Saturday 5/3/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2025, 06:25 AM

Race of the Week: Turf Classic at Churchill Downs | Saturday

April 30, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
We all know THE Race of the Week is the Kentucky Derby, but we've got you covered wall-to-wall on that one in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. Do know that this lower-case 't' event wouldn't take a back seat to many betting chances on the calendar. The massive pool sizes on Kentucky Derby Day make the lead-in event to the Run for the Roses some serious handicapping territory in Race 11. A whopping $15 million-plus will be bet on this race singularly, dwarfing any Breeders' Cup grass race. Be sure to mix the Turf Classic into your strategies for the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion this weekend from 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Field Depth:
SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS and GOLD PHOENIX are the field's Grade 1 winners. INTEGRATION has won at the Grade 2 level and is Grade 1-placed. IDRATHERBEBLESSED also is a Grade 2 winner, while five others have won Grade 3s. INTEGRATION has kept the strongest company lines with SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS right on his heels in that category.

Pace:
Moderate projection here with IDRATHERBEBLESSED the most likely to take the lead. Several prefer to be forward, but not on top, like MERCANTE, GIGANTE, RUNNING BEE and TAKING CANDY. Not expecting them to cook in this 1-1/8 miles test over a middle distance and may play more like a mile where a quick turn of foot is needed in the stretch.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-INTEGRATION: Classy and consistent sort finished fourth in this race from the rail a year ago and appears to be in better form in the return bid. Major threat under Frankie Dettori for Shug McGaughey after facing a buzzsaw miler last out at Keeneland in Carl Spackler.

#2-GOLD PHOENIX: Long-distance sort did win over this trip in the 2023 Eddie Read at Del Mar, but a bit more one-paced now at age 7. Drawn well as jockey Umberto Rispoli looks for the ultimate first Saturday in May double with the Kentucky Derby mount on Journalism on deck.

#3-HIGHWAY ROBBER: Overmatched in only start this year in Dubai, this one seemed to gain a foothold last year when extended to the marathon turf trips. Tough spot on the cut-back on trip for this deep closer who won't get a great pace set-up.

#4-REDISTRICTING: Lightly raced 5-year-old didn't finish against several of these at Fair Grounds in the Muniz and was beaten favorite against easier in both starts a year ago. Underlay price possible vs. 10-1 morning line for Chad Brown-Irad Ortiz Jr., though the rider's presence here does raise some intrigue given his multiple previous mounts on Turf Classic contenders.

#5-IDRATHERBEBLESSED: 86-1 upset winner when wiring the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds against several of these, he came back to earth a bit when stretched out most recently in Keeneland's Elkhorn. Back on just 2 weeks' rest and will have to prove his longshot status again.

#6-TAKING CANDY: Consistent sort has a versatile running style that could be effective at this trip, but no doubt faces the toughest competition of his career. Jose Ortiz rides for Cherie DeVaux as brother Irad hops off to pilot Redistricting on Saturday.

#7-RUNNING BEE: Second of 3 Chad Brown trainees in the lineup, he's won 3 of his last 4 and his only loss during that time was a very credible Grade 1 fourth at Keeneland last Fall behind 2 superstar milers. Flavien Prat rode to victory at Tampa last out and this 8-for-16 runner makes first appearance on the Churchill lawn. Threat.

#8-CAMEO PERFORMANCE: Inconsistent colt may be counted on for one of his good efforts as trainer Brendan Walsh is coming off a red-hot Keeneland meet in which he shared the training title. Lasix has been in play with most of his top efforts, however, and won't be available in the Turf Classic to competitors. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode in the Muniz last out when third and he hops to ride Redistricting.

#9-MERCANTE: Upset winner at 13-1 of the Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic at Turfway, this would be his first turf stakes attempt. Cross-entered Thursday in the Opening Verse Stakes and would fit better in that easier spot.

#10-SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS: New York-bred win machine has scored 10 of 15 starts in a lightly raced career, now aged 6. The most accomplished of the Chad Brown-trained trio entered here, winning the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf. Didn't get any pace help whatsoever when an even fourth as the favorite in the Muniz last time. His former NYRA rider Manny Franco regains the mount from the injured Tyler Gaffalione. Respect despite tough post in first local try.

#11-BRILLIANT BERTIE: Deep closer has won all 3 Churchill turf starts and it will be interesting to see if trainer Cherie DeVaux opts for this race or Thursday's easier spot, the Opening Verse Stakes. Did strong work against then-fellow 3-year-olds in 2024, but couldn't make any dent vs. elders in the Muniz last out when compromised by the pace. Prefer others.

#12-GIGANTE: Millionaire has done his best work on the Fair Grounds turf over the years, but was third in November's River City over the Churchill lawn in his only local try. Seems destined for a wide trip given his running style and wide draw unless patient Joel Rosario takes him back off the pace more than his usual trip. Tough spot to be in.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
INTEGRATION is 11-for-12 in the superfecta lifetime, gets a great draw and can be counted on for a strong effort.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No big prices jump up as must-uses, so perhaps 15-1 ML IDRATHERBEBLESSED could be used to hang on for a share in a field where he upset several of these at Fair Grounds.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 win INTEGRATION. $25 daily double INTEGRATION to JOURNALISM in Kentucky Derby 151.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2025, 01:16 PM

Scott Shapiro: Kentucky Derby Day Pick 5 Analysis

May 2, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

There are big Pick 5 pools and there is the sequence that ends with the Kentucky Derby. In fact, along with the late pick 5 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday, this is the largest such pool of the year, handling $4.4M in 2024 after a record $5.2M in 2023. So, let’s see if we can take our slice of things in 2025 after failing to do so the last couple of years.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8: Churchill Downs (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4 Giant Mischief; 11 Mullikin; 10 Nysos
Backups: None

Forecast: There is no doubt this 7-furlong dash is one of the most exciting races on the Derby slate with the return of some of potential stars, but from a wagering perspective I struggled a bit.

The last thing you want to do on a day like this is spread without including options that allow you to separate from the public. Since, I have respect for the logicals, yet do not fully trust them it forces me to make some decisions. Using both #7 Mindframe and #10 Nysos is not the right move, especially if I want to include others, so I opted to toss Mindframe. The son of Constitution has never run a bad race, but also has struggled to truly seal the deal of late. He can win, but will likely be an underlay. Nysos upside is obvious, much like #11 Mullikin, but both are coming off layoffs. Mullikin’s is far shorter, but he also does not possess the numbers of the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee. Both are tough to toss, but equally difficult to push all in on.

#4 Giant Mischief may be a cut below, but also is likely to get overlooked. The Brad Cox trainee comes into this spot in the best form of his career and could find himself on the engine over a racetrack he has a first and second over in two tries. He feels like the best potential value in a fun way to start the sequence.

Race 9: American Turf (G1)
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1 Warlander; 4 Mi Bago; 6 Maximum Promise; 7 Zulu Kingdom
Backups: 3 New Century; 8 Charlie’s to Blame; Iron Man Cal

Forecast: This two-turn race for 3YOs over the lawn has busted a lot of horseplayers the last two years, including yours truly. Webslinger at 22-1 was tough enough to come up with, let alone Trikari last year at odds of 47-1. Hopefully, we have the right prices on our tickets in 2025. #1 Warlander should be a big price. He was cost all chance when extremely wide throughout at Keeneland last out. The Kitten’s Joy colt shook off the rust that day and draws the rail. He should move forward, but the question is how much. #4 Mi Bago gave it up badly at Keeneland last out in the Transylvania (G3), but that was a race and a turf course that favored off the pace. He is dangerous on the front end. #6 Maximum Promise has only won once, but has run better than looks in his races against stakes foes. He is another that has a chance with the right trip to blow this thing open for the third consecutive year.

Race 10: Derby City Distaff (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2 Kopion
Backups: 13 My Mane Squeeze; 8 Ways and Means; 11 Positano Sunset; 3 Benedetta

Forecast: As my colleague Jeremy Plonk said, this 7-furlong dash for the ladies has the class and depth to pass for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. There are some prices that have a chance to outrun their odds, but #2 Kopion stands out a bit, especially at anything close to her 8-1-morning line offering. The Omaha Beach filly is a perfect 4 for 4 in her one-turn races, comes in off a pair of dominant performances against the best in California, and should get a favorable forward voyage under jockey Kazushi Kimura.

I will use several as backups, including a bit of a reach in #3 Benedetta. She is probably not fast enough to win, but has been up against a bit in her last couple and appears ready for her best. I will mostly try to sneak her underneath in the exotics, but leaving her off at 30-1 does not feel like a good life choice.

Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Cameo Performance; 3 Highway Robber; 4 Redistricting
Backups: 1 Integration; 7 Running Bee

Forecast: This is about as great of a Derby card as I can recall and this year’s Turf Classic (G1) is potentially a solid wagering opportunity for some, but this field is not of true Grade 1 quality. That said, I am hopeful to separate from the masses in this 9-furlong test over the Churchill lawn.

#5 Cameo Performance would do just that. The Brian Lynch trainee needs to run the race of his life, but that is well within the range of outcomes after his better than looks third-place finish in the Muniz Memorial (G2) at Fair Grounds in late March. Not only was that race won on the front end, but it was Cameo Performance’s first start since last August. Hopefully, he handles the class hike. I will use others though as well in a race where I do not trust the favorites, but lack a super strong opinion.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)
Grade: A-
Main Ticket: #8 Journalism
Backups: 21 Baeza

Forecast: Any horseplayer that plays horizontal wagers dreams of getting to the Derby with a chance to close out a big score. There is no time like the present, especially since I am willing to go thin in 2025.

Like many, #8 Journalism has been at the top of my list ever since his dominant victory in the San Felipe (G2) in early March. He showed his talent that afternoon and then the ability to handle adversity during his narrow victory against #21 Baeza a little over a month later. He is likely to be closer to the pace than many project and is extremely likely to be a major factor late. Barring a bad trip, he should run a big one for Michael McCarthy.
The scratch of Rodriguez allowed Baeza to draw into the field off the also-eligible list. The well-bred son of McKinzie has done virtually nothing wrong since moving to the dirt, lures the best rider in the game, and could get a bit forgotten by some that had already made up their mind on their tickets or opinions. I will include him with my top plays in the first four legs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2025, 01:17 PM

What You Need to Know - Churchill Downs - 5/3/25

May 2, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, May 3, 2025
Churchill Downs

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Churchill Downs Race 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8-Sansone; 11-Coffee Talk; 12-Chillax
Backups: 2-Cromwell; 4-Sturdy.

Forecast: The Derby Day opener is a messy maiden main track affair in which nothing would surprise, especially if the track comes up wet. Use as many as you can afford to. Sansone was well-backed in his debut at Saratoga last summer and was virtually eased but returned to display some promise when a willing and solid runner-up in a representative extended sprint at Gulfstream Park (didn’t get the clearest or runs) and seems quite likely to produce a forward move on the stretch out for Shug. Based strictly on the number he earned in that race the son of Uncle Mo is a solid fit against this group and his morning line of 6-1 makes him intriguing. Coffee Talk shows an improving pattern – he was a strong runner-up at Keeneland at 21-1 two turning last month – and not much more will be needed today. Chillax is stuck outside but has the best number in the field (86 Beyer last time out when taking a lot of dirt in traffic) so if he can get over and negotiate a decent trip the son of Bernardini should be a major player throughout.

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Churchill Downs Race 2: Post: 11:32 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10 Generous Lover; 7-Normandy Queen
Backups: 4-Home Game; 5-Tapit Quick.

Forecast: Generous Lover has been away since October but if she repeats her best form from last year the daughter of Bolt d’Oro can handle this assignment. She’s a versatile type that can handle any distance or surface and this one turn mile should be right up her alley. A recent bullet work for her high percentage connections should have her right on edge. Normandy Queen earned a career top number when second at this level at Oaklawn Park last month around two turns. She’s another that should enjoy this shorter distance and projects to find herself on or near the lead throughout. We’ll make her a “must use” at 9/2 on the morning line with the switch to F. Prat.

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Churchill Downs Race 3: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Goal Oriented; 11-Sorcerer’s Silver.
Backups: 3-Valentinian; 6-Rapture.

Forecast: Despite racing greenly during the early stages, Goal Oriented rallied from last to first – almost an impossible task sprinting at Santa Anita – to win his debut like a good thing for B. Baffert and in the process gave every indication that he’ll be even better with experience and distance. This is a stakes quality first level allowance field that may even produce a starter or two in the Preakness. We’re thinking that this colt could be of that ilk. Sorcerer’s Silver was equally impressive in his maiden tally sprinting at Gulfstream Park but had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post. He’s a lovely mover and a terrific athlete with a pedigree to stay the trip but he’ll have to be pretty special to win under these circumstances. At the price, you have to include him somewhere.

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Churchill Downs Race 4: Post: 12:38 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9-Liberal Arts; 6-Kapuna; 3-Accretive.
Backups: 5-Keen Cat; 10-Implementation; New King.

Forecast: This is an inscrutable overnight stakes for older horses; we’ll have six on our ticket and even that might not be enough. Liberal Arts is a two-time winner over the Churchill Downs main track and that alone makes him a major contender. His recent two races were below his best but perhaps a return to the Louisville track will snap him back. Kapuna has races that are good enough to win but you’ll have to get past the fact that he’s blanked in eight starts under Twin Spires. Accretive hails from a high percentage outfit and arrives fresh from a highly rated off track win in Louisiana. He's 6-1 on the morning line and has a decent look at that price.

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Churchill Downs Race 5: Post: 1:12 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Sacred Wish; 10-Special Wan (Ire).
Backups: 2-Movin; On Up.

Forecast: Sacred Wish returns to Grade 2 company in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile and appears to have found a winning spot. She employs an effective second flight stalking strategy that usually keeps her free and clear of trouble and based on her recent strong and consistent figures seems certain to be in the fray throughout. Special Wan (Ire) has won two of three since being imported from Europe and may be the one to beat. Her recent win in the Honey Fox S.-G3 was visually quite pleasing and it would be surprising If she weren’t highly competitive right back.

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Churchill Downs Race 6: Post: 1:53 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Built.
Backups: 6-Gaming.

Forecast: If Built is going to be a legitimate player in this year’s sophomore class we suspect it’ll be under the conditions of the Pat Day Mile-G2. Yes, he did win around two turns earlier this year when benefitting from a phony slow pace that gave his connections the false hope that he would develop into Derby material, but the evidence since then suggests the son of Hard Spun has distance limitations and almost certainly will prove to be most effective around one turn up to a mile. Freshened and showing a considerable amount of spark in the morning in recent weeks, the W. Catalano-trained colt switches to U. Rispoli and should get the patient ride he apparently prefers. Assuming we’re correct about his preferred style and trip, this is a race he can win. Gaming is another that should show his best stuff under these conditions. The winner of the Del Mar Futurity-G1 over seven furlongs last summer, the B. Baffert-trained colt has been flattening out going long in subsequent races but should have no excuses at this extended one turn distance.

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Churchill Downs Race 7: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Nobals; 8-Rogue Lightning (Ire); 7-Think Big.
Backups: 5-Arrest Me Red.

Forecast: This group tends to take turns, so anything goes. Nobals is partial to the Churchill Downs turf course so on that angle alone we’ll put him slightly on top in this year’s edition of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint-G2 at 6-1 on the morning line. He’s one of several in the field capable of winning. Rogue Lightning (IRE) ran a terrific race in his U.S. debut at Keeneland when collared late in the Shakertown S.-G2 and a repeat of that performance could easily be good enough. edged ‘Lighting in that race at Keeneland with a courageous late surge that produced a career top number, and with just eight career outings the son of Twirling Candy most likely has yet to reach his peak.

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Churchill Downs Race 8: Post: 3:23 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 10-Nysos; 2-Banishing; 7-Mindframe.
Backups: 11-Mullikin.

Forecast: Up until the time he was injured in early February of last year, Nysos was America’s best 3-year-old with a resume that rivaled trainer Bob Baffert’s most recent Triple Crown winner, Justify. However, after three runaway victories by a combined nearly 27 lengths that included a pair of graded stakes scores, the son of Nyquist was stopped on, returned to training briefly in October, stopped on again, and now finally makes it back to action in a killer of a race, the $1 million Churchill Downs Stakes-G1 over a salty seven furlongs. He’s trained as well as ever in recent works to indicate he’s retained all of his speed, but this assignment couldn’t have come up much tougher. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, he’s a modest gamble at that price, but we wouldn’t take anything less. Banishing turns back to a sprint – he’s tough at any distance – and has been thoroughly consistent based on his speed figures (all very fast) for trainer D. Jacobson, who took over training last summer of the Ghostzapper gelding, who has never been worse than second in eight starts since the barn change. Mindframe, himself a high class member of the 2024 sophomore class, returned in winning form in his first outing since July with a facile score in the Gulfstream Park Mile-G2 in early March and has trained steadily and sharply since. In his only previous race at this distance (his debut) a year ago March, the son of Constitution won by almost 14 lengths. However, he’s never produced a number quite as fast as what it may take to beat Nysos or Banishing.

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Churchill Downs Race 9: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: A
Main Ticket: 10-Iron Man Cal
Backups: 7-Zulu Kingdom.

Forecast: Iron Man Cal developed into an outstanding 2-year-old turf performer and when last seen missed by a neck while perhaps best in the 2024 BC Juvenile Turf S.-G1. We’re expecting even better things this time around based on the way he’s been breezing (brilliantly) for trainer P. D’Amato leading up to 3-year-old debut. The son of Collected has excellent tactical speed but can really finish, too, and if he performs up to expectations in this year’s edition of the American Turf S.-G1 he’ll offer extreme value at or near his morning line of 9/2. Simply put, we regard him as one of the best gambles on the card.

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Churchill Downs Race 10: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Kopion
Backups: 8-Ways and Means.

Forecast: Kopion was absolutely stunning in a pair of fast, highly rated graded stakes wins this winter at Santa Anita, first winning the La Brea S.-G1 at the absurd price of 37-1 and then proving that performance was no fluke but coming back to dispose of older rivals (this time at 6/5) in the Santa Monica S.-G1 in early February with a BC-level speed figure of 110. Both of those races were over seven furlongs, the same as today’s Derby City Distaff-G1. In the interim the daughter of Omaha Beach has looked every bit as sharp now as she’s always been through a series of breezes that have kept her right on edge. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, the R. Mandella-trained filly is a major gamble at that number and remains so even at a few ticks lower on the tote, which seems likely.

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Churchill Downs Race 11: Post: 2:39 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Running Bee; 10-Spirit of St Louis.
Backups: 3-Highway Robbery; 1-Integration.

Forecast: Runaway Bee rates the call in this typically competitive edition of the Turf Classic-G1 over nine furlongs. Winner of four of his last six outings, most recently the Tampa Bay S.-G3 in early February, the veteran son of English Channel retains F. Prat and has shown the versatility to win gate to wire or from 10 lengths off the pace, whatever the situation calls for. He’s never been tested over the local lawn but there’s no reason he won’t be inconvenienced, even if there’s a bit of moisture in it. Spirit of St Louis was a beaten favorite when fourth at Fair Grounds last time but overall he’s won 10 of 15 career starts and could easily bounce back. He’s reunited with “win rider” M. Franco and probably is the one to fear most.

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Churchill Downs Race 12: Post: 6:57 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 8-Journalism
Backups: 18-Sovereignty; 10-Grande; 3-Final Gambit.

Forecast: There are nothing but positive factors in the past performance chart of Journalism, which is why he’s listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He may even go a tick or two lower. Fast and dominate on figures and with the pedigree and running style to adore the classic American distance of a mile and one-quarter, the Michael McCarthy-trained sophomore continues to impress in his morning trials leading up to the race, and he couldn’t have drawn better than his eight post position (now seven) in the 20-runner lineup. Sure, if he doesn’t show up with his “A” game, the son of Curlin could get beat, but there is no evidence to expect that. We’ve loved him since his broke his maiden in his second career start at Del Mar in November and everything he’s done since has solidified our opinion that he’s head and shoulders the top colt in his class.

From a gambling standpoint, exacta/trifecta players should consider three horses underneath. Sovereignty will love 10 furlongs, and we already know he loves this main track, having won the Street Sense S.-G3 here last fall by five widening lengths. The Gulfstream Park track profile didn’t fit his deep closing running style when he was second in Florida Derby-G1, but if the pace is faster than par today – and it might be even without the late scratching Rodriguez – the W. Mott-trained son of Into Mischief could make his presence felt late. Grande gives away plenty of experience – he’s only had three races – but he’s a high potential type with rising numbers and the style and pedigree to improve with maturity and distance. His runner-up effort in the Wood Memorial S.-G2, given the race-shape, was borderline outstanding. He’s 20-1 on the morning line and is worth that. Final Gambit is for big price players – he's 30-1 on the morning line – but while he’s unproven over conventional dirt and he’s entirely pace dependent the son of Not This Time has a chance to at least hit the board if he can transfer his all-weather form to this main track.

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Churchill Downs Race 13: Post: 8:00 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 14-Big Truzz; 11-Patch Adams.
Backups: 9-Romanesque.

Forecast: We’re not sure Big Truzz was anywhere near cranked up in his debut last month at Keeneland but that didn’t stop the son of Justify from demolishing his maiden rivals with a powerful late kick and strong Beyer (86) speed figure. He returns in three weeks on the one level raise at this same six and one-half furlong distance, and from his outside draw the B. Lynch-trained sophomore can settle early and then blast home from the quarter pole to the wire. If he’s as good as we think he is, he can win right back. Patch Adams shortens to a sprint after two failed runs over a distance of ground. If you expect him to return to his runaway sprint maiden win three races back that produced a stakes quality 98 Beyer speed figure, the son of Into Mischief should leave as the logical favorite, especially with the addition of Lasix and the switch back to F. Prat. This looks like a legitimate graded stakes race masquerading as a first level allowance dash, and it will take a very good colt to win it.

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Churchill Downs Race 14: Post: 8:33 ET Grade: A
Main Ticket: 12-Pursuitneversleeps
Backups: 14-Mainstream; 4-Advanced Spirit.

Forecast: Pursuitneversleeps deserved better when finishing a smart second in a fast, highly rated six furlong maiden affair at Gulfstream Park in mid-March in a race already franked by the winner of that race, Here Comes Francis, who returned to pulverize a first level allowance field at Tampa Bay Downs in his next outing. This son of Ghostzapper wound up more than 10 lengths clear of the rest, galloped out past ‘Francis into the clubhouse turn, and earned a 93 Beyer figure, good enough to win many stakes races around these parts, let alone a maiden event. His morning line in today’s race of 3-1 belongs in fantasy land, but, hey, if we can get It, we’ll take it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:36 AM

What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/3/25

May 3, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, 3, 2025
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5-News At Ten (GB); 6-Travelin’ Show.
Backups: 4-Gazon.

Forecast: The opener is a contentious starter optional claiming turf sprint, with several possibilities to consider. News At Ten may be as good as any in his first outing since being claimed for $50,000 in mid-March by P. Eurton. He’s winless in five prior outings over the local lawn but is solid on numbers and should be heard from in the final stages. Travelin’ Show, fourth in the same race our top pick just finished second in, is another that projects to be doing his best work late. It’s been awhile since he’s won, but he’s been first or second in four of nine starts over this course and won’t have to improve much to win.

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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-Maria Tallchief; 6-Big Whoosh
Backups: none.

Forecast: The first time-for-a-tag maneuver always is a strong angle, and Maria Tallchief may have found her friends in this maiden $50,000 extended sprint state-bred fillies and mares. The main question is the switch from grass to dirt and whether she’ll be able to transfer her turf figures to the main track but on pedigree she shouldn’t have an issue with the new surface. But while she does look like the logical top pick at 9/5 on the morning line, class dropper Big Whoosh, who also sports the route-to-sprint angle, has a right to be considered as well, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while otherwise sit it out.

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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5-Zombo Bombo; 1-Naftis.
Backups: 6-Cupid’s Crusader.

Forecast: Zombo Bombo drops to his lowest level ever, returns to dirt, and rates a slight edge with a repeat of any of his best main track speed figures. However, he was beaten at 4/5 two runs back, so the Munnings gelding isn’t entirely trustworthy, thus requiring us to spread a bit in rolling exotic play. Naftis has similar concerns, having failed as the chalk in a grass sprint facing tougher last time out. He, too, is returning to dirt and showing up cheap but draws the rail and probably will have to be used hard early. This looks like a good race to sit out.

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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Glamora; 6-Cloudy Women.
Backups: 1-Infinity Dream.

Forecast: Glamora, away for a couple of months and showing up in a seller for the first time, has numbers that are shrinking, certainly not a desirable pattern, but the daughter of has enough early speed to gain a favorable stalking/pressing position and may get brave against this modest group. The P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred makes her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and sharper today, so we’ll give her no excuses. Cloudy Women also drops to the maiden $50,000 level but is slower on numbers than our top pick. The J. Sadler-trained filly likely will be doing her best stuff late.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Fibonaccis Ride:
Backups: 1-Gracie’s Big Day.

Forecast: Fibonaccis Ride won her debut at Los Alamitos last September in stylish fashion but then disappeared. She returns in this first level allowance dash for fillies and mares showing a recent bullet gate drill for trainer C. De Alba to indicate she’s fit and ready and based on the number she earned in her only outing the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should be quite capable of handling the class hike. Furthermore, she projects to be the quickest of the quick.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 7-Atitlan; 3-City Exile (GB).
Backups: none.

Forecast: If Atitlan can turn in two alike, he can win this year’s edition of the Charles Whittingham S.-G2, but the California-based long distance grass runners usually take turns, so who really knows? He earned a career top figure when manhandling his foes in the recent San Luis Rey S.-G3 over 12 furlong; let’s see if he can do the same at a mile and one-quarter. City Exile has risen from the allowance ranks to face his stiffest task to date but could easily be this good in his present form. He’s been primarily a miler since being imported from Ireland but did well over 11 furlongs at Del Mar last summer so today’s mini-marathon distance should prove to be no obstacle. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:28 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket 8-Go Go Prancer; 5-Proud Racer
Backups: 3-Subic Boy.

Forecast: Go Go Prancer lands the cozy outside draw in his first start since being gelded and his second off layoff, so the P. D’Amato-trained maiden should be set for a career top effort in this maiden dash for state-bred runners. He gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Carmona and projects to be on or near the lead throughout while returning to dirt, which we suspect is his preferred surface. Proud Racer adds blinkers for the first time after missing by a nose at odds-on in a maiden claiming sprint here almost two months ago. The raise to straight maiden company shows confidence and his numbers are gradually rising so we’ll toss in him just in case our top pick fails to fire.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-El Rey Rey; 2-Lottery Pick.
Backups: 9-Coalinga Road.

Forecast: EL Rey Rey is one of several in this nine furlong turf affair that have credentials to win. He was a close fourth as the favorite in a similar affair in late March but has three prior victories over the local lawn so off his best race the H. Palma-trained gelding should be a major player. Lottery Pick hasn’t won in a while and lacks tactical speed but his best puts him in the fray and from where he’s dawn the son of American Freedom projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip and have his chance to make an impact from the quarter pole home. A repeat of his last race – a strong runner-up effort over a mile – charts well here and the today’s extra furlong really shouldn’t hurt.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Little Ditty; 10-Majestic Palisades.
Backups: 3-Silver N Black.

Forecast: Let’s take a shot with in this lackluster maiden $20,000 main track miler for older horses. Now in the J. Mullins barn (that’s always a good thing), the son of Practical Joke exits a pair of much tougher straight maiden races on turf, gets in light with the switch to bug boy Carmona, and shows a healthy series of drills for his first start since Mid-March. Can he run? We’ll find out today at 12-1 on the morning line. Majestic Palisades has form that makes him the logical top pick (he’s been in the frame in all five career starts) but he’s been away since January, and he gets the worst of the draw. He’s the 8/5 morning line favorite by default.

__________________________________________________ ________
Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Sweet Gal of Mine; 2-Invicible Molly.
Backups: 1-Thermal; 8-Andiamo Ragazza.

Forecast: The finale is a raffle sprinting on grass for first level allowance fillies and mares. Sweet Gal of Mine is eligible for valuable ship-and-win money in her first start since arriving from Kentucky and her first outing since early January for new trainer R. Baltas and could easily be a better type on this circuit. The daughter of Dialed In has enough tactical speed to always be wining range and shows back numbers that make her dangerous at 6-1 on the morning line. She’s worth a bit of a gamble. Invincible Molly has the blinkers off angle that always catches the eye while making her first start since August for J. Mullins. This drop into the $50,000 ranks is a realistic maneuver and with numbers from last year that fit at this level the English-bred filly looks dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 3, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway finishes the week with a 9-race card. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:25 PM EDT)

4-Don'ttellmenow (2-1)-Beaten odds on chalk has a chance to make amends versus this field. Dan Dube takes over for Jason Bartlett and that should help the price. Has the gate speed to get the top or a pocket ride in a field that isn't salty.
6-Rockinbilly'sDream (4-1)-Came 1st over and was in the mix down the stretch but faded to finish 3rd at 20-1. Showed some determination for the 1st time since being claimed on 3-19 and will look for the upswing to continue.

Race 7 (9:05 PM EDT)

2-Vespa N (7/2)-Got an efficient trip and was able to roll by down the lane. Paced a .56 back half and could get a similar trip leaving from the inside again. Mark MacDonald takes the lines and should offer a square price.

Race 8 (9:25 PM EDT)

3-Ma Isabelle (8/5)-Beat this kind 2 back and then shipped to PcD and took another picture. Comes back at the same level as when last here and could keep winning for team Lachance.
4-Shes A Shoe In (5/2)-Ray Schnittker owns and trains the Greenshoe filly making her 3-year-old debut. The qualifier on 4-25 at YR was nothing special. But was well staked and beat some nice 2-year-olds last year. Faces some older gals here but could be a player if dialed on high.

Race 9 (9:45 PM EDT)

6-Just Rosas Luck (5/2)-Makes the 1st start after a claim for the DiDomenico stable and George Brennan gets the call. This barn posts 24% winners following a claim. Willing to toss last, the trip was bumpy and should fit nicely with this crew. Cashes checks on a regular basis with this kind and an aggressive steer should happen as soon as the wings fold.

$4 Late Pick 4

4,6/2/3,4/6
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4

#7 Glamora	She'll try this cheaper kind of spot for the first time today after a flat return run, but there's room to come forward today on the drop.
#10 Motet	She should be a decent price while dropping, and she was competitive for this kind of price on the dirt at Los Al a couple starts back. Enough to like.
#1 Infinity Dream	She finished up with a little bit of belated enthusiasm in the debut try, and that effort probably leaves her enough upside in the second career start to be competitive. In the mix.
Race Summary	Glamora can be tough while trying this kind of group, and I'm wondering if she gets a confidence boost with a score today and then steps back into tougher spots again.

Santa Anita - Race #6

#4 Maltese Falcon	His last was solid enough and might set him up for a competitive run today. There are enough forward players lined up here to think he can settle off the splits and get the last laugh.
#7 Atitlan	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone leaning hard here in hopes that he's just too good -- he's another honest finisher with a good setup waiting for him, and tactical enough to stay in touch if some of the pace backs out.
#3 City Exile	Tactical pace scored at a distance trip at Del Mar last summer, and he should be able to get first jump on the top pair. One of the ones.
Race Summary	A few fun faces lined up here, but I'm hoping Maltese Falcon can outfinish Atitlan at a midrange price. He'll run on the hike for the new team and gets a good race flow on paper.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#1 Thermal	Inside pace could take the worst of it if all the potential speed shows, but I think a few of those forward players might be happy to sit just a touch and hope the interesting Gulfstream shipper #4 Entrepreneurship will soften her up.
#10 Tam's Little Angel	She wasn't up to task in stakes company last out, but her baseline form is competitive with these, and she could get right back to her winning ways with the softer crew today.
#12 Crossanna	She brings a decent little Illinois pedigree with her to this spot after graduating in her third start at Hawthorne, and she might like finishing at this kind of local trip. Not impossible as a reach, but I think she's most likely to come alive late for a piece at an OK price.
Race Summary	Thermal goes third off the long layoff, and she took a nice step forward last time out, offering hope that she's still shaking off the rust. Best stuff today?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:38 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#9 WILD PRINCESS (5-2)	Ran well in lone try on dirt, takes magnified drop in field of unproven routers.
#3 CROSSATI (5-1)	Ran into traffic at top of stretch in race dominated by deep closers.
#10 TARIBA DREAM (2-1)	Piling up the checks but burning money along the way, post 10 no help.
Race Summary	WILD PRINCESS stalked the 7-2 , first-out winner in the 3-path and held okay for third in a higher-tagged sprint two starts back. She fired a blank in a follow-up turf route but should make her presence felt from the outset in this field. Bet to win and place and play a 3, 9/3, 9, 10/ALL trifecta.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#3 ACQUISITIVE (4-1)	Eventful trip on drop to this level, clear third behind well-meant firster.
#1 NIGHT OF MAGIC (Even)	Looks best on paper, set fast pace at this level when blinkers were added.
#6 HABANA BOY (2-1)	Disputed pace but faded in stretch in both 6F starts on the dirt.
Race Summary	ACQUISITIVE was hard to load, crowded shortly after the break and drifted in the stretch while finishing a clear third to a runaway debut winner. She changes riders for her second start off a three-month layoff for this barn. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-6 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#7 ALL THE RAGE (5-1)	Sprung 17-1 upset off similar rest, disappeared in rapid-paced follow-up.
#4 COPAZO (8-5)	Rallied for second in pair of fast-paced sprints at this level in two starts this year.
#1 INDULGE (3-1)	Earned big number in defeat last out, longer distance should help.
Race Summary	ALL THE RAGE seeks a duplicate run of his upset win two starts back off similar rest. He gained 4-wide on the turn as the pace collapsed and surged to victory in late stretch in his third start as a gelding. Bet to win and place and play 7-1 and 7-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 91 • Purse: $80,000 • Post: 4:11P
HONEY RYDER S. GP - R7 - (RAIL AT 66 FEET). FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, APRIL 20. $800 TO ENTER. A $100 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE MAY BE MADE PRIOR TO CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 60% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A STAKE ON TURF ALLOWED 3 LBS.; A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE, 5 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED BY USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. ALL FEES SHALL BE PAID PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RACE. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO STAKES WINNERS, STAKES PLACED THEN BY HIGHEST CAREER EARNINGS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILLBE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. STARSHIP IMPULSIVE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STARSHIP IMPULSIVE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race w ithin the last 30 days. SPECIAL AVIATOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SPIRITED BOSS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days . Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CURLAINE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	STARSHIP IMPULSIVE	5/1	3/1
5	SPECIAL AVIATOR	4/1	7/1
2	SPIRITED BOSS	8/5	7/1
6	CURLAINE	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	SHESHIMAINTENANCE	7	12/1	Front-runner	75	75	72.4	68.2	55.2
3	STARSHIP IMPULSIVE	3	5/1	Stalker	85	91	99.5	86.3	80.8
4	IT'S WITCHCRAFT	4	7/2	Stalker	84	80	58.8	71.1	57.1
2	SPIRITED BOSS	2	8/5	Stalker	88	92	55.0	75.8	69.8
6	CURLAINE	6	8/1	Stalker	83	79	32.2	78.7	71.2
5	SPECIAL AVIATOR	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	82	73.3	77.2	70.2
1	ANNIE GOODBODY	1	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	78	71.6	74.0	62.0
8	ORIGAMI (IRE)	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	82	71.1	74.0	68.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Three Year Old Pick 3
Stakes • 1 1/4 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 107 • Purse: $5,000,000 • Post: 6:57P
KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY WOODFORD RESERVE CD - R12 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * JOURNALISM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. RODRIGUEZ: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BAEZA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CITIZEN BULL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. COAL BATTLE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
8	JOURNALISM	3/1	7/2
4	RODRIGUEZ	12/1	7/1
21	BAEZA	12/1	9/1
1	CITIZEN BULL	20/1	9/1
16	COAL BATTLE	30/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	AMERICAN PROMISE	5	30/1	Front-runner	99	102	95.8	93.4	61.9
2	NEOEQUOS	2	30/1	Front-runner	99	92	91.3	88.4	49.9
4	RODRIGUEZ	4	12/1	Front-runner	104	102	87.2	101.0	89.5
12	EAST AVENUE	12	20/1	Front-runner	97	101	87.2	88.1	70.1
1	CITIZEN BULL	1	20/1	Front-runner	104	107	81.9	100.2	81.2
20	OWEN ALMIGHTY	20	30/1	Front-runner	97	97	81.4	94.3	67.3
21	BAEZA	21	12/1	Stalker	102	106	92.2	99.1	81.1
10	GRANDE	10	20/1	Stalker	97	98	89.6	91.8	71.3
16	COAL BATTLE	16	30/1	Stalker	104	99	87.8	91.8	65.8
8	JOURNALISM	8	3/1	Trailer	106	109	87.6	105.9	101.4
11	FLYING MOHAWK	11	30/1	Trailer	94	94	81.5	86.3	49.8
17	SANDMAN	17	6/1	Trailer	104	103	79.2	98.4	85.9
14	TIZTASTIC	14	20/1	Trailer	102	98	78.4	93.6	77.1
13	PUBLISHER	13	30/1	Trailer	101	100	78.2	93.6	75.6
18	SOVEREIGNTY	18	5/1	Trailer	99	96	76.0	92.6	71.1
19	CHUNK OF GOLD	19	30/1	Trailer	99	94	73.3	89.3	62.8
9	BURNHAM SQUARE	9	12/1	Trailer	99	99	71.8	94.0	73.5
3	FINAL GAMBIT	3	30/1	Trailer	95	90	70.4	89.3	62.3
15	RENDER JUDGMENT	15	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	98	89	74.8	86.6	54.1

Unknown Running Style: ADMIRE DAYTONA (JPN) (30/1) [Jockey: Lemaire Christophe - Trainer: Kato Yukihiro], LUXOR CAFE (15/1) [Jockey: Moreira Joao - Trainer: Hori Noriyuki].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - SO - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 HORSES IN FOR THE CLAIMING PRICE ALLOWED 5 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 YOU KNOW ME 7/2
# 4 DELICATE 3/1
# 8 VICKI VALE 9/2

YOU KNOW ME has a solid shot to take this race. Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. The Equibase speed fig of 61 from her most recent contest looks quite good in here. A solid 76 avg class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group. DELICATE - Adorno will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this competition. Last time out, this filly faced a much tougher bunch. VICKI VALE - Has been consistently racing well lately. Has ran quite well in dirt sprint races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Handicap Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 91

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, LA PACIFICA H. - FOR FILLIES, THREE YEAR OLD'S, BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $50 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION, OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $350 EACH BY CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. ALL HORSES SHALL PAY $300 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 HOTT TEMPTATION 7/5
# 5 POWERFUL WISE LADY 3/1
# 3 BEACH WALK 5/2

HOTT TEMPTATION looks to be the bet in here. With a solid 83 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group. Has been running soundly lately and ought to be up near the front end early on. POWERFUL WISE LADY - Earned a competitive speed figure last time out. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most respectable class figures of this group. BEACH WALK - Always seems to be right there at the finishing post. Has been racing solidly in races of this distance, going 3 out of 10 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:30pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#8 MISS DOUBLE DOWN (ML=5/1)
#3 COCONUT DREAMS (ML=9/2)

MISS DOUBLE DOWN - This filly is in fine physical condition. Ran third on April 10th. COCONUT DREAMS - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Martinez. Don't discount that last race. The horse fired out with good early speed, only to drop back and then hold ground to the finish. Ranked number one in earnings per start. Another confirmation that this horse is classy.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CAPE BLOSSOM (ML=3/1), #10 CANTPUTAPRICEONFUN (ML=4/1), #1 GUARD YOUR SPOT (ML=6/1),

CAPE BLOSSOM - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended layoff and no drop in level of competition. When examining today's class figure, she will have to garner a much better speed figure than last out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. CANTPUTAPRICEONFUN - I just don't possess a 'use' vibe about this mount in this event. GUARD YOUR SPOT - Trying to beat this one this time out at the value of 6/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - COCONUT DREAMS - This race horse is getting the medication Lasix, in today's event. Watch for a good one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 MISS DOUBLE DOWN to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #11 - Post: 5:51pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#4 HOT ROD RUMBLE (ML=6/1)
#6 PRINCE OF JOY (ML=12/1)
#2 ALLURE OF MONEY (ML=7/2)

HOT ROD RUMBLE - This gelding should be in fine form, this far into his form cycle. Entered a $16,000 Claiming race at Aqueduct in the last race and raced in the slop finishing fifth. Should do better right here. PRINCE OF JOY - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Dropping 13 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. ALLURE OF MONEY - This gelding is in the top spot in (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this horse before the race. This gelding gets a weight break of -11 lbs from last race. Its possible this could make the difference in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BRONX BOMBER (ML=2/1), #5 HONORARY DEGREE (ML=5/2), #3 RETURN THE RING (ML=6/1),

BRONX BOMBER - This thoroughbred likes to be in the money, but doesn't usually win. Keep out of the top spot. HONORARY DEGREE - Awfully hard to bet on this horse when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. Not likely that the speed figure he garnered on Apr 17th will hold up in this race. RETURN THE RING - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of outings. Tough to wager on any horse in a sprint affair at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last couple months. This racer ran a quite unimpressive speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat today running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ALLURE OF MONEY - Some may pass on this one given his lackluster effort at Aqueduct in last race. But that was in the slop. Beware of this horse today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 HOT ROD RUMBLE to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-03-2025, 12:20 PM

Anita Marks' Kentucky Derby Exotics

Exacta: 3-horse box

- 3 Final Gambit, 8 Journalism, 9 Burham Square

Trifecta
Win: 3, 8 and 9
Place: 3, 8 and 9
Show: 3, 7, 8, 9, 13, 18