Monday 2/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #5

#1 Can't Deny It	Expecting something better from him today after he stopped in stakes company last out, but the runner up that day was back to run second in the Risen Star, so maybe that Turfway race will come back OK overall?
#3 Instant Replay	Wouldn't want to be here at too short a price for a top team, but he should be in line for a good trip and is capable of something better than he showed at Oaklawn last out.
#2 Mobetterthangood	Thought he'd run a touch better in the Lecomte here last month, but he's back in a more reasonable spot today and might bring a more honest finishing effort.
Race Summary	Can't Deny It exits what might be a productive Turfway race, and he has enough bounce-back potential to land this if he can work out a trip from the fence.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#1 Gerlin's Empire	She might get just a bit overlooked here, but she's coming out of a decent race and might stack up better here than the board suggests. Cozy inside trip?
#8 Pondering	She's got some major excuses for her last three, so it wouldn't be a shock to see her get back to something better today while returning to a dirt sprint. Press and pounce score is possible -- one of the ones.
#3 Trouble in Love	Positional pace moved forward last out for an easy graduation score, and that baseline effort she has already established puts her in the frame again today with these. Capable underlay?
Race Summary	Gerlin's Empire has some appeal after chasing a decent winner in that last one, and she might tuck into a really nice spot in behind a little bit of pace.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#6 Sonofaship	His overall form is inconsistent, but he has historically run pretty well here and might appreciate getting back around one turn while coming out of that stakes spot. In with a chance.
#1 Yockey's Drivethru	Honest finisher always shows up, and he should be happy to stay on the fence while the outside pace settles early scores.
#4 Benji Star	Something like his last would make him tough right back today, but I don't really trust him to bring something that big again. Tough call, and he could roll, but I'll assume he's going to step back just a bit.
Race Summary	Sonofaship has done really good work at this local trip in the past, and he has some upside while getting back into what feels like a winnable spot.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #4

#6 KREWE D’ETAT (6-1)	Can – and must -- carry speed farther in second start after long absence.
#5 AINTFRAIDTODREAM (8-5)	Rallied past ‘Krewe’ in crowded field to finish second, adds blinkers.
#2 CRUZIN SASSY (5-1)	Took some money in otherwise eventful debut for a higher tag.
Race Summary	KREWE D’ETAT chased the 3-1 winner to upper stretch and tired in a useful return from a six-month layoff for her new connections. She figures up-close again but has an extra half-furlong to cover with second-time Lasix. The price is right for a win and place bet and 6-2, 6-5 and 5-6 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#2 RIVER DANCE (5-1)	Returns to main track sprint, gets in light, upset nod in deep field.
#4 MAGIC TIP (5-2)	Third in fast heat off the claim, romped to maiden win at 6F in first try at track.
#7 CURLIN’S LIL GAL (5-1	Good speed, good post, good odds, must avoid another stumbled start.
Race Summary	RIVER DANCE broke her maiden on the Emerald Downs dirt at this distance, then raced very wide and finished out of the money in two follow-up starts. She raced evenly in a pair of local turf route races, then worked in :47.1 on the main track. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#5 TRIPLE PASS (5-2)	Duplicate of latest could lead to winners’ circle in first long sprint attempt.
#1 GIANNO (7-2)	Speed and rail, hard used in latest, led at 1/8th pole before deep closers got to him.
#2 JONAS’ DREAM (9-2)	Good speed, idle since November claim at Del Mar, worked bullet Feb. 2.
Race Summary	TRIPLE PASS earned his top speed figure in a photo-finish setback after he was in tight at the quarter pole and swung 5-wide for a stretch ‘surge.’ He appears well suited for today’s distance in his third start as a gelding. Bet to win and place and play 5-1, 5-2 and 5-6 exactas.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Hotlist - February 17


Feb. 16, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3^rd race [NY, OC80k/N1X, 6F] – (5) Bam’s Bliss Kiss exits a pair of NY-bred stakes with first-time Lasix and makes his first start of 2025. (1) D’s a Rock was claimed for $50,000 three weeks ago when he set the pace and finished third and now gets blinkers and Lasix. (6) Army Gal was a debut winner for Linda Rice as the 7-5 favorite. (2) April Storm began at Finger Lakes with an eight-length maiden win and then a neck loss in a stakes race. He changed to the barn of David Donk and has been off since November.

4^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (1A) Scottish Storm (B) raced seven-wide, finished second, and got claimed in both of his starts. (1) Badge of War makes an entry where both are win contenders. (5) Sturdy returns from a year layoff as a new gelding and was last seen in the Tampa Derby (G3). (2) Good as He Gets was second last time in the best finish of his career. (4) Timing Difference returned from a year layoff, set the pace, and finished third.

5^th race [OC40k/SAL32k, 1 ? mi] – (4) Winnin’onweekends (A/C) was an open-length winner on the front-end going ten-furlongs and was bet down from 8-1 to 5-1. (1) Strapped got first by disqualification in the first-level allowance going nine-furlongs. (2) The King Cheek won 2 out of his last 3 starts which were at Parx. He will try a bit of a tougher field seeking his 13^th victory. (5) Prove Worthy fits well in this field on the basis of speed figures.

7^th race [NY, OC45k/N2X, 1 mi] – (8) Khali Magic was claimed from four races in a row at the beginning of 2024 when she won three times. Since then she ran against open company and in stakes race and drops down to the level at which she was best. (4) Dolomite has never finished out of the top three with a second in a NY-bred stakes and a third in the Demoiselle (G2). (1) P Mutter Pickle won the first-level allowance last month with a career best speed figure. (7) Fast and Friday has two good races following a layoff moving from an entry allowance to a third at today’s level after setting the pace.

Best bets: Scottish Storm (4^th); Winnin’onweekends (5^th). Best value: Bam’s Bliss Kiss (3^rd); Khali Magic (7^th).

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1A)	Scottish Storm	B on 1/16	4	Went seven-wide while rallying for second.
(4)	Winnin’onweekends	A on 1/19	5	Open-length winner going a long distance.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1	Leg A of the Cross Country Pick 5
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 3:43P
OP-R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 17, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ESPIONAGE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. POWERFUL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MARTINI BLU: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	ESPIONAGE	3/1	7/2
4	POWERFUL	5/1	7/1
7	MARTINI BLU	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
14	RAVIN'S TOWN	14	20/1	Front-runner	87	85	103.0	75.8	61.3
6	VULCAN	6	7/2	Front-runner	88	87	100.4	81.6	68.1
7	MARTINI BLU	7	9/2	Front-runner	97	91	81.4	89.0	76.0
10	TEE BURNS	10	30/1	Front-runner	89	80	78.6	70.4	52.4
11	THE QUEENS JULES	11	6/1	Front-runner	91	81	76.6	82.0	70.5
1	ESPIONAGE	1	3/1	Stalker	101	97	83.6	89.8	87.8
4	POWERFUL	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	89	83.6	85.2	78.2
9	WESTERN COMMAND	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	91	73.4	78.4	61.9
5	LUV TO WIN	5	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	90	82.8	80.0	68.5
2	PERMAFROST	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	87	76.0	75.4	56.4
8	ALGEBRA	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	81	69.4	76.4	64.4
13	DUAL MONARCHY	13	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	77	64.6	75.0	56.0
12	LAST DIAMOND	12	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	70	47.7	59.5	36.5
3	GOLD BARON	3	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	68	47.2	68.2	43.2

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 3:31pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 44

Rating:

#9 WILD DOMAIN (ML=2/1)


WILD DOMAIN - Although I sometimes have doubts about a pony who failed to win as the public choice in his last race, this gelding got a solid rating and fits well here. This gelding finished well ahead of the show horse on December 12th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 47, is tops in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 P J'S BOY (ML=7/2), #8 BUMPER STICKER (ML=4/1), #3 SILENT DRILL (ML=6/1),

P J'S BOY - Showed some physical problems last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. BUMPER STICKER - 4/1 is just too low of a price to take on this horse. SILENT DRILL - Don't believe this runner has what it takes to win in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WILD DOMAIN - This beautiful animal is getting the medication Lasix, today. Watch for a good one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #9 WILD DOMAIN on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#3 LOVE IN THE DARK (ML=8/1)
#7 IT'S BEEN REAL (ML=5/1)


LOVE IN THE DARK - Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a good effort on January 31st. That 59 fig this filly registered in her last event tells me she's a key player this time out. 12-31-59 are last three speed figs. Improving each time out is something she should do again today. IT'S BEEN REAL - Geroux and Gelner have had fantastic success together over the last year. I like that this first-timer has been working over the Fair Grounds oval and makes her debut here today. I always like to see a pony getting Lasix for the first time. Gelner adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 A WICKED NUMBER (ML=3/1), #9 BECKY'SGOTTAHAVEIT (ML=4/1), #1 CONGRATS CADET (ML=5/1),

A WICKED NUMBER - This mount hasn't been on the track since Jan 18th. Not even any drills. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable contender. BECKY'SGOTTAHAVEIT - This filly showed very liitle last time out. Finished seventh in her most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. CONGRATS CADET - Don't think that this filly has value at 5/1 today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 LOVE IN THE DARK on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - SA - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 99

SA-R6 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 REXFORD 3/1
# 4 KIMMER 30/1
# 5 TIZZ A GOOD THING 5/1

REXFORD is my choice. Has to be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races make this animal a solid contender. Might best this field here, showing very good figs of late. TIZZ A GOOD THING - Has to be given a shot - I like the figures from the last contest. Looks like a reliable player for the exotics.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 96

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 17, 2023 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING IN THEIR LAST TWO STARTS WILL CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 3LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY 9/5
# 4 EPIC LUCK 6/1
# 1 DIVINE MIRACLE 5/2

AFRAIDOFTHEBUNNY has a solid shot to take this race. Win percentage one of the strongest in this group of horses. Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group. Put up a sound speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. EPIC LUCK - Has respectable Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Must be considered - I like the figures from the last race. DIVINE MIRACLE - This gelding has been consistently running well in his latest outings. He has competitive class ratings, averaging 97, and has to be given a chance in here.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 2	Win ($2) / Place ($2) / Show ($2) / Exacta ($1) / Trifecta ($1) RollingDouble ($2) / Rolling Pick 3 ($1) Early Pick 4 ($.50)
Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:02P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SALTWATER COWBOY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SALTWATER COWBOY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LO NE SCOUT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FIREMAN DAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ra ting.
5	SALTWATER COWBOY	8/5	3/1
3	LONE SCOUT	2/1	6/1
2	FIREMAN DAN	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SALTWATER COWBOY	5	8/5	Front-runner	92	93	97.0	86.2	80.7
3	LONE SCOUT	3	2/1	Stalker	95	91	86.7	85.0	82.0
1	MONGOLIAN MAX	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	86	74.2	77.2	68.7
2	FIREMAN DAN	2	4/1	Trailer	99	94	85.4	81.5	77.0
4	ALWAYS ON CAY	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	72	103.3	75.8	67.8

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
6	6	HOOLIE N HECTOR	6/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 14	465.31
2	2	VANISHING ACT	4/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 14	454.90
7	7	FAIR GLIDER	7/2	Sowers, Mcgwire - 13	433.67
8	8	KASHA'S BOY	12/1	Harp, Rick - 5	412.93
5	5	FINNICK ODAIR	9/2	Moeykens, Adam - 7	407.82
1	1	MAKING SPARKS	5/2	Merton, Michael - 23	407.58
3	3	AL'S SPIRIT	3/1	Merton, Thomas - 10	385.79
4	4	MAGNIFICENTCHAPTER	10/1	Miller, Michael D - 5	372.47

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 9:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$4000 - MARYLAND PREFERRED NW $1,000 LAST 4 STARTS OR $15,000 IN 2024-25 ROSECROFT TRACKMAN SELECTIONS: 6-4-2-1

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 BABES DIG ME 9/2
# 6 RAMBLIN RECK 7/2
# 7 JOHNNY BADLANDS 6/1

BABES DIG ME sure does look ready to dominate. This gelding has been performing against some of the most competitive company in this pack within the recent past. Had one of the most solid speed ratings of the race in his last race. A good idea to use in your wagers. The 5 post sports an above average win figure at Rosecroft Raceway. RAMBLIN RECK - When starting from the 6 hole, a well above average win percentage has resulted. That 75 speed rating clocked in the last affair puts this standardbred in the mix in this event. JOHNNY BADLANDS - Great driver-handler, winning 19 percent of the time. Figures to be a strong play.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Post: 2:12 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 85 - Purse:$11000 - NW $6,400

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 MON AMOUR 7/2
# 5 CHAPOLIER 3/1
# 4 ALTUS HANOVER 9/2

MON AMOUR has a really strong shot to take this outing. His 90 average has this horse among the strongest TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this race. He has good class rankings, averaging 89. Worth considering for a bet in here. The group happens to know that when you put Bartlett and Adamczyk together respectable results happen frequently. CHAPOLIER - When starting from the 5 hole, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. This interesting entrant has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 83 avg class figure. Should play well in this one. ALTUS HANOVER - The 4 post is on fire here at Pocono Downs. More wins than the expected average. Not many knocks against this race horse, let's give him a shot.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Woodbine Mohawk Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
6	6	BIG BULLY	8/1	Jamieson, Jody C - 11	508.32
2	2	KJ OWEN	6/1	Macdonald, Brett A - 7	502.54
5	5	LETS GET PICKLED	9/2	Roy, Louis-Philippe - 18	499.43
8	8	SIR A	15/1	Jones, Tyler S - 6	490.41
1	1	BETTOR THAN PRIDE	10/1	Mcnair, Douglas R - 18	482.26
7	7	LETS GET ROCKED	3/1	Davis, Billy J - 9	479.71
9	9	FROWNIES MIRACLE	10/1	Borth, Tyler J - 11	471.44
3	3	RAYS KREDIT	5/1	Hudon, Phillippe - 4	466.89
4	4	PICK A GENRE	7/2	Macdonald, James A - 21	461.04
10	10	SHOW STOP	15/1	Henry, Trevor S - 11	434.75

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Norfolk St -9 over Delaware St