Tuesday 3/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk: Parx Tuesday Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Analysis

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March 3, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Throughout March, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet will offer a 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion on the Tuesday late pick four at Parx. The initial offering co-features a pair of stakes races, the $75,000 Main Line and the $75,000 City of Brotherly Love. Take down the late pick 4 – which has a 50-cent base bet – and add extra 1/ST Rewards Points to your parimutuel winnings.

Race 7: allowance / optional claiming

Eight are entered in this 2-turn mile, including last year’s Grade 1 Haskell fourth-place finisher Just Step On It, who went off form to close 2024. Feb. 10 debut winner #1 Renard showed something winning around 2 turns in his first attempt and winning a slugfest in which the top pair drew 7 lengths clear of the rest. Trainer Jamie Ness has that one and #3 Stronsino entered, but slight preference to Renard with top pilot Mychel Sanchez. The Ness pair will be my opening-leg keys. The 9-5 morning line favorite #7 Big Boys Answer is in raging form sprinting, so not sure the draw to stretch him out again. I’ll swing against at an underlay price.

Race 8: Main Line Stakes

Rick Dutrow and Joel Rosario will attract a lot of eyes and dollars with 8-5 morning line favorite #6 Diriyah. She adds blinkers off a hard-fought win at Horseshoe Indianapolis in the maiden ranks in her second start. Dutrow ran five horses at that meet, winning twice, but interestingly this one was entered for turf both times and rained off the grass. The blinkers may keep her closer, but she didn’t exhibit any real pace while chasing modest splits. There are 3 stretch-out sprinters in this 6-horse field and is my impression one will prove more brilliant. Focus on #1 Maximus Angelicus, #2 Hollywood Beauty and #5 Burner Account.

Race 9: City of Brotherly Love Stakes

With 1-1 morning line favorite McAfee expected to scratch after running in Saturday’s Gotham at Aqueduct (he was cross-entered in both races), disregard any odds projections in this spot. Big lean here to #6 Harrigan, unbeaten in 2 starts for Mike Pino. The Medaglia d’oro colt hails from a strong female family and he’s better than the slow time indicates over a super heavy track Feb. 5 at Parx. The other consideration is #2 Right Wing Runner, who moved way too quick last time in makeup mode for a stumbling start in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Laurel. That race’s winner came back to repeat in stakes company last week. Single or two-deep.

Race: claiming

Ten veterans who haven’t won a race since Dec. 4 square off over 1 mile and 70 yards. #4 Tycoon fits the conditions for the race like a glove and makes a class drop. He’ll be prominent from the start. #8 Kobe B has been facing tougher and gets the excellent ‘2 sprints and now a route’ form cycle after missing an entire year. Respected trainer Mike Pino gets top rider Mychel Sanchez on a rider upgrade that feels like go-time. #10 It’s Game Time has consistency issues but has been facing tougher for connections difficult to toss. Include among this trio.

The Ticket:

1,3 with 1,2,5 with 6,2 with 4,8,10 = $18 for each 50 cents
--Consider singling #6 in third leg for a $9 play for each 50 cents

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #5

#2 Carpis	He has always been a high-ceiling type, and he could be controlling pace in this spot that doesn't have a lot of other early burn. Better stuff should on the front end.
#9 Summertime Peppers	His finishing form at Delta might transfer well enough right now, but I have a mild worry about the race flow and whether he'll get enough pace to kick into.
#3 Yockey's Drivethru	He's an honest finisher with some running lines that would score here, but he's another who lacks the kind of early speed the top choice is bringing to battle and could be along too late.
Race Summary	Hoping Carpis is able to wire this group without too much hassle in the early going -- he looks most committed on paper and might be able to give this group the slip into the lane.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#7 Big Trouble	Really liked the turnback effort last out when she was getting there late after a tricky trip. Could see her getting over the top today at an OK price.
#6 Accomplished Girl	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone leaving heavily here -- she has been very good on the local turf course and should be in line for another perfect trip right near the pace.
#4 Oeuvre	She's not quite as automatic anymore as she once was, but she's still game and good enough to compete with this kind of group. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Race Summary	The pace of #8 Speedy Traveler makes her a threat in here from the high draw, but I think Big Trouble might be able to get last laugh today in another fun race in this series for local turf sprinters.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#8 My Man Brandon	Get a look at him ahead of this, but there are a couple of snappy works on the page, and there appears to be enough honest form on paper in here to keep the price playable at first asking. Will start my work here.
#10 Star Rock Star	His turf route run last out was pretty solid, and he'll get back to a dirt sprint trip that may end up being his best. Capable, but I think there are a few potential winners in this one, and I worry he's going to get bet.
#7 High Adventure	Riser just missed at Delta when stepping up off the claim, earning him another step up today -- and he has some pace in a race without a bunch of sharp forward players. Could be gone.
Race Summary	My Man Brandon looks interesting enough in here, and I'm trying to stand against Star Rock Star under the assumption he'll take some money. High Adventure on the plays as the pace?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#1 SURPRISINGLY PERFECT (5-2)	Still going strong at age 11, one to beat off last two one-mile races.
#4 LANSDOWNE (9-2)	Wired field for $10k, claimed, can revert to rating tactics.
#7 MONGOLIAN MEMORY (8-1)	Can rally for share for high-percentage trainer-jockey duo.
Race Summary	SURPRISINGLY PERFECT benefitted from a fast pace when he won going away in the same spot two starts ago. He stepped up in class and ran a late scare into Cornishman (12/3-4-2, $155k), the same rival who beat him in a photo-finish off a three-month layoff in the fall. Bet to win and place and play a 1/4, 7/ALL trifecta.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#1 INXPRESS (5-1)	Went down fighting in long sprint on turf, clean break the key to landing diploma.
#6 MAXIMUM SPARKLE (7-2)	Heavily bet in three MSW sprints at Emerald, ran second twice in the fall.
#3 EXPECT LOVE (3-1)	California invader is turning heads in the morning for new barn, adds blinkers.
Race Summary	INXPRESS put forth a ‘valiant’ effort, dueling with the even money favorite before a deep closer passed both runners in deep stretch. Perhaps it was the switch to turf that awakened the 3-year-old filly, or perhaps it showed her true ability with an alert start. The price is right for a win and place bet off a :34-1/5 workout Feb. 26 for her return to the main track. Also play a 1-3-6 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#3 HANDSOME HARRY (3-1)	Better than last pair show, won twice at 1M before re-claim by same barn.
#9 LYKAN (6-5)	Takes the plunge for Diodoro, trying to reverse tailspin in second half of 2024.
#1 SHANAGOLDEN (12-1)	Improved second start after 1-1/2 years away, changes surfaces.
Race Summary	HANDSOME HARRY challenged for the lead against a repeat winner in a one-mile race dominated by closers two starts back, then he dueled through fast fractions and tired in a long sprint. He has two wins at the distance and gets the call in his third start off the re-claim by Silva. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-9 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 Parlay (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $12,100 • Post: 2:35P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SUMMER HOLIDAY is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * LIL TEMPTATION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. URBAN DANCER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. LA VILLAGE LUMIERE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	LIL TEMPTATION	6/1	4/1
4	URBAN DANCER	4/1	6/1
6	LA VILLAGE LUMIERE	8/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	NIGHT NURSE	3	5/2	Front-runner	52	54	84.4	39.4	34.4
1	NOTHING BUT TIME	1	7/2	Front-runner	48	51	79.0	46.4	33.9
7	LIL TEMPTATION	7	6/1	Stalker	64	69	48.6	60.8	55.8
4	URBAN DANCER	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	59	80.6	49.3	41.3
6	LA VILLAGE LUMIERE	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	65	49.4	48.0	39.5
2	SUMMER HOLIDAY	2	20/1	Trailer	57	54	35.4	46.6	38.1
5	MINIME	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	55	43.2	48.4	40.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 4	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / (.50) Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:36P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. BLAME DA STOOPS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BLAME DA STOOPS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface. SMACKZILLA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SIMMERON: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance /surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. WAYLON'S GUITAR: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is ca rrying at least 120 lbs.
3	BLAME DA STOOPS	3/1	6/1
7	SMACKZILLA	3/1	6/1
2	SIMMERON	12/1	6/1
1	WAYLON'S GUITAR	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LINCOLNS BRISKET	5	15/1	Front-runner	59	61	66.1	46.7	34.7
4	MI SATURDAY	4	5/2	Front-runner	65	67	65.4	63.5	58.0
6	BUCK LAKE	6	10/1	Front-runner	63	64	65.3	32.1	21.6
3	BLAME DA STOOPS	3	3/1	Stalker	65	62	71.1	63.6	57.6
1	WAYLON'S GUITAR	1	7/2	Stalker	68	69	64.2	59.0	52.5
2	SIMMERON	2	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	72	64.4	62.9	54.4
7	SMACKZILLA	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	72	56.6	62.0	55.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 87

MAIN LINE S. - FOR FILLIES THREE-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $50 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $250 MAY BE MADE UP TO THE TIME OF ENTRY. $100 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $100 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $75,000 GUARANTEED TO BE DIVIDED*: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, AND 4% TO FIFTH. *ALL

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DIRIYAH 8/5
# 2 HOLLYWOOD BEAUTY 4/1
# 4 BEAUTIFUL BLOME 9/2

DIRIYAH looks to be a strong contender. The equipment change of blinkers going on today should make a difference. Has performed very well as of late in route races, posting a nifty 65 avg Equibase Speed Fig. This filly has a good win percent in dirt route races. HOLLYWOOD BEAUTY - Should best this field here, showing solid figs of late. The odds should be just right on this entrant. BEAUTIFUL BLOME - The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a definite contender. Could beat this group given the 69 speed rating garnered in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Fair Grounds - Race #5 - Post: 2:45pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#8 THE BOSS SOSS (ML=8/1)
#4 TAMBOURINE STAR (ML=4/1)
#7 SOUNDS LIKE POWER (ML=9/2)


THE BOSS SOSS - This gelding is in good form. Ended up second on February 14th. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is solid. Landry drops him in this race conditioned to win. TAMBOURINE STAR - This gelding is obviously on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 79, 82, 88 last 3 out. SOUNDS LIKE POWER - 80-84-90 are last 3 speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 YOCKEY'S DRIVETHRU (ML=7/2), #2 CARPIS (ML=5/1), #6 CHAD'S FLASHY WAYS (ML=6/1),

YOCKEY'S DRIVETHRU - This racer likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually win. Don't play in the top spot. Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. CARPIS - In the last affair this runner finished fifth. Doesn't show much potential for his chances in today's event. This gelding hasn't had any promising efforts in sprint contests in the last two months. Earned a substandard speed figure last out in a $20,000 Optional Claiming race on January 3rd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number. CHAD'S FLASHY WAYS - Will not be easy for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 THE BOSS SOSS to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10700 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BLUES RAPPER 12/1
# 9 RUN SMITTY RUN 3/1
# 4 PASSION OF JOE'S 5/1

I've got to go with BLUES RAPPER and the potential return justifies the very dangerous nature of the long odds. He has recorded very good numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this field. Has been running in the most competitive company of the field lately. Has to be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. RUN SMITTY RUN - McKinney has shown excellent profits (+20 return on investment ) with horses in dirt sprint events. Has performed soundly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 75 avg speed figure. PASSION OF JOE'S - Posted a solid speed figure last time out. He looks decent in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:07pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,600 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#7 SHE'S SO BEARRISH (ML=6/1)
#4 CHARGE NURSE (ML=7/2)
#1 PRINCESSOFTHENORTH (ML=3/1)


SHE'S SO BEARRISH - Stick with this horse. No other viable pace gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this racer is up against an easier field than last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Don't throw this animal out due to her last affair at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she ran sixth on a muddy track. Expect better today. CHARGE NURSE - The rider and handler combination have a lucrative ROI when they join forces. This mare's last rating registered on January 24th is tops in last race speed figures. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I think can be a vital selection factor. This horse is ranked numero uno in this field. PRINCESSOFTHENORTH - It looks like Gonzalez had to come to know this mare on Feb 8th when riding her for the initial time. Back aboard again today. This mare is in superb form right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 A NEW PEACE (ML=2/1), #3 SPECIAL BEACH (ML=8/1),

A NEW PEACE - You should normally wager against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. SPECIAL BEACH - Hard to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Finished first in her most recent performance with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 SHE'S SO BEARRISH to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None