Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

[spuddy999]

Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

2H LAL Didn't fit... WAY over 2H... MIL must have believed they were still in this one after half, perhaps inspired by the low 1Q total & really low 2Q total... Lakers 1H lead needed to be larger here for the angle to fit on this one...

2H LAL -5.5
2H Under 103.5 (heavy)

[spuddy999]

Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

BOS is up like 25 @ SAC at halftime - gametime line was Bos -13 O/U 197

2H PLAY will be on BOS & UNDER
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2H BOS +0.5
2H Under 97

Please ENJOY cashing this with me...

GL Everybody!
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2nd Half-

BOS 49
SAC 29

Covered:
2H BOS +0.5 by 20.5
2H Under 97 by 18.5

Stay tuned...
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Still working on this 'system'... (only quitters end up losing)...

In the future, I'll try to post these as early as I start to see this lucrative situation developing...

Like tonight, I'll post early & then update the post with my plays right after the lines hit the boards and I get locked in.

If you see a rout on (that is, a good team up like 20 vs relatively weak team), it's likely this situation fits...

It looks like young teams & the NYN & GSW seem to not know to give up and usually push these OVER and often cover 2H - I'll be avoiding these plays, or maybe even reversing the 'system' where these teams are involved.

Also-
If the halftime score is way low in a game where the total is expected to be HIGH, the 2H Under probably won't fit, extra especially if it's a team with no-D, like GSW or NYN mentioned above.

I'll keep tweeking this - please let me know if you have any further insight here...

[spuddy999]

Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

12/30
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at the half
MIN 62
DAL 40

tipp-off line DAL -13 o/u 197


PLAY 2H MIN & UNDER...
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2H MINN +12.5
2H UNDER 101.5

(...and both are rising, as expected)
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Did not fit here -

The LESSER team was up at the half this time, DAL rightfully believed they could come back and win this thing, which they did and this also led to the 2H Over.
2H
MIN 38
DAL 67

FINAL
MIN 100
DAL 107

The STRONGER team (preferably at home, but don't exclude a strong team on the road) needs to be the one up like 20 at the half, NEVER the WEAKER team, as witnessed above.
When the weaker team is up at the half, the play is the one anyone would guess, that is, for the stronger team to come back and to put up points in heroic fasion...

I'll keep working on this...

[quicksilverguy01]

Re: Spuddy's Favarite NBA SITUATION PLAY... at the Half

Washington vs Boston at half time: 34-58 in favor of Boston. The line was -27, the total for the 2nd half was -188. I had no doubt in my mind that this was a route. After the third quarter, the score is 55-86. Looking right to be on track.

The Boston coach, however, decides to leave the entire Boston bench on for the last quarter. I bet 3K on the line, and as a result I lose 3K as they fail to cover as the bench failed to defend the points coming through. Why do coaches do this? At least put a few starters on to win the quarter and have a comprehensive 4 quarter crushing victory.

I don't think betting on a huge under is at all viable any more given that coaches / players (even referees) will do everything in their power to bring the scores down a bit.