Tuesday 4/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#4 Twice Shy	His one-paced kind of style might play well here, and he should get a really good run of things tracking the guy drawn just inside.
#3 Breeze the Bayou	His form fits, but he has had a lot of chances already and tends to give away ground in the stretch. Capable, but think he's vulnerable.
#2 Tearaway Tom	He's an obvious threat while cutting the tag off those Tampa tries, but he'll probably get bet and took a step back in his second start. I don't know...
Race Summary	Twice Shy looks the part here with another grinding type of effort waiting for him while tracking the pace -- think it's graduation day for him.

Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#5 Sharp Az Can Be	Tons of respect for the filly drawn just inside of this one, but I think this outside pace is going to be dangerous and could potentially leave that chalk in a tough spot.
#4 Goldeneye Magic	No arguments from me here but the price -- she's pretty legit. She'll be in the mix early with the top choice, but I worry that she could get a slightly tricky run depending on how they sort themselves out of top.
#1 Candymonium	She showed a little life on the cutback last time out and could come along late for a slice while saving ground inside.
Race Summary	Sharp Az Can Be might have aggressive enough pace to make things difficult for Goldeneye Magic, and I'm hoping she's a mildly playable second choice.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 Swing State	Route pace turns back for this one, but he has been quick enough to stay close in previous sprint tries and might get an OK run of things from the inside in a race without a ton of super-serious pace.
#3 Kinderhook	He's a pretty honest finisher who fits with this group, but I worry that he's going to give the top choice the jump early and wind up with too much to do.
#5 Sammy and Shorty	Popular claim gets another chance at this kind of level, and he wasn't overmatched with similar earlier this year. Enough to like.
Race Summary	Swing State is probably a bit better going long, but I don't feel like this is the deepest local race for the level, and the trip might be there for him from the fence.

Parx Racing - Race #3

#6 Carnaby	Liked his last a little bit when second behind an easy winner, and he should find a good tactical spot while getting back around two turns.
#3 Captain Crush	He hasn't been able to stay late in any of his three starts, but he should be in a decent position to get the jump on anything coming from off the pace. Seems vulnerable late again.
#7 Sunny Magic	Not a ton of enthusiasm for me here, but there are a couple lines on his page that would keep him in the frame with these, and he has yet to find a spot this easy. Maybe.
Race Summary	Carnaby should get the run of the race against a pretty modest crew, and I like the way he woke up last time out -- think that should translate well today.

Parx Racing - Race #8

#8 Alchemism	Toss the two route tries on his page and you're left with some pretty compelling sprint form. Perfect tracking trip should be waiting for him from out here.
#7 Cojelo Pa Ti	He finished in front of the top choice in that last one, and his dangerous pace should keep him in the action from the start again here. Very possible he lands a fourth straight score today.
#4 Sircharlybrown	He has some proving to do while stepping up off the claiming score, but I liked the forward move at second asking, and another step in the right direction would keep him in the mix here.
Race Summary	Alchemism is a strong lean today with a perfect outside spy in store for him. Hoping he'll offer a playable second-choice price.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#5 Eloquist	The recent form fits, and he figures to get a fair enough setup again today. Mild worry about the price getting short, but I could see him being a handful today.
#6 In Spades	Feels like one of these two will land it -- this one should get the jump with a bit better early speed in his corner. Could be convinced if the price got too short up top.
#2 Deposition	No clue which guy will show up, but one of his better tries might put him in the picture while overlooked on the board. Feels like one of the ones, but he probably needs a couple misfires to land it.
Race Summary	Eloquist and In Spades look tough to get past in here, but I think the former should get the right run from behind the quicker players early.

[ConleyPicks]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#4 BABA’S BABY BOY (6-1)	Big effort in seasonal debut, alert start key with an extra furlong to travel.
#5 HOTTAKEJAKE (7-2)	Can make good use of his speed in this field on the class drop.
#9 FIRSTFLASHOFMOON (5-2)	Rallied for pair of thirds after barn switch, adds blinkers.
Race Summary	BABA’S BABY BOY awakened off a 10-month layoff and rallied between rivals in a crowded field to finish second. He had another rough start in a well-bet follow-up try at 6F and was no factor. Give him the nod on a win and place bet in his first long sprint attempt today. Also play a 4,5/4, 5, 9/ALL trifecta.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:07pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,100 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 MILANO (ML=3/1)


MILANO - I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a nice race within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RICHIESGOTGAME (ML=6/5), #2 CANDY INVASION (ML=7/2), #6 KRUG (ML=8/1),

RICHIESGOTGAME - This favorite ran on February 26th and hasn't had a morning drill after that. Tough to put your money on this oft beaten chalk. Not much value. CANDY INVASION - This come from behinder will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make an impression in this event. KRUG - Difficult to wager on at 8/1 odds after the two most recent showings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 MILANO to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 101

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 NON-WINNER OF FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 AZ BRED CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SBAGLIATO 9/2
# 2 NEON LIGHTS (IRE) 7/2
# 7 SANGER 2/1

I think SBAGLIATO is a quite good choice. His 93 average has this gelding with among the most competitive Equibase Speed Figs in this event. Has some interesting angles which make this entrant a play. Is tough not to consider given the company run in lately. NEON LIGHTS (IRE) - Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been competitive - 88 avg - of late. A nice return on investment of +4 with this jock and trainer duo. SANGER - Ran a very strong last race. Peery has this gelding racing well and is a very good selection based on the very good speed figures garnered in route races recently.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Will Rogers Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#5 BOSS ON THE RUN (ML=4/1)


BOSS ON THE RUN - Ran last out against a higher rated class of horses at Oaklawn Park. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another indication that this horse has class.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MAUI MISTRESS (ML=5/2), #2 MEDICINE SHOW (ML=3/1), #6 I BILEVE (ML=4/1),

MAUI MISTRESS - This horse didn't do much for me last time out finishing fifth. Don't see any hint of improvement today. Today's affair is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last couple of months. Not the best of indicators. MEDICINE SHOW - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a short distance event to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint. I BILEVE - Didn't finish in the money on March 18th after the long vacation. Be doubtful of this horse in today's event. This mount likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't put in the top spot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 BOSS ON THE RUN to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TAVIN 10/1
# 7 PEARLS AND HEELS 6/1
# 8 TEMPEST RISING 4/1

TAVIN is my selection particularly if the morning line of 10/1 holds. I like the jock on this filly - competitive chance to win the race. Over time, this conditioner has a quite good return on investment at this distance/surface. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 83 - of her last outing. PEARLS AND HEELS - Hawthorne has shown excellent profits (+25 ROI ) with horses in dirt sprint events. TEMPEST RISING - Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this horse a contender.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 82 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 12:55
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD CERTIFIED ARIZONA BRED OR BY ONE OF THE NOMINATED STALLIONS WHICH REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE TRIALS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (CONTACT AQRA FOR SUBSCRIPTION DATES AND FEES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FOUR SWEET KID: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. FANCEY LIKE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KJ FLASHY GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	FOUR SWEET KID	6/5	3/1
5	FANCEY LIKE	4/1	6/1
4	KJ FLASHY GIRL	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SCREAMING EAGLE SP	1	12/1	Average	69	64	5.1	0.0	0.0
2	MRS ARIZONA BRAZA	2	10/1	Slow	0	0	6.5	0.0	0.0
3	FOUR SWEET KID	3	6/5	Fast	81	82	1.6	0.0	0.0
4	KJ FLASHY GIRL	4	6/1	Average	82	73	3.9	0.0	0.0
5	FANCEY LIKE	5	4/1	Fast	78	74	3.0	0.0	0.0
6	FDD AMERICAN HONEY	6	3/1	Average	74	68	4.8	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 7	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 3:57P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OKLAHOMA STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SHIP OF DREAMS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OKIE MAGIC: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. INARI: Horse has run a Good Race within the la st 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	SHIP OF DREAMS	5/2	7/2
3	OKIE MAGIC	3/1	6/1
4	INARI	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PAULA M	2	12/1	Front-runner	70	66	76.5	58.8	47.8
8	SHIP OF DREAMS	8	5/2	Front-runner	78	87	76.0	74.6	70.1
5	GRACE THE KINGDOM	5	8/1	Stalker	78	72	71.8	62.8	51.3
6	RAINBOW ANGEL	6	5/1	Stalker	82	82	67.8	58.6	51.1
7	BUSINESS AS USUAL	7	15/1	Stalker	71	64	64.4	60.8	49.3
3	OKIE MAGIC	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	81	61.4	69.2	64.7
4	INARI	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	80	58.8	71.0	64.5
1	RAILEY JEAN	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	65	57.6	58.0	46.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 4:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$11000 - WINNERS OF 4 RACES THAT ARE NW 9 RACES LIFE FOR NW OF A RACE LAST 4 STARTS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 HELP PEDRO 5/2
# 4 TALKIN' BOUT YOU 10/1
# 9 DESIGNER DRINK 12/1

HELP PEDRO is the most solid play in this race. Might be there at a reasonable price tag. Definitely one to keep in your exotics. May be the most respectable in the field of starters here, showing nice ratings of late. Avg speed is a solid 78. The 80 average class ranking may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the pack. TALKIN' BOUT YOU - The handicapping group will always toss in a solid standardbred from the 4 hole here at Dover Downs, keep in mind for your exotics. Could positively better this grouping given the 72 TrackMaster SR recorded in his most recent competition. DESIGNER DRINK - Getting a good feel about this gelding. Could surprise in this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Pocono Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 14
1	1	DELESTON	3/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 20	500.21
6	6	CALIBER	9/2	Buter, Tyler - 17	492.62
8	8	ALTA CLASSIC A	12/1	Cushing, Ron - 16	486.56
3	3	TENNESSEE SMOOTH	7/2	Boyd, Braxten - 14	486.46
5	5	WOODMERE DEALER	10/1	Allard, Simon - 12	465.34
4	4	STENDAHL HANOVER	5/1	Herschberger, Mark - 6	455.81
7	7	HUNGRYHUNGRY HIPPO	8/1	Kakaley, Matt - 20	439.87
2	2	MR CENSI	4/1	Warren, Ridge - 8	434.05

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Oak Grove Racing

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
2	2	SHANE FALCO	7/2	Bobbitt, Geremy - 2	606.43
4	4	MIGHTY BREEZE	8/1	Curtin, Pat - 7	509.00
1	1	FEARTHELUE	5/2	Indof, Jeremy - 8	487.00
5	5	DRAGON PERFECT	5/1	Tetrick, Trace - 15	486.99
3	3	BROOKLYNS CARMINE	6/1	Shehan, Tyler - 11	483.51
6	6	CRIUS N ROCK	6/1	Luna, Marvin - 16	457.71
8	8	GENIE INA BOTTLE	6/1	Stewart, Cordarius - 6	437.75
7	7	BABY BONITA	12/1	Miller, Lewayne - 10	386.88

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Miami Valley

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 14 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$19500 - N/W 4

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 ROXANNA 3/1
# 5 BLACK VELVET AS 12/1
# 4 UNCLE PETES DREAM 5/2

The consensus this time is that ROXANNA is the one to beat. Take a look at this harness racer's avg speed ranking of 87 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a really good bet. She has respectable class ratings, averaging 86. Worth considering for a bet for this race. With a competitive 89 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. BLACK VELVET AS - Good for a win wager just off the exemplary prior class stats. Have to like this contender. We're not going to pass on this mare given one of the most respectable driver/trainer numbers around. UNCLE PETES DREAM - Outstanding win statistic combined with recent really good performances. We think she can handle this group. A competitive win figure has been recorded by solid standardbreds beginning from the 4 slot.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: New York -14 over Philadelphia

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U


Tuesday's Free Selection: Golden State Warriors/Memphis Grizzlies under 237 1/2