Thursday 4/24/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-24-2025, 04:04 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#5 DREAM LEADER (ML=5/2)

DREAM LEADER - It looks like Mendez had to know this filly on March 27th when riding her for the initial time. Back on board again today. Utilizing this jockey/conditioner combination is a good move. Adorno brings her right back. I recommend you stick with this strong filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SEVEN NATTY PATTY (ML=7/5), #2 GHOST OF ALCINA (ML=4/1), #6 PALACIO (ML=6/1),

SEVEN NATTY PATTY - Usually I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint events in order to bet on her. GHOST OF ALCINA - In the last event this runner finished fifth. Doesn't look promising for her chances this time. Notched a pedestrian speed rating last time out in a $10,000 Claiming race on Apr 5th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. PALACIO - This mare didn't do much last time out of the box. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not investing on this entrant off of that trend. Hard to keep following this sort of 'hanger' horse. This mare earned a fig in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 DREAM LEADER on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-24-2025, 04:05 PM

Scott Shapiro: Thursday Keeneland Spot Plays

April 24, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

The final Thursday of the spring meet is upon us at Keeneland before the Kentucky circuit moves to Churchill Downs on Saturday. The 9-race card is headlined by a Pick 6 carryover of over $25k that starts in Race 4. It also has a trio of horses I am interested in wagering on that are double-digits on oddsmaker Nick Tammaro’s morning line.

Race 2:

This MSW event for 2YO’s sprinting over the lawn is led by a pair of first-time starters for high-profile connections, including 8-5-favorite #10 Longshoreman. The Wesley Ward trainee as always looms large in this spot as does Brad Cox/Stonestreet Stables filly #7 Raffinato, but I will try to beat them with a colt who holds the experience edge and should offer far better value.

#12 Barstool debuted over the good main track back on April 7 for trainer Ben Colebrook and put forth a good effort all things considered to finish third. Not only did the son of Caravaggio overcome being caught four-wide, but did so for a barn that is just 4 for 54 with 2YO first-time starters over the last 5 years. Colebrook has far stronger numbers with second-time starters and is having another strong Keeneland spring giving me no reason to believe this colt will not move forward this afternoon.

Play: #12 Barstool (10-1 ML)

Race 5:

This first-level allowance at 1 1/2-miles over the turf not only makes up the second leg of the Pick 6 and the opening leg of the late Pick 5, but also the start of the $3 Turf Pick 3. 9-5-morning line favorite #8 British Isles never got to run earlier this month in a similar spot at one-mile and retains Flavien Prat, but that does not change the fact he is 1 for 16 in his career. #10 Steadfast Resolve is the deserving second choice off of four consecutive solid runs for George Weaver, but has never raced in Kentucky and was competing against $40k maiden claimers a few starts back. So again, I will take a swing with a price.

#5 Fort Thomas makes his first start since finally breaking through for his first career victory last November at Churchill Downs. The War Front colt obviously is at the mercy of the pace since he has absolutely no speed, but has run well over this course and should be fit off of five consecutive works over the Keeneland main track. Hopefully Julien Leparoux can work out a trip from well off the pace.

Play: #5 Fort Thomas (12-1 ML)

Race 7:

My final price play of the afternoon comes in this 8.5-furlong affair over the grass for second-level allowance foes where I will take a big swing with #10 Ocean Pointe. The Kitten’s Joy gelding was on the shelf for well over a year before returning to the races at Turfway Park in mid-February. He was empty in his return race, but then took a noticeable move forward in his second start off the lengthy layoff despite failing to hit the board once again. The 5YO gelding has been fastest over the turf, not the all-weather, so the move to the green should be to his liking. Hopefully, he can get back to his races at Churchill in September ’23.

Play: #10 Ocean Pointe (20-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-24-2025, 04:06 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Turf Paradise - Race #3

#1 ARIZONA JEREMY (7-2)	Kept quality company recently, perfectly spotted for third start of cycle.
#4 GONZAGA BAY (9-2)	Gets in light, didn’t show usual zip against ‘Jeremy’ but should do so today.
#5 HEZADOOZIE (4-1)	In top form, steps up in class for new barn, changes riders.
Race Summary	ARIZONA JEREMY was no match for today’s fifth race stakes favorite Pop D’Oro in a long sprint and he was caught on a clear lead in the race prior after six weeks away. But he’s in the right spot to get back on the winning track if he can negotiate the rail draw. Expect him to be close up in a field that lacks quality speed. Bet to win and place on today’s Best Bet.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#1 KATAR (9-5)	Defending champ dominated against Arizona breds last year, works indicate readiness.
#3 BRANDYN (4-1)	Ultra-consistent sprinter challenged winning fave while 4-wide on turn at 6-1/2F.
#6 POP D’ORO (4-5)	Turned back Brandyn to remain a neck short of perfect 7-7 record locally.
Race Summary	KATAR won this stakes race last year by 11 lengths but raced only once since then a couple weeks later. The time away is offset by a strong, steady work tab at a track where he is 7-for-11. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.

Turf Paradise - Race #9

#6 V DUBBA U (4-1)	Showed a pulse in MSW debut, gets in light, barn on 12-34 run in maiden claimers.
#8 FREEDOM EMPIRE (3-1)	Drops below claim level, lures Hernandez, worked in :34.4-/5 recently.
#7 IMA RASCAL (7-2)	Rallied for second behind 5-2 pace setter at this distance last out.
Race Summary	V DUBBA U veered out and spotted the dueling favorites several lengths, made some headway on the turn while 4-wide but leveled out in the stretch. He class drops, sheds 10 pounds with second-time Lasix and could be in forward striking position with an alert break. Bet to win and place and play 6-3, 6-7 and 6-8 exactas.

Thursday 4/24/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 4/24/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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