Sunday 3/30/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2025, 12:23 PM

Scott Shapiro: Gulfstream Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Analysis | Sun.

March 30, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

After a fun final Saturday of the Championship Meet led by Tappan Street’s win over Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (G1), the Rainbow 6 Pool must go this afternoon. With $288k in carryover money, track officials are estimating a Closing Day pool of around $3M. Hopefully we can end the meet with a bang!

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Free to Roam; 1 Wink of an Eye; 12 Arisaema
Backups: None

Forecast: This non-winners of two over the lawn that kicks things off is no picnic, but I am willing to fade the two ML choices. 5-2-favorite #10 Carrington was caught wide throughout last out against slightly better, but draws outside again. Trainer Gustavo Delgado turns to the apprentice Micah Husbands, who is unlikely to make a positive difference. #5 Gimme Mo Baby should get the right trip, but has shown very little will to win. She got a great voyage last out under Dylan Davis, yet still failed to hit the board. You can have her at 3-1.

#8 Free to Roam is a must use given the likely honest early tempo. She has not raced since last September, but when trainer Steve Klesaris turns to Irad Ortiz Jr. he means business. They have clicked at 20% over a 112-start sample size for an impressive $2.29 ROI. I will also include longshot #1 Wink of an Eye. The full-sister to $616k earner Lure Him In has to prove herself over the sod, but should get a perfect ground saving trip under Luca Panici. #12 Arisaema also has the right running style, but has to overcome the far outside draw. Her maiden victory came over this turf course. She could be making the last move.

Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Only in America
Backups: 6 Shangrala Road

Forecast: This two-turn MSW event for 3YOs is a lot less exciting from a gambling perspective because it appears to be a two-horse race between the two favorites. #6 Shangrala Road was made the 8-5-favorite by oddsmaker Brian Nadeau off of his well-beaten second to Disruptor going 7-furlongs on debut. A move forward is expected, but I prefer second choice #4 Only in America. He has two routes already under his belt already and ran over a goofy inside speed favoring surface at Fair Grounds last out. I have been high on this horse throughout the winter and will be disappointed if he does not put forth a big effort this afternoon.

Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Top Recruit
Backups: 2 Billy the Greek; 3 Bold Looker

Forecast: There is not a ton of speed signed on in this $6250 open claimer at one-mile over the main track. This should benefit #9 Top Recruit most. The 5YO gelding is one of two entered for leading owner Ken Ramsey and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. He has far more dirt experience than his stablemate and will be a better price.

His barn buddy #2 Billy the Greek is the morning line choice and handles these with his best over the all-weather, but he has never raced over a fast main track making 2-1 tough to get excited about. #3 Bold Looker has recent dirt form for a hot barn, but finished a non-threatening third last out despite being on the right part of the racetrack. I do not trust him either, but a repeat of his last could prove to be enough if the pace is hotter than expected.

Race 10:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Dancing On Our Own; 4 Counterintelligence; 2 Mildred Pierce
Backups: None

Forecast: I have little interest in 7-2-morning line favorite #3 Restless Dreamer or 4-1-second choice #9 Annulled in this MSW event for 3YOs and upward over the grass where I like #5 Dancing On Our Own best. Trainer George Weaver has been making all the right moves of late winning with 6 of 21 over the last 30 days. Weaver stretches this daughter of Cairo Prince out to two-turns after she had no shot when breaking slow and caught wide throughout in a 5-furlong dash in mid-February. A move forward is definitely likely. Hopefully it is good enough to get it done at what should be a playable price. I will also include the well-bred first-time starter #2 Mildred Pierce and the Chad Brown trainee with experience #4 Counterintelligence.

Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Ejtimaa; 1 Soulmate; 7 Alley Oop; 8 Honesto
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be contentious in the final race of the meet over the all-weather given the presence of #5 Lamplighter Jack and #6 K.C. Chief. #1 Soulmate and #7 Alley Oop Johnny are amongst those that should get first run on the speeds. They are must uses, but I will also include a pair of prices in #4 Ejtimaa and #8 Honesto. Honesto has 5 wins over this course and should get a favorable outside stalking trip. Ejtimaa ships in from Tampa for owner/trainer Mike Dini. He has won 5 of 12 and will benefit immensely from a fast first half mile.

Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Baby Lala; 1 Bit of Frost; 5 Keepthedreamalive; 6 Big Magic
Backups: None

Forecast: The meet concludes with a MSW on the sod for 3YO fillies where #12 Obeissante may be bred to move forward on the stretch out and surface switch, but is tough to endorse at 5-2. She did minimal running on debut, which is forgivable, but drawing the far outside post makes her task a tough one. I will use several in hopes of besting the Wertheimer Et Frere homebred, including 15-1-shot #3 Baby Lala, who had no shot last out when caught wide throughout and against the flow and #1 Bit of Frost, who aims to give trainer Vickie Oliver her first win of the meet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2025, 12:24 PM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 30, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park starts the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

2-Irresistible Son (5/2)-Won the race it was claimed in 3 back. Then doubled up going gate to wire against Open Handicap company. Landed at this level last week and drew the 8-hole. The trip was bumpy that night and didn't cash a check. Should be dialed on high drawing the 2-hole in a race without much gate speed. This is a spot to land on the point and not look back. Did hit the board in 7 of 10 races at Nfld and has taken 4 pictures.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

4-Heavensdor Hanover (5/2)-Faced Open Handicap company in the last 2 races. Battled hard against better, now drops to a more comfortable level and should relish the company. Likes to race at the top of the stack and Justine Irvine can work that type of trip. This is another who could go gate to wire.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

3-Catch Me Conrad (6/5)-This will be the 2nd race at Nfld since shipping back from Miami Valley. Takes a good drop in class, hasn't been in this cheap in quite a while. Conrad has won over 20% of his starts at Nfld, and the veteran took 12 pictures last year. Aaron Merriman gets the assignment and comes right back in 5 days. It looks like the race goes through the veteran.
7-Dragon R Fearless (4-1)-MVR invader should fit nicely with this crew. Recent form has slipped but has hit the board in of 2 of 3 at Nfld and has posted 1 win. Does have enough gate speed to get a decent seat early on and could be overlooked at the windows.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

2-Jim Blue (2-1)-Kreiser trainee drew off by over 5 lengths in last and that was its 2nd straight score. Will respect chances of another win with this post draw. Comes back at the same level but this is probably a stronger field, so hopefully won't be over bet.
4-Patrikthepiranha A (7/2)-Thestable entry drops to face the same kind as its last win on 3-9. Was in the deep end in the last 2 starts but has no excuse to not be a main threat with a clean trip.

$5.00 Late Pick 4

2/4/3,7/2,4
Total Bet=$20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2025, 12:24 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #6

#2 War To Remember	The only turf try wasn't much, but that try came going long and stands out as the only poor try on his page. Willing to see if he likes this kind of turf sprint trip.
#1 Decapo	Firster looks to have landed in what won't be the deepest field we'll see at this level, so get a look at him ahead of this on the tote and track.
#7 King Stephen	He showed a little bit of late interest on the dirt in the debut, and he's bred to handle the new footing and trip. Wouldn't be a shock.
Race Summary	War to Remember is quick enough to be in the mix early in a race without a ton of early speed -- think he's worth a look while trying this trip for the first time.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#8 Lonesome Stew	He draws well on the outside to let a couple quicker players settle the early score, but he can still get a good spy-and-finish trip that gives him first jump on the finishers.
#2 Lovesick Blues	Not sure he's going to be able to repeat it right back, but he wasn't far off the winner in that Grade III last time out and could be a handful if he can bring something similar.
#1 Kings River Knight	Cutback player has run well at this trip before, and he might get a pretty dreamy run of things from the inside in a spot with some fairly serious sprint pace players likely to show speed and cross over.
Race Summary	Lonesome Stew could get a really good run of things here from the outside while tracking the splits, and I could see him offering an OK price in a competitive group.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#6 Strutting	Reliable finisher caught an in-form winner last time out when dropping out of a deep Grade I, and I think her recent baseline is probably going to be good enough to land this one.
#7 Public Assembly	She should find a good spot up close in this one, and she'll likely get the jump on a couple of the capable closers. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here off the layoff.
#8 Esmeray	There are a couple decent races on her page as she makes the North American debut off the bench, and she could come back fresh with something better after tailing off at the end of her 2024 campaign.
Race Summary	Strutting figures tough with one of her better tries, and I'm hoping Esmeray will be a midrange price to get in the frame as well.

Hawthorne - Race #2

#4 Katelyn's Mess	Not much on form from her, but this race could very quickly turn into a battle of attrition as everyone tries to chase, and she at least got past horses once in her career. Maybe she plugs past the rest?
#5 Illy Simz	She has never been in this easy and has a little bit of pace -- it might be that simple -- could put this away easily if she can find the front at some point.
#6 Last Gasp	Her outside pace at least keeps her in the frame early, and maybe she can press and make an early move to land this.
Race Summary	Katelyn's Mess is in dull form right now, but she once showed the mildest finishing ability, and that kind of effort could make her a player here at a decent price.

Hawthorne - Race #3

#4 Regained Power	Interested to see how he gets bet compared to his stablemate outside, but you know this one has some sharp pace, and maybe he can do something better with it today after struggling a bit in the debut run and stopping. Might run these off early.
#1 Mondogetsbuckets	He has faced much better groups in those two Churchill starts than he's going to find here, so he's a danger on the company lines alone even if he hasn't shown a ton yet.
#5 Viva Del Corso	He goes first out for a team that wins a lot of races like this with debuters -- take a look ahead of this one. Wouldn't surprise in a short group without a ton of depth.
Race Summary	Regained Power flashed brief turf pace and stopped in the debut run in New Orleans, but he was live on the tote that day and lands in a much softer spot at second asking. Could see him airing.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#4 Malibu Finale	Not totally sold in a soft race, but I think he might get a decent run of things while behind some quicker players early. Dropper could wake up.
#1 Heartbreak Game	Nothing on the page to get excited about, but he drops while returning with Lasix and could move forward enough to land a piece of this at a price.
#7 Tie Breaker Lennie	He has had a lot of chances, but he's going to be tough if he can repeat his last -- that basement race at Turfway saw the runner-up graduate here Thursday. Obviously capable, but not for me at a likely short price.
Race Summary	Malibu Finale has some room to wake up today while trying this kind of group for the first time, and he's probably tactical enough to avoid being totally outrun from the start.