11-13-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

75 dime play - Giants + 3.5
30 dime play - Jets - 2

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root free play : Washington Redskins

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

NFL HIGH ROLLER
CHEIFS -3 3*

3 GAME NFL PACKAGE ALL 3*
BUCS +3.5
RAMS +3
COLTS +3

NFL DIVISION TOTAL OF THE YEAR
COLTS/JAGS OVER 37.5 OPINION PLAY

NHL OVER/UNDER
BLACKHAWKS/OILERS OVER 5 3*

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

5% PITTSBURGH
4 houston
3 seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Root:

Kansas City Perfect Play
Jets Fortune 500
San Fran Pinnacle
Cincinnati No Limit
Tampa Bay Millionaire
Dallas Insider

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* Division GOY (17-8, 68% s/2010 with GOY plays)
My 10* AFC West Game of the Year is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Chiefs lost 41-7 to Buffalo in Week 1 at home and then lost 48-3 at Detroit in Week 2. They also took a HUGE hit when RB Charles (1,120 and 1,467 yards the last two seasons) was lost for the season in that Week 2 loss. The Chiefs played more competitively in a Week 3 loss at San Diego (20-17) and then to many people’s surprise, ripped off FOUR consecutive wins. Then, just as suddenly, the Chiefs were humbled 31-3 at home last Sunday by previously winless Miami. The Broncos opened the season 1-4 and when Kyle Orton failed miserably, turned to Tim Tebow in the team’s sixth game, which came in Week 7 after a bye. Tebow had rallied the team (in relief of Orton) vs the Chargers in the team's fifth game and it made sense to give the highly-questionable first-round pick of a year ago, a shot. Tebow was just TERRIBLE vs the Dolphins in his first start of 2011 but somehow rallied the Broncos to an 18-15 OT win. Tebow was given lots of credit for that win but the fact is, if Miami hadn’t mishandled Denver’s onside kick attempt in that game, Tebow would have never had a chance to convert the game-tying drive and all the talk would have been about his poor play. Instead, the “he just wins crowd” carried the day and then in his second start of 2011, Tebow was TERRIBLE again (for the entire game, not just the first 55 minutes, like vs Miami) and the Broncos got crushed at home by the Lions, 45-10. However, Tebow and the Broncos won 38-24 in Oakland last Sunday, as the Raiders played as poorly as a team could. Oakland entered the game allowing 116.9 YPG on the ground but allowed the Broncos to rush for 299 yards (7.7 YPC!), as McGahee looked healthy & young again, gaining 163 yards (20 carries) while scoring two TDs. Tebow was a modest 10-of-21 through the the air (just 124 yards) but had two TDs passes, no INTs plus ran for 118 yards. It shouldn’t go unmentioned that Carson Palmer threw three INTs in his first start for Oakland (had thrown three in his first game for the Raiders in Week 7, playing only the second half) and the league’s most penalized team didn’t miss a chance to prove just that, getting flagged 15 times for 130 yards. I wouldn’t make too much of Denver’s win, as the Oakland defense looked disinterested, surely seeming as if it had no interest in tackling ANY Denver ball-carrier. The Broncos remain on the road for the second straight week, while the Chiefs are home for a THIRD consecutive weekend (advantage KC). Tebow is still (in my opinion), a hopelessly flawed QB, who makes poor decisions, holds onto the ball too long and is a terribly inaccurate passer. Note that after getting sacked 13 times in starts vs Miami and Detroit, he was sacked just once by Oakland. However, let me note that Tebow was knocked to the ground 18 other times by the Raiders. The Broncos won’t come close to matching their running prowess of last week (entered that game averaging only 110.1 YPG on the ground) and I expect Tebow to have a tough time. Matt Cassel has surely been erratic this season but let me remind all that the Chiefs were 7-0 SU at home last year, until losing a meaningless Week 17 home game to the Raiders. Cassel had 13 TDs and just one INT in those seven straight KC home wins but then played poorly vs the Raiders (11-of-33 for 115 yards with no TDs and two INTs / 19.9 QB rating). There was no real concern but then he “did it again” in KC’s 30-7 wild card home loss to Baltimore, completing 9-of-18 for 70 yards with no TDs and three INTs (20.4 QB rating). His 2011 season has been a ‘grab bag’ but one also should remember how well he played back in 2008, filling in for an injured Tom Brady (led Pats to an 11-5 record). I’m fine with Cassel being a solid but not spectacular NFL quarterback and in Bowe (39 catches / 16.6 YPC) and Breaston (29 catches / 15.5 YPC), he’s got a decent pair of wideouts. Bowe did not play a full season in 2009 but in 2007, 2008 and 20010, he averaged 76 receptions per season with 27 TDs (15 in 2010). KC won the AFC West with a 10-6 mark last year and even though this year’s division may be won with either nine or maybe even eight wins (Chargers did just that in 2008), this game is almost a “must win” for the Chiefs if they are to have any hopes of challenging for this year’s division title. The reason is, KC plays at New England next, is home to Pittsburgh the following week, then plays at Chicago and the NY Jets, before hosting Green Bay in Week 15. Just how many wins can the team expect in that five-game stretch? Division games conclude the season with a Week 16 home game vs the Raiders and a Week 17 road trip to Denver but if the Chiefs don’t win here, they will very likely be ‘toast’ by those two games. “Must win” has never meant “will win” but in this case, I’m betting that the Chiefs have the “right stuff” to beat the Broncos (especially at this favorable line) and that win puts them in a tie for the AFC West lead heading into that brutal upcoming five-week stretch.

Good luck... Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 10 Total (20-9, 69% since 2010)
My 10* NFL Week 10 Total is on Jax/Ind Over at 1:00 ET.

The Rams had “their day in the sun” in Week 8, beating the Saints 31-21. It was the Dolphins’ turn to win in Week 9, beating the Chiefs 31-3. Is this the Colts’ turn to win here in Week 10? The Colts are 15-5 all-time vs the Jags, including 8-2 here in Indy but of course, Peyton was the team’s QB in all of those games. With Peyton sidelined, the Jaguars will face a much different division rival this time around. The 0-9 Colts rank 30th in the league with 14.2 PPG and 31st with 282.8 YPG. Jacksonville’s problem here is that the Jags come in dead-last in the NFL (32nd) in both scoring (12.3 PPG) and total offense (242.6 YPG). Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert owns a 45.7 completion percentage, which is last among qualifying QBs and his 907 passing yards in seven games, is 314 fewer than Indy’s fill-in Curtis Painter has over the same number of contests. The Jags were off last week but in Gabbert’s two previous starts, he failed to reach even 100 yards passing. Many will remember Jacksonville’s 12-7 MNF win over the Ravens, a game in which Gabbert went 9-of-20 for 93 yards with no TDs and no INTs (59.0 QB rating). He followed that effort by completing 10-of-30 passes in a 24-14 loss at Houston, throwing for 97 yards (one TD / 2 INTs / 26.7 QB rating). While Jacksonville’s owns the NFL’s worst offense (at least statistically), it does own a top-10 defense, ranking 5th in yards allowed (307.0 YPG) and T-8th in points allowed (20.4 PPG). That D should be good enough to hold down Painter and Co. right? Maybe but maybe not. Here’s why I’m going over in this game. No. 1 is, we get to go over one of the three games in Week 10 with a posted total of right around 37-38. No. 2, unlike with Was/Mia and StL/Cle, this game is indoors, so there are NEVER any weather concerns. No. 3 is that the struggling Jacksonville offense gets to go up against Indy’s awful defense, in those perfect conditions. Maurice Jones-Drew is among the NFL’s rushing leaders with 740 yards (4.5 YPC) and the last three seasons (six games), he’s averaged 96.2 YPG vs the Colts, three times topping 100 yards. The Colts rank 31st in the league in rushing defense, as well as ranking 31st in overall defense (406.1 YPG). No team has allowed more points that the Colts, who are the lone NFL team allowing more than 30 PPG (31.4). Gabbert has struggled but the Indy pass D allows 71.2% completions, 260.0 YPG, 18 TD passes vs only four INTs and has just 13 sacks. Jacksonville did score 28 and 24 vs the Colts last year, so just why can’t the Jags move the ball in this one? Garrard wasn’t all that much better than Gabbert, was he? They have to know this is one of the few games the Colts have a chance of winning this year and despite all the “Suck for Luck” talk out there, the Indy players can’t possibly want to go 0-16! Indianapolis has won 138 regular-season games over the past 12 seasons, plus two AFC championships and a Super Bowl. The Colts entered the 2011 season with NINE consecutive playoff appearances (tying an NFL record) and while the team’s playoff streak was unofficially over when Peyton couldn’t ‘answer the bell’ for the season’s first few games (and now for much beyond that) , I’m betting the Colts put forth a HUGE effort here. The Colts CAN’T rely on their defense, as it’s had a lot of injuries to starters and its depth was not good to begin with. The Colts have struggled vs the run for years and are doing so again in 2011 with little hope that it will get better. The Colts have managed to score 17 points or more in FIVE of their nine games this year and I firmly believe that they will be able to exceed that here. If I’m right, this game will ‘fly over’ this very attainable number. I’m not expecting a Gabbert/Painter shootout but I am expecting both teams to reach the 20s.