11-13-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (11/9)

Game 217-218: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.963; Cincinnati 134.108
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-3); Under

Game 219-220: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.971; Kansas City 135.905
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 14; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.418; Indianapolis 120.398
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Over

Game 223-224: Buffalo at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.763; Dallas 138.686
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under

Game 225-226: Houston at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.444; Tampa Bay 132.860
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 227-228: Tennessee at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.555; Carolina 130.595
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Under

Game 229-230: Washington at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.263; Miami 126.999
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 4; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 231-232: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.290; Atlanta 135.312
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Pick; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; Under

Game 233-234: Detroit at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 136.222; Chicago 140.125
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.925; Cleveland 125.867
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 37;
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 237-238: Arizona at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.115; Philadelphia 138.965
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 18; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 239-240: Baltimore at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.109; Seattle 126.599
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 241-242: NY Giants at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.949; San Francisco 139.059
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.617; NY Jets 137.703
Dunkel Line: New England by 2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (+1); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Sunday, November 13, 2011
ATLANTA 30, New Orleans 22
CINCINNATI 21, Pittsburgh 19
CLEVELAND 20, St. Louis 12
DALLAS 25, Buffalo 20
Jacksonville 22, INDIANAPOLIS 18
KANSAS CITY 26, Denver 21
MIAMI 20, Washington 12
PHILADELPHIA 31, Arizona 17
Houston 24, TAMPA BAY 19
Tennessee 22, CAROLINA 21
Baltimore 28, SEATTLE 12
SAN FRANCISCO 25, N.Y. Giants 17
CHICAGO 28, Detroit 20
N.Y. JETS 28, New England 20

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd's Blazing Five. ESPN Radio Personality and proclaimed gambler. Not a service, but better than most.

Eagles (-12) over Cardinals
Falcons (+1) over Saints
Bills (+5.5) over Cowboys
Giants (+3.5) over 49ers
Patriots (+1) over Jets

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

4* #118 Take Atlanta Falcons +1 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 p.m. Fox)

5* #124 Take Under 41.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 p.m. CBS)

4* #132 Take Kansas City Chiefs -3 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 1 p.m. CBS)


3* #146 Take Green Bay Packers -13.5 over Minnesota Vikings (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

5 VIKINGS/PACKERS Under 50.5

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

2 Unit Play. #219 Take Over 41 ½ Denver at Kansas City (1:00p.m., Sunday, Nov 13)
3 Unit Play. #220 Take Kansas City -3 over Denver (1:00p.m., Sunday, Nov 13)

5 Unit Play. #242 Take San Francisco -3 ½ over NY Giants (4:15p.m., Sunday, Nov 13)
(Game of the Weekend)

3 Unit Play. #244 Take New York Jets -1 ½ over New England (8:30p.m., Sunday, Nov 13 NBC)

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

2-Unit Play. Take #217 Pittsburgh (-3) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

2-Unit Play. Take #231 New Orleans (-1) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #226 Tampa Bay (+3.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 Buffalo (+5.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take #233 Detroit (+2.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

This Week's Totals:

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.5 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.0 Denver at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 46.0 Tennessee at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 37.5 Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 37.5 Washington at Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 13)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take 'Over' 41.0 Buffalo at Dallas (1 p.m.) AND Take 'Over' 38.5 Houston at Tampa Bay (1 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

JASON SHARPE

6 Unit Play Take #225 Houston -3 over Tampa Bay (1:00pm est)

4 Unit Play Take #217 Pittsburgh -3 over Cincinnati (1:00pm est)

3 Unit Play Take #243 New England +2 over New York Jets (8:20pm est)

[Mr. IWS]

Week 10 NFL Trends & Angles
It was a strong week for our Trends & Angles in NFL Week 9, as our Play of the Week, the Miami Dolphins, won their first game of the season in incredibly easy fashion 31-3 at Kansas City. We also had winners in other various angles with Seattle +11½, Denver +9, Atlanta -7, Green Bay -5½, Cincinnati +3 and Chicago +9. The only loser that turned up in our trends was Cleveland +10½.

This week, our feature angle deals with underdogs coming off of a bye week that won their last game before the bye, and also since we did so well last week, we will follow up with some of those same angles again.

Play against any underdog coming off of a bye that won its last game (40-26-3, 60.6% ATS since 2000): Sometimes, bye weeks come at a bad time as teams coming off of a win usually would prefer to play again the next day as opposed to sitting around for a couple of weeks. When you add in the fact that they are underdogs coming back, it usually means that they are playing a better team and that some rustiness will hurt them greatly. Incidentally, if we refine this system to only look at underdogs playing on the road in their comeback week, the record goes to 28-15-3, 65.1 percent. There are two qualifying plays for the original angle this week, and yes, in both cases we are fading the road team, bringing the 65.1 percent into play: Chicago -2½ vs. Detroit and Green Bay -13 vs. Minnesota (Monday).

Play on any single-digit road underdog following a road loss (123-79-5, 60.9% ATS since 2002): This angle makes sense from a contrarian viewpoint because it combines two situations that bettors like to avoid, with one being betting on losing teams and another being teams on road trips. The fact that the team is now a dog usually means that it is inferior, so books are able to pad these lines a bit, and let's face it, finding something that is over 60 percent in 201 decisions in almost 10 years is remarkable. This angle won with Miami in Week 9 and has one qualifying play in Week 10 in St. Louis +2½ at Cleveland.

Play on any team that lost its last game by 20 or more points at home (103-76-2, 57.5% ATS since 2002): Professional teams do not like to get embarrassed, especially at home, and they usually come back strong in their next game. This angle actually had three qualifiers in Week 9, but it only produced one official play because two of the qualifiers were opposing each other, and one official play was a winner. The two ugly qualifiers for Week 10 are Indianapolis +3 and Kansas City -3½.

Play on any road favorite coming off of a bye week (37-13-2, 74.0% ATS since 2002): You usually have to be a very good team to be a road favorite, and having an added week of preparation time has made the road chalk great investments over the years. This angle went a perfect 2-0 ATS in Week 9 with Atlanta and Green Bay both covering as road favorites off of extra rest. There is one qualifying play for Week 10, but it clashes with a previous angle as this trend says to take Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (78-48-2, 61.9% ATS since 2008): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on the results of the last three years, they may have over-adjusted the lines especially in this specific case of conference games where the visiting teams are fairly familiar with their next opponents. This angle had a sold 3-1 ATS showing in Week 9 while losing with only Cleveland and there are four qualifiers for Week 10, with three of them unfortunately clashing with earlier plays. The three clashers are Denver +3½ vs. Kansas City, Detroit +2½ vs. Chicago and Minnesota +13 vs. Green Bay. The new game unique to this angle is the New York Giants +3½.

Play on any home underdog that lost outright as a home underdog the previous week (51-33-2, 60.7% ATS since 2002): Generally speaking, home underdogs in the NFL are bad teams more often than not, and if these teams lose in this home dog role and then are again home dogs the following week, they are oftentimes disregarded by the betting public, who like to line up to bet against them. As the record suggests, this has led to good line value on the underdog, although it did lose its only play the last time this angle turned up way back in Week 4. This trend now resurfaces in Week 10 with Indianapolis +3.

Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (50-31, 61.7% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle did a 1-1 split when it last turned up in Week 6 and it finally shows up again with three plays in Week10: Pittsburgh -3 vs. Cincinnati, the New York Giants +3.5 vs. San Francisco and Minnesota +13 vs. Green Bay (Monday).

Play on any team that failed to cover the spread by 25 points or more in its last game (101-62-6, 62.0% ATS since 2002): The reason why this angle has worked so well over the years is a combination of teams not liking to be embarrassed and the fact that bettors usually shy away from teams that just lost to the spread so badly, thus giving them inherent value the following week. There is one qualifying play in Week 10: Kansas City -3½

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
1 0F 13
Game: Tennessee at Carolina (Sunday 11/13 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 46 -110

Cam Newton makes some rookie mistakes, but he has also been the main catalyst in transforming an offense that generated 12.2 points per game a year ago on 258 yards per game into a top-five offense this season - one that generates 414 yards and 23.4 points per game. So why are the Panthers just 2-6? The one thing Cam doesn't do is play defense. So, despite the quantum leap forward on offense Carolina has taken a big step back on defense as they're allowing 25.9 points per game. The Tennessee defense ranks in the bottom half of the league so expect Newton and company to fill the scoreboard once again in this one. Despite the fact that the Titans' offense is below average, they will face little resistance here. Tennessee has gone 14-6 to the OVER in their last 20 vs. a losing team and 14-5-1 to the OVER in their last 20 following a bye week. The Titans are also 9-2 OVER the past two seasons when facing good offensive teams (those averaging 350+ yards per game). Points should be plentiful in this one, so the OVER is the call.

[Mr. IWS]

Gridiron Gold Sheet

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3.0, ov38.5)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3.0, un38.5)
Two teams that can’t score, one that plays great defense. There aren’t many games that could mess up the Andrew Luck sweepstakes for Indy but this is one of them. The Jaguars have a tough defense but a new-look offense that is lousy. The passing game ranks 32nd in the NFL as does the total offense. The Colts have packed it in. The defense is soft, thin and getting worse. The 'D' ranks No. 32 in points allowed and third-down efficiency, No. 31 in rushing yards and first downs allowed and No. 30 in total yards. So we have the battle of the worst offense vs the worst defense here. So maybe they will be playing the whole game on the 50 yard line. Take the tick and GO UNDER the total.
Projected Score: Jaguars 16, Colts 13

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Sheet

BUFFALO by 6 over Dallas
SAN FRAN by 14 over N.Y. Giants
OVER The Total Denver/ Kansas City

[Mr. IWS]

Killer Sports Newsletter

Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser POW
4-Star Baltimore -1, N. England +7

Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser POW
4-Star Jac +7, K C +6.5, Chic +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Nellys
1=8-3
2=4-6
3=7-3
4=6-2
5=3-5-2

rating 5 san francisco (-3½)
rating 4 atlanta (+1½)
rating 3 houston (-3)
rating 2 kansas city (-3)
rating 1 cincinnati (+3)

Atlanta Falcons