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Handicapping Primer: Sunday, April 20, 2025

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April 19, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Happy Easter from the staff of Xpressbet and 1/ST BET to all of the horseplayers out there and your families. The racing action on this holiday features Gulfstream and Santa Anita in full swing.

Easter Sunday Post Times | North American Thoroughbred tracks

12:50 pm ET Gulfstream Park
3:00 pm ET Santa Anita
3:15 pm ET Sunray Park
3:40 pm ET Hawthorne
7:00 pm ET Mountaineer
**no harness racing in North America on Sunday; international racing available

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Gulfstream Park Full-Card Picks and Analysis from Brian Nadeau
GP_Brian_Nadeau_4-20-25_Program_Picks.pdf

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Santa Anita: Race 7 $100,000 American Stakes Analysis from Jeremy Plonk

#6 King of Gosford got away with easy splits in the Grade 2 Mathis Mile last out when proving best as the 3-5 favorite. Flavien Prat returns west for the mount, foregoing a holiday at Keeneland after riding the Oaklawn Handicap card on Saturday. This colt doesn’t need the front, however, and may concede the front to the revitalized #4 Cabo Spirit, a surprising third in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile just a neck behind fellow American returnee #1 Zio Jo. They were 31-1 and 23-1 last time and much shorter in this spot as the play will be to find someone else to back-end the exacta behind King of Gosford. #4 Endlessly returns from a July layoff and should be finishing with a flurry for Michael McCarthy. He’s been working on dirt in the a.m. with Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism and is 3-for-4 at the mile trip on turf, winning Santa Anita’s Zuma Beach in 2023. Exacta play 6-4 in the American.

Santa Anita: Race 9 Spot Play from Jeremy Plonk

Irish export #1 Church Lady was an interesting purchase considering she was 100-1 in her Dundalk debut when finishing third. She catches essentially the same cast from March 16 here that all rematch, and fresh faces are the way to go for me in these multiple returnee situations. Plus, morning line favorite #8 Nafisa has been beaten 3 times as the favorite, including last out at 4-5, so there’s no need to settle for her at a short price even if she looks best on paper. Church Lady’s trainer Phil D’Amato wins 23% first time US, adds Lasix and tabs Antonio Fresu. Win play #1 Church Lady. Exacta-box 6-10 with stretch-out, second-timer #10 Cat the Confidante for John Sadler.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Santa Anita - Race #1

#1 Carposo	Interested to see how hard she gets bet while trying turf and dropping out of graded stakes company off the layoff, but I think she should find a good trip with her positional pace from the fence, and she's right there if she likes the new footing.
#2 The White Lady	She races fresh in this one while bringing reliable form with her from late last year, and she seems a good fit on form even if I have a mild concern about this trip being a touch too sharp for her.
#4 Certitude	She has that dangerous combination of speed and an ability to rate, and that should give her rider some options while keeping tabs on how the top two are settling into the race flow.
Race Summary	Carposo faced a couple decent groups last year in the sophomore filly ranks, and she'll test the turf today in a spot where she feels very competitive if she likes the surface.

Santa Anita - Race #2

#1 Miss Practical	Price probably won't be much here, but she can hit hard with a couple solid efforts on her page already. Something like the career debut on the main track would probably do the trick today.
#8 Kapalua Ride	She needed cheaper to wake up last out, but she draws well to try to force the issue with that speed she flashed in the last one. Could stay for a share.
#2 Brandon's Girl	She's another who steps up off a decent effort, and I like that she showed a little bit more late interest in that one than she did in the debut run.
Race Summary	Miss Practical might just be a small step ahead of most of these right now, and she has already run a race that is probably good enough to win this.

Santa Anita - Race #3

#6 Run For Kidder	He has to turn the tables on the rail runner, but he might be able to with a good draw today to watch everything unfold. Lots to like.
#5 Hothead	He has some reliable turf form and pace to prompt things from the break today, but the price might end up on the short side, and I think the top choice might be in touch throughout.
#1 Binging	His better stuff makes him a player here, but I just don't have a ton of enthusiasm for him as what might be the second choice on the board.
Race Summary	Run For Kidder looks interesting enough while drawing outside for this one, and I wonder if a couple of his recent tries might be a touch better than they look at first glance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park
PURCHASE

Santa Anita Park - Race 6	Win ($2) / Place ($2) / Show ($2) / Exacta ($1) / Trifecta ($1) Superfecta ($.10) / RollingDouble ($2) / Rolling Pick 3 ($1) Late Pick 5 ($.50)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 2:40P
FOR RESTRICTED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD BASED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SINCE JANUARY 1, 2024 OR HORSES WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $6,250 OR LESS IN ONE OF THEIR LAST TWO STARTS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (HORSES TRAINED BY HORSEMEN BASED IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SINCE JANUARY 1, 2024 ARE CONSIDERED ELIGIBLE).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DIVINE RASCAL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DIVINE RASCAL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TRINIDAD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or a n "L" designation. MY BUCKET LIST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BIG DON'S SMILING: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MOMO'S KIDDO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
3	DIVINE RASCAL	3/1	5/1
14	TRINIDAD	8/1	7/1
13	MY BUCKET LIST	4/1	8/1
7	BIG DON'S SMILING	8/1	8/1
12	MOMO'S KIDDO	8/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DIVINE RASCAL	3	3/1	Front-runner	83	76	80.4	76.8	70.3
12	MOMO'S KIDDO	12	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	92	71.8	73.0	61.0
14	TRINIDAD	14	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	93	88	68.2	82.0	73.5
7	BIG DON'S SMILING	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	85	55.6	77.0	67.0
6	NORTH COUNTRY	6	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	84	50.6	74.6	56.6
2	DONTTESTYOURLUCK	2	30/1	Trailer	85	75	59.0	71.0	53.0
4	ADIOS NICANOR	4	12/1	Trailer	84	83	55.6	78.4	64.9
13	MY BUCKET LIST	13	4/1	Trailer	91	83	54.6	81.6	75.1
1	CLEMENTS RIDE	1	8/1	Trailer	90	88	41.7	77.7	62.2
11	ABADON	11	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	70	76.0	64.8	51.3
8	SIX HOT GRANDS	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	67	67.2	60.2	39.7
10	GOLF DRAMA	10	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	75	43.6	69.6	54.6
5	UNCLE DUSAN	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	51	39.9	39.0	14.0
9	SMILING TONY	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	68	36.0	63.6	39.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 3	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $43,000 • Post: 1:48P
FOR STATE BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * HELLO JELLO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VEKOWIN: Horse is a first time starte r and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. KEEP ON MOVING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EASY ANSWER: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
1	HELLO JELLO	8/1	3/1
6	VEKOWIN	3/1	9/2
2	KEEP ON MOVING	7/5	6/1
5	EASY ANSWER	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HELLO JELLO	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	72	90.1	68.3	65.8
2	KEEP ON MOVING	2	7/5	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	71.1	69.2	65.7

Unknown Running Style: JUAN MO TIME (10/1) [Jockey: Panici Luca - Trainer: Sierra Ruben], PRIMORDIAL (4/1) [Jockey: Lopez Paco - Trainer: Sano Antonio], EASY ANSWER (7/2) [Jockey: Husbands Micah J - Trainer: Delgado Gustavo], VEKOWIN (3/1) [Jockey: Z

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:05pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,300 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#6 EMBERLY (ML=3/1)
#2 WHATCHAMACALL (ML=10/1)


EMBERLY - This mare likes to sit just off the pace and the way things shape up here, she should get a perfect trip. Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Charles Town. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Trainer, Farrior, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. WHATCHAMACALL - This front running sort is running a shorter distance today. Should promote her winning probability.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ONE TOUGH DAME (ML=5/2), #7 HOT CAROL (ML=4/1), #1 SKYS IMAGE (ML=9/2),

ONE TOUGH DAME - Didn't meet expectations when the favorite twice. Finished third in her most recent effort with a quite unimpressive fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. HOT CAROL - Didn't hit the board on March 6th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Followed it up with another lackluster try. Not probable for this one to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint race. SKYS IMAGE - In any contest of 5 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been on the board in sprint events lately. Finished seventh last time out of the box. Would have to get better to land in the top three in today's event. Will be hard for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the likely underlays list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 EMBERLY to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 103

SA - R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 KING APOLLO 9/2
# 4 COMMANDER (FR) 8/1
# 5 BOB'S BLUE MOON 10/1

I have to support KING APOLLO here. COMMANDER (FR) - Could provide positive gains based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 96. This gelding looks good in this competition since Palma has a strong win percent with horses going this distance. BOB'S BLUE MOON - Decent selection to take this race going in a turf sprint.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500 (PREFERENCE BY CONDITION

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MISSISSIPPI MAN 5/2
# 3 VIA DEL CORSO 7/2
# 2 CARAMBASO 9/2

MISSISSIPPI MAN has a solid shot to take this race. Looks solid for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. Loveberry has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 18 percent clip. Vaunts strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. VIA DEL CORSO - Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good handicapping key. This one ranks at the top in this lot. CARAMBASO - Has run solidly when running a dirt sprint race. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to consider this gelding.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Lone Star Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:27pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#3 RUNRATE (ML=3/1)
#5 COFFEE KISSES (ML=8/1)


RUNRATE - I like this one. Finished in front of today's favorite last out at Sam Houston, and I think she will do well versus this field today. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a strong race on Mar 22nd. Horse has improved at least 2 speed rating points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event. COFFEE KISSES - This pony coming off a solid contest in the last month is a solid contender in my humble opinion. When Young gives Fuentes a leg up on any steed, you got to know that with their win percent you have at least a fighting chance. After a pair of sprints, she's routing today, which is probably what this filly wants to do. Is ranked at the top in earnings per start (EPS). A solid performance in this field will boost the lifetime total.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SUGARCOAT (ML=5/2), #1 WONDER WAVE (IRE) (ML=9/2), #10 VIOLET KITTEN (ML=6/1),

SUGARCOAT - Don't feel this runner will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. WONDER WAVE (IRE) - 9/2 is too short of a value to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back outings. Finished fifth in her most recent race with a pedestrian speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. VIOLET KITTEN - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 RUNRATE is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with 5 with [4,10,11] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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