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Johnny Burke: Happy Valley Spot Plays | April 30, 2025

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April 29, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Midway through the most prestigious week in horse racing, it’s time to take a shot at building up the Kentucky Derby bankroll with action from Happy Valley. After a whiff on FWD Champions Day, I’m gonna do my best to shake off the bad day and bounce back in a big way.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – April 30

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

OMNI – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination

DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order, get paid for each correct combination

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.

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Race 1 | 1650 Meters (~1 Mile) | Class 5 | Turf

Key: #3 CERVIN (6/1 ML)

Put this horse in this race after his January 8th effort, and I’d mark him the favorite in this field. In fact, he had performed well enough to bump up to the Class 4 ranks and make a run at 1800 meters. He took the lead in his Class 4 effort and the distance was just too much for him. He gets sent back down to Class 5 and returns to this distance where he’s all over down the stretch and can’t finish a good trip. Given his somewhat good recent form and the addition of Zac Purton, Hong Kong’s leading jockey, I’d say he has a solid chance.
But the numbers don’t love him, ranking him third in the group by a healthy five points. As much as my gut likes him outright, calculations that I trust think he may still be beaten. We won’t play him with any short prices, though, and instead will opt for a few other well-priced contenders to complete the Omni (for the uninitiated, the Omni requires you to pick two of the top three runners and they can finish in any order). #2 YOUNG HORIZON (14/1 ML), #4 U S S CONSTITUTION (7/1 ML) and #6 SKY PROPHET (13/2 ML) help round out the top four most highly rated, outside of our morning line favorite #5 CALIFORNIA MOXIE, and should help us make a nice trip to the cashier.

Betting Strategy
Win - #3 CERVIN
Omni – 2,3,4,6
Trifecta – 2,3,4,6 w/ 5 w/ 2,3,4,6

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Race 3 | 1000 Meters (5 Furlongs) | Class 2 | Turf

Key: #2 AURORA LADY (7/2 ML)

As much as it pains me to do this, I just want to play this horse heavily straight up. #7 GLORY ELITE (6/1 ML) will fire from the fifth post and take the lead. Just to his outside will sit AURORA LADY from the next post over. Morning line favorite #8 COLORFUL KING (5/2 ML) will be just a hair too slow to be mid-pack and will end up a few lengths off the lead, new territory for this first-timer in Class 2. The traffic jam will ensue as everyone fights for room, and from a cleanly rated trip our top pick will emerge with open lanes and find the wire first.

At least that’s the prediction I’m going with. The power ratings have this gelding as the second choice by less than a point, but the trip projection is set up beautifully for Zac Purton to steal another one on the day and send us home with full pockets. The other top contenders are a bit too short for me to construct some crazy day-maker. Instead, I’ll be making my most sizable win bet of the day and singling in the Pick 3 starting in this race.

Betting Strategy
Win - #2 AURORA LADY
Pick 3 – 2 w/ 2,3,4 w/ 1,2,4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 73 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 5:16P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NO SELF CONTROL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NO SELF CONTROL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GOLD DELIGH T: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SWIFT BEE: Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 s tarts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
6	NO SELF CONTROL	15/1	7/2
3	GOLD DELIGHT	7/2	7/1
11	SWIFT BEE	12/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	NO SELF CONTROL	6	15/1	Front-runner	60	50	59.1	45.2	41.2
5	COPPER CHROME	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	37.8	35.0	27.0
1	JULY FOUR	1	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	17.8	29.8	20.8
3	GOLD DELIGHT	3	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	62	60	29.5	46.8	44.3
8	HAZEL MY CANDY	8	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	62	59	24.1	34.8	27.8
10	YOTOWIN	10	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	15.2	32.2	26.7
2	QUIBBLE	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	21.8	12.8

Unknown Running Style: FAT CHANCE (4/1) [Jockey: Murrill Mitchell - Trainer: Eggleston Tim], OSO FANCY (5/1) [Jockey: Contreras Luis - Trainer: Klopp Randy L], LO MACHAR (12/1) [Jockey: Roman Evin A - Trainer: Mullins Scott D], SWIFT BEE (12/1) [Jock

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise
PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 8-9) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 4:38P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE 2024-2025 TURF PARADISE MEET FOR $4,000 OR LESS AND HAVE NOT FINISHED 1ST, 2ND OR 3RD AT THE CURRENT MEET OR HAVE STARTED IN A FEED BAG RACE AT THE CURRENT MEET AND HAVE NOT FINISHED BETTER THAN SECOND. OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 30, 2024. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * KANDEREL: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Today is a sprint and the horse's las t start was within the last ten days. PEACEFUL WATERS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. XTREME MAYHEM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start afte r a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	KANDEREL	4/1	7/2
9	PEACEFUL WATERS	3/1	4/1
3	XTREME MAYHEM	9/2	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	PEACEFUL WATERS	9	3/1	Front-runner	90	86	88.0	77.6	74.6
3	XTREME MAYHEM	3	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	89	82	78.2	79.0	74.0
8	CHELSEA DAGGER	8	20/1	Stalker	80	74	46.8	72.4	57.4
5	BEL RAGAZZO	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	74	73.0	71.1	59.1
1	KANDEREL	1	4/1	Trailer	97	92	58.7	86.0	82.5
10	YOU KIDDING ME	10	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	77	52.9	72.1	62.1
7	PEDRO PEREZ	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	73	88.4	70.0	55.5
4	FIGHT ME	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	74	48.8	46.6	27.6
2	VICENTE'S SHADOW	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	72	43.0	72.8	59.8
6	MULBERRY STREET	6	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	82	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #4 - Post: 2:20pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,900 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#5 A VAN ON THE RUN (ML=7/2)
#4 RUNAWAY POWER (ML=2/1)


A VAN ON THE RUN - This jock and conditioner's animals have been generating a profitable ROI. Traditional handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. A live one today. Last time around the track, finished fourth in the slop at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Have to give a better effort in this event. RUNAWAY POWER - This pony coming off a strong contest in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STRING OCTET (ML=8/5), #3 MOR STORMY (ML=6/1), #6 FAST AND FRIENDLY (ML=8/1),

STRING OCTET - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a sprint race to be worth a shot at short odds in a sprint. MOR STORMY - When any animal improves so much in the slop, I have to be leery of him next time out. Earned a run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on March 30th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating. FAST AND FRIENDLY - Doesn't seem to have enough positive angles to warrant the reward.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - RUNAWAY POWER - Racing pattern would suggest this animal is fit and ready for today's race. I'd expect a strong performance.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 A VAN ON THE RUN on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 EMIRATES HONOR 3/1
# 7 WOW BUBBLE 9/2
# 3 G SPEEDY 4/1

EMIRATES HONOR is the strongest bet in this race. He has earned very good figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group. Has to be carefully examined based on the strong speed figure put up in the last contest. Has decent speed figures and has to be considered for a wager in this race. WOW BUBBLE - The speed figure of 57 from his last contest looks decent in here. Looks very strong versus this group of horses in this race and should be one of the leaders. G SPEEDY - Strong average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a contender. Competitive shot today with second time Lasix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $86,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#1 MARMALADE SKYE (ML=5/2)
#6 READY FOR TROUBLE (ML=5/1)


MARMALADE SKYE - Trainer Jacobson moves this thoroughbred down in the class scale to face weaker company. Look for a strong race racing against these lower level horses. Moncada is up for another race today after sitting atop this equine for the first time on March 20th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Getting a break of 5 pounds from last race at Turfway Park. She should make the most of this advantage. READY FOR TROUBLE - This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier group than in the last race at Oaklawn Park.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THESE APPLES (ML=3/1), #3 STORY HOUR (ML=4/1), #5 PROGENY (ML=6/1),

THESE APPLES - A pattern of decreasing speed figures 92/88/73 for this steed. STORY HOUR - A pattern of dropping speed ratings 87/81/75 for this entrant. PROGENY - No good results for this less than sharp equine in a sprint race over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a formidable circumstance notched a run-of-the-mill speed fig last time out in a $35,000 Optional Claiming race on Mar 15th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MARMALADE SKYE - With the highest last speed rating of 92, this mare looks exceptional against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 MARMALADE SKYE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. 2ND PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RACY STACY 4/1
# 8 TRUE VELOCITY 3/1
# 2 FAMOUSLILTRES SOCKS 5/1

RACY STACY looks to be the wager in here. Is a strong contender based on figs put up as of late under today's conditions. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Her 59 average has this filly with among the best Speed Figures in here. TRUE VELOCITY - Should expect this equine to be right there on the wire versus these ponies. McDonald has this filly racing well and is a decent selection based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figs garnered in short races as of late. FAMOUSLILTRES SOCKS - Very strong jock with trainer numbers make this horse a very strong wagering choice. Looks solid versus this group and will almost certainly be one of the leaders.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #4

#9 Let It Ride	Mild worry about his punch in the final yards, but I think he'll get the right kind of trip here and has some reasonable upside in the second start back.
#1 Shefflin	He was a winner over this course in his career debut, and he might have some room to come forward while getting back to the grass while racing fresh. In the mix.
#11 Urban Legend	He has some occasional finishing form that makes him appealing here, but I think this is a pretty competitive spot and worry that he'll take a bit too much cash.
Race Summary	Let It Ride would be interesting for me today at something like 9/2 -- he might being enough of a step forward today to turn the tables on Urban Legend from that comeback run.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#1 Out On Bail	Think there are a few good options in this one, but I like the trip he figures to get while racing in behind some of the sharper pace. From there, he's adaptable enough to watch things unfold a bit and spring to action when the time is right.
#11 Governor Sam	No doubt he's the one to beat as he comes back for the first start since a good run at the Breeders' Cup, and he at least gets a good draw to force the issue from the outside in a race with some other decent front-end pace. Excited to see if he's come forward at all.
#8 Big Vince	Speed probably has his hands full with some other forward players today, but he gets another chance on the turf after only trying it in his career debut, and the price will probably be interesting enough for a team that knows their way around a race like this.
Race Summary	Out On Bail and Governor Sam are already old friends from a couple races last year, but I wonder if 'Bail can turn the tables on that shorter price drawn at the other end of the field.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#3 Zohere	Decent pedigree in a cheap spot without any real form on paper? I'll start my work here with a look on the tote and track, but I'm inclined to give him a chance right out of the box.
#10 Cajun Cruiser	He has some finishing form that might play well in a race that is mostly full of chasing types who can't get past horses late. This one might pick this group up in the lane.
#6 Silent Breeze	Cutback player tends to give away ground late, but he at least plugged past a few horses in one of his previous races, making him semi-appealing to me today.
Race Summary	Leaning to a couple of potential midrange prices here, but Zohere is a fresh face in a race where I wouldn't trust anyone too much.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Evangeline Downs - Race #1

#5 COME WHAT MAE (8-1)	Bid on turn behind short-price top pair in 7F comeback, longshot stab.
#7 LIGHTENING MO (3-1)	Pressed by winning favorite for a half mile before tiring in a longer sprint.
#3 REAL DEAL RYAN (5-2)	Reunited with state-bred rivals, where he stands 7/1-2-2 in recent starts.
Race Summary	COME WHAT MAE made a wide rally on the final turn but was left in the wake of the 2-1 winner and 4-to-5 runner-up at this distance. But she finished ahead of eight rivals and could improve in her second start off a two-month rest. Bet to win and place and play 5-4 and 7-4 daily doubles.

Evangeline Downs - Race #2

#4 CRIME SPREE (5-2)	Been facing better, lands in ideal spot on the class drop as today’s Best Bet.
#1 GOTMY MO JO WORKIN (2-1)	Stalked winner 4-wide, ran third, eligible for this spot by a week.
#5 HYPERBOLIST (4-1)	Gets class relief, needs some pace flow on cutback to 0-for-4 distance.
Race Summary	CRIME SPREE advanced wide and finished third behind the fleet-footed, 6-to-5 winner in starter allowance company. The lightly-raced 7-year-old hit the board in 3 of 4 prior starts at the Fair Grounds and figures tough at a distance which he’s earned more than $80,000. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Evangeline Downs - Race #3

#1 CARTHAGE CAJUN (10-1)	Rallied behind the favorites in improved try for new barn.
#3 LIL BRO COOP (7-2)	Raced close-up and tired in longer route dominated by closers.
#6 DOC HIGGINS (2-1)	Opened long lead from post 9 and held on to win in latest main-track start.
Race Summary	Fair Grounds returnee CARTHAGE CAJUN ran third off the claim in a longer route race, now takes a confident class hike. He projects an ideal stalking trip from the rail and gets the call for a win and place bet. Also play a 1,3/ 1,3,6/ALL trifecta.