Wild Card Weekend

[Chico1856]

The Detroit Lions get another crack at the Saints Saturday night as the biggest lined dog in the history of the wildcard round. The Lions lost by 14 in the first attempt in New Orleans, but will have the benfit of having DT Suh play this time, after missing the first game for being a Turkey on Thanksgiving. In that 1st go round however, Detroit did outgain the Saints 466 yards to 438, but the Lions suffered from 11 penalties for over 100 yards. The offense will have the opportunity to again move the ball against a poor Saints defense that ranks 30th in pass yards allowed, 29th in rush yard allowed/attempt.

The Saints will score in this game, and it looks like this game could be very high scoring (highest total in WC history), but like most games will come down to turnovers and converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns, versus having to settle for FGs. The Lions rank 4th in the NFL averaging 2.1 takeaways per game including a 5th best 21 INT's, and the Saints rank 31st with 1.0 takeaway per game. The Lions have been outstanding with scoring touchdowns in the red zone this year (4th in the NFL 63.79%), and has done even better over the last 3 weeks scoring on 84.62% of red zone possessions, and are going against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in Red Zone defense (58.97%) The Saints Redzone offense is outstanding as well (6th in NFL 58.67%), but the Lions defense is a bit better inside the 20, ranking 12th (49.06%).


I think gettin double digits on a talented team with a solid QB (97.2 QB rating, 103.8 or better in his final four games of the regular season), throwing to one of the best WR's in the league, with a statisticly better defense provides a lot of value, even against the likes of Drew Brees and the Saints offense.

2* Detroit Lions +11 (-115)
1* Lions ML +450

[Mr. IWS]

Woah. Gl on this one man, that is a ballsy play on that ML.

[Chico1856]

In another rematch from the regular season, the Bengals get another crack at Houston and 3rd string rookie QB TJ Yates, who is nursing a seperated non throwing shoulder, and is 1 big hit away from joining Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart on the sidelines. Houston has been able to play thru an unbelieveable amount of injuries this year, and defensively, have been outstanding ranking 2nd in defensive passer rating, and 2nd in the NFL in total defense. Both teams are likely to try and establish the run, to take the pressure off the young guys behind center.

Houston started out the year as a fast starting team, but as one would expect, since losing their first and second string QB's, that has changed, and over the last 3 games, the Texans are averaging 6.7 points per game in the first half, defensively Houston has allowed just 7.3 points per game, but over the last 3 weeks has allowed 13.3

Cincinnati's offense in the first half has been quite consistant, averaging 8.9 points per game (8.7 over L3), defensively they allow 11.4 points per game on the year, although in the last 3 games as they tried to make their playoff run, have tightened the belt, allowing 7.7 points per game.

The Bengals are playing with house money, backing into the playoffs after losing last week, and they were not expected by many outside of the locker room to make the postseason. In week 14 the Bengals were leading 16-3 in Game 1 at the half, I think we may see something similiar today, but with the playoffs here, and a pair of rookie qbs going against solid defenses, I expect the play calling to be conservative as these teams feel each other out early.

Cincinnati +3 (1st H) -110
Under 20 Cinci/Houston (1st H) -115

[Mr. IWS]

Just got on Cincy too man, GL today.

[RedHottG2]

[Chico1856]

0-4 -5.55

[Chico1856]

Dome teams playing outdoors in the playoffs is typically a tough spot for quarterbacks, and teams in general, but Matt Ryan played college ball at Boston College, and should not be as effected as some QB's, as he tries to get the monkey off his back and get a playoff road win against the NY Giants. Ryan has been playing well lately, throwing 15 TD's to just 1 INT in his last seven games. The Falcons have been one of the NFL's best 1st Half teams, scoring 14.7/ppg in the first half on the year (26.3 L3 games), the Giants have scored 11.1/ppg on the year (18th in NFL), and despite being the home team, the Giants this year do not seem to have any advantage, going just 4-4 SU.

With New York coming in off an emotional must win game against division rival Dallas, I like Atlanta to get out ahead early, using a more balanced attack, and a solid offensive line that can help negate the outstanding front of the Giants.

2* Atlanta 1st Half +1.5 (-115)

[Chico1856]

The Broncos have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, with a defensive passer rating of 93.12. In the history of the NFL, Fifty-six teams have allowed a Defensive Passer Rating of 93.0 or worse; the 2011 Broncos are just the third to reach the playoffs. Denver has played 4 games against playoff teams this year, going 4-0 to the over, allowing those teams to score an average of 39.25 points per game, and are going against a Steelers team that has gone over 17 of its last last 21 playoff games, and who's HC Mike Tomlin is 7-0 OVER in the playoffs. Playing any over, in January over the last 10 years, of 35 or less is 26-6 to the over.


Over 34 (-105) Pittsburgh/Denver

[Mr. IWS]

GL on the adds man, hope you bounce back today.