11-14-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Minnesota at Green Bay

The Packers look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog. Green Bay is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (11/9)

Game 245-246: Minnesota at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.481; Green Bay 142.311 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 47 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; 51 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13); Under

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NFL

Monday, November 14, 2011
GREEN BAY 36, Minnesota 17

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

3* #146 Take Green Bay Packers -13.5 over Minnesota Vikings (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

5 VIKINGS/PACKERS Under 50.5

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

BEST BET

3% MINNESOTA +13

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

STRONG

VIKINGS +13 at packers

[Mr. IWS]

David Chan aka The Dragon

NFL- Vikings @ Packers PICK: 8* Packers -13 "MNF SPECIAL"
NFL- Vikings @ Packers PICK: 10* un 50.5 "TOTAL ASSASSIN"

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Vikings at Packers: What Bettors Need To Know
By Covers Staff


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50.5)

THE STORY: Rookie Christian Ponder didn't project to be a first-round draft pick this year and certainly didn't figure to be in the mix for the starting quarterback job in his first season with the Minnesota Vikings. So as Ponder gets set to make his third career start on Monday night, he'll again be asked to overcome steep odds when the Vikings pay a visit to Lambeau Field to face the reigning Super Bowl champion – and unbeaten – Green Bay Packers. It will be the second time in three starts that Ponder will be staring across the field at Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have reeled off 14 consecutive victories dating to last season's run to the Super Bowl.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-6): Coming out of its bye, Minnesota will look to build on a 24-21 win at Carolina in Week 8. Ponder threw for 236 yards and a touchdown and Adrian Peterson had rushing and receiving TDs. The Vikings led visiting Green Bay at halftime in Ponder’s first start, but the Packers ripped off 20 consecutive points in the third quarter to take control. The Vikings will lean heavily on Peterson, who rushed for 175 yards in the first meeting and has amassed 982 yards in nine games against the Packers. Jared Allen, who leads the league in sacks with 13.0, had two of Minnesota’s four against Rodgers in Week 6.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-0): Rodgers continued his brilliant season by throwing four touchdown passes in a 45-38 win at San Diego. Charlie Peprah and Tramon Williams returned interceptions for TDs as Green Bay surpassed 40 points for the third time this season. It was the second four-touchdown game of the season for Rodgers, who has tossed an off-the-charts 24 scoring passes against only three interceptions. He’s also the first player in league history to compile a passer rating of at least 110 in each of the first eight games to start a season. The defense, particularly against the pass, continues to be a concern after allowing 65 points in the last two games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This line has moved around a lot between 13 and 14 but it looks like it'll close on the low side of the two-touchdown mark. The total could be found as high as 51.5 but it looks like it's settled at 50.5.

TRENDS:

The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.

The Packers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with losing records.

The under is 7-1 in the Vikings' last eight road games while the over is 7-2 in the Packers' last nine home games.

WEATHER:

A little chilly but that's to be expected for a Packer home game. Game-time temperature should be around 41 degrees F.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Green Bay is the third reigning Super Bowl champ to open the following season 8-0, joining San Francisco (1990) and Denver (1998).

2. Minnesota’s Allen has registered a sack in a franchise-record 10 straight games. He has 11.5 sacks in his last six games against the Packers.

3. The Packers are averaging 34.4 points per game. New Orleans (31.9) is the only other team averaging more than 30.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Vikings 20. The Vikings will look to use the running of Peterson to play keep-away from Rodgers. It works – for about a half.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bets

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-13, 50.5)

Monday Night Football betting action continues this week with a big time duel in the NFC North between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings are only a 2-6 team, but it feels like they are a lot more promising than a lot of the other teams that are hanging around them in the standings. QB Christian Ponder hasn’t really played all that well, completing 52.0 percent of his passes for 554 yards with three scores and two picks. However, he has been a proven winner, winning one game against the Carolina Panthers and coming as close as any team has to beating these Packers the week before it. As always, the game is going to come down to how well RB Adrian Peterson runs the ball. “Purple Jesus” has been out of his mind again this year, as he has scored six times in the last four games and has found the end zone at least once in six of his eight games. He rumbled for 175 yards the first time that these two teams did battle. Keep a close eye on WR Percy Harvin. He has been relatively quiet over the course of these last few weeks, including accounting for just 23 total yards against the Pack, but with a bye week to figure out some more schemes, one would figure that the former Florida Gator will have some tricks to put on display.

Last week’s win over the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium might have been the hardest challenge that the Packers have faced all season long, and it really might be the last big time test that this team faces before a Thanksgiving Day duel at the Detroit Lions. The team’s offense has been out of this world, accounting for well over 400 yards and over 30 points per game. The catalyst, as always, is QB Aaron Rodgers, who should be considered an odds on favorite to win the MVP honors this season. Rodgers has thrown for 2,619 yards and 24 TDs against three picks. He is averaging just under 10 yards per pass, and thanks to a completion percentage of 72.5, he has the highest quarterback rating in the league by a country mile at 129.1. There are still some questions, though. The pass defense for Green Bay just hasn’t been all that great this season, ranking in the bottom third of the league, and the rushing game on offense is only good enough to rank No. 20 in the league.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The road team is 13-6 ATS over the course of the last 19 meetings, and the underdogs are 18-7 ATS in the last 25. That being said, we tend to think that the Vikes are going to be able to hang around in this one to at least keep things within two touchdowns. There’s a reason that this spread has gone down over the course of the week.

PICK: Minnesota Vikings +13.5

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA CBB NEWS AND NOTES
Washington St.-Gonzaga Preview
By ESPNSports.Com


Washington State Cougars at Gonzaga Bulldogs (N/A)

Facing a non-conference schedule that includes five major conference teams and last season's national runner-up, Gonzaga coach Mark Few knows many challenges lay ahead.

After the 23rd-ranked Bulldogs survived an unexpected one in their opener, they'll be looking for some revenge when they host Washington State on Monday night.

Gonzaga (1-0) needed a late surge to hold off Eastern Washington 77-69 on Friday after trailing with less than seven minutes remaining. Robert Sacre had team highs of 22 points and 10 rebounds for the Bulldogs, who scored 11 of their final 13 points from the free-throw line.

Few earned the win in his 400th game in large part to Sacre and Marquise Carter (16 points), the team's only two seniors.

"I am absolutely pleased," Few said. "This was our first night out, against a veteran team."

The schedule only gets tougher. Following the matchup with the Cougars, Gonzaga has meetings with Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan State, Arizona and Butler before 2012.

"Our entire schedule is going to be like this," Few said. "We cannot get caught up in the hype and the rankings."

Especially with what could be a tough challenge from Washington State awaiting.

The Cougars, who will be playing their season opener, dominated the Bulldogs 81-59 on Dec. 8, holding Gonzaga to 19-for-48 shooting and forcing 25 turnovers.

That team, however, was led by Klay Thompson, who left for the NBA after averaging 21.6 points during his junior season. The Cougars return starters Reggie Moore, Marcus Capers and Abe Lodwick, but will have to replace the scoring Thompson provided.

"This is a team that understands maybe we don't have a superstar, but we can be good as a group of guys accepting our role and working together," coach Ken Bone said. "Butler made it to the Final Four with that attitude."

Key reserve Faisal Aden, who scored 14 points in 21 minutes Dec. 8, also returns for a Cougars team that has lost four of five in Spokane.

Gonzaga was ranked in each of those five matchups, and their four victories came by an average of 18.5 points.

Washington State, which finished 22-13 and lost to Wichita State in the NIT semifinals last season, has won three of the last five meetings overall. The Cougars will test out their new more balanced offensive approach in the debut of former Fresno State guard Mike Ladd, who transferred after 2009-10 and had to sit out last season per NCAA rules.

The 6-foot-5 junior, selected as the team captain, has averaged 9.9 points in two college seasons.

"We don't have anybody who could create shots, get them off and elevate the way Klay did," Bone said.

Gonzaga will likely look to get Sacre off to a good start Monday. The 7-foot center went 1 for 5 and scored six points while committing five turnovers against the Cougars last season, though he did grab a game-high 10 rebounds.

Washington State last won at Gonzaga on Dec. 5, 2007, 51-47.

[Mr. IWS]

COLLEGE FUNDS

Monday's Best NCAA CBB Bets

Richmond Spiders at Davidson WildCats (-4)

If the Richmond Spiders are going to make another inspiring run in the NCAA Tournament, they have a lot of work ahead of them.

With just one returning starter from last season’s squad that went all the way to the Sweet 16, the Spiders took a while to get on the same page in their opener. They were held to 25 points in the first half before rebounding to put 41 on the board in the second frame, downing American University 66-56 on Veteran’s Day.

“It wasn’t the smoothest game we’ve ever played,” Richmond coach Chris Mooney said. “It was a little bit choppy, but I thought our defense was really, really good in the second half, especially down the stretch.”

That defense will be tested against Davidson, which has four starters returning from last season’s squad. Look out for the Wildcats this season.

PICK: Davidson WildCats


Washington State Cougars at Gonzaga Bulldogs (N/A)

Gonzaga picked up a win in its opener, but it wasn’t nearly enough to get Zags bettors to the pay window.

The Bulldogs prevailed 77-69 over Eastern Washington on Veteran’s Day but didn’t come close to covering as 21-point favorites. Not that Mark Few cared or anything.

“Our entire schedule is going to be like this,” Few told reporters. “We cannot get caught up in the hype and the rankings.I am absolutely pleased. This was our first night out, against a veteran team.”

The win was a big one for Few, who coached his 400th career game with Gonzaga. He is 317-83 lifetime and has never won fewer than 20 games in a season. As usual, this Zags club is going to face a ton of chalk at home and Gonzaga always has trouble covering against Washington State.

The Cougars have covered in four of the last five meetings between the two clubs.

PICK: Washington State Cougars

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Struggling Jets Set To Host Lightning
By Davis Harper


Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets (+125, 5.5)
LIGHTNING (8-6-2) at JETS (5-9-3)

TV: SUN (HD),TSN-JETS

LAST 10: Tampa Bay 7-3-0; Winnipeg 3-5-2.

SEASON SERIES: This is the second meeting of the season between the Southeast Division rivals. In their first meeting, Tampa Bay shut Winnipeg out, 1-0, at the St. Pete Times Forum behind 28 saves from Dwayne Roloson. Dating back to their days in Atlanta, the Jets have lost 12 in a row to the Lightning, the longest streak of its kind in the League.

BIG STORY: The initial cheers of Winnipeg's rejuvenated fan base have recently turned to a chorus of boos, as the Jets have lost two in a row at MTS Centre and five straight overall. After a slow start, the Bolts have won seven of 10, but a 3-5-2 road record suggests Winnipeg could bounce back.

LIGHTNING: Tampa Bay had a three-game winning streak snapped Saturday in St. Louis, where its usually potent offense was limited to only 19 shots in a 3-0 Blues shutout. After the game, coach Guy Boucher expressed frustration over his team's prolonged road struggles.

"This is getting to be very disappointing. We were a terrific road team last year and we played hard and we showed up every single night. So far this season it's been the opposite. We're outstanding at home, we don't give anything to anyone, but then we get on the road and we get down by two or three goals, usually in the first period," Boucher told the Lightning's official web site. "I've changed the pregame routine, shuffled the lines, I've done this, I've done that, I've done it all. We're going to have to find another way."

JETS: If each successive Winnipeg loss has been a tough pill to swallow, then Saturday night's defeat to Columbus required the Heimlich maneuver. The Blue Jackets took a two-goal lead and, despite 36 shots on goal, the Jets could muster only a single, too-little-too-late tally in a 2-1 loss.

Winnipeg relies heavily on goalie Ondrej Pavelec, who has started the past nine games and has faced the fifth-most shots of any goalie (427). While his 4-7-3 record does not dazzle, offensive problems are the more urgent issue. The Jets have only netted ten in the five losses, and failed to score at all in the first meeting against Tampa Bay.

WHO'S HOT: Bolts goalies, at least against the Jets franchise. Roloson is 10-0-1 with a 2.49 GAA lifetime – including this season's shutout – while his regular replacement, Mathieu Garon, is 5-0-0 with a 0.80 GAA.

INJURY REPORT: Lightning forward Ryan Malone and defenseman Victor Hedman are both questionable for Monday's contest with upper body injuries. … For the Jets, six players are on injured reserve, including recent additions Tobias Enstrom (broken collarbone) and Randy Jones (right ankle).

STAT PACK: For Winnipeg, success at home hinges on power-play defense. In their two wins, the Jets have killed all 10 opponent power plays. In their three losses, opposing teams are 5-for-14 on the man advantage.

PUCK DROP: After Winnipeg lost to the League's worst team Saturday to bring their skid to five, Jets coach Claude Noel sounded subdued.

"Our guys played OK, but we didn't play as smart as we need to play," Noel said. "We've got to be better at managing the game. It gets frustrating."

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Monday's Best NHL Bets

Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens (-105, 5)

The Buffalo Sabres have to be worried about Ryan Miller.

He snapped at the media after looking shaky in Buffalo’s 6-2 loss to Boston on Saturday. Miller gave up three goals on 22 shots and then left the game with an upper body injury, likely a result of a collision with Milan Lucic.

Jhonas Enroth has been hot and will likely get the call, but the Sabres need to man up a bit. Nobody came to Miller’s aid after Lucic steamrolled him and the netminder wasn’t pleased about it.

"I'm embarrassed that we didn't respond the way we should have," Paul Gaustad told reporters. "It falls on myself. I look at myself first, and I wasn't good enough. We didn't push back. There's no reason to be scared. We had to go after it, and we didn't."

Montreal has won two straight and is a good bet to snap a four-game losing streak against Buffalo.

PICK: Montreal Canadiens


Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets (+125, 5.5)

If the Jets don’t pull together a bit soon, they may wish they were back in Atlanta, where nobody cared when they suffered though long winless streaks.

Slumps don’t go over as well in hockey-crazy Winnipeg. The Jets dropped their fifth straight game Saturday night, falling 2-1 to the lowly Blue Jackets.

"My task is to get you as an individual player to deal with reality,” Winnipeg coach Claude Noel told reporters. “This is what you are. Now, they sometimes don't see that. People have different levels when it comes to that. There are people that choose to maybe live in a house with not many mirrors, so we have to provide them. That's OK."

The Lightning are coming off a 3-0 shutout against St. Louis and will come to play Monday.

PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Monday’s Comp Play

NFL
Minnesota +13