2012 Parlay

[poopoo333]

OP updated...good job Scientist

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks. Rolling along... i
Will definitely get to 3k, hoping for 4k now.

[Vandelay]

Threw not ellenberger by sub into my 1k rolling parlay.

[Ludo]

Vitor is out of the Wanderlei fight, cancel My rolling parlay bet on him.

[poopoo333]

Done. What is the next Ludo Lock?

[Ludo]

Gray Maynard -400 6.514u to win 1.628u

[MMA_scientist]

What do we think about Not Ellenberger to sub Kampmann? Kampmann has never been subbed. Ellenberger does have 2 submissions early on his career. I think Ellenberger will be coming to grapple, which is the only worrisome aspect... but Kampmann has survived some pretty daunting submission guys in there, I would be surprised if Ellenberger was able to accomplish what Leites, Shields, Thiago, and Condit couldn't.

I already dropped $550 on it @ -1400, just because I think the line will move a lot. Considering unloading the full monty on it.

[poopoo333]

I don't know if Ellenberger will be coming to grapple. Yesterday on the MMA Hour he pretty much dismissed the notion of coming in to grapple and said he was going to go in there and beat Kampmann on the feet. I am paraphrasing but he basically shrugged off any idea that he will be going in there and wrestling Kampmann to a decision. Maybe Vandelay heard it too.

I don't think Ellenberger will sub Kampmann. I actually think Kampmann is going to win.

[MMA_scientist]

Obviously I don't think he WILL sub Kampmann... but for these types of plays, the question is CAN he sub Kampmann? I am going to let it roll though... screw it.

$2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.

[poopoo333]

Aren't you off by $10? Or did I do my math wrong..?

[MMA_scientist]

2279 / 14.45 = 157.71. I didn't take it out the .01... I am only off by a penny.

[Ludo]

Obviously I don't think he WILL sub Kampmann... but for these types of plays, the question is CAN he sub Kampmann? I am going to let it roll though... screw it.

$2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.

I don't think Ellenberger can sub Kampmann unless there are some extenuating circumstances like Ellenberger hurting Kampmann bad and Martin dives for a halfassed takedown and gets caught in a guillotine, but I'm not seeing it as very likely. Kampmann has fought better grapplers with better submissions before.

[poopoo333]

2279 / 14.45 = 157.71. I didn't take it out the .01... I am only off by a penny.

No, I mean:

MMA Scientist:
$1500 to win $158 on Not Evans by submission
$1658 to win $121 on Not Condit subs Diaz/Not Pierce subs Koscheck/not Nelson subs Werdum
$1779 to win $93.77 on Not Ellenberger to sub Sanchez
$1872 to win $187 on Not Akiyama to sub Shields/Not Boetch to sub Okami/Not Bart to sub Hioki
$700 to win $37.23 on Not Alves to sub Kampmann
$2096 to win $141.49 on Not Koscheck to sub Hendricks
$1200 to win $52 on Not JDS by sub/not Herman by sub.
$2279 to win $157.70 on Not Ellenberger by submission.
Running total: $2,289.72($1500 beginning bankroll)

I thought you would need $2,289.72, not $2,279. Just wanna make sure I got it right

[MMA_scientist]

Oh. Well I only bet 2279... I just misread the total. But that is what I bet.

[poopoo333]

Oh. Well I only bet 2279... I just misread the total. But that is what I bet.

Reported.