11-19-11

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[timbob]

ROBERT FERRRINGO

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
5 UNIT* CFB* 393 SMU (+20.5) over Houston
3.5 UNIT* CFB* 333 Virginia (+17.5) over Florida State
2 UNIT* CFB* 351 New Mexico State (+22.5) over BYU
2 UNIT* CFB* 378 Ohio State (-7) over Penn State
2 UNIT* CFB* 399 Oklahoma (-15) over Baylor
1.5 UNIT* CFB* 322 Illinois (+14.5) over Wisconsin
1.5 UNIT* CFB* 363 Colorado State (+34) over TCU
1.5 UNIT* CFB* 369 Arizona (+11) over Arizona State
2 UNIT* CFB* Georgia Tech Over 56.0
2 UNIT* CFB* Arizona Over 68.0

[timbob]

Week 12 NCAA Trends & Angles

Our feature angle last week was a winning one as Stanford finally failed to cover a spread after beginning the year 9-0 ATS, as the Cardinal got upset outright by Oregon.
That means that it is Oregon that has now won nine straight games straight up since an opening week loss to top ranked LSU, so it is now the Ducks that have an outside chance of reaching the BCS National Championship Game, although they need a lot of help.
Regardless, the Ducks are home hosting USC this week, which makes them one of two teams to fit this week's feature angle.

Play on any conference home team that has won at least nine straight games straight up (53-35-4, 60.2% ATS since 1990): You usually have to be a special team to win nine straight games, and confining this angle to conference games ensures that the streaking teams are still facing teams at their same level that they are familiar with. We had to go all the way back to 1990 for this one to find a decent enough sample size to recommend it. Yes, this angle is 0-1 this season with the Stanford loss in Week 11, but it has a nice chance to bounce back with two qualifiers in Week 12: Oregon -15½ and Houston -19½.

Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (91-65-7, 58.3% ATS since 2005): Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. There are three qualifying plays for Week 12: UNLV +23½ at Air Force, Mississippi State +13 at Arkansas and Kentucky +30½ at Georgia.

Play against any team that has won seven or more games in a row ATS (43-27-2, 61.4% ATS since 1985): Teams that are covering machines like this are very popular among bettors, but as you might expect, the bookmakers eventually adjust for these popular teams to the point where they lose their value. It took a while for that to happen with Stanford, but it finally did as Oregon won as the only qualifier under this angle in Week 11. There is one more qualifier in Week 12, that being North Texas +3 vs. a Western Kentucky team that has now covered seven straight after covering vs. top ranked LSU last week.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least six straight games straight up (139-96, 59.9% since 2005): We are not sure about the reasoning behind this phenomenon, but there appears to be a direct relationship in college football between long losing streaks and going 'under' in the next game. There are six qualifying 'unders' this week: Akron at Buffalo, Florida Atlantic at Troy, Indiana at Michigan State, Kansas at Texas A&M, Maryland at Wake Forest and Tulane at Rice.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least seven straight games straight up (86-55, 61.0% since 2005): Add a seventh straight loss to the previous angle and the 'under' percentage jumps to 61 percent over 141 trials. There are four qualifiers from the previous angle that qualify here those being the 'under' in games involving Florida Atlantic, Indiana, Kansas and Tulane.

Play on any divisional road underdog coming off of a road game (117-85-2, 57.9% ATS since 2005): This one is also very similar to an NFL angle that we often referenced, as books have been over-adjusting against teams playing their second straight road game, especially when the second game is against a divisional opponent that they are very familiar with. This angle went 1-0-1 in Week 11, winning with Oregon and pushing with Duke. There are four big qualifiers for Week 12: Arizona +10½, Kentucky +30½, Maryland +10½ and Nebraska +3½.

[timbob]

David Chan aka The Dragon

CFB- Wisconsin @ Illinois PICK: 10* Illinois +14
CFB- Nebraska @ Michigan PICK: 10* Michigan -2.5
CFB- Minnesota @ Northwestern PICK: 8* Minn +16
CFB- Iowa @ Purdue PICK: 8* Iowa -2.5
CFB- GTech @ Duke PICK: 8* Duke +11
CFB- Boise St @ SD St PICK: 10* SD State +18 "PRIME TARGET"
CFB-Fresno @ Hawaii PICK: 10* Fresno +5.5 "BLACK DRAGON"

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DOC

5-ILLINOIS+14.5
4-PURDUE+3
4-MICH-3.5
4-OHIO ST UN 39
4-OHIO ST-7

strong opinions

northwestern-15.5
vanderbilt-1.5
arizona+11

[timbob]

Gold Sheet
16 - 26

Key Releases
#341 VANDERBILT by 11
#368 ARIZONA STATE by 23
#370 STANFORD by 31
#381 KANSAS STATE by 4

Gold Sheet - CKO
11* - 6 - 2 - 1
10* - 6 - 4

11 * #320 NORTHWESTERN
10 * #332 WAKE FOREST
10 * #340 GEORGIA
10* #345 EASTERN MICHIGAN
10 * #396 ARKANSAS

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NELLYS
1=11-12
2=11-10
3=6-4
4=9-3
5=4-6

Key Selections
RATING 5 #384 NOTRE DAME (-24)
RATING 4 #380 RUTGERS (+3)
RATING 3 #333 VIRGINIA (+17)
RATING 2 #340 GEORGIA (-28½)
RATING 2 #381 KANSAS STATE (+9)
RATING 1 #345 EASTERN MICHIGAN (+3)
RATING 1 #374 UCLA (-10)

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Platinum Sheet - Stat Fox
27 - 24

Best Bets
#321 Wisconsin
#333 Virgina
#371 Nebraska
#381 Kansas St.
#402 Oregon

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Marc Lawrence - Playbook
AA=5-7
5*=4-5
4*=7-5
3*=3-6
BB=2-1
GOW=6-4
INC 4-5

Awe Angle
#389 Ut.St -- #385 Navy
Inc St. #367 Arizona
#333 Virgina

UPSET Game of the Week. #367 Arizona

4* #382 Texas
5* #402 USC

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Pointwise
1=12-9
2=10-6
3=8-6
4=12-12
5=12-9

Key Releases
#396 ARKANSAS RATING: 1
#340 GEORGIA RATING: 1
#317 OKLAHOMA ST RATING: 2
#370 STANFORD RATING: 3
#394 HOUSTON RATING: 4
#381 KANSAS STATE RATING: 4
#321 WISCONSIN RATING: 5
#341 VANDERBILT RATING: 5

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Powerplay
1*=9-3
2*=10-8
3*=19-19
4*=49-40-2
4.5=13-18

2* #320 NW 38 MIN20
4* #332 WAKE FOREST 35 MD 20
4* #338 BUFFALO 31 AKRON 16
4.5* #340 GEORGIA 43 KENTUCKY 8
2* #346 KENT ST 21 E MICHIGAN 17
4* #352 BYU 51 (if -24 or less) NM ST 21
1* #390 IDAHO 22 (+) UTAH ST 30
4* #392 AIR FORCE 39 UNLV 12
4.5* #394 HOUSTON 51 (if -21 or less, 4H if -21.5 +) SMU 22
4.5* 396 ARKANSAS 37 MISS ST 20
4.5* #399 OKLAHOMA 50 BAYLOR 23
1* #403 BOISE ST 35 SAN DIEGO ST 17
4* #412 ULM 26 FIU 22

[timbob]

Powersweep
2*19-12-2
3*=7-15
4*=5-6

Key Selections
4* #396 ARKANSAS
3* #399 Oklahoma
3* #388 Nevada
2* #340 Georgia
2* #349 New Mexico
2* #392 Air Force

[timbob]

Winning Points
24 - 24 - 1

Best Bets
#372 Michigan
#373 Colorado

Preferred
#329 Ga Tech
#358 Texas A&M
#348 Temple
#382 Texas

[timbob]

Strike Points Sports

5-Unit Play. Take #394 Houston (-19.5) over SMU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)
College Game of the Week

4-Unit Play. Take #396 Arkansas (-13) over Mississippi State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)

3-Unit Play. Take #330 Duke (+10.5) over Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take #342 Tennessee (+1.5) over Vanderbilt (7 p.m., Saturday, November 19)

[timbob]

JZ The Source

1* Over 56.5 - Boise St.

1* Boston College +24.5

1* Purdue +3

1* Nebraska +3.5