Championship Sunday

[Chico1856]

Truth be told I prefer this weekend to SuperBowl weekend. It's nice to think that there is another game left on the schedule.

AFC

Really looking forward to watching 2 teams battle strength against strength. The Patriots offense against the Ravens Defense. It is widely accepted that the Patriots will go as far as the arm of Tom Brady will carry them, and this year Brady has carried his team to a 13-3 record, and home field thru out the AFC Playoffs. A closer look at the Patriots, and you have to wonder just how good of a team, they actualy are. The Patriots did not beat a single winning team this year, and were 0-2 against quality opponents.

The Ravens are in this game after a regular season where they finished 12-4 battling a division that sent 3 teams to the postseason, and went 6-1 against quality opponents in the regular season. There were some road games where the Ravens looked poor, (Seattle, Tenn, Jacksonville, S Diego) and played to the level of their competition. 2 of those games came the week after playing the Steelers, and in the regular season, and the let down is almost expected. There is no reason to expect a similar letdown this week with so much on the line.

The Patriots offense has been electric this year, Tom Brady broke Dan Merino's passing record this year, but did so while playing soft defenses (only 4 games against top 10 defenses). Brady has needed to have such a great season, to offset just how poorly his defense has been. The defense of the Patriots has been horrific this year, so bad that the difference between Tom Bradys passing yards, and what the Defense allowed, was just +381 yards.

It very well could be a long day for Tom Brady, as he goes against one of the best defenses in the league (#1 in defensive passer rating, #4 in pass yards allowed), and a defense that has had good success in slowing him down in the past. In 5 games against Baltimore Tom Brady has thrown 6 TD's and 6 INT's, completed just 56.3 % of his passes, and has a QB rating of 77.9. (Brady has 96.4 lifetime QB rating). Running the ball against this defense will be an issue as well, the Ravens rank #2 in the NFL holding teams to 3.54 yards/rush and yds per game @ 92.6 yards per game. The Ravens defense performed well against Tight Ends this Year, allowing the second-fewest yards in the NFL to tight ends (665), the second-fewest touchdowns (3) and the sixth-fewest receptions (62). No tight end gained more than 73 yards against the defense this season. The Patriots do feature the Boston TE Party, but I am confident the Ravens will be up to the task.

Ray Rice is poised for a big day, the Patriots defense ranks 24th in def rush yards, allowing 4.62yds a rush, and 117 yards per game, which would open up Flacco to have success down the field, and thru play action, and the Ravens should be able to move the ball against New England, but they will need to get TD's, not FG's, and over their last 3 games have scored TD's on 80% of their Red Zone possessions, while New England has allowed TD's on 77.78% of possessions inside their 20 yard line over the last 3 games.

It will be interesting to see who will prevail on the other side of the ball in the Red Zone, as the Patriots rank #1 in Red Zone offense (TD's 66.67 % of the time), and Baltimore ranks #1 in Red Zone defense allowing 38.64% of possessions to become TD's, the Ravens have allowed just 5 Red Zone TD passes this season, so a lot will be decided by how well the fat guys on each team can perform. Baltimore has the edge in both, having the #1 ranked Defensive Hog Index, going against the Patriots O Hogs, who are ranked #7, and the Pats D Hogs ranked 25, against the Baltimore O Hogs, who are ranked # 2 in the league. Teams that feature the better Defensive Hogs are 37-15 at predicting playoff winners since 2007.

I like my chances to see Flacco defeat the immortal Tom Brady and lead Baltimore back to Indianapolis, and a chance to win a SuperBowl in the City that took their team away.

2* Baltimore +7.5 (+100)
1* Baltimore ML +275

[RedHottG2]

[Chico1856]

NFC


The NY Giants head out West, feeling a lot like the Super Bowl Championship team from a few years back, as their D Line has been able to give a much needed pass rush to help out a bad pass defense. The Giants are thought to have 3 areas in this game where they should have the edge. Experience, Quarterback, and their pass rush. There is no doubt that one can give the check mark to the Giants in experience. A closer look at the QB position may surprise you. Eli ranked 6th in the NFL this year in QR rating, at 92.87, Alex Smith, was 8th at 91.49. In fact, at home during the regular season Smith had a 99.8 QB rating (103.2 Last week). Alex Smith also has the advantage of a running game, and throwing against a Giants secondary that has struggled (20th in defensive passer rating, 29th in yardage), especially when unable to get pressure from their front 4, and field conditions look to be sloppy, this should negate some of the advantage that the Giants were hoping for from their defensive line, as gaining solid footing while trying to push past an offensive lineman, will be difficult.

Eli Manning on the other side, will face off against the #2 ranked defensive line, with a running attack that ranked dead last in the league, against the #1 ranked run defense, that not only stopped opposing running backs in their tracks (77.2 yards per game), but has knocked 7 starting RB's out of the game, 6 of which did not return. Eli will also have to try to pass on the 5th ranked team in defensive passer rating.

One of the biggest issues the 49ers had this year was Red Zone offense (29th ranked), but they have shown improvement, scoring TD's 60% of possessions over the last 3 games, and will be going against a 23rd ranked NY Giants Red Zone Defense, that allows TD's on 57.89% of Road game red zone possessions.

Too much attention given to the Giants, and not enough credit to a 49er team that has played excellent football all year. I think San Fran comes out with a huge chip on their shoulders and earns a trip to Indianapolis.

2* Niners -2 (-108)

[Mr. IWS]

On both of them too my man.

GL today.

[RedHottG2]

Great call on Ravens my man!