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Scott Shapiro: Churchill Downs 'Thurby' Spot Plays

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April 30, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

The lead up to Kentucky Derby 151 continues on Thursday afternoon when Churchill Downs has a solid 12-race card on tap. The Thurby card contains a trio of stakes races and should offer some solid wagering opportunities despite mother nature likely to play a role on the day with rain forecasted in the Louisville area. Here are a few horses I like in the races originally scheduled for the main track with racing over the turf a big question mark at this point.

Race 5:

My first play of the day comes in this $50k starter at one-mile where I like the chances of #1 Riddle Solver to move forward in his second start of the form cycle for trainer Andrew McKeever. The Arrogate gelding debuted at Ellis Park last summer and failed to hit the board when encountering traffic issues. He went to the sidelines until this February when he returned at Turfway Park with blinkers on for the first time. The newly turned 4YO stalked early and won at nearly 20-1 before putting in a solid third-place effort in his first start against winners at Keeneland. In that spot, it was #5 Gamblers Tail running that group down, but Riddle Solver was much closer to an early pace that collapsed. He ran well when you take into account the flow of the race and his 25-1-price. Hopefully, he can take another step forward in his first try over the Churchill Downs main track.

Play: #1 Riddle Solver (10-1 ML)

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Race 6: Kentucky Juvenile

I do not usually have much of an opinion in this 2YO stake at 5-furlongs, but this year is an exception. I have been waiting for the return of #6 Monster ever since he debuted at Keeneland on April 7. The good-looking Florida-bred opened up very live on the tote board for trainer Jose D’Angelo, but had trouble minding his own business in the paddock before heading out onto the racetrack for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, the Leinster colt broke in tangle and then lost a few more lengths right after the start costing him any chance of competing with eventual winner #5 Pinky Finger. That said, he did show some life late and gets blinkers for his second career start. I am expecting a huge move forward.

Play: #6 Monster (3-1 ML)

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Race 11: St. Matthews Overnight

#3 Speed Boat Beach is the understandable 5-2-morning line favorite in his return to the races for trainer Bob Baffert. The son of Bayern has not raced since winning the Malibu (G1) going away in 2023, but his resume and speed figures prior to that break speak for themselves. The question is are you willing to take a short price not only with the layoff in mind, but the fact all of his success has come in California. He is obviously capable of dusting this field of non-graded stakes winners in 2024-2025, but as a gambler I will always be willing to take a shot against a horse with this profile.

With #8 Champlin likely to give Speed Boat Beach all he can handle early, I will hope to take advantage of a potential contentious pace with #1 Henro. The son of Collected is not as consistent as some of his rivals, but should be ready for his best off the freshening for trainer Chris Hartman. Hartman is off to a strong start to the spring and this gelding has not only run well over this surface, but is a perfect 2 for 2 over an off track. If we get an honest pace and the moisture in the surface we expect, he should be rolling late under veteran Rafael Bejarano.

Play: #1 Henro (15-1 ML)

Best of luck on the Thurby card!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #6

#4 Diblasi	Bit interested to see if he can land this as the other other Ward runner in here. He has some room to come forward off a decent debut run, and he should get a bit overlooked compared to his more obvious stablemates.
#5 Pinky Finger	Think this one goes through her after the debut romp, but the price is going to reflect that. Could be gone if she's just a step ahead of these right now.
#7 Double Talker	Yet another from the Ward barn, he also has a sharp debut win to his credit and should be forcing the issue the whole way.
Race Summary	Fun race that appears to be between some runners out of Wesley Ward's barn, but I wonder if Diblasi has enough upside to spring an upset on his more accomplished stablemates.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#7 Bango	He has historically done good work here and rested over the winter for this comeback run. Could see him getting an OK trip tracking a couple sharper forward players. Some appeal at what should be an OK price.
#3 Speed Boat Beach	He was last seen winning the Malibu in 2023, and this feels like a reasonable enough spot to make the comeback run off the long break. The one to beat, but today might be the day to try to get past him.
#9 Happy American	Maybe he's finding a bit of life as a late-running sprinter -- he only missed by a length in Grade III company last out. A quick pace would help him come alive late.
Race Summary	Bango hasn't been quite as automatic here as he used to be, but he might be an OK price today with a decent trip waiting for him. Could see it.

Churchill Downs - Race #12

#11 My Gal	She didn't seem particularly interested in the dirt last time out at Keeneland, so the surface switch gives her plenty of upside in the second start off the break. I'm interested.
#10 Fleetingly	She rallied with some punch in the Tampa run late last year, and she looks like the clear one to fear late. Logical player to have on the plays if you have a strong lean elsewhere.
#7 Stellify	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone looking to land here, but I worry she'll take cash again today after not proving a serious threat to either winner so far. Obvious chance, but I'm not that enthusiastic today.
Race Summary	My Gal has some midrange price appeal in a race where I'm hoping Fleetingly and Stellify take some action -- 'Gal should be happy to get back on the turf today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Evangeline Downs - Race #1

#9 MI SOLUTION (3-1)	Solid numbers, proven at this level, distance suits.
#2 FRENCH COMPOSER (8-1)	Worked fast for return, faded in tougher field.
#3 DEER CROSSING (2-1)	Can’t fault 24/6-8-5 grass record with $200k bankroll.
Race Summary	MI SOLUTION has two wins and two seconds in his last six non-stakes starts, though mostly against Louisiana-bred rivals. He has speed but can rate from post 9 in here. He was denied by the pace setting favorite at one mile three starts back and faded in a faster-paced follow-up. Bet to win and place and play 2-4 and 9-4 daily doubles.

Evangeline Downs - Race #2

#4 HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC (20-1)	Bumpy start, chased pace 3-wide, passed by odds-on winner in stretch.
#2 CATALINA DAY (5-2)	Has speed, was overhauled by pair of deep closers at Fair Grounds.
#8 MUD ON MY BOOTS (2-1)	Takes the plunge for barn in midst of 0-for-34 run with claimers.
Race Summary	HAYHAYCAPTAIN JAC took aim at the drifting leader in mid-stretch but was no match for the late-running 2-to-5 favorite at Fair Grounds. He should sit an ideal trip and outrun his 20-1 morning-line odds. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-8 exacta box.

Evangeline Downs - Race #4

#3 HONOR THAT DUDE (3-1)	No fire for high-percentage claim barn, drops for reunion with LA-breds.
#4 APRIORITY ROCKET (10-1)	Faded readily last out, fits off prior lines, goes 7F for the first time.
#10 RAYDEN AND REMI (5-1)	Rallied outside of winning fave but couldn’t sustain bid at higher level.
Race Summary	HONOR THAT DUDE romped in his last two starts against state-bred rivals, now drops below his claim level after an even effort at the $12,500 level. He changes riders again but gets the nod for a win and place bet. Also play a 3-4-10 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 1	Exacta/Trifecta (.50)/Superfecta (.10 min.)/Daily Double (Races 1-2)($1 min.) Pick 3 (Races 1-3)/Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 6:15P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MDA LOUISIANA ROAD: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOO MANY DREAMS: Horse has the highest TrackM aster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. GG CATCHING CORONAS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	MDA LOUISIANA ROAD	5/2	5/1
2	TOO MANY DREAMS	9/2	5/1
1	GG CATCHING CORONAS	7/2	6/1
9	BOLD BUX	20/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GG CATCHING CORONAS	1	7/2	Slow	66	63	8.6	0.0	0.0
2	TOO MANY DREAMS	2	9/2	Average	73	58	4.3	0.0	0.0
3	TT LA CORONITA	3	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	MDA LOUISIANA ROAD	4	5/2	Slow	66	67	7.9	0.0	0.0
5	MAGIC MARLEY B	5	10/1	Slow	0	0	6.3	0.0	0.0
6	JAMMIN JEWEL	6	8/1	Average	0	0	6.0	0.0	0.0
7	DOWN FOR A CORONA	7	6/1	Slow	66	55	8.4	0.0	0.0
8	JESSADIFFERENTDOLLY	8	20/1	Slow	59	37	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	BOLD BUX	9	20/1	Average	62	57	5.7	0.0	0.0
10	FIRE ICE CARTEL	10	12/1	Slow	0	0	8.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 7:12P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN BEATEN CONDITION ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SCOTT ALAIA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCOTT ALAIA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MIKEY'S JEWEL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LOUELLA STREET: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Ra ting. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	SCOTT ALAIA	8/1	3/1
5	MIKEY'S JEWEL	5/2	6/1
4	LOUELLA STREET	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	LOUELLA STREET	4	5/2	Front-runner	70	64	65.4	53.8	48.8
1	DESI'S REWARD	1	2/1	Front-runner	72	51	65.0	52.6	46.6
6	SCOTT ALAIA	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	70	68.8	57.8	52.3
5	MIKEY'S JEWEL	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	59	46.8	50.0	44.5
3	MY JO JO	3	6/1	Trailer	71	55	45.4	49.8	42.3
2	A BIT BAD N BOUJEE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	66	50.6	42.0	32.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $14500 Class Rating: 50

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MI PERLITA 10/1
# 8 SOUTHBOUND N GONE 12/1
# 2 COLD STONE RUNNER 12/1

MI PERLITA looks like the bet in here and could score at a price in here. Sanchez has a formidable win percent of 18 in baby races. This filly could improve on Lasix. Bettors may find wagering value with this sire's offspring, who have a combined +134 return on investment. SOUTHBOUND N GONE - He will most likely show formidable support based on handler figures which can be very important in two-year old races. This gelding could improve on Lasix. Strong handler with 2 year olds has given bettors good returns (+55 ROI) - very important in baby races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Evangeline Downs - Race #8 - Post: 8:40pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 50

Rating:

#10 ROUND IN CIRCLES (ML=7/2)


ROUND IN CIRCLES - Ebow should have her moving solid on the turn. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good signal. This mare recorded a nice speed rating of 42 in her last race. That speed figure should be strong enough to win in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DON'T BE BOSSY (ML=5/2), #1 LAST PENALTY (ML=9/2), #6 LITTLE MILLIE (ML=5/1),

DON'T BE BOSSY - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint contests in order to back her. Awfully hard to bet on this runner when she hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. LAST PENALTY - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests recently. Not probable to see her doing it this time either. Hard to put your money on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does. This runner ran a pedestrian speed fig last race out. She shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that number. LITTLE MILLIE - Doubtful for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no recent success in a short distance clash.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ROUND IN CIRCLES - Looks like Landry has been trying to find the right class level for this horse. Took a big drop in class in last race, but returns to a similar class in this affair. A good sign she may win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #10 ROUND IN CIRCLES on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 56

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SLAMDUNNK 3/1
# 3 DE VERDUGO 5/1
# 8 RELENTLESSS LADY 20/1

I think SLAMDUNNK is a solid choice. DE VERDUGO - Will almost certainly come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the lead recently. RELENTLESSS LADY - This racer could stun this lot at a big price. The class rating of today's affair is much lower than her last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Hawthorne - Race #1 - Post: 2:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#4 CATHOLIC SUE (ML=2/1)


CATHOLIC SUE - This thoroughbred should be rumbling down the homestretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ANNIE'S HOPE (ML=9/5), #1 CALLAS (ML=3/1), #5 TWO TIMER (ML=7/2),

ANNIE'S HOPE - Tough to put your money on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does. CALLAS - Awfully hard to wager on this entrant when she hasn't been showing any gumption recently. Improbable that the fig she earned on Mar 27th will be good enough in this event. TWO TIMER - Ran unpredictably on Apr 10th. Be leery this time out. Will be hard for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 CATHOLIC SUE on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip