Saturday 3/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2025, 08:08 AM

Meet the Contenders: Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park | Saturday

March 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

While its history dates to 1936, the last 20 years of the Arkansas Derby have given us some epic performers – Smarty Jones (2004), Curlin (2007) and American Pharoah (2015) chiefly among those. Saturday’s $1.5 million Grade 1 test matches local winners of the Smarty Jones, Southwest and Rebel against an upstart from the all-too-familiar Bob Baffert barn.

The Arkansas Derby includes a $10 money-back special from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Arkansas Derby (Race 13):

#1-BRERETON’S BAYTOWN: Eighth in the Rebel at 188-1 odds, this well-traveled colt from Kentucky makes a return trip to Arkansas. Owns wins at Charles Town and Laurel with Charles Town-based jockey Marshall Mendez and reunites with that rider Saturday for Paul McEntee.

#2-FIRST DIVISION: Last year’s duo with Arkansas Derby third-place finisher and next-out Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan – trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. – look for a return ticket. Son of 2019 Arkansas Derby winner Omaha Beach makes his stakes debut after a win, a second and a third from 3 starts at the current OP meeting.

#3-PUBLISHER: Late-running fourth-place finisher from the Rebel Stakes adds blinkers for the first time on Saturday. Trainer Steve Asmussen won last week’s Louisiana Derby with fellow Rebel Stakes alumnus Tiztastic. Asmussen’s 4 Arkansas Derby victories all-time trails on Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher with 5 apiece. Flavien Prat won this race 2 years ago aboard Angel of Empire. Son of 2015 Arkansas Derby winner and Triple Crown hero American Pharoah has yet to win in 6 starts.

#4-BESTFRIEND ROCKET: Back-to-back allowance winner at Laurel and most recently at Oaklawn since moving to D. Wayne Lukas’ barn. Lukas won the Virginia Derby 2 weeks ago at Colonial Downs with American Promise (with Nik Juarez also riding) and looks for a second potential Kentucky Derby qualifier. Lukas’ 2 Arkansas Derby wins came in 1984-’85 with Althea and Tank’s Prospect. Son of 2007 Arkansas Derby winner Curlin.

#5-SPEED KING: Front-running Southwest Stakes winner in January gets a third matchup vs. Arkansas Derby rival Coal Battle. Ran second to that one in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile by a half-length, but was no match when 15 lengths back when 10th last out in the Rebel. Ron Moquett teams again with Rafael Bejarano, who piloted Arkansas Derby winners Papa Clem (2009) and Overanalyze (2013).

#6-SANDMAN: The Southwest runner-up added a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, beaten a total of 2-3/4 lengths in races won by Arkansas Derby re-matched rivals Speed King and Coal Battle. $1.2 million Tapit colt was an allowance winner over the Oaklawn track in December and has won 2 of 7 overall. Mark Casse trained 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire and changes riders here to Jose Ortiz, coming off a runaway leading jockey title at Fair Grounds.

#7-MONET’S MAGIC: Fifth in the Southwest at 44-1 odds, the Good Magic colt bypassed the Rebel and enters freshened with a light workout tab for trainer Ben Colebrook. Local allowance winner in December over a wet track. Jockey Luan Muchado won last week’s Jeff Ruby at Turfway on the Kentucky Derby trail.

#8-COAL BATTLE: Riding a 4-race winning streak – all in stakes – the Smarty Jones and Rebel winner looks to remain perfect at Oaklawn. Trainer Lonnie Briley’s horse of a lifetime is comfortably in the Kentucky Derby field on points and has had 3 workouts with an extended, 9-day spacing between heading into the Arkansas Derby. He’s won 5 of 7 for more than $1 million and regular rider Juan Vargas returns from Louisiana.

#9-CORNUCOPIAN: Smashing debut sprint winner at Oaklawn on Feb. 23 during the Rebel Day undercard, where stablemate Madaket Road would later finish second. Madaket Road heads to the Florida Derby this week while this $1.1 million Into Mischief colt gets his class and distance test. Five-time Arkansas Derby winner Bob Baffert looks to follow Muth’s win last year and a sixth victory would surpass Todd Pletcher as the race’s all-time leader. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aims for his first Arkansas Derby win.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-25-2025, 08:09 AM

Meet the Contenders: Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park | Saturday,

March 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s 14 race mega-card at Gulfstream Park culminates with the most historically important Kentucky Derby prep race of them all. The Florida Derby has springboarded 25 horses to wear the roses in Louisville, most of any national lead-in – remarkable total for a race that didn’t debut until 1952.

The Florida Derby Day card includes a $10 money-back special from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third. What’s more? Also get a 15% winnings boost – up to $20 – on successful win bets in the Florida Derby.

Major multi-race pools throughout the card include estimated pools of $750,000 in the early pick 5, $1 million in the all-stakes late pick 4 and $2 million in the all-stakes late pick 5.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Florida Derby (Race 14):

#1-NEOEQUOS: Pacemaker held for third in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at 13-1 odds in his first start around 2 turns. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. won the 2022 Florida Derby with White Abarrio. Edgard Zayas rides for the first time as FoY pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. opts for Disruptor.

#2-COOL INTENTIONS: Two-time local winner did not factor when fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and comes off that Jan. 4 layoff while trying 2 turns for the first time. Jockey Javier Castellano won this race with Constitution (2014) and takes the call for Jorge Delgado.

#3-SMOKEN BOY: Recent $62,500 claim for trainer Cheryl Winebaugh likely will be the field’s longest price. Hasn’t replicated anything close to his Puerto Rican success in 2 starts in Florida, including an eighth-place effort in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.

#4-DISRUPTOR: Dominated maidens in his second start Marc 1 on the Fountain of Youth Stakes Day undercard by more than 9 lengths. $1.15 million colt by Pegasus World Cup winner Gun Runner. Trainer Todd Pletcher looks to pad his Florida Derby all-time record with a ninth win in this race, having won 3 of the last 4 and 2 straight. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard 2 of those (Known Agenda ’21 and Forte ’23).

#5-INDECISIVENESS: Ruben Sierra-trained longshot has 1 win from 4 starts and was a no-threat fourth in the state-bred Juvenile Sprint last November in his only prior stakes attempt. Recent third in 1-1/8 miles allowance behind Florida Derby return rival Jimmy’s Dailys.

#6-JIMMY’S DAILYS: Trainer Brian Lynch has Tampa Bay Derby winner Owen Almighty also on the Derby trail and gets a chance to see this local maiden winner and allowance runner in stakes company for the first time. Jockey Irad Ortiz hops saddles to Disruptor on Saturday, putting Joel Rosario aboard for the first time on this son of Vekoma.

#7-ENTERDADRAGON: Most experienced member of the field makes his 10th lifetime start, but just his second on dirt. Pulpit Stakes winner and Colonel Liam Stakes runner-up on turf didn’t factor when fifth on dirt last September in the Aventura Stakes. Jose D’Angelo trains and Dylan Davis takes the return mount on this $17,000 purchase who has bagged more then $103,000.

#8-MADAKET ROAD: Bob Baffert juggles 6 or 7 legitimate Kentucky Derby threats at this juncture, giving the Rebel runner-up and Lewis Memorial third-place finisher a rare roadtrip to Gulfstream. Blinkers come off this 3-time, stakes-placed colt by 2009 Florida Derby winner Quality Road. Tyler Gaffalione piloted 2022 Florida Derby winner White Abarrio.

#9-TAPPAN STREET: Trainer Brad Cox punched a Kentucky Derby ticket last Saturday with longshot Jeff Ruby winner Final Gambit and looks to further his hand. Lightly raced colt won his debut over this track Dec. 28 and was a good second as the favorite in the Grade 3 Holy Bull while tested for class and distance on February 1. $1 million son of Into Mischief skipped the Fountain of Youth by design to be fresh for the Florida Derby. Luis Saez won the 2019 Florida Derby aboard Maximum Security.

#10-SOVEREIGNTY: Back-to-back stakes wins, the Street Sense at Churchill Downs in September and the Fountain of Youth locally on March 1, have put this Bill Mott trainee on the doorstep of the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites. Godolphin home-bred by Into Mischief pairs again with Junior Alvarado, the only jockey he’s known in 4 prior starts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2025, 11:41 AM

Scott Shapiro: Florida & Arkansas Derby Day Spot Plays | Sat.

March 27, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

We got rolling with a pair of 100-point to the winner qualifiers last Saturday and things get even hotter this weekend on the Derby trail!

It is Florida Derby Day, as well as Arkansas Derby Day, which means two more chances at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s Triple Crown Money-Back Prep promotion. On top of getting up to $10 back on your Win bet if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd on the two big races this Saturday, we are also ponying up a 15% boost on your Florida Derby Win bet up to $20. Good stuff for one of the biggest races of the year in Hallandale Beach!

Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park Race 14

#10 Sovereignty is without question the deserving morning line favorite and the one to beat in this year’s Florida Derby (G1) after rolling by River Thames in his first try off a four-month layoff last out in the Fountain of Youth (G2). It is tough to knock the Godolphin homebred who has shown a strong late run throughout his career and has gotten better as the distances get longer. However, he will be a short price, so the fact trainer Bill Mott is 6 for 50 over the last 5 years with 3YOs making their second start off the layoff after a career best Beyer speed figure is a slight bit concerning. The 0 for 10-mark in graded stake routes has me looking elsewhere to take advantage of the Money Back Special.

#9 Tappan Street has only raced twice, but has done little wrong thus far. The $1M son of Into Mischief bested a field of 12 on debut going 7-panels and backed it up with a really good second to Burnham Square in the Holy Bull (G3). I am slightly concerned he will be caught wide much of the way, but he should be set for his best with this always being the goal for trainer Brad Cox. The aggressive Luis Saez has been aboard in both starts and gets the leg up again on Saturday.

Play: #9 Tappan Street

Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park Race 13

I do not often lean on short-priced horses in Derby preps and with Money-Back offers, but #9 Cornucopian appears to be more talented than his peers in this year’s Arkansas Derby (G1). The $1.1M Keeneland September 2023 purchase certainly faces a tall task winning at 1 1/8-miles against Grade 1 foes after just a six-furlong victory last month, but he might be special. Trainer Bob Baffert easily could have kept him in California and sent the more experienced Citizen Bull or Barnes to Oaklawn Park, but instead opts to send this Into Mischief colt back on a plane. The Kentucky Derby may be a big ask in his third career start debuting in late February, but he appears likely to get there after another wire-to-wire score in Arkansas.

Play: #9 Cornucopian

//

Forgetting about the undercard action in Hallandale Beach and Hot Springs would be a big mistake. These cards are both loaded. Here is a horse at each track that I will be focusing my wagering on:

Appleton Stakes, Gulfstream Park, Race 13

Much like, Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, #9 Major Dude is the clear one to beat in the final turf stake on the card. The Spendthrift Farm runner is the class of the field, has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5 starts over this course, and retains Irad Ortiz Jr. This will all be reflected on the tote board though and there is a chance he is going the wrong way after failing to finish the deal last out. I will try to beat him with #7 Seminole Chief. The Girvin colt has been a new horse since moving to the lawn earlier this year and showed the ability to relax when trainer Jack Sisterson took the blinkers off before his win over this course on March 1. He is sitting on his best. Hopefully that is good enough to best the dude.

Play: #7 Seminole Chief

American Pharoah Overnight, Oaklawn Park Race 11

There are three graded stakes races on the Arkansas Derby undercard, but I was more intrigued from a gambling perspective with this 8.5-furlong event for older runners. I respect the favorites #1 Bishops Bay, #3 Bendoog, and #7 Maycocks Bay, but they are far from unbeatable. Hopefully it is the day for #5 Full Screen. The Ontario-bred makes his second start of the form cycle after racing from off the pace against better in the Razorback (G3). He finished a well-beaten fourth, but was 68-1 and up against it on a day where speed was very good at Oaklawn Park. He will not be quite that price in this spot, but meets a softer group and should get a favorable mid-pack voyage under Ramon Vazquez.

Play: #5 Full Screen

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2025, 11:41 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 19 Stakes in 19 Sentences | Saturday, March 29

March 27, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Check the marquee lightbulbs for Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park this Saturday as the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby Day cards are packed. We’ll dive into those races as well as headliners at Santa Anita and Turfway.

Let’s get on the fast track to the weekend.

//

12:28 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 3 | $165K Cutler Bay Stakes
Tempo looks very manageable in this 7-1/2 furlong turf tilt for #5 Wakan and #9 Forged Steel to dictate things, while the former should be the more appealing price after chasing a front-running freak in the Colonel Liam Stakes.

12:57 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 4 | $165K Orchid Stakes
Not only does #2 La Mehana have a better draw than last time when third in the The Very One Stakes, but she lures Irad Ortiz Jr. and gets more pace help on paper for this 1-1/2 miles journey.

1:56 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 6 | $215K Pan American Stakes
Classy #4 Far Bridge could give trainer Christophe Clement a sweep of the 12-furlong turf stakes on the card as the Breeders’ Cup Turf alumnus looks to win fresh at Gulfstream in his seasonal return for the second straight year.

2:26 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 7 | $165K Ghostzapper Stakes
Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus World Cup winner #4 White Abarrio should roll by them late in his 1-1/16 miles tuneup for the Grade 1 Met Mile, but the sixteenth-pole finish line may help #2 Tuscan Sky or #6 One Sharp Cookie hold for the bottom of the exacta.

3:04 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 6 | $250K Matron Stakes
#4 Almostgone Rocket will be a short price to advance to 4-for-4, but she must reestablish her form and face a pace challenge from #6 Haulin Ice, which gives hope that #1 Benedetta can punch past late after just missing against the talented Justique in the Carousel Stakes.

3:31 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 9 | $250K Gulfstream Park Oaks
#4 Five G rates a very deserving favorite – off her Cash Run Stakes win here 2 starts back and a strong second in Oaklawn’s Honeybee when splitting accomplished fillies Quietside and Muhimma – and I’ll look to land #6 Cassiar second.

4:06 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 10 | $165K Sanibel Island Stakes
This meeting’s Ginger Brew and Hercomesthebride Stakes in this 3-year-old turf filly division both had absolute blanket finishes, so I’ll go for a fresh face in #8 Bunratty Manor off a very sharp first route bid and maiden win.

4:17 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 8 | $500K Oaklawn Mile Stakes
Perhaps reaching a bit here, but 20-1 morning line shot #5 Dimatic will get a very hot pace to rally into and his similar-style Steve Asmussen stablemate Red Route One had the kind of wakeup in last Saturday’s $500,000 Essex Stakes (coming out of the same race as Dimatic) that we’re looking for here.

4:40 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 11 | $165K Army Mule Stakes
#4 Knightsbridge has been working much stronger since his surprising return defeat than he did going into it, so expect the often heavily bet runner to turn the tables at 7 furlongs vs. Feb. 15 upsetter Inveigled.

5:00 pm ET | Santa Anita Park | Race 3 | $100K San Carlos Stakes
Odds-on favorite #1 Pilot Commander should punch out these 4 rivals, but #5 Vlahos has a chance to complete the exacta as the longest price in the morning line at 12-1 as he returns to his favorite Santa Anita dirt surface and draws cozily.

5:15 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 12 | $165K Sand Springs Stakes
A wicked pace projection here has me fishing for the best finisher and #6 Breath Away and #9 Buttercream Babe fit the bill on BRIS late pace figures, giving preference to the former on what could be a huge day for Christophe Clement.

5:32 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 10 | $145K Eclipse Overnight Stakes
I get it that #1 Get Her Number hasn’t run in a year and a half, but we’ve seen trainer Peter Miller work some wizardry with older sprinters and this 7-year-old has had Grade 1 credentials when he’s put together and appeals around the 15-1 morning line.

5:57 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 13 | $165K Appleton Stakes
Turf mile races in early spring often are havens for horses returning from long layoffs, and if the Gulfstream-loving #6 Abrumar can handle elders for the first time, he’s the key-box here with #9 Major Dude (solid favorite), #11 Ice Chocolat and #2 Fly the W.

6:12 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | $145K American Pharoah Overnight Stakes
Really like the early-late uncoupled Brad Cox combo here with #1 Bishops Bay gassing the other speed from the rail and #6 Liberal Arts picking up the late pieces for same-team exacta.

6:42 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 14 | $1 million Florida Derby
#9 Tappan Street has been pointed to the Florida Derby since nearly pulling off the Holy Bull on the rapid rise, and his workout tab twice besting elder, speedy class horse Saudi Crown tips him as my mild upsetter to #8 Madaket Road and likely favorite #10 Sovereignty.

7:02 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 12 | $750K Fantasy Stakes
Favorites #5 Quietside and #7 Simply Joking deserve top billing and the former has the local experience edge and beat arguably a tougher field in the Honeybee last out when besting Five G and Muhimma, who could be the favorites in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and Ashland in upcoming starts.

7:43 pm ET | Santa Anita Park | Race 8 | $100K Wilshire Stakes
Facing the likes of Cavalieri and Hope Road on dirt in recent starts could make this field feel like an opening act for #3 Alpha Bella, who has had more success on turf and finally gets back to what she does best.

7:48 pm ET | Oaklawn Park | Race 13 | $1.5 million Arkansas Derby
Not interested in any sort of gamble here as the Rebel alumni were in a race 5 full seconds slower the 3-4Q compared to the 1-2Q, while shameless top pick #9 Cornucopian could be any kind and run wild at a short price or hit a brick wall trying to add 3 furlongs off his dazzling maiden romp.

8:25 pm ET | Turfway Park | Race 6 | $125K Serena’s Song Stakes
#5 Long Neck Paula likely will be overbet off her strong 2-year-old dirt form for Wesley Ward, helping keep honest prices on unbeaten Tapeta performers #9 Bilyana (top choice) and #10 Bourbon Memory (certainly worth including).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2025, 12:52 PM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

March 26, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Florida Derby Day stacks the Gulfstream Park lineup with 10 stakes on a 14-race card that is anchored by the $1 million main event. First post is 11:30 am ET with the Grade 1 Florida Derby set for 6:42 pm ET. The supporting stakes include turf and dirt offerings across multiple racing divisions, but it's the 3-year-old fillies we'll highlight in the Race 9 Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. This $250,000 contest over 1-1/16 miles kicks off the Rainbow 6 at approximately 3:31 pm ET.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner THE QUEENS M G has the field's signature victory, while listed stakes winners include PARADISE CITY, WHATINTHELITERAL and FIVE G, the latter also Grade 3-placed. THE QUEENS M G consistently has kept the toughest strength of schedule.

Pace:
THE QUEENS M G, FIVE G and ANNA'S PROMISE figure to be prominent early in a race what typically favors early speed at Gulfstream. The 1-1/16 miles races have a short run into the clubhouse turn and end at the sixteenth-pole finish line.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-PARADISE CITY: First of 3 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees was no match for rival Five G when those two met in the Cash Run Stakes on New Year's Day, but since was a dominant allowance winner over this same track and distance. With Lasix last time (not eligible to use it Saturday), she earned a big 95 BRIS late pace figure and figures to be firing late.

#2-EARLY ON: Virginia Oaks runner-up for trainer Joseph is being asked back on 2 weeks' rest following a roadtrip to Colonial Downs. Her only victory in 5 starts did come over this track and distance in maiden company last month. Dylan Davis rode in that local win but opts for Cassiar in the Oaks. Would not be surprised to see her drop out of the field, but her 97 and 100 BRIS late pace figures in her last 2 could make her an exotics threat.

#3-THE QUEENS M G: WIn-early freshman season started with a Keeneland victory in April before being privately sold. She parlayed that into a pair of Saratoga summer stakes wins and those types often don't progress as 3-year-olds. Not with this Joseph trainee, who was a solid third in the Grade 3 Forward Gal before winning the Grade 2 Davona Dale on March 1. She's won 4 of 8 and will try a 2-turn test for the first time. Pedigree suggests it's within her scope and top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. returns. Should be faster early than the stablemates insider her and get a rail run.

#4-FIVE G: Versatile Vekoma filly has won around 2 turns on turf, 1 turn on dirt and finished second in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn around 2 turns on dirt. Her Cash Run Stakes win at Gulfstream was a dominant, 9-length score over Paradise City et al. Riders John Velazquez (riding the Arkansas Derby today at Oaklawn) and Irad Ortiz Jr. (opting here for The Queens M G) have departed, leaving Tyler Gaffalione with the call for George Weaver.

#5-WHATINTHELITERAL: Early developer like The Queens M G last year, winning the Astoria at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes Festival, but she failed to progress and lost her last 5 starts of the year to finish 1-for-8. Difficult comeback spot off a November break, but she has 6 workouts right on cue for the bid.

#6-CASSIAR: Least experienced Oaks entrant won her debut Feb. 8 at Tampa Bay Downs in highly professional style. Got a tough trip and education from post 10 of 10 in that sprint and now will be asked to stretch out. Sire City of Light won the Pegasus World Cup over 9 furlongs locally and there's a lot of stamina on the damside. Trainer Shug McGaughey typically is quite patient, so this is a bold move that should be respected. Dylan Davis rides.

#7-ANNA'S PROMISE: After dropping the first 5 decisions of her career, this daughter of Promises Fulfilled has won 2 straight. Trainer Carlos David claimed her for $50,000 in February and will put her into a tough stakes spot for the first time. Luis Saez rode to her local allowance score last time over the Oaks distance and returns. She's 2-2 with Lasix, but won't be able to use the medication by rule on Saturday.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FIVE G is proven around 2 turns, over the track against classier types than many of these.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
PARADISE CITY is one of a few here to run close to the same races with Lasix as without and should save every inch from the rail at 10-1 morning line.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta FIVE G over CASSIAR. $50 daily double FIVE G to #8 BUNRATTY MANOR in Race 10.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-29-2025, 11:17 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Jackpot Hi-5 Analysis

March 29, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, there is a mandatory payout on the Jackpot Hi-5 in Race 14 at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The wager is a 0.20 base bet with a 15% takeout, and there is a $131,002.73 carryover. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track, but as of this writing the weather forecast is not favorable.

Normally concerning weather, the chances of rain are not usually discussed in my analysis. The reason being my handicapping can take place well over 24 hours before race time. A few times in the past a wet track seemed likely, so it was mentioned. The issue is weather changes and attempts to be timely when writing so far ahead of the race turn out or be a fool’s game. In this case the weather forecast in Milton, Ontario calls for showers both on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully, the stats below will be of help.

Here are the off-track records for the horses that will be keyed:
#6 (9-2-0-1) #1 (20-3-3-7) #3 (15-5-4-0)

My ticket will key the 6-Rockabilly Rebel N (4-1) on top. The team McNair entry fits well with this group and could offer a square price. Won 2 back coming off cover and then bumped up. That night, stayed inside into a tepid pace and cashed a small check. Versus this group, Doug McNair should be rolling once the wings fold. Has the gate speed to clear and land in a close-up seat. Needs a trip, and with a 12-horse field that can be a challenge. But has a pilot that can give the veteran a strong chance to win by being in striking range at the top of the lane.

The next pair of horses, 1-Elliot Moose (10-1) and 3-All Bets On Tex (6-1) will be keyed in the 2-3-4 slots. Both horses are in good form and could win. My play will be to use them underneath and with a fair trip they should be able to finish 2-4.

There are infinite possibilities in a 12-horse field. One's bankroll and ROI requirements are parameters and are different for each person. The play below will provide good coverage and each ticket is $16.

Race 14 (11:45 PM EDT)

0.20 Hi-5

6/1,3/1,3/5,7,8,9,10/2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 for $16

6/1,3/5,7,8,9,10/1,3/2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 for $16

6/5,7,8,9,10/1,3/1,3/2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,12 for $16

Total Bet=$48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-29-2025, 11:18 AM

Scott Shapiro: Gulfstream Florida Derby Day Middle Pick 5

March 28, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

It is closing weekend for the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park, which means one more Saturday chance at the 15% takeout, retail only middle Pick 5 wager. As always it kicks off in Race 3 and this time includes four stake races and a competitive MSW for 3YOs. Big prices are not easy to find within the sequence, so keeping tickets thin and pressing up on your strongest opinion definitely feels like the right approach.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 3: Cutler Bay
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Forged Steel
Backups: 5 Wakan

Forecast: I have little interest in fading 5-2-morning line favorite #9 Forged Steel to kick off the sequence. The Vekoma colt should be poised for his best third off the layoff after chasing the fast pace of gate-to-wire winner Mi Bago last out in the Colonel Liam. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. turns to Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time. Irad should be able to stalk just off the early pace and handle a modest group of turf routers.

#5 Wakan offers the best chance at springing a minor upset. The Malibu Moon colt speed burnt a field of maidens to get Pegasus World Cup Day started in late January and was also caught in chase mode in the Colonel Liam. If jockey Edwin Gonzalez can avoid getting caught up in an early tussle, this colt has a shot to earn his first stakes score.

Race 4: Orchid (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Beach Bomb
Backups: 1 Silvology

Forecast: Trainer Christophe Clement has won the Orchid (G3) eight times and hopes to make it nine with 8-5-morning line favorite #2 La Mehana or European import #4 Sacaya. La Mehana makes plenty of sense since she has hit the board in all four starts over this course and won 7 of 20 overall, but she has struggled to seal the deal with authority since arriving in North America. The Lsu Stables mare will likely be there again at the wire, but I do not trust her to get there first.

I prefer second choice #6 Beach Bomb. The 5YO mare gave trainer Graham Motion one of his very few victories this winter in Hallandale Beach earlier this month in the Very One (G3). It was jockey Luis Saez’s ability to get this gal into the race early and control the tempo that made the difference. The South African-bred is classy and should be tough to by late once again.

#1 Silvology gets a class test for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, but has been at her best since stretching out to these “marathon” type of distances to start her 4YO season. She has rattled off two in a row against lesser, retains the services of jockey Dylan Davis, and will provide separation since most horseplayers will likely live and die with one or both of the favorites.

Race 5:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 X Y Prime; 6 Mainstream
Backups: None

Forecast: I landed on a pair of logical runners in this 7-furlong MSW affair for 3YOs with my top choice being #4 X Y Prime. The $250k September 2023 purchase ran a better than looks third on debut when he battled early and tried hard to the wire going 6-furlongs on February 8. Trainer Jorge Delgado has given him seven weeks and stretches him out a furlong. The experience gained first out could end up being the difference.

#6 Mainstream lacks experience, but appears to be training forwardly heading into his first start for trainer Brad Cox. The $485k FTS August 2023 purchase posted a bullet 4-furlong drill in 49 flat at Payson Park on March 9 and appears more than ready to fire big at first asking. His dam, Lesley May, is a half-sister to $1.06M earner Uncaptured. He is my preference of those making their first lifetime start.

Race 6: Pan American (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Tawny Port; 4 Far Bridge
Backups: 1 Corruption

Forecast: In Christophe Clement I trust in this 10-furlong Grade 3 event over the lawn. #4 Far Bridge is the obvious Clement trainee. The son of English Channel makes his first start since a less-than-ideal voyage in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last fall. His best beats these and he is a perfect 3 for 3 over this course, but at the same point this is far from the ultimate goal, he is going to be a short price, and he will have to work out a trip as always.

His stablemate #5 Tawny Port also makes his first start of 2025. He has struggled to win races of late, but has been competitive. I found it intriguing Dylan Davis is onboard him instead of #1 Corruption. I am almost sure it is a commitment to the Clement barn by Davis, but perhaps the “other” Clement can help us gain some major separation within what could be a formful sequence.

Race 7: Ghostzapper (G3)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 White Abarrio
Backups: None

Forecast: Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner #4 White Abarrio makes a somewhat surprising start in this Grade 3 event at 8.5-furlongs, but obviously stands out. One could make the case the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee will be nowhere near cranked for this and that he has thrown in some clunkers, but even his B- game should handle this bunch. With two months rest, look for the $6.8M earner to stalk early and pull away late under regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-29-2025, 11:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#2 Mrs Worldwide	Really like how she handled the move to the turf last time out when staying well in Grade III company, and she should find another great spot while right up on the splits today. Would be thrilled at the 4/1 ML price.
#1 Candy Quest	She made a nice move to the lead and then held in that route debut, and I think she might trip out from the fence for a share even if I'm guessing she'll find one or two of them a bit too tough today.
#3 Love Cervere	Her first two have been pretty sharp, and I wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here. She has reasonable upside and caught a very well-meant winner last out. Dangerous today.
Race Summary	Mrs Worldwide has always had a little bit of quality about her, and she proved that when landing a share in a graded stakes spot last out. Tough today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #12

#3 Vina Arana	Loved her Saratoga score last season, and she's meeting a group today that doesn't have a ton of super compelling finishing form in it. Hoping a couple forward players will just ensure the tempo is fair for her.
#12 In Our Time	She has been staying well after flashing pace in a couple of tough spots, but I worry that she has to hustle a bit from out here and meets a couple of potential minor thorns in her side drawn at the fence.
#8 Autumn Evening	She's got that versatile kind of pedigree that makes you think she'll handle the turf even if she doesn't move way up on the new footing. Tactical speed fits OK here if she tolerates it.
Race Summary	Vina Arana was sharp last summer when rallying at Saratoga, and we may get an OK price as she steps up from that graduation run to meet some graded stakes droppers.

Gulfstream Park - Race #14

#8 Madaket Road	The Oaklawn races have already come back OK, as have the California races, so I think this guy is bringing a fairly hefty resume with him despite finishing underneath in recent starts. Spy and finish score.
#9 Tappan Street	He moved and stayed well when taking that big step up into Grade III company off the debut score, and any reasonable upside from there would make him a player to land this.
#10 Sovereignty	He's the right one on paper after handling a lot of today's main threats in the Fountain of Youth, but I'm just wondering how far back he'll have to tuck in to avoid losing ground on the first turn. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
Race Summary	Madaket Road should find a good spying spot behind a couple quicker players early, but I think that gives him the jump on Sovereignty either way to land this.

Oaklawn Park - Race #9

#11 Spurgeon	Taking a bit of a reach here, but he's got some occasional finishing form on his page and is meeting a handful of stretchout types who have pressing pace, and that could lead to at least a fair set of splits for him to chase. Would love to see a couple of them make early middle moves and let this guy get last laugh.
#3 Zero Sugar	Solid debut run from him should set him up for a competitive effort today, and he seems like the forward player most likely to settle just a touch off it and get first jump to score.
#4 Oy Gevald	He showed some pace and stayed when stretching out, but I worry that a couple stretchout types will keep him honest today if he wants to show speed again. In the mix.
Race Summary	Spurgeon might like this longer trip while meeting a few sprint types who might not see out the distance. Price should be right to see if he can plug along late to land this.

Oaklawn Park - Race #12

#1 Take Charge Milady	Willing to toss that last one -- she had a tough go there and is obviously capable of something better. She's in the mix if she's still moving in the right direction.
#5 Quietside	Still not much wrong from her since the very start, and she finally got her graded win in the local prep for this last out. Admire her consistency and expect her to show up again.
#7 Simply Joking	She might be the real deal, but she has also managed to avoid the REAL deal in New Orleans in Good Cheer -- let's see what she's made of in this deeper group today. Respect her talent.
Race Summary	Take Charge Milady figures to bounce back here and seemed to be progressing nicely before the last one. Midrange price.

Oaklawn Park - Race #13

#5 Speed King	Southwest winner got a little flattery when Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby last weekend, and I wonder if he can bounce back today after tracking the pace and fading here in the last one. Could control the tempo if the Baffert on the outside doesn't get a clean start.
#9 Cornucopian	Respect the sharp debut and connections, and he's not meeting a ton of super serious pace in this spot. Dangerous and logical threat to wire them if he breaks well.
#3 Publisher	He is still eligible for a maiden spot, but he's got fairly reliable finishing form and figures to at least appreciate this trip more than most.
Race Summary	Speed King has some pace in a race that only has one other serious speed horse lined up, and I'm hoping that will help him stick around today at a big price after a clunker last out.