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I have to admit that Munoz has looked a lot better recently than I had given him credit for. Watching his old fights at LHW, I used to consider him a prime example of NCAA wrestlers not being able to use their wrestling in MMA. I couldn't imagine him resisting Maia's takedowns for a whole fight, but he did.
But even granting him this, I think he needs to be considered a serious underdog against Sonnen. In comparing the performance of both guys against Okami for example, Chael comes out far ahead. Since 2004, Chael hasn't lost (or even come close to losing) except by submission, and Munoz has yet to submit anyone. He doesn't even try often.Comment
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It's worth noting that he did go for the sub against Maia and it looked pretty tight for a second there. What's wierd about Munoz is he resisted Maia's takedowns but got clinch-tripped by Leben at least twice(it might have been three times). He has great scrambles though, and he's hard to keep down at least to this point. I just don't see how he avoids Sonnen's takedowns when almost nobody in two different weight classes has been able to do that.I have to admit that Munoz has looked a lot better recently than I had given him credit for. Watching his old fights at LHW, I used to consider him a prime example of NCAA wrestlers not being able to use their wrestling in MMA. I couldn't imagine him resisting Maia's takedowns for a whole fight, but he did.
But even granting him this, I think he needs to be considered a serious underdog against Sonnen. In comparing the performance of both guys against Okami for example, Chael comes out far ahead. Since 2004, Chael hasn't lost (or even come close to losing) except by submission, and Munoz has yet to submit anyone. He doesn't even try often.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Yeah, he's always had good scrambles. But even if he does manage to avoid Sonnen's TD attempts or get back to his feet quickly, is he going to win the fight on the feet? Maybe he can land that big KO punch, but I doubt it.Comment
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Oh I didn't say he would win on the feet, but I do like his chances at a standup war better than a pure grappling matchup. I just think Sonnen has adapted his wrestling to MMA alot better than Munoz has. Munoz is still a high level wrestler but he tends to get himself caught in predicaments for a high level wrestler.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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I think Munoz wasn't worried if Leben got him down because he knew he would be able to get back up quickly. Not worrying about the takedown allowed him to open up more on the feet.It's worth noting that he did go for the sub against Maia and it looked pretty tight for a second there. What's wierd about Munoz is he resisted Maia's takedowns but got clinch-tripped by Leben at least twice(it might have been three times). He has great scrambles though, and he's hard to keep down at least to this point. I just don't see how he avoids Sonnen's takedowns when almost nobody in two different weight classes has been able to do that.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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It is obvious to me that you guys are all just racists.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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About as close as Rashad/Tito was. Davis doesn't have the best shot and his striking is way behind Rashads. I think Evans outblacks the other Jon Jones.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Davis has a lot of reach on Rashad though. I think it is close as well, but I will be on Davis there.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Where do you guys see the line going? I like Evans in this fight quite a bit but I'm not goin to big because Davis could easily come out very improved.Comment
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I don't think it will move much at all to be honest...the last time this fight was announced and had odds out it was around the current line the entire time.Comment

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