Trap games

[Luke]

I watch all the time as people load up on a "sure thing" in the NFL and then go down in smoke. In week 1 everyone loaded up on the Colts -10.5, NE -10, TB -3 , Giants +3.5 , Texans -4 and the Chiefs -3. Those bets went 1-5

So far in week two NE -11 was loaded up on and crashed hard to start the week off 0-1

Two other teams that are getting hit hard are the Saints -3 and Ravens -6.5 . I'm going to try and track this (until I get lazy) , but for now, I'd stay far away from those two games

[Mr. IWS]

Good shit man. I havent looked at any NFL yet, but ill start with this info.

[poopoo333]

On both Browns and Bucs.

I did this last season too (fading public on these "easy lines") and did pretty well.

[Luke]

Cleveland

hopefully TB does better

[Chico1856]

Philly, Baltimore, Indy, Chicago, N.O., Oak, Cinci all were at or above 70% according to vegasinsiders

[Luke]

Philly, Baltimore, Indy, Chicago, N.O., Oak, Cinci all were at or above 70% according to vegasinsiders

I'm cherry picking public favorites. All of them cant lose, I think

[Luke]

TB

[Luke]

Was going to add Cincy to this but didnt get here earlier. Told poopoo on twitter that the line was a complete overreaction to week 1


Pitt

[Luke]

Adding Eagles -3.5 (so the bet would be KC +3.5)

[Luke]

KC +3.5

[poopoo333]

From what I read the public was almost split on KC/Eagles? I might be wrong.


For Sunday I think the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Bears are the "traps". Public seems heavy on all four of those teams.

The Vikings seem to fall under that category too but I think that's the trap game that wins.

[Luke]

From what I read the public was almost split on KC/Eagles? I might be wrong.


For Sunday I think the Giants, Packers, Falcons, and Bears are the "traps". Public seems heavy on all four of those teams.

The Vikings seem to fall under that category too but I think that's the trap game that wins.

Action wasnt even close to 50/50 on Philly-KC. Where did you here such?

[Chico1856]

Vegasinsider showed 58% ATS/60% ML on Eagles

Covers had just over 54% on Philly, pickmonitor had more users on KC than Philly


Interested as to where your % come from Luke, not denying, but always looking for more resources

[Luke]

Straight from a bookmaker . And I'm not going by percents, I'm going by lopsided money. A game might have 50/50 bets on it but still may have 90/10 money on one side.

[Chico1856]

I fully understand how % work. Is this bookmaker a "local" ? If so, his location and size of operation must be factored in. Where is he put of ?