Friday 5/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-01T06:24:37-05:00

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs - 5/2/25

May 1, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Friday, May 2, 2025
Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks Day Program

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Churchill Downs Race 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Shred the Gnar.
Backups: 1-Anomima.

Forecast: Shred the Gnar was supposed to dominate her maiden competition at Gulfstream Park in her second career start in mid-March – she left at 2/5 - and she did just that, establishing the pace and then drawing away with authority to register a six length-plus win over a mile while earning a stronger than par speed figure for the level. The daughter of Into Mischief, with the preferred two one-turn races under her belt, stretches out for the first time to a mile and one-sixteenth and projects to be the controlling speed. She’s clearly a potential stakes type but is wisely being allowed to go through her conditions by trainer B. Lynch. She’ll offer good wagering value at or near her morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.

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Churchill Downs Race 2: Post: 11:58 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Endorse; 4-Defiant Lass; 3-Saucier.
Backups: 7-Contorted; 9-Salted.

Forecast: Lots of question marks in this borderline inscrutable maiden main track route affair for fillies and mares, so we suggest you spread deeply. The known element doesn’t really inspire, so let’s try a gamble on the newcomer Endorse, listed at 8-1 on the morning line for T. Pletcher and F. Pratt. The daughter of Curlin displayed plenty of talent last summer when breezing as a 2-year-old at Saratoga but never made it to the races and debuts going long (not surprising based on pedigree) with a series of drills at Palm Beach Downs that look promising. Recently, she breezed a half mile stride for stride with Florida Derby fifth place finisher Disruptor and may have been slightly best. Defiant Lass shows the classic two sprints and a stretch-out pattern for D. Romans (who has strong stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle as well) and finished in the frame in both of her prior outings while showing a significant rise in speed figures in her Keeneland dash last month. The daughter of Dialed In projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance. Saucier seems likely to improve for B. Cox (excellent with second timers) after earning a solid fig when sprinting in March at Fair Grounds. She’ll add blinkers today and shows a pedigree that okay’s this stretch out in trip.

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Churchill Downs Race 3: Post: 11:58 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket:12-Moon Channel; 6-World Beater; Some Performance.
Backups: 9-Marina Gamble; 11-Vivaldi.

Forecast: Here’s a wide open grass grab bag for older maidens that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as your budget allows. Moon Channel is intriguing as a second time starter with arguably more upside than most of the others. Somewhat green in his debut at Keeneland last month and falling far back during the early stages, the son of English Channel suddenly woke up midway on the turn and closed resolutely to finish second before galloping out strongly past the wire. The speed figure wasn’t great, but this colt should produce a significant forward move today – his outside draw notwithstanding - for a barn that hits with a strong 20% with second time starters. At 6-1 on the morning line with F. Geroux riding him back, he could be a good value play in the rolling exotics. World Beater is strong on numbers and shows rising figs in each of his four races, most recently when second in a similar affair at Keeneland three weeks ago. He’s a one-paced grinder type but probably is a bit more dangerous than his 6-1 morning line indicates. Some Performance is fresh off the plane from Ireland, where he finished a distant third as the favorite facing maidens at Leopardstown. His overseas form doesn’t really inspire but he should be competitive against this group, especially as a first time Lasix user.

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Churchill Downs Race 4: Post: 12:29 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Stable Currency
Backups: 7-Beauty Reigns.

Forecast: Stable Currency looks pretty solid in this extended sprint for first level allowance fillies and mares. She’s really gotten good of late, winning her last pair with strong numbers at Fair Grounds, and if she can transfer that form over this track the daughter of Audible can extend her streak. She employs an effective pace pressing style so today’s extra half furlong should be no issue, so at 7/2 on the morning line, the C. Block-trained sophomore offers value in the win pool and in the rolling exotics.

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Churchill Downs Race 5: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Nitrogen; 8-Will Ten.
Backups: 7-Lush Lips.

Forecast: Nitrogen seeks her fourth straight stakes win in this year’s renewal of the Edgewood S.-G2 and is the logical top pick to continue her dominance in the sophomore filly turf division. She has produced a rising speed figure in every one of her six career outings and could very well produce another top today. She has excellent tactical speed and can really turn it on from the quarter pole home. California invader Will Ten doesn’t quite have the resume as our top pick but is quite good in her own right, and it’ll be interesting to see if she can improve enough to make a serious run for it. The daughter of War of Will projects to inherit a soft second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance to prove she belongs at this level. As of now she’s a bit shy in the speed figure department but we doubt we’ve see her best, so at 9/2 on the morning line she is worth including on your main ticket.

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Churchill Downs Race 6: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 4-Fierceness: 2-Locked.
Backups: none.

Forecast: 4-Fierceness makes his seasonable debut, and after viewing several of his recent workouts on video at Palm Beach Downs we can say with confidence that he’s at least as good if not better now than he was last fall when he finished a superb second in the BC Classic-G1. Today’s pace scenario looks moderate, so the City of Light colt can settle early just about anywhere he wants to be. It shouldn’t be discounted that he’ll be receiving 5 lbs. from his major rival, Locked, who is fresh from a runaway win the Santa Anita H.-G1 and could easily be this good in his present form. We’re confident the winner will be one of these two; small ticket players who don’t want to double their ticket might be tempted to opt for Fierceness.

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Churchill Downs Race 7: Post: 2:23 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Thorpedo Anna
Backups: none.

Forecast: There’s not much we can with this year’s edition of the La Troienne S-G1 other than to accept the free bingo space with Thorpedo Anna as a no value rolling exotic single at 2/5 on the morning line. She’s won seven of her last eight, her only defeat coming in a photo to Fierceness in the Travers S.-G1 last summer at Saratoga. He recent numbers have been decent, not brilliant, but she usually only does what is required. In this race, she can only beat herself.

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Churchill Downs Race 8: Post: 3:12 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 7-She Feels Pretty.
Backups: 8-Saffron Moon,

Forecast: She Feels Pretty makes here 2025 debut after being given some time off following back-to-back stunning victories in the QEII Cup-G1 at Keeneland in October and the American Oaks-G1 at Santa Anita in December. At that time she was head-and-shoulders the best sophomore filly turf performer in the land and today will tackle older race mares for the first time. It shouldn’t matter. Her work tab is solid, she’s fired fresh in the past, and she dominates this group on numbers. At 6/5 on the morning line, she’s a rolling exotic single, though you may opt to have a backup ticket or two using the tough-as-nails Saffron Moon just in case.

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Churchill Downs Race 9: Post: 4:07 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Impulse Buy; 12-Eclatant; 5-Verity.
Backups: none.

Forecast: The contention is quite deep in this year’s edition of the Eight Belles S.-G2, so we’ll toss in a few and hope to get a middle price home. Impulse Buy has strong and consistent numbers with further improvement likely, so we’ll give her a very slight edge on top at 7/2 on the morning line. The switch to F. Prat certainly won’t hurt and this extended sprint distance of seven furlongs fits her stalking style perfectly. She was very good as a two-year-old and should be even better off the layoff. Eclatant is assured clear sailing from her far outside draw and is likely to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking journey. She broke her maiden at first asking over this main track and won the Forward Gal Stakes in February at this distance in her most recent appearance. Verity splashed her way to an easy win in the Beaumont S.l-G2 at Keeneland over seven eighths but has won on dry land as well, so the surface shouldn’t matter. The daughter of Nyquist is a strong fit on numbers and is a logical main contender.

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Churchill Downs Race 10: Post: 4:51 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9-Queen Maxima; 4-Ag Bullet
Backups: none.

Forecast: We’ll only use the two listed above in our rolling exotics and feel quite confident that no additional coverage is needed. California invader Queen Maxima is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer but in her present form it may not matter. She’s won four straight, each with a rising speed figures, and this J. Mullins-trained daughter of Bucchero has really found her niche as an abbreviated grass sprinter. She’s a versatile type than can win on the lead or from a stalking/pressing position so from the nine hole regular pilot J. Hernandez can play the break and pick his spot. Ag Bullet has a pair of recent triple digit Beyer speed figures on her resume, so on pure numbers she’s the one to beat. Freshened since December, the R. Baltas-trained mare was third, beaten a neck, in last year’s BC Turf Sprint-G1 and anything close to that race today very likely will be good enough.

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Churchill Downs Race 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Good Cheer; Tenma
Backups: 8-Five G

Main Ticket: Good Cheer is perfect in six starts and everything about her running style and pedigree suggests she should be even better as the distances increase. Being perfect in three starts over the Churchill Downs main track doesn’t hurt her case, either. If there is one concern, it’s that her speed figures aren’t through the roof, so we wonder if she’ll be worth the short price, but having said that it’s almost impossible to pick against her. Tenma is better than her 12-1 morning line suggests, and we’ll be quite surprised if she doesn’t at least hit the board. She has earned Beyer speed figures in the 80’s and 90’s and that makes her a fit, while her most recent Beyer (75) shorted her by at least five points, in our estimation. Her recent workouts indicate she’s ready for a career top.

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Churchill Downs Race 12: Post: 6:27 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Resiliance ; 10-Not This Boy
Backups: none.

Forecast: We don’t really have a strong feeling about this second level allowance main track miler, so we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Last year’s Wood Memorial S.-G2 winner Resilience returns for W. Mott and the works indicate he should be fit enough for a winning performance off the bench. He finished a solid second over this track and distance as a 2-year-old, so this shortened trip should be fine for him. Not This Boy, away since last August, displayed some promise at Ellis Park and was quite fast on numbers, so if he’s as good now and he was then he’ll be right there.

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Churchill Downs Race 13: Post: 7:02 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 10-Chaching Chaching
Backups: 2-Oraia; 3-Ivory and Ebony.

Forecast: The nightcap is for older maiden fillies and mares over seven furlongs that offers a reasonable play at 7/2 on the morning line. A late developing four year old daughter of Munnings, Chaching Chaching finished second in both of her starts to date and produced a significant forward move when raising her Beyer speed figure 15 points to a strong 86 in her most recent outing That number is considerably better than par for this level, so if she doesn’t go backward the E. Kenneally-trained filly should be ready to graduate. We’ll save with a couple of backups but the main push in the various exotics and in the win pool will go to our to pick.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:19:06-05:00

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4

#8 Still Unwritten	Need to take a look at how this all unfolds on the tote and track ahead of this one, but I'd start here for a team that seems to do a little bit of good work in just about every type of race around here.
#2 Bella Chavela	Check her out along with her stablemate #6 Cara Rose, as this barn has sent out a handful of pretty live horses in these types of spots locally.
#7 My Love Caroline	Wouldn't be totally shocked to see her land this one, as she brings a pretty reliable work tab with her to this one and has at least turned in a couple quick ones against the clock.
Race Summary	Still Unwritten will probably take just a touch of cash, but I think she's the right place to start in what looks like a fun race for the early season youngsters.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#6 Rebelexis	She was pretty one-paced the whole way in the debut run, but she was reasonably spotted that day and might have a little bit of upside. Could get past them today.
#12 Nephele	Forward player has had more than enough chances, but she is typically competitive and doesn't totally fold up when she finds a battle late -- something most of these aren't able to say. Could grind it out today from close range.
#8 Starship Sedona	Not much from her on the turf at first asking, but that came against a tougher group and could have her ready for something better while dropping hard for the second start.
Race Summary	Rebelexis could turn something similar to her debut run into a score here, and there is a chance she's bringing something better with that first run under her belt. Might get the right kind of run into some fading speed.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#4 Practical Dazzle	She probably still needs a bit better, but I'm going to take that first route run at face value today if the price is right. She looked good tracking the pace and scoring easily last out, and I think she's in line for another perfect trip. Really liked the last one.
#5 Nothing Is Forever	She's a super-honest finisher, and she handled the turf OK in that Del Mar try last summer. Perhaps the more consistent form she's bringing today will produce something better than she has shown in two local starts.
#12 Ultimate Hy	She has been in some pretty decent spots along the way, and her better stuff is still competitive with this kind of crew. Wouldn't argue too hard at something like the 6/1 ML price.
Race Summary	Practical Dazzle steps up to try a pretty decent group of winners, but I thought she looked pretty good getting the route trip last time out, and I think she can get first jump on a couple other threats today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:19:46-05:00

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#3 SHRED THE GNAR (5-2)	Won in ‘triple key’ race, controls her fate in three-peat attempt.
#4 CHASTEN (2-1)	Was ‘tugging at the bit’ while chasing winning Kentucky Oaks entrant Simply Joking.
#1 ANONIMA (3-1)	Stakes-placed router often makes middle move, draws rail for the first time.
Race Summary	SHRED THE GNAR controlled the pace and beat three next-out winners (average 73 Beyer) at one mile to remain perfect in two starts at Gulfstream Park. She can make maximum use of her speed again in this longer test. The siblings of her dam, Aspen Light, were 21-82 in route races. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Churchill Downs - Race #2

#7 CONTORTED (10-1)	Improved second-out run on surface switch, tries to carry speed a distance.
#5 ENDORSE (8-1)	Well-prepped for debut; dam was stakes-placed turf sprinter who never ran long.
#9 SALTED (3-1)	Finished in the money at four distances and four tracks in five starts.
Race Summary	CONTORTED dueled through the turn and ‘fought into the final furlong’ when third in a 6F sprint. The daughter of Grade III-winning miler Distorted Humor (sire of 912 dirt route winners) stretches out for the first time off a 1:00-1/5 work at Churchill. Bet to win and place and play a 5-6-9 exacta box.

Churchill Downs - Race #4

#4 FLAT OUT TIME (10-1)	Flat out impressive in her debut at small track, might be this good.
#3 STABLE CURRENCY (7-2)	Field’s lone six-figure earner seeks third win in a row.
#9 MINDY’S UNION (8-1)	Rallied past next-out winning favorite after five months away.
Race Summary	FLAT OUT TIME beat a bunch of 40-Beyer types in her debut at Fonner Park, but she looked good enough doing it to warrant a longshot playback. She put away the dueling favorite on the turn at 4F, drew off with authority in the stretch and widened quickly on the gallop out, clearly suggesting 6-1/2F is within her reach. Her fractional times were by far the day’s fastest. Bet to win and place and play a 3,4/3,4,7, 9/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:22:16-05:00

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 4	Leg 4 of the Oaks/Derby Pick 6
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 100 • Purse: $1,000,000 • Post: 4:06P
AMERICAN TURF S. PRESENTED BY FORD CD - R9 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NEW CENTURY (GB): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (di rt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ZULU KINGDOM (IRE): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. IRON MAN CAL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TEST SCORE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. H orse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	NEW CENTURY (GB)	3/1	7/2
7	ZULU KINGDOM (IRE)	4/1	6/1
10	IRON MAN CAL	9/2	9/1
5	TEST SCORE	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
17	A. P. KID	17	15/1	Front-runner	89	93	106.2	88.2	67.7
4	MI BAGO	4	10/1	Front-runner	90	97	97.4	85.4	71.4
8	CHARLIE'S TO BLAME	8	8/1	Front-runner	92	95	87.0	90.8	73.8
10	IRON MAN CAL	10	9/2	Stalker	101	104	96.1	96.1	83.6
7	ZULU KINGDOM (IRE)	7	4/1	Stalker	101	100	92.6	98.2	92.2
9	GIOCOSO	9	30/1	Stalker	93	87	84.4	86.7	65.7
12	GOLDEN AFTERNOON	12	20/1	Stalker	96	87	84.2	87.8	70.8
13	MAUI STRONG	13	30/1	Stalker	96	95	81.4	87.8	69.8
1	WARLANDER	1	20/1	Stalker	80	75	64.9	79.3	51.3
3	NEW CENTURY (GB)	3	3/1	Trailer	105	108	99.9	103.8	92.3
5	TEST SCORE	5	10/1	Trailer	96	95	83.4	89.8	83.3
2	SCIPIO	2	12/1	Trailer	95	94	78.8	88.0	80.5
15	HAMMERHEAD	15	30/1	Trailer	89	90	72.5	77.0	54.5
6	MAXIMUM PROMISE	6	20/1	Trailer	96	89	63.5	74.9	57.9
18	DISCREET DANCER	18	20/1	Trailer	75	73	58.8	69.2	35.7
11	CLASSIC OF COURSE	11	20/1	Trailer	88	87	52.3	83.9	59.4
16	SPIRIT RAGS	16	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	85	47.2	48.0	16.5
14	MEGALODON	14	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	85	44.6	82.5	55.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:22:37-05:00

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 68

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, COLTS AND GELDINGS TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 UNLIMITED CANDY 5/2
# 7 SEW FAST 6/1
# 3 FEARLESS AND FAMOUS 4/1

I have to support UNLIMITED CANDY here. Exhibits the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 60 speed rating which is one of the best in this field. This group is much easier than the last one he faced. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (60 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. SEW FAST - Will make a good showing versus this group. Sound average speed figs in short races make this horse a contender. FEARLESS AND FAMOUS - Recorded a sound Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Urieta has recent ROI figs which make this horse a strong bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:22:55-05:00

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:10pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#3 TOWN KISSER (ML=5/2)
#2 MALIBU WARRIOR (ML=3/1)

TOWN KISSER - Such a dominant closer. He'll try his best to catch the pace and pass them on the way to the finish line. Last race March 14th was pretty strong for a $5,000 Claiming race so this gelding's effort wasn't all that bad. This horse picks up a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can add to that total in this race. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last speed rating, 72, is tops in this bunch. MALIBU WARRIOR - Look at this pattern of improvement. 8/25/60 are the last 3 speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RED ABARRIO (ML=3/1), #1 SKELLIG ISLAND (ML=4/1), #4 RUNAWAYTOTHEMOON (ML=8/1),

RED ABARRIO - Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the money though. SKELLIG ISLAND - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 TOWN KISSER on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:23:08-05:00

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 4:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#14 CHARMED DREAM (ML=5/1)
#2 JOLIE CANDY (ML=10/1)

CHARMED DREAM - She finished 2nd Apr 19th, but was well in front of the show horse. State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this filly's move into the 'state bred' class today should make her tough in here. The ROI when Frey and McCarthy hook up is terrific. This filly is in nice form, having run a good race on April 19th, finishing second. Dropped in class last time around the track, and keeps in that lower class in this field. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. JOLIE CANDY - Papaprodromou drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to believe this one should have a chance to win at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BUDS N SUDS (ML=7/2), #12 NEPHELE (ML=4/1), #8 STARSHIP SEDONA (ML=9/2),

BUDS N SUDS - Tough to bet on any mount to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance. Can't wager on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance affair of late. NEPHELE - You think this animal is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. STARSHIP SEDONA - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this filly finished eleventh.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #14 CHARMED DREAM on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-05-02T14:23:20-05:00

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 67

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CUPCAKE COWBOY 7/2
# 4 GEM COLLECTION 8/1
# 7 NOBLE CONNECTION 15/1

I like CUPCAKE COWBOY here. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look formidable in this race. GEM COLLECTION - Looks quite good versus this group of horses in this race and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. NOBLE CONNECTION - Has the look of a profitable play.

Friday 5/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 5/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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