Friday 3/21/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2025, 10:54 AM

Scott Shapiro: Fair Grounds/Turfway All-Stakes Pick 5 Analysis

March 21, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

As part of the biggest racing days of the year at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, the two tracks are teaming up for a $1 All-Stakes Pick 5 wager. The 15% takeout bet known as the Bayou Bluegrass has a mandatory payout, gets started with the New Orleans Classic (G2), and concludes with the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9, Fair Grounds, New Orleans Classic (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9 Komorebino Omoide; 2 Hall of Fame
Backups: 7 Sierra Leone; 5 Touchuponastar

Forecast: The original field of ten is likely to lose at least a couple, but the 9-furlong affair for older handicap horses came up strong and marks the return of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner #7 Sierra Leone. The late running son of Gun Runner has run the fastest races and is the obvious class of the field, but there are reasons to avoid pushing all-in on the chalk. Not only is this his first race since early November, but it is not as if he was a win machine as a 3YO. Plus, as always, he will have to work out a trip from off the pace. His best beats these and improvement as a 4YO should be expected, but there are some solid horses in here that hold a recency edge and should get the jump.

One of those is #9 Komorebino Omoide. The Japanese-bred son of California Chrome has won just once dating back to last June, but enters his third start of the form cycle in the best form of his career. Trainer Robertino Diodoro takes the blinkers off his trainee, which hopefully helps him relax just a touch more. He fought hard to the wire in the Mineshaft (G3) when running on the wrong part of a racetrack that favored the inside and appears poised for his best on Saturday.

#2 Hall of Fame is the one that beat Komorebino Omoide last out. He rode a good rail, but did have to overcome a speed favoring surface to get to the wire first. The $1.4M FTS August 2022 purchase has rattled off 3 in a row and draws the rail again with #1 Kinetic scratching in favor of the Essex (G3) in Arkansas. He is probably the likeliest to upset Sierra Leone, but the tote board will show that. #5 Touchuponastar ran huge in this race last year when finishing second to Red Route One. The Jeff Delhomme trainee is likely to benefit from a couple of potential speed types opting for different spots. He is a serious Louisiana-bred that is capable if he has things his way early on.

Race 11, Turfway Park, Bourbonette Oaks
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 11 White Rocks; 3 Admit
Backups: 7 As Catch Can; 12 Will Then

Forecast: Unfortunately, I am not overly creative in this 50-points to the winner on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks event.

#11 White Rocks has done almost nothing wrong through three starts for trainer Arnaud Delacour. She was off a bit slow and caught four-wide early in her debut going one-mile and still found a way to finish third beaten less than two lengths. Since then, she has been great out of the gate and dominant on the front end. Expect her to be tough to catch under regular rider Victor Carrasco. If she is to get caught, #3 Admit is the likeliest to do so. The Claiborne Farm homebred was beaten by White Rocks last out in the Cincinnati Trophy, but she put in a good late run to miss by just more than a length. She comes in to this spot off of a couple of strong local works for trainer Tom Drury Jr.

I will use the Jonathan Thomas duo as backups. #7 As Catch Can needs to prove she can handle this all-weather surface and the ship from California, but stretches out to her preferred trip after chasing an odds-on favorite to the wire in a turf sprint at Santa Anita last month. #12 Will Then will have to overcome the challenging outside draw, but brings a two-race win streak in with her from last fall.

Race 11, Fair Grounds, Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Ahavah
Backups: 7 Good Cheer

Forecast: There is absolutely no question this year’s Fair Grounds Oaks goes through #7 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred comes into her second start as a 3YO a perfect 5 for 5 after besting 3 rivals in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in mid-February. She has passed all of her tests with flying colors thus far, but this is her toughest one to date. My main concern is her lack of improvement since her first two runs at Churchill Downs last fall. She may not need to improve in this one to keep her undefeated record intact, but at some point, she will.

#3 Ahavah will have to be a serious racehorse to handle this challenge in just her second lifetime start, but she could be just that. The half-sister to Vahva did not break great from the rail in her debut, but from there was quite impressive. This barn would not send her to the wolves like this if they did not believe she had a legitimate shot at handling it. She should get the jump on Good Cheer. Hopefully she has the stamina to get to hold her off.

Race 12, Turfway Park. Jeff Ruby (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Charlie’s to Blame; 9 Poster; 10 Maximum Promise
Backups: 4 Final Gambit; 5 Flying Mohawk

Forecast: #9 Poster is the deserving 3-1-morning line favorite after his third-place run in the Sam F. Davis on February 8. The Munnings colt rattled off three victories as a 2YO, all at two-turns for trainer Eoin Harty and put in a better than looks effort at Tampa Bay in a race dominated by John Hancock and Owen Almighty on the front end. The talent is there, but he has yet to compete over this surface making him tough to push all-in on.

#2 Charlie’s to Blame is one of several in the 2025 Jeff Ruby with a chance to spring the upset. Much like Poster, he has yet to compete over an all-weather surface. The difference is he will be a big price. The Blame colt has been a better horse since stretching out to two-turns and draws favorably to the inside. #10 Maximum Promise also is capable of putting forth a career best third off the layoff for Kenny McPeek. He did not have things his way in the Battaglia Memorial and has shown the ability to finish with energy going a route of ground.

#4 Final Gambit is definitely still learning, but he can run. His gate issues are likely to leave him with a lot to do late, but he could be making the final move. #5 Flying Mohawk is a wild card shipping in for Whit Beckman. The Karakontie colt has rattled off two in a row against lesser on the turf. He is very likely to get overlooked on the tote board and in this sequence.

Race 12 , Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby (G2)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Hypnus; 9 Instant Replay; 8 Furio
Backups: 7 Vassimo

Forecast: The biggest race of the afternoon drew a competitive field of 10 led by #1 John Hancock. The Brad Cox trainee got off to a late start to his career for a Derby horse, but has rattled off two victories in a row, including a wire-to-wire score in the Sam F. Davis. That effort certainly looks even better after runner-up Owen Almighty’s dominant win in the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this month. He draws favorably along the rail and gets Flavien Prat, but is going to have to earn it with several other speed types signed on.

#10 Hypnus is the horse I like most. The Into Mischief colt beat a field of well-meant maidens over the slop on Lecomte Day and then ran into ridiculous traffic when making a move in the Rebel (G2). He obviously has questions to answer still, so getting a fair price is imperative, but he has done nothing wrong thus far. #9 Instant Replay should also benefit from the likely race shape. The “other Brad Cox” showed a strong late run last time in his first start as a 3YO and appears to be ready for the class test. He ran by #8 Furio in the allowance event on February 17, but that was Furio’s first effort going a route of ground. He should move forward here for a barn that is 8 for 22 with a $2.63 ROI over the last ten days. #7 Vassimo gets blinkers after an odd run in the Risen Star (G2) as my top pick. I lean towards his late surge being more about those in front of him tiring, but improvement here is still well within the range of outcomes

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2025, 10:55 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 21, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has a 9-race card. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:57 PM PDT)

4-Treasure Horizon (2-1)-Drops to the lowest level of the meet and gets a new pilot in Nick Roland. Got on the engine in last and faded. This could be the time to work a ground saving journey and take a swing down the lane.
5-Aerial View (9/2)-Finished 3rd in the last 2 starts missing by a length and now faces a bit easier. Could offer a square price and best to not overlook against a soft bunch.
6-Rockin The Dragon (4-1)-There were excuses in the last 2 races, now could look to stalk and come off cover. One-move type needs to get a sharp steer from Brett Erickson.

Race 7 (9:22 PM PDT)

3-Frewil Dakota Sven (5-1)-Does have good gate speed to get a close-up seat and takes a meaningful drop-in class. Roland has won with the 10-year-old before, and it could be time to post its 2nd win of the year.
6-Sherwood (12-1)-Gets some post relief compared to the last 2 starts and has been leaving. There isn't much gate speed in this contest. Could get the top and stand tall to the wire against this group.
7-Winwood Jack (12-1)-Won last time but was DQ'd and did win the race before that. Probably won't be 12-1 but should be a fair price, and it's best to not overlook.

Race 8 (9:45 PM PDT)

1-Serene Hall (2-1)-Program chalk has taken only 3 pictures in the last 48 starts and the short price is tough to swallow. But has been facing better and cashing checks. May look to go gate to wire at a small price.
6-SD Eliminator (6-1)-Luke Plano will be aggressive and should have the veteran in play early on. The 8-year-old is worth a swing at the morning line price.

Race 9 (10:08 PM PDT)

4-Capt Jack Hanover (8/5)-Was in too deep facing straight Open company and drops to a spot to shine. Has beaten better recently and is a logical play.
6-Albergo Hanover (7/2)-This veteran has fallen short but is in at a competitive level. Could upset the program choice if Jim Lackey works a sharp steer and the Capt isn't dialed on high.

0.60 Late Pick 4

4,5,6/3,6,7/1,6/4,6
Total Bet=$21.60

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2025, 10:55 AM

Tampa Bay Downs Pick 3 for Friday, March 21

March 21, 2025 | By Frank Carulli

TAMPA BAY DOWNS LATE PICK 3
Friday, March 21, 2025

Fillies and mares will be in the spotlight in a trio of route races that comprise the Late Pick 3 at Tampa Bay Downs this Friday, March 21. A pair of one-mile turf tests drew full fields to start and end the sequence. Here’s a closer look and a suggested $1 Pick 3 ticket that costs $28:

TAM 7th race (4:00 p.m. EST) -- Proven turf form abounds in this $32,000 optional claiming race, as the 10 sophomore fillies scheduled to start are a combined 9-for-23. But ALTAMIRA SUR has clearly gone to the head of the class. She was a bit unsettled in the gate and bumped by an inner rival after it sprung open, but recovered strongly for her third consecutive long-distance victory. She backed off the pace under a snug hold into the first turn, swept quickly when asked for run 3-wide on the final turn and continued strong on the gallop out after she won going away. She is today’s solo play in the Pick 3.

TAM 8th race (4:35 p.m. EST) -- THAT’S MY CAT has never won on conventional dirt, but she runs for the cheapest claiming tag of her career and deserves a longshot look. She raced within striking range of front-end terror Paper Mansion (16-for-31) in three turf route races, disappeared in her first start this year, raced evenly off a fastest-of-45 workout against next-out repeater Pure Elegance (lifetime best 73 Beyer) and gained late for fourth behind the favorites last out. ONCE AN EAGLE won off the claim at this distance, sustaining a long rally to pass the free-running favorite and another rival who got first run at the lead. SEATTLE CAUSEWAY didn’t show her usual zip in her first start on dirt, but she still merits respect off her prior running lines and class drop for a 23-percent barn with the second-off-the-layoff types. MURUMBI is a six-figure earner with a 29/5-7-6 record at 1-1/16 miles and should get plenty of pace to run at from the rail.

TAM 9th race (5:10 p.m. EST) -- With room to spare on the ticket, go deep in the final leg. SARATOGA GAZE carried her speed to 1-2-3 finishes at the level in her last three starts, the latest on the main track. She is a must use on the ticket but offers little value. E M’S TREASURE GIRL was favored but couldn’t reach SARATOGA GAZE in that turf-to-dirt route race on a day when six winners went wire-to-wire. MEMPHIS SHOWBOAT lacked room from the 5/16s to the 1/8th pole and finished third behind a next-out repeater when last seen in the fall. LINNY KATE missed in a blanket finish the last time she ran on the turf in a race won by Up Her Sleeve (7-18, $150k on turf). TIMELESS ROSE took serious money but was rank and no factor at this level, but she’s worth using at an inflated price as the light weight in the field. RED WIND, a nine-time winner on grass, won twice at this level in December and finished a willing third in a 1-1/8-mile turf marathon recently.

Suggested $1 Ticket
TAM 7th Race: 2
TAM 8th Race: 1, 4, 5, 6
TAM 9th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
Cost: $28