Tuesday 2/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#7 Dude the Legend	His only route try wasn't much, but he showed some signs of life last out that at least offer some hope for improvement while stretching out again into what might be a fair setup.
#6 Hidden Heart	He's one of a few potential stretchout players, but he might get the right trip while ending up with an outside spying trip to get first jump/inherit the lead when the others start to backpedal.
#3 Indy's Hope	He has some pretty reliable sprint finishing form, but I'm not totally sold he's going to transfer that around two turns as well as the price may suggest. In the mix.
Race Summary	Dude the Legend finished with a bit of enthusiasm last time out, and I'm hoping some of the quicker stretchout players will set the table for him to launch a late rally.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#8 Atlantic Firestorm	He came back with a couple nice efforts off the lengthy layoff, and he has done some pretty good work over the local footing in the past. Let's see if he can take another step forward in the third start back. Good setup from a bit off the pace?
#2 Inside Stunt	He really never runs a bad one and was just competitive with similar last time out while rising from starter company. Wouldn't argue with anyone landing here.
#4 It's Official	He seems like a pretty obvious player in here with some upside in the second start off the layoff after failing to sustain a move to the lead in the comeback try.
Race Summary	Atlantic Firestorm and It's Official are the two most appealing for me, and Inside Stunt is a must-use in the multi-race plays.

Mahoning Valley - Race #9

#3 Drill City	He's still lightly raced, so I'm not too worried about him taking a step back, and that is probably what it would take for someone to beat him today. Race goes through him.
#8 Earl's Stormy Wind	Turnback player has some finishing appeal in a race with a few potential forward players, and his better stuff seems in line with what it might take to land this.
#2 Bobby Rob	He woke up to land the upset in that last one, and maybe another step in the right direction would keep him in the frame for a piece of this at a midrange price.
Race Summary	Drill City was flattered when today's rail runner came back for an easy graduation, and I think his ceiling is just a bit higher than the rest of these right now.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#7 JAKE BRAKE ALLEY (5-1)	Led clear at 7F, hard-ridden to rally wide at 5-1/2, good value play.
#5 HEY BROTHER (5-2)	Well-traveled 5yo drops off claim for Parx debut, one to beat on best.
#6 AARAJ (7-2)	Unhurried to turn, altered course in mid-stretch, upstaged series of seconds.
Race Summary	JAKE BRAKE ALLEY, claimed five times in his last six starts, blew clear leads twice at 7F recently and rallied 3- to 5-wide to miss in a blanket finish at 5-1/2F in between those long sprints. He gets in light-weighted and is best suited at a distance which he stands 7/2-2-1. Bet to win and place and play 7-5 and 7-6 exactas.

Parx - Race #2

#5 CHARM OF THE SONG (7-2)	Has speed, back-pedaled in latest, looks like all-or-nothing type.
#6 STREETS OF PARIS (2-1)	Early trouble in last three starts out of town, starts fresh for new barn.
#3 BELLA ESTRELA (4-1)	Put to strong drive on turn, finished distant second after terrible start.
Race Summary	CHARM OF THE SONG flopped on the class rise as the 3-to-5 favorite off the claim. But she can’t be ignored with speed for solid connections. Can’t find anything else to like in this field, so give her one more chance to make amends at an inflated price. Bet to win and place and play 5-3 and 5-6 exactas.

Parx - Race #4

#1 KHOZY COLBY (4-1)	Speed and the rail, proven at $7,500 level, 3-10 at today’s distance.
#5 OLD HEAD (3-1)	Three-race winning steak ended on the class rise, can join $200k Club.
#3 DESIGNATED (7-2)	Three wins in her last five 6F starts at Parx, starts fresh.
Race Summary	KHOZY COLBY out-dueled the favorite through fast fractions and held off a deep closer to win at 6-1/2F two starts back, then she prompted the pace 3-wide from post 9 and gave way in a follow-up 6F sprint. She can maximize her speed from the rail in this field and is worth a win and place bet.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 7	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 7-8-9)
Starter Allowance $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $17,600 • Post: 3:03P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SOUPER FORTUNE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SMASH: Horse has run a Good Ra ce within the last 30 days. SAILOR'S CHANCE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PEPPER PIKE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. REAL NAUGHTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	SOUPER FORTUNE	5/1	6/1
10	SMASH	6/1	6/1
9	SAILOR'S CHANCE	20/1	7/1
1	PEPPER PIKE	4/1	8/1
2	REAL NAUGHTY	5/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	SMASH	10	6/1	Front-runner	86	86	94.4	80.8	74.3
2	REAL NAUGHTY	2	5/2	Front-runner	95	92	93.2	62.5	60.0
5	OILER	5	8/1	Front-runner	88	77	79.4	72.6	58.6
3	NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO	3	15/1	Front-runner	87	83	65.3	56.8	44.3
8	SOUPER FORTUNE	8	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	94	84	79.6	83.4	74.4
7	ATTA BOY ANTHONY	7	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	85	76.2	75.4	66.4
4	WASHINGTON'S UNION	4	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	81	59.8	70.8	58.3
6	WINNING DRIVE	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	77	60.6	77.4	62.9
9	SAILOR'S CHANCE	9	20/1	Trailer	86	85	63.4	79.8	68.8
1	PEPPER PIKE	1	4/1	Trailer	88	85	61.8	79.0	64.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 TAKE TIME TO DREAM 5/2
# 2 MISS M M 3/1
# 1 FROSTED DIAMOND 2/1

I think about TAKE TIME TO DREAM here. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last race. Is a sharp contender based on figs put up recently under today's conditions. Has been racing strongly in races of this distance, going 2 for 11 under similar conditions. MISS M M - Overall the speed figures of this horse look competitive in this contest. Ought to be given a shot based on the quite good Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last affair. FROSTED DIAMOND - Is difficult not to examine based on speed figs which have been competitive - 65 avg - of late. Looks respectable for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races lately.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:46pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#6 OVERLY FAST (ML=5/1)
#9 WINTER FALCON (ML=4/1)
#5 CREATIVE BID (ML=6/1)


OVERLY FAST - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Silva. I like when a race sets up this way. This gelding has the lone pace to demolish this field. This animal could be tough in today's contest, especially since Rodriguez rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Just see his most recent speed fig, 94. That one fits in this bunch. WINTER FALCON - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is up against an easier group than last time around the track at Turf Paradise. CREATIVE BID - The morning line odds on this horse are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Evans. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. The rider and handler combination have a beneficial ROI when they join forces. The January 25th event at Turf Paradise was at a class level of (98). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so he should be in a good spot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LANSDOWNE (GB) (ML=3/1), #1 DOS VICIOS (ML=5/1), #8 HERECOMEGEORGIEBOY (ML=6/1),

LANSDOWNE (GB) - Looked good on January 23rd, finishing third, but no drills since is a bit troublesome. Run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track at Turf Paradise at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. DOS VICIOS - Will be hard for this animal to beat this bunch off of that last rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. HERECOMEGEORGIEBOY - Difficult to take this steed at the odds after the result (eighth) in the last event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 OVERLY FAST on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,6,9] with [5,6,9] with [4,5,6,8,9] with [4,5,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 73

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 11. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500 RED).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SERENDIPITOUS 5/2
# 3 GAPPER 12/1
# 6 CONDEMNATION 8/1

I think SERENDIPITOUS is a respectable choice. His 63 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figs here. Win percentage one of the best in this field. Had one of the strongest Equibase speed figs of this field in his last affair. GAPPER - He has very good class ratings, averaging 80, and has to be given a shot in this event. Has ran solidly in dirt sprint races. CONDEMNATION - Has very good front speed and will probably fare strongly against this field. Morales and Salazarbecerra have a very good win percentage together.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 8-9)
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 107 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 4:14P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 11 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. COASTAL JAZZ is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COASTAL JAZZ: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. PRAYER OF JABEZ: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PLANE TALK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	COASTAL JAZZ	2/1	7/2
1	PRAYER OF JABEZ	5/1	7/1
7	PLANE TALK	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	COASTAL JAZZ	2	2/1	Front-runner	105	103	104.2	100.4	94.4
7	PLANE TALK	7	7/2	Front-runner	101	96	95.2	90.8	83.3
9	BRIDLEUPTOTHEBAR	9	8/1	Front-runner	103	102	87.4	79.2	66.7
1	PRAYER OF JABEZ	1	5/1	Front-runner	106	94	80.6	93.6	86.6
3	RUN RUDOLF	3	6/1	Stalker	97	101	74.5	85.2	74.7
5	DIAMOND RIM	5	6/1	Trailer	100	98	80.8	97.4	91.4
6	PERFECT DUDE	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	99	96	91.6	83.0	74.0
8	POVERTY BAY	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	89	84.0	84.6	72.1
4	YOU KIDDING ME	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	84	32.2	66.8	49.3

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 HEY BROTHER (ML=3/1)


HEY BROTHER - Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the ability to make his presence felt. That 76 fig this gelding notched in his last race tells me he's a chief player this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AARAJ (ML=7/2), #4 TRACK OF MY TEARS (ML=4/1), #2 BOBBY'S CANDY (ML=5/1),

AARAJ - 77/72/59, are the decreasing Equibase speed figures for this entrant. TRACK OF MY TEARS - Doubtful that the rating he registered on Jan 8th will hold up in this clash. BOBBY'S CANDY - Difficult to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Don't think this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last fig was mediocre when compared with today's class rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HEY BROTHER - Selectors may say this animal cannot control the pace. While this may be true, he is the sole solid stalker in this group. Won't be too far back when it counts - At the finish.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 HEY BROTHER is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
2	2	THE DRAGON REBORN	7/2	Davis, Allan - 15	462.98
3	3	STAY COOL HANOVER	9/2	Callahan, Corey - 17	435.49
1	1	CHESTERMAN	12/1	Teague, Montrell - 14	430.38
4	4	BORIS BADENOV	5/2	Wolfenden, Ross - 7	420.95
7	7	CHECK ON ME	6/1	Green, Jason - 6	418.95
6	6	STARLIT ROCKSTAR	12/1	Thompson, Jason - 6	418.77
5	5	BETTOR STAY HUNGRY	10/1	Porter, Trae - 10	414.87
9	9	EMINENTLY HANOVER	15/1	Lynch, A Toby Jr - 7	408.65
8	8	ALIEN POWER	8/1	Beyer, Troy - 10	392.30

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
2	2	COVENTRY HALL	7/2	Devaux, Jim - 13	545.08
5	5	URBAN KEMP	10/1	Byron, Aaron - 15	503.76
1	1	OCEANVIEW MASSEY	9/2	Derue, Jordan - 13	502.15
3	3	DUCKDODGENDIVE	4/1	Beckwith, Brett - 24	498.17
4	4	WOODSIDE GABE	3/1	Bailey, Leon - 8	469.09
6	6	PAY ME TO KNIGHT	5/1	Maura, Douglas - 16	454.57
8	8	CHERRY MASON	30/1	Randall, Jay - 12	410.19
7	7	IN A TINY WAY	20/1	Dobson, Billy - 13	404.72

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Post: 1:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$5700 - NW $600 PS L5 OR PS IN 2024 AE: NW 7 PM LT $6900 PC LS AE:$10000 CLM W/A G MERTON 1 OVER 4 M MERTON 2 OVER 5

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 ROCKINBILLY'SDREAM 8/5
# 2 VENENO 3/1
# 3 SWEET N FAST N 9/2

Look no further than ROCKINBILLY'SDREAM as the wager for this one. Many handicappers know speed is is such an important factor. This fine animal has credentials with a 84 avg ranking. Has a strong shot in here, if he can repeat his back class. Could dominate this bunch, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 93 - from his last effort. VENENO - The trainer Koch has a way with this gelding, regularly cashing in their competitions. May be the most compelling in the group of horses here, showing really strong numbers of late. Average speed is a solid 79. SWEET N FAST N - Horoscope said take a chance today, this harness racer is as good as any to take a shot with.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 9:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$19000 - NW $15,531 IN LAST 5 STARTS. AE: WINNERS IN LAST START OF THE BASE CLASS NW $10,000 L5 AE: 3-6 YO NW 8 P-M RACES LT

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 OPTICAL ILLUSION N 3/1
# 2 SURFSIDE BEACH 7/2
# 3 LOU'S SWEETREVENGE 8/1

OPTICAL ILLUSION N will not be denied the triumph in this contest. Positive instinct - competing well enough to contend in this race. Very good driver/trainer, winning 26 percent of the time. Could be a solid bet. Post 4 has been winning at a better than expected stat, suggesting respectable probability of success in this one. SURFSIDE BEACH - Composite pace figures say this race should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. With a really good 90 speed rating last time out, will most likely be a factor in this race. LOU'S SWEETREVENGE - It's risky to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the top class figures of the bunch.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Miami-Fla -1.5 over Syracuse

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Tuesday's Free Selection: UCLA Bruins/Illinois Illini under 150