Friday 3/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 09:57 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 7, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 9-race card. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:25 PM PST)

4-Dancin Lance (5-1)-Battled well against this kind before dropping in class and posting an easy win. Steps back up, fits and should be tough to beat after an injection of confidence.
5-Unfiltered (5-1)-Had bumpy trips in the last 2 starts, finished well out of the money, and will look for an improved effort. Has 15 wins in 50 CalX races and could take a picture here but needs Aaron Lehman to work a smooth trip.
8-Alilthundadownunda (7/2)-Knows how to beat this kind and could be bet down. Also, has trouble at times finishing off a mile. Nick Roland is one of the top drivers on this circuit and could post a win if lands in a close-up seat off the gate.
9-Its Pointless (8/5)-Winner of 2 straight against this kind starts slowly and can finish in a hurry. Did just that in the last 2 starts from post 8, and will respect chances for a 3-peat.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

2-Captain Cosette (3-1)-This is another who needs to be racing at the top of the stack to win. Could get a suck-around trip and may not offer any value. Needs to be used and hopefully won't be over bet.
3-Cenalta Memories (4-1)-Gets a ++ driver change with Luke Plano getting the call and taking over for trainer Renee Goulet. Should be dialed on high and will look for an aggressive steer.
9-JK Cache Meoutside (2-1)-Comes off a nice win, rolled the back-half in .57 and that was the 3rd start on Lasix. Will bank on Nick Roland to provide a sharp steer, and if so, should be a main player.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

3-Allmyx'sliventexas (9/5)-Bumps up a couple of levels after drawing off by over 5 lengths. Comes right back, so does James Kennedy and looks like the one to beat off the last effort.
5-Reagan Blue Chip (3-1)-Finished 2nd to a well-meant winner and was used from post 7 when the wings folded. Landed in the pocket, but lost ground down the lane. The short field won't hurt, and could get the jump on the chalk. An upset is possible if lands on the point and John MacDonald can steal a quarter.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

4-Cal's Hope (5-1)-There is not much form to chew on and will land here with a veteran that was used hard into a quick pace. Gets s significant driver change to James Kennedy. Could offer a fair price and should be in the hunt with a smooth trip.
5-Hurrikane Bunny (8-1)-James Lackey takes the lines and that change could help. Will likely leave and needs to land in a close up seat. This is another who can be a player but must avoid emptying its tank in the early going.

0.60 Late Pick 4

4,5,8,9/2,3,9/3,5/4,5
Total Bet=$28.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 09:58 AM

Laurel Park Late Pick 4 for Friday, March 7

March 7, 2025 | By Frank Carulli

LAUREL PARK LATE PICK 4
Friday, March 7, 2025

Laurel Park’s Late Pick 4 this Friday, March 7, will hold added meaning for some horseplayers before it begins. Those who pick the winners of the two preceding races could be alive in the Jackpot Pick 6 that features a $9,548 carryover pool. Here’s a look at the Late Pick 4 with a suggested $36 ticket:

LRL 6th race (2:29 p.m. EST) -- THE WOLFMAN can be excused for a horror trip off the claim. He was sandwiched at the start, steadied several times on the backstretch and fanned 7-wide at the top of the stretch after making progress on the turn. He gets in light-weighted and should get first run on most of the field. IRISH HERO, the likely pace setter, shook a 3-wide duel through fast fractions in a 4-1/2F allowance at Charles Town two starts ago, only to get caught by his closest pursuer. LIEUTENANT BROWN took back to last in a two-turn sprint at Charles Town, rallied on the rail from the backstretch to top of the stretch and came up just short of reeling in pace-controlling winner Pink Dinghy (21/6-5-3, $118k).

LRL 7th race (2:59 p.m. EST) -- PENNY LOAFER tracked the loose leader until he was put to a drive midway on the final turn and held second despite not changing leads. The winner, Supreme Law, won by 26-1/2 lengths with a 100 Beyer in his race prior. MAD BANKER led throughout and dug in to beat a much weaker field than this, but he has license to repeat in a pace-less race for Ness, who is 98-for-327 the last 3 years with the second-off-the-claim angle. RUN FOR YOUR LIFE took back off the pace and rallied 3-wide on the turn to finish a distant second to next-out allowance winner Socially Awkward (5-10, $129k). He finished ahead of two other wire-to-wire winners in their next start with an average 70 Beyer.

LRL 8th race (3:27 p.m. EST) -- CHESAPEAKE DREAM, well-handled as a debut favorite, was content to track the loose leader, secured ‘command’ at the top of the stretch and dug in late under an all-out drive to prevail at 7F. SLAM NOTION ranged up on the favorite mid-turn and dueled to the wire, losing by nose after his jockey lost the stick. CHANGE MY WORLD, improved with blinkers and Lasix and was no match for SLAM NOTION, but he’s a viable longshot in a speed-laden field. FASTER GATOR beat four next-out winners at 4-to-5 odds in his 2-year-old debut, now makes his seasonal debut. He zipped 3F in :36-1/5 in his first workout after eight months away.

LRL 9th race (3:58 p.m. EST) -- KEY STAT faced 11 next-out winners in his first six starts, including Kohler’s ($171k), a winner of four straight. He rallied to finish second to the favorite in his last two go-rounds and could be the target today in a field that lacks speed. TELL ‘EM I’M COMIN finished in the money in four of his last seven starts on dirt out of town, now runs for the cheapest tag of his career for a barn in the midst of a 4-19 run with new acquisitions.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
LRL 6th Race: 5, 6, 9
LRL 7th Race: 4, 5, 7
LRL 8th Race: 1, 5, 6, 8
LRL 9th Race: 2, 3
Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 09:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #5

#2 Afleet Ascent	Think there is enough upside to take a look second off the layoff. There is some back turf form that might keep him in the frame, and the price could be OK with form that is a little bit cheap overall.
#1 Fit to Fly	I won't argue much with the recent form at this kind of level, and the previous form suggests turf won't be an issue either. One of the ones.
#4 Channel Won	Reliable type looks like the one to beat, and he fired fresh here last year off a similar fall layoff, so I'm expecting he'll be ready to roll and keep that consistent form intact.
Race Summary	Afleet Ascent is worth a midrange price look with a couple back turf races that inspire some hope, and he might find a cozy trip while saving some ground near the inside.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#2 Misterholyroller	Demand a price with spotty form all over the page, but that two-back run at this trip was the best one he has offered in a long time, and I'm hoping he'll get back to it today at a nice number.
#10 Cool Guitar	He took some cash and went evenly in the debut run at Delta, but that might set him up for a good trip while up close here. Think he might be well meant today.
#11 Doolgaroux	Not really sure what you're supposed to do with him, but he almost has to bring something better than he showed last time around. Price might be a little bit better, but the connections almost always ensure an underlay of some type.
Race Summary	#7 Wicked As Haggart could dunk on these while moving around two turns, but I worry that someone could come get him in the lane, and Misterholyroller might be the one finishing best into the long stretch.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#10 Legitimate Target	The local turf form is solid enough to give him a bounce-back look today, and I think he finds the right kind of spot while getting an outside spy.
#9 Now and Later	He has been tough when in with this kind and brings some finishing ability that might still give him a jump on the deep closing types. Wouldn't be a surprise.
#7 Cascade Cruiser	Could see him landing a piece against this crew, but I don't have a ton of confidence in him at this point in time. This kind of level is obviously a better fit for him.
Race Summary	Legitimate Target looks interesting enough with these while moving back to the turf, and he might be in a perfect spot to get first-jump on the closing threats.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 09:59 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#1 MOPO (8-1)	Separated from closers to finish a clear second to the fave in muddy debut.
#8 SILVER TRINKET (3-2)	Rallied for second in last pair at 6F, the first despite fractious gate behavior.
#3 YO ADRIAN (3-1)	‘Trinket’ stablemate is firing bullets for her debut for Team Russell.
Race Summary	MOPO took some money in her debut, rallied toward the inside from the far turn to the finish and was a clear second to the favorite on a muddy track. She draws the rail today and the same move should suit her well on the cutback to 6F. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-8 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#2 MAXIMUS SPEED (5-2)	Exits strong race, returns to winning level and distance, gets new pilot.
#5 PUTTHEPASTBEHIND (7-2)	Hit board in last two starts at this level, should sit ideal stalking trip.
#1 SUPER NEEDY (3-2)	Improving 4yo seeks duplicate of race two back to end bout with seconditis.
Race Summary	MAXIMUS SPEED was claimed out of a maiden win at this level, then back-pedaled in a higher-tagged 6F sprint. She met the likes of stakes-placed Wild Hunch and next-out $32k winner Rapidity, earning the call in this spot despite carrying 9 pounds more. Bet to win and place and play a 2/1, 5/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#1 J J VALENTIN (3-1)	Wide trip foiled 1-2-3 run in prior 6F races, could be forward factor from rail.
#5 BETTA GO GO GO (9-5)	Bumpy start ended run of seconds, will be on the go early, stands 1-for-20.
#2 DIVINE CHILD (5-2)	Added ground a plus, apparent lack of pace to rally into is the concern.
Race Summary	Take a cue from Maximus Speed, our pick in the second race, to get a better read on J J VALENTIN and DIVINE CHILD, two of the morning-line favorites in here. J J VALENTIN holds the tactical advantage and could sit just off of favorite BETTA GO GO GO, a proven fit at this level, while DIVINE CHILD should benefit from the extra furlong if he gets enough pace to run at. Bet on J J VALENTIN to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:00 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Maiden Claiming $27,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 27 • Purse: $9,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $27,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. COBERTURA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COBERTURA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ROSAMAR: Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
5	COBERTURA	2/1	2/1
1	ROSAMAR	3/1	3/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	COBERTURA	5	2/1	Stalker	34	29	27.9	27.9	24.4
1	ROSAMAR	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	32	27	20.4	20.4	17.4
4	AYALAS	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	32	9	4.8	4.8	0.0
2	SKULL LEGACY	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	19.0	19.0	12.0
3	NOELIA	3	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:00 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park
PURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 3	.50 Pick 3(Races 3-4-5)/$1 Exacta /$1 Trifecta /.10 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $25,200 • Post: 1:17P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * STUBBY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STREET COLORS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	STUBBY	3/1	5/2
2	STREET COLORS	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	STREET COLORS	2	8/1	Front-runner	61	59	67.2	38.4	29.4
4	BRAZILIAN QUEEN	4	5/1	Front-runner	67	51	52.9	42.8	32.8
6	MYFAVORITEHOLIDAY	6	7/2	Stalker	62	51	51.9	47.4	39.9
7	STUBBY	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	66	52.6	61.2	57.7
5	CHANNEL LAUNCH	5	4/1	Trailer	0	0	41.3	44.2	36.2
1	GIRLS DON'T CRY	1	10/1	Trailer	60	50	17.1	47.4	35.4
3	GRAZEN GATOR	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	64	50.9	41.8	35.8
8	ISABELLAELISE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.9	3.4	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 82

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HEXCEL 7/2
# 4 EL PERFECTO 5/2
# 6 CARTHAGE CAJUN 12/1

HEXCEL is the most respectable bet in this race. Concepcion has sharp numbers that point to this gelding to be a solid contender. This handler has done quite well as of late with entries racing at this distance and surface. Ought to be given consideration in this race if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last contest. EL PERFECTO - Could provide positive dividends based on quite good recent Speed Figures with an average of 82. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 83 - of his last race. CARTHAGE CAJUN - Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been respectable - 72 avg - of late. With one of the strongest jockeys in terms of dividends at the window, don't count this gelding out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:17pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#4 MUSICAL PRAYER (ML=7/2)
#6 VALHALLA VIXEN (ML=9/2)
#3 BELLE CHERIE (ML=5/2)
#11 TAKER BACK (ML=12/1)

MUSICAL PRAYER - Juarez and Rone perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +348 ROI for a rider and trainer. I like a pony that manages to finish in the money as often as this mare. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. Adding blinkers often leads to a better effort on the racetrack. VALHALLA VIXEN - Rode this horse on February 3rd and Bacon is right back in the irons today. The jockey and trainer combination have a profitable ROI when they combine forces. BELLE CHERIE - I like to play this handicapping angle, a racer coming back off a strong race within the last month. TAKER BACK - Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +79. This rider/conditioner duo has done well together over the last year. You have to really like that last race speed figure, 82, which is the best last race speed figure of this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 CHICA ARMA (ML=6/1), #10 MISS MIKOS (ML=8/1), #2 UP THE CREEK (ML=8/1),

CHICA ARMA - Unlikely for this entrant to make a winning move with no success lately in a sprint race. MISS MIKOS - Didn't come through as the favorite the last two times. Probably won't gain a victory today either. This filly registered a speed fig in her last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. UP THE CREEK - This filly hasn't had any in the money efforts in sprint contests in the last sixty days. 8/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when examining the most recent showings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MUSICAL PRAYER - Two claims in this mare's last two starts, make her a solid contender against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 MUSICAL PRAYER on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:01 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Coast To Coast

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $96000 Class Rating: 85

GP - R8 - RACE 8 FROM GULFSTREAM PARK. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $75,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $75,000 MAIDEN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 NEW YORK NEW YORK 8/1
# 5 GO JIMMY GO 10/1
# 6 BOUNDFORTROUBLE 7/2

NEW YORK NEW YORK is the top bet in this outing and could score at a price in here. He has been racing admirably lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Will almost certainly go to the front end and could never look back. With a formidable 81 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. GO JIMMY GO - Has decent Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. BOUNDFORTROUBLE - This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. With Lopez controlling the reins on him, this gelding should be able to break out early for this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-07-2025, 10:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,800 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#6 BULLY'S NOTION (ML=3/1)

BULLY'S NOTION - Brown gets a break on this animal carrying 6 lbs less than last out. Its possible this could make the difference in this field. Just look at her last speed rating, 62. That one fits well in this field. PP lines show this horse with three improving speed figs. Bocachica should be on a live horse in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GONE TO CARO (ML=2/1), #4 MISCHIEVOUS BROAD (ML=5/2), #1 I'M FLYING UP (ML=9/2),

GONE TO CARO - Don't think that this filly has value at 2/1 this time out. MISCHIEVOUS BROAD - Just don't figure that she is worth the risk at the likely odds. I'M FLYING UP - This horse will probably be pulling up the rear as this group crosses the wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 BULLY'S NOTION is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None