Tuesday 4/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:32 PM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Spot Plays for Blue Grass Day Tuesday

April 8, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

It is Tuesday, it is somehow Blue Grass Stakes Day, and I am absolutely looking forward to it!

I am sure at this point most of you know about the weather that wreaked havoc on Kentucky over the past week pushing back the start of the Spring Meet a couple of days. The change of schedule leaves us with a Triple Crown Money Back Special Offer to take advantage of today, as well as a card that includes five graded stakes.

Race 2:

They were back on the grass for the feature on Monday and things went well, so I am hopeful we are back on the lawn for good for this 9-furlong MSW affair for 3YOs where I like #3 Kicking Clear. The Calumet Farm homebred has failed to hit the board in four starts, but has progressed nicely in those tries for trainer Brendan Walsh. Last out, the son of Keen Ice had no shot when stablemate Wait for Me dictated the early tempo and took a field gate-to-wire at one-mile over Turfway’s all-weather surface. That said, this colt finished well against the flow of the race and is bred to relish the added furlong. Hopefully, he takes to the surface switch and gets a lot more pace to chase with Edgar Morales getting the leg up for the initial time.

Play: #3 Kicking Clear (15-1 ML)

Race 7: Commonwealth (G3)

The pace should be contentious in the first leg of the All-Stakes Pick 4 in large part due to 3-1-morning line favorite #2 Montalcino. The Cherie DeVaux trainee is a head away from entering his first graded stakes start a perfect 4 for 4. The son of Take Charge Indy has speed and talent, but will likely have to work from start-to finish from his inside draw. This could make it difficult for him to get that final furlong.

The likely race shape should benefit #6 Hoist the Gold. The 6YO made his seasonal debut in mid-February at Fair Grounds and won convincingly as the 6-5-public choice. The Dallas Stewart trainee has clearly pointed to this spot working steadily in March in preparation for his second try off the bench. He has a win and 2 seconds in 3 starts over this racetrack and has an edge over several of his rivals at seven-eighths of a mile. I like his chances to spring the minor upset.

Play: #6 Hoist the Gold (9-2 ML)

Race 10: Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

The final major piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle is one of those stakes and it is a challenging race to handicap despite just a compact group of 7. #1 River Thames was made the 5-2-morning line favorite after being nailed at the wire by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Munnings colt has done little wrong thus far, but you rarely see a Todd Pletcher horse of ability get caught in that spot at Gulfstream Park. He is amongst those with a big chance to win, but I needed him last time and am unwilling to swallow the chalk.

I am hoping #3 Burnham Square puts himself back on the map after a flat fourth-place finish to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Liam’s Map gelding came back a little quick after two big wins in Florida for Ian Wilkes. The Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred ran well on debut over this surface going far shorter than he prefers and I like the move to Brian Hernandez, Jr. Expect him to save ground early and come with his run when they hit the far turn. Hopefully he gets overlooked in the wagering.

Play:#3 Burnham Square (9-2 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:33 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #6

#6 Totally Justified	She ran well here last year and might be set to fire fresh after being last seen at the Breeders' Cup. Think there is a lot to like here today from a good tracking spot.
#1 Nitrogen	Won't argue too hard with anyone landing here and leaning strongly on her in this spot, but I think this race has a couple of other fun fillies who might stack up OK with her.
#3 Fionn	She gets her class test today while rising off a string of really nice efforts in New Orleans, and she ran well enough over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf in her career debut to put to rest my concerns about her just being a Fair Grounds horse for the course.
Race Summary	Totally Justified drops off the layoff today and already owns a good run over the local course. She should be able to find a good position while letting some of the quicker players settle the early scores.

Keeneland - Race #7

#6 Hoist the Gold	He's pretty good when he's on his game, and that comeback run in New Orleans was solid -- guessing it'll serve as a useful stepping stone to a score today.
#2 Montalcino	Not much to argue with on his page through four starts, and it doesn't feel like this race has a ton of super-serious early burn, so he may be able to control this one from the start. Big threat.
#8 Here Mi Song	He was a little flat in the Phoenix here last fall before going to the bench, but he has typically run well locally and might be in a pretty good spot to track Montalcino and get the jump on the finishing threats.
Race Summary	Hoist the Gold has some class to him, and I think that will shine through today after a well-intentioned Fair Grounds prep. Montalcino is the threat to take it to them and roll.

Keeneland - Race #10

#6 Chancer McPatrick	Looks like he'll get at least a fair tempo to track today, and I am confident he'll come forward off the Tampa race last time out. Wonder if he was too close to the splits that day?
#5 East Avenue	He had a big excuse in the Breeders' Cup but had a pretty dreamy trip before packing it in tamely in the Fair Grounds comeback. Honestly don't know what to do with him here, but his ceiling is clearly high enough to win this if he finds the circumstances here to bring his A-game.
#1 River Thames	Wouldn't be any surprise to see him handle these after that sharp try while stepping up in the Fountain of Youth last month, but I have a mild worry that the longer trip is going to stretch him a little bit. Cozy inside run could be in store.
Race Summary	Chancer McPatrick is tough with his better stuff, and I think he gets a fair race shape to kick into while bringing some logical upside in the second start off the layoff.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:34 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #6

#4 WAR CHEST (3-1)	Still going strong at age 10 with $271k turf bankroll intact.
#7 SWAMPDRAINER (8-1)	Steady form, drops in claiming price, should sit good trip.
#5 SHUT UP MICHAEL (10-1)	Led at stretch call in 8 of last 10 on lawn, winning once.
Race Summary	WAR CHEST has been well managed in winning 3 of his last 5 starts at one mile on the turf. The 10-year-old ran three times for a $4,000 claiming price to remain eligible for today’s race and posted some big numbers along the way. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#6 TEAM CONCEPT (3-1)	Continues to burn serious money, gets one more chance in here.
#1 BEA MISCHIEF (7-2)	Four-wide most of the way, vied for lead in stretch, game finish for second.
#5 ALOHA KITTEN (10-1)	Front-end factor at a price if you discount latest from post 12.
Race Summary	TEAM CONCEPT chased the odds-on winner to mid-stretch, only to finish second for the fifth time in her last eight starts. She looks best on paper but was dismissed at less than 3-1 morning-line price in seven consecutive starts. Bet to win and place and play 6-1 and 6-5 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#5 BABE’S GOT APPEAL (2-	Went fast, led at every call in three wins this year, don’t expect 2-1.
#1 COCKTAIL PRINCESS (12-1)	Relegated to chase mode, finished 1-1/2 lengths behind ‘Babe.’
#6 DISTINCTIVE DEB (5-2)	Out-dueled the in-hand leader at 5F, out-kicked by deep closer.
Race Summary	Catch her if you can. No one has been able to do it the last four times BABE’S GOT APPEAL ran, including the latest at 5F, not 4-1/2F like today’s race. Can’t go beyond the lightly-raced 7-year-old in this spot with distance clockings of :50-2/5 and :51 flat this season. Bet to win and place and play 5-1 and 5-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:35 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Keeneland
PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race 11	Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)-Toyota $1 Super High Five
Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $120,000 • Post: 6:26P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5 ALLOWED 5 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $35,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SEAPORT LANE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) i s at least 50. REYNOLDS CHANNEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ACCIDENT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MAP TO THE STARS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Po wer Rating.
1	SEAPORT LANE	2/1	5/1
6	REYNOLDS CHANNEL	4/1	7/1
13	GREAT RICHIE M	20/1	8/1
10	ACCIDENT	30/1	8/1
8	MAP TO THE STARS	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	RUN JALEN RUN	5	12/1	Front-runner	95	97	88.2	87.4	78.4
1	SEAPORT LANE	1	2/1	Front-runner	94	101	81.5	95.7	90.2
3	PENTATHLON	3	10/1	Front-runner	99	93	77.7	80.6	65.1
8	MAP TO THE STARS	8	5/1	Front-runner	94	95	77.2	89.2	76.2
11	IT'S MY LIFE	11	15/1	Front-runner	87	80	75.0	63.3	43.3
13	GREAT RICHIE M	13	20/1	Stalker	100	93	70.6	90.2	79.2
7	WYOMING BILL	7	20/1	Stalker	86	83	30.3	67.3	41.8
9	BIG HAMMER	9	50/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	85	70.9	84.4	70.9
4	LOU'S LEGACY	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	95	67.6	87.6	67.6
14	STANDARD OF PROOF	14	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	88	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	ACCIDENT	10	30/1	Trailer	98	91	64.8	93.8	79.3
2	RISK IT	2	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	97	93	71.2	91.2	77.7
6	REYNOLDS CHANNEL	6	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	94	96	67.2	89.9	80.4
12	THEISMANN	12	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	86	70.4	83.8	67.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:35 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 7	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $30,300 • Post: 3:03P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED SINCE OCTOBER 18 OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (HIGHEST EARNINGS 2024-2025 PREFERRED)(OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. RED HOT LASS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RED HOT LASS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FLOWER MOUND: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating.
3	RED HOT LASS	3/2	5/2
7	FLOWER MOUND	9/2	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	LIBERTY BELLE	6	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	84	80	75.2	74.2	68.7
3	RED HOT LASS	3	3/2	Stalker	94	88	78.0	86.4	83.9
7	FLOWER MOUND	7	9/2	Stalker	87	80	66.2	80.6	75.1
4	NEEDED	4	15/1	Stalker	84	84	65.8	74.4	61.4
8	LUCKY COUGAR	8	3/1	Trailer	84	77	62.6	72.0	58.5
1	DIVINE FASHION	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	80	57.0	74.0	64.0
5	SHEISTHEHERO	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	72	57.0	72.2	62.7
2	GRACIE DANCE	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	75	47.8	65.0	53.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:35 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $140000 Class Rating: 112

KEE - R4 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE FEBRUARY 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $62,500 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 NORTHERN INVADER 2/1
# 1 IRISH ACES 3/1
# 10 WONDERFUL JUSTICE (GB) 30/1

I've got to go with NORTHERN INVADER. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 112 - of his last contest. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group lately. Is a solid contender based on figures put up as of late under today's conditions. IRISH ACES - Has to be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. WONDERFUL JUSTICE (GB) - Going off blinkers can produce noticeable speed boosts. Must be given a shot here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:36 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:01pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#4 YOU KNOW ME (ML=5/1)

YOU KNOW ME - This thoroughbred coming off a strong race in the last 30 days is a serious competitor in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GOLDEN PHILLY (ML=5/2), #5 ENTENTE (ML=3/1), #3 MAGGIE MISCHIEF (ML=7/2),

GOLDEN PHILLY - Hasn't been on the Parx Racing oval in the last two to three weeks. Cause for some concern. In the last affair this racer finished third. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time. ENTENTE - Showed very little in the last event. Really don't see any hint of improvement today. MAGGIE MISCHIEF - Would have to get better off that second place finish last time out to make an impact here. This racer hasn't had even a drill after running so well on March 17th.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - YOU KNOW ME - I've mapped this entire race out. This thoroughbred will sit a few lengths back for the 1st part of the race, then should be rolling around the clubhouse turn. As they turn for home, she should be in control.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #4 YOU KNOW ME to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:36 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - SA - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BABE'S GOT APPEAL 2/1
# 6 DISTINCTIVE DEB 5/2
# 1 COCKTAIL PRINCESS 12/1

BABE'S GOT APPEAL is my choice. Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 83. Win percentage one of the best in this group. Will most likely compete strongly in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group of animals. DISTINCTIVE DEB - Ran a strong last race. She has put up strong figs under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group. COCKTAIL PRINCESS - Villamar has a solid 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this group in her last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-08-2025, 02:36 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#3 INSTANT KARMA (ML=2/1)

INSTANT KARMA - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. After the event aboard this animal on March 24th, the jock is going to 'know' the colt much better. This colt is in fine form, having run a nice race on Mar 24th, finishing third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 PEA EYE (ML=9/5), #1 THE WINNING EDGE (ML=3/1), #6 NIGHTLINGER (ML=5/1),

PEA EYE - I don't possess a 'use' intuition about this vulnerable equine in this race. THE WINNING EDGE - 3/1 is just too low of a value to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued equine. NIGHTLINGER - No good results for this vulnerable equine in a sprint race over the last couple of months tells me that this colt is in a difficult spot Pace makes the race and an absence of pace means this closer will have to rally without any help.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 INSTANT KARMA to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Tuesday 4/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 4/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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