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I had a another winning Sunday going 2-1 record. With a 13-10-1 record YTD, I am painfully grinding it out for slightly profitable NFL season thus far. I am going to see if I can put more distance between my profitability and breaking even with tonight’s Monday Night Match-up.
I looked through my numbers, calculated the Sagarin Ratings and I see that the Chargers should be around a 4-point home dog. After I look a bit closer, everything I look at says Colts.
Unfortunately, it looks like most everyone else is thinking the same as me, which usually scares me.
Colts Offense Vs Chargers Defense
The first thing I noticed when working my numbers is that the Colts’ offense is much more balanced than most of the Chargers other opponents. At least by the numbers. That could help Indianapolis against a less than stellar San Diego Defense.
When I looked at the match-up between the Colts running game versus the Chargers run defense I see a definite edge for the Colts.
While the Colts average around 5 more rushes per game than the Chargers are used to seeing, the Chargers are also allowing opposing rushers 4.9 yards per rush. By the way, Indianapolis is averaging 4.7 yards per rush.
After seeing an obvious advantage for the Indianapolis in therushing game, I look at the passing match up and find another advantage. The Chargers pass defense to allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 70% of their pass attempts – 69.8% to be exact. If you look at the last three games, that number is 70.1%.
I like Luck as a quarterback and he shouldn’t have much of a problem passing on the 27th ranked pass defense.
Chargers Offense Vs Colts Defense
When looking at this match-up, I was trying to find a reason to make this a no play. After all 2-1 is better than 2-2. But on the other hand 3-1 is better than both.
Well, I couldn’t find anything that tells me not to play this game.
I already mentioned that the Chargers run defense isn’t very good. Well, the Colts aren’t all that great either. I am not the biggest Ryan Mathews fan, who is probable for tonights game after sustaining a concussion last week, but he should be able to find some holes to run through against a Colts defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush.
However, even though the Chargers might eclipse their game average in rushing yards, by my calculations, it probably won’t exceed the 129 ypg the Colts are already surrendering while maintaining a 4-1 record. Because of this, I find this match-up a wash.
So let’s look at the last match-up: Chargers passing offense versus the Colts passing defense. Phillip Rivers is completing 73.7% of his passes this season while the Colts are only allowing a 56.9% completion rate.
Obviously something is going to have to give, and I am leaning towards the Colts pass defense. Will they shut Rivers down completely? Hell No! But I do expect them to slow him down a bit. And when defenses give Rivers fits, he makes mistakes and gets out of his game. And it is that reason why I am giving the edge to the Colts defense here.
Turnover Differential
One more aspect to look at before the game is turnover differential. On the face of it, there is a huge discrepancy with Indianapolis enjoying a +6 differential and San Diego wallowing with a deficit of 8.
But that -8 for the Chargers is a little inflated because of the 5 turnovers last week against the Raiders where Rivers threw three interceptions. If you take last week out of it, the Colts are still on the plus side while the Chargers are still seeing a deficit. It is this number that leads me to going with the Colts and their pass defense as I think they will give Rivers some fits.
I had a another winning Sunday going 2-1 record. With a 13-10-1 record YTD, I am painfully grinding it out for slightly profitable NFL season thus far. I am going to see if I can put more distance between my profitability and breaking even with tonight’s Monday Night Match-up.
I looked through my numbers, calculated the Sagarin Ratings and I see that the Chargers should be around a 4-point home dog. After I look a bit closer, everything I look at says Colts.
Unfortunately, it looks like most everyone else is thinking the same as me, which usually scares me.
Colts Offense Vs Chargers Defense
The first thing I noticed when working my numbers is that the Colts’ offense is much more balanced than most of the Chargers other opponents. At least by the numbers. That could help Indianapolis against a less than stellar San Diego Defense.
When I looked at the match-up between the Colts running game versus the Chargers run defense I see a definite edge for the Colts.
While the Colts average around 5 more rushes per game than the Chargers are used to seeing, the Chargers are also allowing opposing rushers 4.9 yards per rush. By the way, Indianapolis is averaging 4.7 yards per rush.
After seeing an obvious advantage for the Indianapolis in therushing game, I look at the passing match up and find another advantage. The Chargers pass defense to allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 70% of their pass attempts – 69.8% to be exact. If you look at the last three games, that number is 70.1%.
I like Luck as a quarterback and he shouldn’t have much of a problem passing on the 27th ranked pass defense.
Chargers Offense Vs Colts Defense
When looking at this match-up, I was trying to find a reason to make this a no play. After all 2-1 is better than 2-2. But on the other hand 3-1 is better than both.
Well, I couldn’t find anything that tells me not to play this game.
I already mentioned that the Chargers run defense isn’t very good. Well, the Colts aren’t all that great either. I am not the biggest Ryan Mathews fan, who is probable for tonights game after sustaining a concussion last week, but he should be able to find some holes to run through against a Colts defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush.
However, even though the Chargers might eclipse their game average in rushing yards, by my calculations, it probably won’t exceed the 129 ypg the Colts are already surrendering while maintaining a 4-1 record. Because of this, I find this match-up a wash.
So let’s look at the last match-up: Chargers passing offense versus the Colts passing defense. Phillip Rivers is completing 73.7% of his passes this season while the Colts are only allowing a 56.9% completion rate.
Obviously something is going to have to give, and I am leaning towards the Colts pass defense. Will they shut Rivers down completely? Hell No! But I do expect them to slow him down a bit. And when defenses give Rivers fits, he makes mistakes and gets out of his game. And it is that reason why I am giving the edge to the Colts defense here.
Turnover Differential
One more aspect to look at before the game is turnover differential. On the face of it, there is a huge discrepancy with Indianapolis enjoying a +6 differential and San Diego wallowing with a deficit of 8.
But that -8 for the Chargers is a little inflated because of the 5 turnovers last week against the Raiders where Rivers threw three interceptions. If you take last week out of it, the Colts are still on the plus side while the Chargers are still seeing a deficit. It is this number that leads me to going with the Colts and their pass defense as I think they will give Rivers some fits.
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