Wednesday 3/5/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#5 Timesatappin	That two-back route run was pretty solid, and I think something like that might be enough to get him home at a somewhat playable price. Appealing enough.
#1 Gamboling Ghost	He can be tough here with his better stuff, but the route trip is a question at what I'm guessing is going to be a short kind of number on the board. Controlling pace in a small field can be dangerous.
#4 Falk	Not a whole lot to write home about on paper here, but he has a little bit of mild finishing form that might at least help him plug away for a piece.
Race Summary	Timesatappin may be just tactical enough to keep tabs on Gamboling Ghost, who is at least a little bit of a question to stay the trip even with a favorable race flow.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#3 Frac Amour	She ran well when rising in class last out, and she might find herself in a decent spot tracking the splits. In the mix again.
#4 Goldeneye Magic	She bounced back nicely with that easy score last time out, but now we get to see if she can back up a big run today or if she's going to step back off it like she did here in January. Overbet player?
#1 Spirited Ride	She finished ahead of the top choice when they met, and this one might get an OK trip while tucked in to save ground on the fence.
Race Summary	Frac Amour has come out of her late 2024 slump with a couple of improved efforts here lately, and her positional pace should have her in a spot to take a shot at Goldeneye Magic.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#9 Shortly	He might just be a bit too cheap for these -- his two allowance tries have both been bad -- but he goes second off the long break and had some fairly reliable form here last year.
#7 Honor the Cross	The Laurel form seems like an OK fit here, but I worry that he'll take a little bit of cash here while trying this local allowance crew. Obvious threat, but I worry about the potential risk/reward of the offering on the tote.
#6 Bigtonten	He looked solid enough graduating at Charles Town at second asking last year, and he's probably capable of something better than he showed on debut here. Think he can be ready to handle these off the brief break -- wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here.
Race Summary	Shortly is worth a look going second off the layoff today, and he's got a lot of room to improve off the dreadful comeback run.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#2 SHABAM (9-2)	Classy 9-year-old returns to winning level off two-month freshening.
#8 GRANDMA’S PUDDING (8-	Win and a second against better recently, one to beat.
#5 GREY PRINCESS (2-1)	Romped in four-horse field, makes third start of cycle.
Race Summary	SHABAM drops to her level of claim and last victory, when she was much the best in a $5,000 route race at Hawthorne. Today is the first day the $208k earner is eligible to run in this ‘non-winners of two in 6 months’ condition. Bet to win and place and play 2-5 and 2-8 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#8 LAURISTON (3-1)	‘Rank’ behavior resurfaced on lawn two back, best horse in field but high risk.
#6 STORMY DISCO (4-1)	Showed some grass ability as 2yo, gets Lasix and blinks after 15 months away.
#3 SMART BEAUTY (8-1)	Earned her top turf speed fig at 98-1 two starts ago, gets in light for new barn.
Race Summary	The 11 entrants in the main body of this one-mile race are a combined 18/0-1-1 on turf. LAURISTON was the beaten favorite in a $35,000 maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park two starts back on the lawn, but she broke poorly, fought jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. throughout and still finished willingly on the rail. If she minds her manners, she should graduate. Bet to win and place and play 8-3, 8-6 and 6-8 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6

#4 BREAK THE ICE (6-1)	Piling up the checks, improving his speed figures in the process.
#8 CATATUMBO (2-1)	Seeks third in row at this level since claim, another wide trip looms.
#2 DUNE ROAD (8-1)	Steps up off Bennett claim seeking repeat, ran well off similar rest in the fall.
Race Summary	BREAK THE ICE awaited room near the top of the stretch, had 3-wide aim on pace presser FROSTY THE SNOWMAN, but flattened out very late and ran second in a blanket finish. He has two wins and three seconds in his last seven long-distance tests, marked by ascending speed figures. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Trial • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 88 • Purse: $7,000 • Post: 1:05P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, (INCLUDES UP TO $1,000 LQHASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE 2025 MARDI GRAS OAKS TRIALS. FINAL PAYMENT MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $6,000 MUST ACCOMPANY THE ENTRY AND INCLUDES ALL FEES. WEIGHT: 126LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FRANNY B DOVE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. GOLDEN ANSWERR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance (sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. SAN LORENZO JEZZ: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fas t Break Style designation.
6	FRANNY B DOVE	4/1	5/1
3	GOLDEN ANSWERR	2/1	5/1
5	SAN LORENZO JEZZ	9/5	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MAMMAS ROYAL FLUSH	1	12/1	Average	85	78	4.0	0.0	0.0
2	JRS MAJESTIC GATOR	2	6/1	Fast	85	75	3.4	0.0	0.0
3	GOLDEN ANSWERR	3	2/1	Fast	90	86	2.7	0.0	0.0
4	MY LIL BLUE BEAUTY	4	8/1	Average	78	66	3.7	0.0	0.0
5	SAN LORENZO JEZZ	5	9/5	Fast	92	84	2.4	0.0	0.0
6	FRANNY B DOVE	6	4/1	Fast	88	90	3.2	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 5 ($.50 minimum) (Races 1-5)
SO $32,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 83 • Purse: $28,500 • Post: 12:40
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $32,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SINCE DECEMBER 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SKYLOFT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SKYLOFT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 da ys. CALL ME SUE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in T rackMaster Power Rating.
1	SKYLOFT	5/2	9/2
2	CALL ME SUE	9/5	5/1
6	MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SKYLOFT	1	5/2	Front-runner	72	73	83.6	69.7	58.7
3	ITS PIZZA TIME	3	5/1	Stalker	68	69	72.3	64.6	57.1
2	CALL ME SUE	2	9/5	Stalker	78	78	70.1	78.2	75.7
6	MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS	6	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	71	61.4	65.8	61.8
5	MY LUCKY ANGEL	5	8/1	Trailer	72	72	35.7	60.4	51.4
4	INDIE FREEDOM	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	76	88.9	55.8	47.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Gulfstream Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:30pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#6 REFINED HONOR (ML=6/1)


REFINED HONOR - The morning line odds on this colt are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of conditioner Orseno. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DRACULA (ML=9/5), #5 GETTIN' THERE (ML=3/1), #1 LOUD APPLAUSE (ML=7/2),

DRACULA - Don't figure that this less than sharp equine has what it takes to be victorious this time. GETTIN' THERE - Doesn't look to have enough good aspects to bear out the price. LOUD APPLAUSE - No picnic to invest in this pony today. Make him show you something in a sprint event before you play him in a race of 6 furlongs. This colt recorded a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 REFINED HONOR is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22300 Class Rating: 70

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN THE LAST 5 STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MULTIPLE WINNERS IN 2024 - 2025

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SUSHI Q 5/1
# 8 PRETTY PATTY 8/1
# 2 THE DEVIL'S DREAM 2/1

I favor SUSHI Q here. Is a contender - given the 69 speed figure from her most recent race. Has to be given consideration against this group of horses displaying solid figs recently and an average speed figure of 65 under similar conditions. Win percentage one of the top in this group. PRETTY PATTY - Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a wager for this race. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Salazarbecerra will most likely have this filly in excellent position to win the race. THE DEVIL'S DREAM - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This horse ranks at the top in this bunch. Has performed quite well as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 65 avg Equibase Speed Figure.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 UNION COACH 5/2
# 4 PINK ACE 3/1
# 6 FLYIN BY 6/1

UNION COACH appears to be the bet in here. Should be given a chance - I like the numbers from the last contest. She has put up strong figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this group. It's a good signal that Tamayo is using Americano on this one. PINK ACE - Could best this group of horses here, showing quite good figures of late. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turfway Park - Race #10 - Post: 10:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,400 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 UPTOWN TOM (ML=8/1)
#1 DECATUR STREET (ML=4/1)
#9 TIE BREAKER LENNIE (ML=15/1)


UPTOWN TOM - I think this gelding is very sharp right now. I like the fact that Quinonez brings him back to a race so quickly. When Bendezu and Quinonez unite on animals the return on investment has been fabulous at +241. DECATUR STREET - My experience tells me to watch out for this horse in this race TIE BREAKER LENNIE - Really have to believe this race horse is going to be close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PLUNDER (ML=7/2), #2 MIYAGI (ML=9/2), #4 EGYPTIAN QUEST (ML=5/1),

PLUNDER - Today's race is 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signals. Don't believe this mount will make an impact today. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure. MIYAGI - Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a short distance contest to be worth the risk at short odds in a sprint. EGYPTIAN QUEST - Difficult to put any dough on this gelding on the front end. Likes to end up on the board though. Can't wager on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race lately. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to garner a much better speed rating than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 UPTOWN TOM on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass