Longhorn Picks

[txlonghorn90]

Howdy Ya'll.

I'm new to this forum so starting a bit late. None the less I'll try and post my best ideas and see what happens when stacked up against the very esteemed pickers on this board.

Took me a while to track down CPAW again and glad I found this site.

I college football this week two plays jump out:

Texas Tech - 17 over Kansas

As a Big XII alum I can say that Kansas is just awful. Texas Tech and the air raid offense on the other side are really good. I'll take an angry Tech team after what should have been a W against OK. St. against a porous Kansas secondary.

Miami - 3 over FSU

This is all about emotion. 18 year old kids need to be excited to Amy at their best. Richt will have his team fired up after years of getting pounded by FSU. The Noles O line has more holes than Midland Odessa has oil wells so expecting a rough day for FSU

Would love to hear any contrary opinions.

[Mr. IWS]

Glad to have you here.

Nothing for me in that Kansas game but Im probably going to be on Miami as well.

[DaKid]

Solid bud

[txlonghorn90]

Thanks. Let's see what happens.

[txlonghorn90]

Adding Texas A&M +15.5 1H only

Historically A&M has run with Alabama for the first 2 quarters. At home in Kyle Field with the 12th man active I'm thinking Sumlin and his boys have a lot to prove. As much as I hate the Aggies, I think they stay close in the 1st H.

[txlonghorn90]

To recap 3 Plays for tomorrow:

- Texas Tech -17 over Kansas (this line has moved down to -15 and I actually got my ticket at -14 by buying 1/2 point). None the less, was -17 when I made the post so stand behind it.
- Miami -3 (play of the day)
- Texas A&M +15.5 1H only against the Crimson Tide

[Mr. IWS]

I like the A&M play bro. Ill be on them for the game myself.

[Mr. IWS]

Hell of a day! What a finish in Miami!!!!

[txlonghorn90]

No doubt. That FSU-Miami game was much closer than I anticipated. Very surprised that Miami could not move the ball in the 1st half. Good week so far. We'll see if I can keep it up or not.

[txlonghorn90]

Starting to look at Week 7 games. One game jumps out at me immediately. A very strong play on:

North Texas +3 over UTSA

This line makes no sense to me whatsoever. Two small schools probably with little betting action gives us great line value here. UNT is a very good football team. Their two losses were to Iowa and SMU both of which are non-conference and very strong opponents. UTSA on the other hand just started conference play and immediately tanked last week losing to Southern Miss. UNT beat Southern Miss 43-28 two weeks ago. The UTSA "signature win" was over a very weak Baylor squad at the beginning of the year so I discount the value of that W. Their other opponents were all cupcakes (Tx State and Southern) which they won easily.

This is a flat out line mismatch as UNT should win easily. I'm backing up the truck on this one while the line is still healthy in UNT's favor.

More later.

[txlonghorn90]

I like to make my plays early to get the best lines. Once the touts release saturday AM and the degenerates wake up and get to the window you never know what is going to happen. My plays for Week 7 are:

North Texas +3 over UTSA ( I realize line is down to +2 or +2.5 today but was at +3 yesterday when I posted and my ticket is at +3)
Auburn -7 over LSU (everyone thinks LSU is back just because they beat a mediocre Florida team)
Michigan State - 4 over Minnesota (PJ FLeck will not be able to row the boat against the Sparty defense)

Good luck to all

[txlonghorn90]

I started posting in Week 6. Updated results below (assume $1,000 per play):

Week 6 - 3 wins 0 losses (+$3,000)
Week 7 - 2 wins 1 loss (+900)

On to Week 8

[txlonghorn90]

Plays for this week include

Western KY - 7
Marshall - 1
Michigan St - 6.5

First two games go tonight. Watching one more line so may post a 4th game this week later on. Good luck.

[indiana]

LH/90........BOL tonight and this weekend.........indy

[Mr. IWS]

Michigan St - 6.5

Been looking at this one myself now that LJ Scott is playing.