2-3 in her last three starts at the $6,250 claiming level.
Race Summary	Nothing wrong with TIA SUZI at 15-1 on the morning line. She raced 4-wide most of the way, launched a bid at the leaders nearing the stretch and finished willingly but out of the money in an 11-horse field. She moves from post 10 to the rail and could be prominent throughout. Bet to win and place and play 1-3, 1-7 and 7-1 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5)/ Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 59 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 12:32
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WICKLOW POOKA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GINGERSAYSCHILL : Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. KASHMIR WITCH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JOYFUL JOYCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CA ROUSEL QUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	WICKLOW POOKA	9/2	4/1
3	GINGERSAYSCHILL	4/1	6/1
13	KASHMIR WITCH	12/1	9/1
7	JOYFUL JOYCE	8/1	10/1
10	CAROUSEL QUEEN	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	SHE'S JUSTIFIED	8	8/1	Front-runner	65	35	67.3	29.8	11.8
4	WICKLOW POOKA	4	9/2	Front-runner	62	64	60.1	57.2	51.7
13	KASHMIR WITCH	13	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	64.5	53.1	44.6
14	UP N RUNNIN	14	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	54.3	31.2	18.2
3	GINGERSAYSCHILL	3	4/1	Trailer	62	60	42.7	56.9	48.9
7	JOYFUL JOYCE	7	8/1	Trailer	72	51	32.2	42.8	35.8
2	QUEEN KHALEESI	2	6/1	Trailer	65	35	20.7	35.6	22.6
10	CAROUSEL QUEEN	10	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	55	44.2	44.4	36.4
12	ADDIEADDIEBOBADDIE	12	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	45.5	30.3	16.3
6	WEST SIDE DIVA	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.7	7.6	0.0
11	MISS RAUCUS	11	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	35.3	25.5	8.0
9	LAUGH LIKE LUCY	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: BUTTER BEE QUICK (5/1) [Jockey: Conner Tyler - Trainer: McClellan Erin C], GRUENE HALL (10/1) [Jockey: Otero Aarom - Trainer: Guerrero Juan Carlos].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 3	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 3-5)
Maiden Special • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $43,000 • Post: 1:51P
(INCLUDES UP TO $1,400 LTBASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. REMEMBERIN RONALD is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * LITTLEBITOFAQUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DOUBLE CUTE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHOW RESPECT: Today is a sprin t, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	LITTLEBITOFAQUEEN	3/1	9/2
4	DOUBLE CUTE	5/1	9/2
1	SHOW RESPECT	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DOUBLE CUTE	4	5/1	Front-runner	64	57	49.7	49.0	44.5
2	E R'S MIREYA	2	10/1	Front-runner	46	41	44.6	38.0	26.0
1	SHOW RESPECT	1	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	68	57	30.3	35.6	29.6
7	LAINESONDUTY	7	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	57.8	37.9	29.4
5	LITTLEBITOFAQUEEN	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	56	34.6	50.2	46.7
3	REMEMBERIN RONALD	3	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	59	54	25.5	41.8	34.3
6	DAY STORM	6	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	44	40.9	29.2	15.2
8	EASTON'S MOON	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	9.5	30.3	18.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 91

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JANUARY 23, 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MAJESTIC WAYS 9/2
# 7 ROYA 5/2
# 4 PERFECT WISH 6/1

MAJESTIC WAYS is my choice. Trainer boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface. Highly ranked earnings per start at the distance/surface in this bunch. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses in this race - worth a look. ROYA - She must be considered given the decent speed figures. Recently Gonzalez has provided wagerers with a quite good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. PERFECT WISH - She has a very good distance/surface win record - 1 for 6. This mare has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,100 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#5 HALF BIRTHDAY (ML=8/1)
#3 RENO TOUCH (ML=7/2)


HALF BIRTHDAY - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +24. RENO TOUCH - When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Aviles and Rone have been wonderful together. This mount earns a lot of money per race. I believe she can augment the lifetime total right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 FOREVER UNCAPTURED (ML=8/5), #1 TIZ INDEPENDENCE (ML=9/2), #4 TESHIMA (ML=6/1),

FOREVER UNCAPTURED - This favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning drills. TIZ INDEPENDENCE - The fourth place finish in the last event was not that great. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance affairs of late. Not probable to see her doing it this time either. TESHIMA - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not placing a wager on this horse off of that trend. Difficult to take this horse at the odds after the finish position (eighth) in the last race. When checking today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 HALF BIRTHDAY to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:27pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#7 PAID IN FULL (ML=8/1)
#4 FORT NECESSITY (ML=3/1)
#6 FRIDAYNIGHTSOLDIER (ML=4/1)


PAID IN FULL - Trainer Brown gave this gelding a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter trip and should increase his chances. Recent speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. FORT NECESSITY - Thompson brings him right back. I propose you stick with this live gelding. FRIDAYNIGHTSOLDIER - Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +999. This rider/trainer duo has done well together over the last 12 months. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Asencio rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. On December 30th this gelding shipped in to win and looks good right back. I am keen on that latest race on December 30th at Turf Paradise where he ended up first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LUCKY SMILE (ML=5/2), #5 MISTER BEAMS (ML=7/2),

LUCKY SMILE - This morning-line favorite may be out of form without any recent works. MISTER BEAMS - Doubtful that the speed rating he garnered on December 31st will hold up in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FRIDAYNIGHTSOLDIER - His strong final fraction in his last race on December 30th positions him well with these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 PAID IN FULL to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 28. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 ROTARY DIAL 4/1
# 8 OUTKISSED 2/1
# 6 MONTEREY PENINSULA 5/1

ROTARY DIAL is the most favorable bet in this race. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently. Has been travelling quite well and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. Might go off at a solid price and has some positives going for him. OUTKISSED - Has been running very well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Looks quite good to be close to the lead at the first call. MONTEREY PENINSULA - Has to be carefully examined in here if only for the solid speed rating posted in the last contest. Poole and Bracho have a strong win percentage together.